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L. J. Drew

Publications and source records attributed to L. J. Drew.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS1992

The study of the undiscovered mineral resources of the Tongass National Forest and adjacent lands, Southeastern Alaska

The quantitative probabilistic assessment of the undiscovered mineral resources of the 17.1-million-acre Tongass National Forest (the largest in the United States) and its adjacent lands is a nonaggregated, mineral-resource-tract-oriented assessment designed for land-planning purposes. As such, it includes the renewed use of gross-in-place values (GIPV's) in dollars of the estimated amounts of metal contained in the undiscovered resources as a measure for land-use planning. Southeastern Alaska is geologically complex and contains a wide variety of known mineral deposits, some of which have produced important amounts of metals during the past 100 years. Regional geological, economic geological, geochemical, geophysical, and mineral exploration history information for the region was integrated to define 124 tracts likely to contain undiscovered mineral resources. Some tracts were judged to contain more than one type of mineral deposit. Each type of deposit may contain one or more metallic elements of economic interest. For tracts where information was sufficient, the minimum number of as-yet-undiscovered deposits of each type was estimated at probability levels of 0.95, 0.90, 0.50, 0.10, and 0.05. The undiscovered mineral resources of the individual tracts were estimated using the U.S. Geological Survey's MARK3 mineral-resource endowment simulator; those estimates were used to calculate GIPV's for the individual tracts. Those GIPV's were aggregated to estimate the value of the undiscovered mineral resources of southeastern Alaska. The aggregated GIPV of the estimates is $40.9 billion. Analysis of this study indicates that (1) there is only a crude positive correlation between the size of individual tracts and their mean GIPV's: and (2) the number of mineral-deposit types in a tract does not dominate the GIPV's of the tracts, but the inferred presence of synorogenic-synvolcanic nickel-copper, porphyry copper skarn-related, iron skarn, and porphyry copper-molybdenum deposits does. The influence of this study on the U.S. Forest Service planning process is yet to be determined. ?? 1992 Oxford University Press.

Nonrenewable Resources↗
USGS1991

Geology of the Bayan Obo iron-rare-earth-niobium deposits, Inner Mongolia, China

The plate tectonic setting, regional geology, and certain aspects of the economic geology of the iron-rare-earth-niobium ore bodies at Bayan Obo, Inner Mongolia, China, were studied by a team of geologists from the Tianjin Geologic Research Academy and the U.S. Geological Survey between 1987 and 1989. These ore bodies were formed by hydrothermal replacement of Middle Proterozoic dolomite in an intracontinental rift setting. A variety of veins and/or dikes that have a carbonatite-like mineralogy cut the footwall clastic rocks and migmatites. The hanging wall is a shale that has been converted to a K-metasomatite and has microcrystalline potassium feldspar as its principal constituent. This shale served as a scaling caprock that contained the chemical solutions that reacted with the dolomite and created the enormous concentration of mineralized rock in an 18-kilometer-long syncline. The rocks that host these ore bodies and the associated mineralized areas occur today as roof pendants in granitoid rocks of Permian age.

Conference Paper↗
USGS1989

Undiscovered lode tin resources of the Seward Peninsula, Alaska

The United States is a net importer of many important minerals, including tin. Consumption of primary tin in the United States is about 36,000 metric tons per year. Identified U.S. tin resources consist of about 40,000 metric tons. Although such figures provide insight about vulnerability to supply disruptions in the short term, they do not provide information about the potential of a country to meet its needs for a commodity from undiscovered domestic sources. Recent developments, including the preparation of models of mineral deposits and their grades and tonnages, and the application of computer simulation techniques to the estimation of metallic mineral resources, make it possible to estimate the magnitude of undiscovered resources, by deposit type, for relatively small areas such as the Seward Peninsula. This paper uses these developments and geophysical data to estimate undiscovered lode tin resources on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska. The assessment is based on a three-step methodology that (1) identifies the types of tin deposits that may be present in the region, (2) identifies the geophysical characteristics of unroofed granites and shallow granitoids, and (3) estimates, on the basis of various combinations of geologic and geophysical conditions, the number of undiscovered deposits present within or near exposed or concealed granite plutons. Computer simulation was used to combine the estimates of the number of deposits with available grade and tonnage models. Simulation experiments were designed to estimate the amount of tin in undiscovered deposits under a variety of limiting conditions. Results of simulation experiments indicate there is a 90 percent chance that the Seward Peninsula contains at least 51,000 metric tons, a 50 percent chance that it contains at least 390,000 metric tons, and a 10 percent chance it contains at least 1,100,000 metric tons of tin in undiscovered greisen, vein, and replacement deposits that have average grades of at least 0.5 percent tin.

Economic Geology↗
USGS1988

Observed oil and gas field size distributions: A consequence of the discovery process and prices of oil and gas

If observed oil and gas field size distributions are obtained by random samplings, the fitted distributions should approximate that of the parent population of oil and gas fields. However, empirical evidence strongly suggests that larger fields tend to be discovered earlier in the discovery process than they would be by random sampling. Economic factors also can limit the number of small fields that are developed and reported. This paper examines observed size distributions in state and federal waters of offshore Texas. Results of the analysis demonstrate how the shape of the observable size distributions change with significant hydrocarbon price changes. Comparison of state and federal observed size distributions in the offshore area shows how production cost differences also affect the shape of the observed size distribution. Methods for modifying the discovery rate estimation procedures when economic factors significantly affect the discovery sequence are presented. A primary conclusion of the analysis is that, because hydrocarbon price changes can significantly affect the observed discovery size distribution, one should not be confident about inferring the form and specific parameters of the parent field size distribution from the observed distributions. ?? 1988 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Mathematical Geology↗
USGS1986

Quantitative estimation of undiscovered mineral resources: A case study of US Forest Service Wilderness tracts in the Pacific Mountain system

The need by land managers and planners for more quantitative measures of mineral values has prompted scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey to test a probabilistic method of mineral resource assessment on a portion of the wilderness lands that have been studied by the Survey during the past 20 years. A quantitative estimate of undiscovered mineral resources is made by linking the techniques of subjective estimation, geologic mineral deposit models, and Monte Carlo simulation. The study, which uses grade-tonnage and occurrence models for 21 geologic deposit types, considers 91 U.S. Forest Service wilderness tracts in California, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington. Estimates of the amounts of the 11 metals contained in undiscovered mineral deposits of the types studied range from negligible to several years of U.S. consumption. Although these estimates are limited to metals contained in undiscovered deposits of a small number of metallic mineral deposit types, the assessment procedure can be expanded by the use of additional deposit models and by using information about identified mineral resources. This will allow models of economic processes such as exploration, development, and production to be applied.

Economic Geology↗
USGS1985

Lognormal field size distributions as a consequence of economic truncation

The assumption of lognormal (parent) field size distributions has for a long time been applied to resource appraisal and evaluation of exploration strategy by the petroleum industry. However, frequency distributions estimated with observed data and used to justify this hypotheses are conditional. Examination of various observed field size distributions across basins and over time shows that such distributions should be regarded as the end result of an economic filtering process. Commercial discoveries depend on oil and gas prices and field development costs. Some new fields are eliminated due to location, depths, or water depths. This filtering process is called economic truncation. Economic truncation may occur when predictions of a discovery process are passed through an economic appraisal model. We demonstrate that (1) economic resource appraisals, (2) forecasts of levels of petroleum industry activity, and (3) expected benefits of developing and implementing cost reducing technology are sensitive to assumptions made about the nature of that portion of (parent) field size distribution subject to economic truncation. ?? 1985 Plenum Publishing Corporation.

Journal of the International Association for Mathe↗
USGS1985

The copper-nickel concentration log: A tool for stratigraphic interpretation within the ultramafic and basal zones of the stillwater complex, Montana

An analogue to the electric well log was devised for copper-nickel concentration drill-hole data from the Basal and lower part of the Ultramafic zones of the Stillwater Complex using automated data processing. The copper-nickel concentration logs graphically represent intensity (concentration) values that reflect the distribution of the elements in sulfide and silicate minerals. Four major patterns are recognized by their characteristic variations in copper and nickel intensity: (1) relatively flat, low-level copper-intensity signatures associated with arcuate nickel-intensity patterns that correlate with rocks in the Peridotite member of the Ultramafic zone; (2) arcuate or bulb-like patterns of copper and nickel intensity that correlate closely with the Basal bronzite cumulate member of the Basal zone; (3) complex patterns consisting of intervals of low-intensity copper and moderate-intensity nickel, spikes of high nickel and copper intensity, and high copper intensity associated with low nickel intensity that correlate respectively with cordierite-pyroxene hornfels, massive sulfide, norites and mineralized diabase dikes in the Basal norite member; and (4) large intervals of extremely low copper and nickel intensity that correlate with quartz-orthopyroxene hornfels. The recognition and interpretation of these patterns allow two- and three-dimensional stratigraphic and lithologic reconstructions to be done by means of concentration-log correlations instead of variable quality lithologic logging.

Journal of Geochemical Exploration↗
USGS1984

Offshore exploration and industry change: The case of the Gulf of Mexico

This paper considers industry structure and the exploration performance (by size class of operator) of firms searching for oil and gas in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. It also tracks the changes in industry structure that have occurred in response to a decline in the quality of remaining prospects in the area. Data presented indicate that because vertically integrated majors dominated in exploration in the early years of the Gulf of Mexico exploration history, they were able to discover 86% of the total hydrocarbons discovered through 1975. However, the data also show a dynamic relationship between the structure of the industry operating in an area and the quality of remaining prospects. The relative share of both credited discoveries and wildcat wells of nonmajor operators has increased as exploration in the gulf proceeded. For example, in state-owned waters from 1951 to 1955, major inns accounted for 85% of all wildcat wells drilled, whereas from 1971 to 1975 these firms accounted for only 30% of the wildcat wells. During these same two periods in the federal Gulf of Mexico, the majors' share of wildcats fell from 98% to 70%.

Journal of Petroleum Technology↗
USGS1983

A procedure to estimate the parent population of the size of oil and gas fields as revealed by a study of economic truncation

An estimation technique has been derived to predict the number of small fields in a geologic play or basin. Historically, many small oil and gas fields went unreported because they were not economical. This led to an underestimation of the number of undiscovered small fields. A study of the distributions of reported oil and gas fields in well-explored areas suggests that the large fields when grouped into log base 2 size classes are geometrically distributed. Further, the number of small fields reported is a function of the cost of exploration and development. Thus, the population field-size distribution is conjectured to be log geometric in form. ?? 1983 Plenum Publishing Corporation.

Journal of the International Association for Mathe↗
USGS1980

A three-dimensional model to predict future oil discoveries in spatially connected multiple plays

A discovery-process model that had been devised previously to estimate the size distribution of oil and gas fields remaining to be discovered in a single producing horizon was adapted to a basin containing spatially connected multiple plays and producing horizons. This model used the concept of the area of influence of wells to estimate search effort. Other variables estimated from the historical drilling and discovery data are the effective basin size and the exploration-drilling efficiency. Data from the Midland Basin are used to illustrate how the model works. ?? 1980 Plenum Publishing Corporation.

Journal of the International Association for Mathe↗
USGS1980

Computational methods for a three-dimensional model of the petroleum-discovery process

A discovery-process model devised by Drew, Schuenemeyer, and Root can be used to predict the amount of petroleum to be discovered in a basin from some future level of exploratory effort: the predictions are based on historical drilling and discovery data. Because marginal costs of discovery and production are a function of field size, the model can be used to make estimates of future discoveries within deposit size classes. The modeling approach is a geometric one in which the area searched is a function of the size and shape of the targets being sought. A high correlation is assumed between the surface-projection area of the fields and the volume of petroleum. To predict how much oil remains to be found, the area searched must be computed, and the basin size and discovery efficiency must be estimated. The basin is assumed to be explored randomly rather than by pattern drilling. The model may be used to compute independent estimates of future oil at different depth intervals for a play involving multiple producing horizons. We have written FORTRAN computer programs that are used with Drew, Schuenemeyer, and Root's model to merge the discovery and drilling information and perform the necessary computations to estimate undiscovered petroleum. These program may be modified easily for the estimation of remaining quantities of commodities other than petroleum. ?? 1980.

Computers & Geosciences↗
USGS1979

Pattern drilling exploration: Optimum pattern types and hole spacings when searching for elliptical shaped targets

In this study the selection of the optimum type of drilling pattern to be used when exploring for elliptical shaped targets is examined. The rhombic pattern is optimal when the targets are known to have a preferred orientation. Situations can also be found where a rectangular pattern is as efficient as the rhombic pattern. A triangular or square drilling pattern should be used when the orientations of the targets are unknown. The way in which the optimum hole spacing varies as a function of (1) the cost of drilling, (2) the value of the targets, (3) the shape of the targets, (4) the target occurrence probabilities was determined for several examples. Bayes' rule was used to show how target occurrence probabilities can be revised within a multistage pattern drilling scheme. ?? 1979 Plenum Publishing Corporation.

Journal of the International Association for Mathe↗
USGS1977

An exploratory drilling exhaustion sequence plot program

The exhaustion sequence plot program computes the conditional area of influence for wells in a specified rectangular region with respect to a fixed-size deposit. The deposit is represented by an ellipse whose size is chosen by the user. The area of influence may be displayed on computer printer plots consisting of a maximum of 10,000 grid points. At each point, a symbol is presented that indicates the probability of that point being exhausted by nearby wells with respect to a fixed-size ellipse. This output gives a pictorial view of the manner in which oil fields are exhausted. In addition, the exhaustion data may be used to estimate the number of deposits remaining in a basin. ?? 1977.

Computers & Geosciences↗
USGS1977

Field expectations and the determination of wildcat drilling

There is currently some dissatisfaction with macroeconomic approaches to modeling the supply of domestic crude oil. One problem that has been pointed out is that the estimated supply responses of new discoveries brought about by price increases appear to be unrealistically high. Because data frequently used in these models are highly aggregated over time and include diverse geologic regions, this criticism may not be unwarranted. Moreover, with highly aggregated data testable hypotheses relating to operator behavior at the field level are limited. Because of the somewhat decentralized nature of firm decision making, operator field behavior significantly affects the wildcat drilling rate and hence the interarrival times, i.e., temporal sequence, of expected discoveries.

Southern Economic Journal↗