Geomorphic change, hydrology, and hydraulics of Caulks Creek, Wildwood, Missouri
Caulks Creek is a small stream that flows through the city of Wildwood in western St. Louis County, Missouri. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Wildwood, has documented historical and recent geomorphic change along Caulks Creek, simulated the hydrologic and hydraulic response of Caulks Creek to a variety of design storm scenarios, and simulated bank retreat resulting from fluvial erosion and mass failure processes. Six study reaches were selected for monitoring geomorphic change based on known locations of erosion issues documented by the city of Wildwood. Recent short-term rates and patterns of geomorphic change in the study reaches, with a focus on bank retreat, were determined from repeat terrestrial light detection and ranging surveys and field observations of the six study reaches. Historical aerial photographs of the study reaches were analyzed to determine long-term rates of bank retreat and channel widening. In general, rapid bank retreat and widening was observed at the outer banks of meander bends and where banks are unforested. Short-term bank retreat varied substantially within individual study reaches, across the study area, and during the study period from no change to as much as 16 feet of retreat between consecutive surveys (5 to 8 months). The field surveys and visual observations indicated that bank retreat occurs episodically owing to a combination of fluvial erosion and mass failure processes, as well as freezing and thawing cycles. Long-term rates of bank retreat ranged from 0.6 to 4.4 feet per year. Hydrologic and hydraulic models of Caulks Creek were used to quantify the peak, volume, and timing of the flow response and the spatial distribution of hydraulic drivers of erosion (velocity and shear stress) along Caulks Creek for design storm scenarios that represent current (as of this publication) and projected future climate. The projected climate conditions resulted in higher peak flows compared to current conditions, including 6 to 21 percent for the year 2050 and 10 to 42 percent for the year 2099 at the downstream end of the study area. Additionally, for a given design storm, projected climate change is predicted to result in faster flows with greater shear stress, as well as more within-stream variability in velocity and shear stress. Many factors affect the velocity and shear stress at a given location, but in general, somewhat fast velocities and high shear stresses tended to occur where the channel is relatively narrow and straight. The velocity and shear stress in the study reaches (known areas of widening and bank retreat) were not particularly high, at least in part owing to the relatively large widths and high sinuosity of the present-day channel in these reaches. The potential mitigating effect of adding runoff storage to the basin also was examined for a selection of design storm scenarios. Additional runoff storage was more effective at mitigating peak flows and total runoff volumes for higher-frequency, lower-intensity storms than for lower-frequency, higher-intensity storms. The additional storage also resulted in an overall reduction in velocity (by as much as 28 percent) and shear stress (by as much as 40 percent) in the study area. However, the effect of the additional storage on peak flows, total runoff volumes, velocity, and shear stress decreased with distance downstream through the study area. For the simulated scenarios, added runoff storage was effective at mitigating the increases in peak flows, total runoff volumes, velocity, and shear stress caused by projected climate change. Lastly, the bank stability and toe erosion model (BSTEM) was used to predict bank erosion and potential bank failure surfaces at five locations along Caulks Creek for a selection of design storm scenarios. The lower-frequency, higher-magnitude design storms resulted in more bank retreat than the higher-frequency, lower-magnitude design storms, though the magnitude of the difference was site dependent. Although scenarios with additional storage were not directly simulated in BSTEM, it is likely that the additional storage would result in reduced bank retreat compared to the same design storm with existing storage, based on the hydraulic modeling results for scenarios with added runoff storage.