Geology topics

Kyle R. Anderson

Publications and source records attributed to Kyle R. Anderson.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2022

Earthquake-derived seismic velocity changes during the 2018 caldera collapse of Kīlauea volcano

The 2018 Kīlauea caldera collapse produced extraordinary sequences of seismicity and deformation, with 62 episodic collapse events which significantly altered the landscape of the summit region. Despite decades of focused scientific studies at Kīlauea, detailed information about the internal structure of the volcano is limited. Recently developed techniques in seismic interferometry can be used to monitor the internal structure of an active volcano more directly by detecting subtle spatiotemporal changes in seismic wave velocity, but their utility relies on accurate interpretations of the underlying phenomena causing those velocity changes. Here, we retrospectively apply repeating-earthquake-based seismic interferometry to the 2018 Kīlauea eruption sequence. We find that seismic velocities changed over two distinct time scales: a sudden increase followed by a slower decrease in velocity in the hours following each collapse event, and a gradual, long-term decrease in velocity over several weeks that ceased approximately 1 month prior to the end of the eruption. Modeling suggests that short-term changes can be explained by magma reservoir pressurization which specifically closed vertical ring fractures. Long-term changes are related to subsidence of the caldera and likely include the influence of inelastic strain from the formation of new fractures. These observations provide new insights into the evolution of Kīlauea during its progressive collapse and will inform future interpretations for near-real-time monitoring at hazardous volcanoes around the world using similar techniques, especially where a dominant fracture orientation is present.

Hawaii↗

USGS2022

Rainfall an unlikely trigger of Kilauea’s 2018 rift eruption

If volcanic eruptions could be forecast from the occurrence of some external process, it might be possible to better mitigate risk and protect lives and livelihoods. Farquharson and Amelung 1 suggested that the 2018 lower East Rift Zone (ERZ) eruption of Kīlauea Volcano—the most destructive eruption in Hawai‘i in at least 200 years 2 —was triggered by extreme precipitation, which caused increased pore pressure that resulted in mechanical weakening of the volcano. Here we argue that Kīlauea’s 2018 eruption was instead caused by significant pre-eruptive pressurization, that pre-eruptive rainfall was not extreme, and that there is no significant correlation between rain and eruptions at Kīlauea. Understanding the causal mechanisms of volcanic eruptions is vital for hazard assessment and mitigation, and misattribution may compromise monitoring, preparedness, communication and response efforts.

Hawaii↗

USGS2021

A decade of geodetic change at Kīlauea’s summit—Observations, interpretations, and unanswered questions from studies of the 2008–2018 Halemaʻumaʻu eruption

On March 19, 2008, a small explosion heralded the onset of an extraordinary eruption at the summit of Kīlauea Volcano. The following 10 years provided unprecedented access to an actively circulating lava lake located within a region monitored by numerous geodetic tools, including Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), tilt, and gravity. These datasets revealed a range of processes occurring on widely different timescales. Over years, pressure change within the summit magmatic system, determined from ground deformation and lava-lake surface height, seems to have been governed by broad variations in the rate of magma supply from the mantle to the volcano’s shallow magmatic system, as well as changes in the efficiency of East Rift Zone (ERZ) magma transport and eruption. Over weeks to months, intrusions at the summit and along the ERZ, where new eruptive vents commonly formed and intrusions were primed by extension from south-flank motion, were a result of short-term increases in magma supply or waning lava effusion from the ERZ. Waning lava effusion caused magma to back up behind the ERZ eruptive vent all the way to the summit. ERZ intrusions and eruptions caused rapid depressurization of the summit magmatic system, whereas summit intrusions resulted in complex deformation patterns as magma moved to and from two main sub-caldera storage areas. Over hours to days, pressure changes were caused by episodic deflation-inflation (DI) events and possibly small summit intrusions, and deformation of the rim of the summit eruptive vent revealed instabilities that indicated an increased potential for collapse and minor explosive activity. Finally, over timescales of minutes to hours, gas pistoning, summit explosions, very-long-period seismic events, and even the airborne eruptive plume had clear manifestations in geodetic datasets, providing insights into the causes and consequences of those processes. The diversity and quantity of geodetic observations shed important light on this exceptional and well-documented decade-long summit eruption and its accompanying phenomena, yet numerous questions remain about the causal mechanisms, physical processes, and magmatic conditions associated with eruptive and intrusive activity.

Hawaii↗

USGS2021

Multidisciplinary constraints on magma compressibility, the pre-eruptive exsolved volatile fraction, and the H2O/CO2 molar ratio for the 2006 Augustine eruption, Alaska

Geodetically modeled reservoir volume changes during volcanic eruptions are commonly much smaller than the observed eruptive volumes. This discrepancy is thought to be partially due to the compressibility of magma, which is largely controlled by the presence of exsolved volatiles. The 2006 eruption of Augustine Volcano, Alaska, produced an eruptive volume that was ∼3 times larger than the geodetically estimated syn-eruptive subsurface volume change. In this study, we use a multistep methodology that combines constraints from geodetic, volcanic gas, geologic, and petrologic data together with equations relating physical processes to observable parameters. We apply a Monte Carlo approach to quantify uncertainties. Ultimately, we solve for the exsolved volatile volume fraction and the magma compressibility. We estimate Augustine's 2006 pre-eruptive exsolved volatile phase to be ∼5.5 vol% of the magma at storage depths, yielding a bulk magma compressibility of ∼3.8 × 10 −10 Pa −1 . We develop a novel approach to estimate the H 2 O/CO 2 ratio of the syn-eruptive gas emissions in the absence of direct H 2 O emission measurements which are hard to obtain due to the high background levels in ambient air. We find a best-fit H 2 O/CO 2 molar ratio of 29. We also investigate the effects of applying different equations of state to our model. We find that the Ideal Gas Law might be used as a first approximation due to its simplicity; however, it overestimates volatile density and compressibility significantly at storage depths. This project capitalizes on the insights that can be gained by integrating multidisciplinary data with models of physical processes.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Repeating caldera collapse events constrain fault friction at the kilometer scale

Fault friction is central to understanding earthquakes, yet laboratory rock mechanics experiments are restricted to, at most, meter scale. Questions thus remain as to the applicability of measured frictional properties to faulting in situ. In particular, the slip-weakening distance d c "> d c dc strongly influences precursory slip during earthquake nucleation, but scales with fault roughness and is challenging to extrapolate to nature. The 2018 eruption of K̄ılauea volcano, Hawaii, caused 62 repeatable collapse events in which the summit caldera dropped several meters, accompanied by M W "> M W MW 4.7 to 5.4 very long period (VLP) earthquakes. Collapses were exceptionally well recorded by global positioning system (GPS) and tilt instruments and represent unique natural kilometer-scale friction experiments. We model a piston collapsing into a magma reservoir. Pressure at the piston base and shear stress on its margin, governed by rate and state friction, balance its weight. Downward motion of the piston compresses the underlying magma, driving flow to the eruption. Monte Carlo estimation of unknowns validates laboratory friction parameters at the kilometer scale, including the magnitude of steady-state velocity weakening. The absence of accelerating precollapse deformation constrains d c "> d c dc to be ≤ 10 "> ≤ 10 ≤10 mm, potentially much less. These results support the use of laboratory friction laws and parameters for modeling earthquakes. We identify initial conditions and material and magma-system parameters that lead to episodic caldera collapse, revealing that small differences in eruptive vent elevation can lead to major differences in eruption volume and duration. Most historical basaltic caldera collapses were, at least partly, episodic, implying that the conditions for stick–slip derived here are commonly met in nature.

Hawaii↗

USGS2021

Evaluating the state-of-the-art in remote volcanic eruption characterization Part I: Raikoke volcano, Kuril Islands

Raikoke, a small, unmonitored volcano in the Kuril Islands, erupted in June 2019. We integrate data from satellites (including Sentinel-2, TROPOMI, MODIS, Himawari-8), the International Monitoring System (IMS) infrasound network, and global lightning detection network (GLD360) with information from local authorities and social media to retrospectively characterize the eruptive sequence and improve understanding of the pre-, syn- and post- eruptive behavior. We observe six infrasound pulses beginning on 21 June at 17:49:55 UTC as well as the main Plinian phase on 21 June at 22:29 UTC. Each pulse is tracked in space and time using lightning and satellite imagery as the plumes drift eastward. Post-eruption visible satellite imagery shows expansion of the island's surface area, an increase in crater size, and a possibly-linked algal bloom south of the island. We use thermal satellite imagery and plume modeling to estimate plume height at 10–12 km asl and 1.5–2 × 106 kg/s mass eruption rate. Remote infrasound data provide insight into syn-eruptive changes in eruption intensity. Our analysis illustrates the value of interdisciplinary analyses of remote data to illuminate eruptive processes. However, our inability to identify deformation, pre-eruptive outgassing, and thermal signals, which may reflect the relatively short duration (~12 h) of the eruption and minimal land area around the volcano and/or the character of closed-system eruptions, highlights current limitations in the application of remote sensing for eruption detection and characterization.

Hokkaido, Sakhalin Oblast↗

USGS2021

Evaluating the state-of-the-art in remote volcanic eruption characterization Part II: Ulawun volcano, Papua New Guinea

Retrospective eruption characterization is valuable for advancing our understanding of volcanic systems and evaluating our observational capabilities, especially with remote technologies (defined here as a space-borne system or non-local, ground-based instrumentation which include regional and remote infrasound sensors). In June 2019, the open-system Ulawun volcano, Papua New Guinea, produced a VEI 4 eruption. We combined data from satellites (including Sentinel-2, TROPOMI, MODIS, Himawari-8), the International Monitoring System infrasound network, and GLD360 globally detected lightning with information from the local authorities and social media to characterize the pre-, syn - and post-eruptive behaviour. The Rabaul Volcano Observatory recorded ~24 h of seismicity and detected SO 2 emissions ~16 h before the visually-documented start of the Plinian phase on 26 June at 04:20 UTC. Infrasound and SO 2 detections suggest the eruption started during the night on 24 June 2019 at 10:39 UTC ~38 h before ash detections with a gas-dominated jetting phase. Local reports and infrasound detections show that the second phase of the eruption started on 25 June 19:28 UTC with ~6 h of jetting. The first detected lightning occurred on 26 June 00:14 UTC, and ash emissions were first detected by Himawari-8 at 01:00 UTC. Post-eruptive satellite imagery indicates new flow deposits to the south and north of the edifice and ash fall to the west and southwest. In particular, regional infrasound data provided novel insight into eruption onset and syn -eruptive changes in intensity. We conclude that, while remote observations are sufficient for detection and tracking of syn-eruptive changes, key challenges in data latency, acquisition, and synthesis must be addressed to improve future near-real-time characterization of eruptions at minimally-monitored or unmonitored volcanoes.

Bismark volcanic arc, New Britain Island, Ulawun v↗

USGS2020

The cascading origin of the 2018 Kīlauea eruption and implications for future forecasting

The 2018 summit and flank eruption of Kīlauea Volcano was one of the largest volcanic events in Hawaiʻi in 200 years. Data suggest that a backup in the magma plumbing system at the long-lived Puʻu ʻŌʻō eruption site caused widespread pressurization in the volcano, driving magma into the lower flank. The eruption evolved, and its impact expanded, as a sequence of cascading events, allowing relatively minor changes at Puʻu ʻŌʻō to cause major destruction and historic changes across the volcano. Eruption forecasting is inherently challenging in cascading scenarios where magmatic systems may prime gradually and trigger on small events.

Hawaii↗

USGS2020

Very‐long‐period (VLP) seismic artifacts during the 2018 caldera collapse at Kīlauea, Hawaii

Throughout the 2018 eruption of Kīlauea volcano (Hawai‘i), episodic collapses of a portion of the volcano’s summit caldera produced repeated M w "> M w 4.9–5.3 earthquakes. Each of these 62 events was characterized by a very‐long‐period (VLP) seismic signal ( ⁠ > 40    s "> > 40 s ⁠ ). Although collapses in the later stage of the eruption produced earthquakes with significant amplitude clipping on near‐summit broadband seismometers, the first 12 were accurately recorded. For these initial collapse events, we compare average VLP seismograms at six near‐summit locations to synthetic seismograms derived from displacements at collocated Global Positioning System stations. We show that the VLP seismic signal was generated by a radially outward and upward ramp function in displacement. We propose that at local distances the period of the VLP seismic signal is solely dependent on the duration of this ramp function and the instrument transfer function, that is, the seismic VLP is an artifact of the bandlimited instrument response and not representative of real ground motion. The displacement ramp function imposes a sinc‐function velocity amplitude spectrum that cannot be fully recovered through standard seismic instrument deconvolution. Any near‐summit VLP signals in instrument‐response‐corrected velocity or displacement seismograms from these collapse events are subject to severe band limitation. Similarly, the seismic amplitude response is not flat through the low‐frequency corner, for example, instrument‐response‐uncorrected seismograms scaled by instrument sensitivity are equally prone to band limitation. This observation is crucial when attempting to clarify the different contributions to the VLP source signature. Not accounting for this effect could lead to misunderstanding of the magmatic processes involved.

Hawaii↗

USGS2020

Caldera collapse geometry revealed by near‐field GPS displacements at Kilauea Volcano in 2018

We employ near‐field GPS data to determine the subsurface geometry of a collapsing caldera during the 2018 Kīlauea eruption. Collapse occurred in 62 discrete events, with “inflationary” deformation external to the collapse, similar to previous basaltic collapses. We take advantage of GPS data from the collapsing block and independent constraints on the magma chamber geometry from inversion of deflation prior to collapse onset. This provides an unparalleled opportunity to constrain the collapse geometry. Employing an axisymmetric finite element model, the co‐collapse displacements are best explained by piston‐like subsidence along a high angle ( ∼ 85°) normal ring fault that may steepen to vertical with depth. Reservoir magma has compressibility of 2→15 × 10 −10 Pa −1 , indicating bubble volume fractions from 1% to 7% (lower if fault steepens with depth). Magma pressure increases during collapses are 1 to 3 MPa, depending on compressibility. Depressurization of a triaxial point source in a homogeneous half‐space fits the data well but provides a biased representation of the source depth and process.

Hawaii↗

USGS2020

The prevalence and significance of offset magma reservoirs at arc volcanoes

Determining the spatial relations between volcanic edifices and their underlying magma storage zones is fundamental for characterizing long-term evolution and short-term unrest. We compile centroid locations of upper crustal magma reservoirs at 56 arc volcanoes inferred from seismic, magnetotelluric, and geodetic studies. We show that magma reservoirs are often horizontally offset from their associated volcanic edifices by multiple kilometers, and the degree of offset broadly scales with reservoir depth. Approximately 20% of inferred magma reservoir centroids occur outside of the overlying volcano’s mean radius. Furthermore, reservoir offset is inversely correlated with edifice size. Taking edifice volume as a proxy for long-term magmatic flux, we suggest that high flux or prolonged magmatism leads to more centralized magma storage beneath arc volcanoes by overprinting upper crustal heterogeneities that would otherwise affect magma ascent. Edifice volumes therefore reflect the spatial distribution of underlying magma storage, which could help guide monitoring strategies at volcanoes

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2020

Preliminary analyses of volcanic hazards at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i, 2017–2018

From 2017 to 2018, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) responded to ongoing and changing eruptions at Kīlauea Volcano as part of its mission to monitor volcanic processes, issue warnings of dangerous activity, and assess volcanic hazards. To formalize short-term hazards assessments—and, in some cases, issue prognoses for future activity—and make results discoverable to both the public and the authorities, HVO released reports online. These reports were published rapidly, received peer review under the USGS’s Fundamental Science Practice guidelines, and were intended to address a focused question posed by one or more cooperating agencies—for this reason, they were called “cooperator reports.” This Open-File Report concatenates four such products issued in 2017 and 2018 into a single publication. These reports have been reformatted and lightly edited for clarity, but the content has not otherwise been changed from the versions first publicly released.

Hawaii↗

USGS2020

Partly cloudy with a chance of lava flows: Forecasting volcanic eruptions in the 21st century

A primary goal of volcanology is forecasting hazardous eruptive activity. Despite much progress over the last century, however, volcanoes still erupt with no detected precursors, lives and livelihoods are lost to eruptive activity, and forecasting the onsets of eruptions remains fraught with uncertainty. Long‐term forecasts are generally derived from the geological and historical records, from which recurrence intervals and styles of activity can be inferred, while shorter‐term forecasts are derived from patterns in monitoring data. Information from geology and monitoring data can be evaluated and combined using statistical analysis, expert elicitation, and conceptual and or mathematical models. Integrative frameworks, such as event trees, combine this diversity of information to produce probabilistic forecasts that can inform the style and scale of the societal response to a potential future eruption. Several developments show promise to revolutionize the utility and accuracy of these forecasts. These include growth in the quantity and quality of multidisciplinary monitoring data, coupled with increases in computing power; machine learning algorithms, which will allow far better utilization of this growing volume of data; and new physiochemical volcano models and data assimilation algorithms, which take advantage of a wide range of monitoring data and realistic physics to better predict the evolution of a given physical state. Although eruption forecasts may never be as generally reliable as weather forecasts, and great caution must be exercised when attempting to predict highly complex volcanic behavior, these and other innovations—particularly when combined in integrative, fully probabilistic forecasting frameworks—should help volcanologists to better issue warnings of volcanic activity on societally relevant time frames.

Hawaii↗

USGS2019

Temporal variations in scrubbing of magmatic gases at the summit of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i

Measurements of gas compositions and emission rates play a major role in monitoring restless volcanoes. However, thermodynamic calculations imply that scrubbing by groundwater will prevent most HCl and significant SO2 emissions until dry pathways are established, thus leading to underestimates of gas released from magma and magma volumes. Despite the significance, direct evidence for scrubbing is mostly lacking. Based on 50 water samples collected between 2003 and 2011 from the deep NSF Well at the summit of Kīlauea Volcano we show that the chemical and stable isotope compositions of groundwater were modified by magmatic gas condensation. Temporal variations of dissolved SO42- and Cl- in the water coincided with changes in magmatic and volcanic activity. In 2006 up to ~40% of the SO2 and HCl degassed from magma may have been scrubbed by groundwater.

Hawaii↗

USGS2019

Mechanics of inflationary deformation during Caldera collapse: Evidence from the 2018 Kīlauea Eruption

During the 2018 Kilauea eruption the caldera ffloor dropped 500 meters in 62 nearly periodic events of up to 8 meters. Caldera collapse maintains pressure in the magma reservoir necessary to sustain high-rate eruptions. The 2018 collapses were accompanied by inflationary tilts and displacements, similar to observations at other basaltic calderas. Collapse is modeled in 2D by uniform slip dislocations intersecting a magma chamber. Collapses occurred rapidly, such that mass within the chamber was constant. For vertical faults surface deformation outside the collapse results only from chamber pressurization with displacements anti-parallel to pre-collapse deflation, similar to observations. For inward dipping faults the predicted ratio of horizontal to vertical displacements during collapse is greater than for the pre-collapse deflation, as observed. For outward dipping faults the horizontal displacements are inward, contrary to data. The average deformation trends during the eruption depend on fault dip and whether stress required to trigger collapses was constant or changed with time.

Hawaii↗

USGS2019

A cautionary tale of topography and tilt from Kilauea Caldera

We conduct finite element analysis to investigate the effect of sharp topography on surface ground deformation caused by pressure changes in a magma reservoir. Tilt data express the horizontal gradient of vertical displacement and therefore can emphasize small variations in deformation that go unnoticed using other methods. We find that the vertical displacement profile at a surface with a cliff can be thought of as the superposition of the deformation from shallow and deeper sources. This combination can create a small peak in vertical displacement that acts as a pseudo‐source, creating a reversal of the deformation gradient and therefore anomalous tilt magnitude and a rotation of up to 180°. We apply these models to Kīlauea Caldera and find that surface geometry creates a tilt rotation of ∼10°, partially explaining anomalous tilt that has been observed. Our analysis highlights the importance of considering topography when assessing tilt measurements at active volcanoes.

Hawaii↗

USGS2019

Physicochemical models of effusive rhyolitic eruptions constrained with InSAR and DEM data: A case study of the 2011-2012 Cordon Caulle eruption

The 9 month long 2011-2012 eruption of Cordon Caulle (Southern Andes, Chile) is the best instrumentally recorded rhyolitic eruption to date and the first time that the effusion of a rhyolitic flow has been observed in detail. We use Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), with time-lapse DEMs and numerical models to study the dynamics of coupled magma reservoir deflation and lava effusion. InSAR recorded ~2.2-2.5 m of deflation after the first three days of the eruption, which can be modeled using a spheroidal magma reservoir at a depth of ∼5 km, ∼20 km long, and with a pressure drop of ~20-30 MPa. The source is elongated in the NW-SE direction and its large dimensions imply a large plumbing system spanning neighboring volcanoes and active throughout the eruption, with a slight change halfway through the effusive phase. TanDEM-X DEMs record the extrusion of both the rhyolitic lava flow and the intrusion of a shallow laccolith around the eruptive vent, with a total volume of ~1.2 km3 DRE. The laccolith was emplaced during the first month of the eruption, during both the eruption explosive and effusive stages. Both the reservoir pressure drop and the extruded volume time series follow quasi-exponential trends, and can be explained by a model that couples the reservoir pres- sure decrease, time- and pressured ependent variations in the magma properties inside of the reservoir, and conduit flow. This model predicts both the temporal evolution and amplitude of both time series, and a magma compressibility of ∼10^−10 Pa−1, half the compressibility of the magma of the sub-Plinian explosive phase. Further, we estimate that the reservoir contained 1-3 wt.% dissolved H2O at the onset of lava effusion, with no exsolved CO2 and H2O in the reservoir throughout the eruption. This is in accord with a magma that was significantly degassed after the explosive phase. These remaining volatiles might have been responsible for magma fragmentation, consistent with the hybrid explosive and effusive style observed during the waning of the eruption.

Cordón Caulle↗

USGS2019

The 2018 rift eruption and summit collapse of Kilauea Volcano

In 2018, Kīlauea Volcano experienced its largest lower East Rift Zone (LERZ) eruption and caldera collapse in at least 200 years. After collapse of the Pu'u 'Ō'ō vent on 30 April, magma propagated downrift. Eruptive fissures opened in the LERZ on 3 May, eventually extending ~6.8 km. A 4 May earthquake (M6.9) produced ~5 m of fault slip. Lava erupted at rates exceeding 100 m3/s, eventually covering 35.5 km2. The summit magma system partially drained, producing minor explosions and near-daily collapses releasing energy equivalent to M4.7-M5.4 earthquakes. Activity declined rapidly on 4 August. Summit collapse and lava flow volume estimates are roughly equivalent--about 0.8 km3. Careful historical observation and monitoring of Kīlauea enabled successful forecasting of hazardous events.

Hawaii↗