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Kurt J. Jenkins

Publications and source records attributed to Kurt J. Jenkins.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2020

Small mammals and ungulates respond to and interact with revegetation processes following dam removal

Terrestrial wildlife communities are often overlooked as components of ecosystem restoration following dam removal. However, a diverse mammalian fauna colonizes habitat on dewatered reservoirs and may influence restoration processes. We studied mammalian colonization and ungulate herbivory from 2014 to 2018 following the removal of two large dams on the Elwha River in Washington, USA. Specifically, we examined (1) small mammal colonization and (2) Roosevelt elk ( Cervus elaphus roosevelti ) and Columbian black-tailed deer ( Odocoileus hemionus columbianus ) distribution and browsing pressure in association with revegetation efforts. We live-trapped small mammals on two former reservoir beds and monitored deer and elk use by conducting pellet group counts and quantifying ungulate herbivory at plots throughout the former reservoir beds and an adjacent reference site. We found that the proportion of deciduous riparian species on plots best predicted occupancy for mice, shrews, and voles. Small mammal species diversity was best explained by the proportion of logs and conifers on study plots. Roosevelt elk presence and browsing intensity on willows ( Salix spp.) and black cottonwood ( Populus balsamifera ssp. trichocarpa ) varied both spatially and temporally, affecting the stature and potentially the growth trajectories of these species. Early seral restoration of these terrestrial habitats has included the presence of a diversity of granivores, insectivores, and herbivores, with elk demonstrating the strongest influence over portions of the study area. Small mammal colonization complements revegetation succession and demonstrates restoration of ecological processes, while large ungulates may be playing a more substantial role in shaping revegetation.

Washington↗
USGS2019

Trends in landbird density at two national parks in fragmented, mixed-use landscapes of the Pacific Northwest

National parks play a key role in conserving species by providing landscapes where threats from anthropogenic disturbance are reduced. In a recent study of 3 large wilderness parks in the Pacific Northwest, nearly all landbird species were found to be stable or increasing. Nonetheless, contemporary results from the Breeding Bird Survey and mark-recapture studies fuel concerns that some landbirds in the Pacific Northwest are trending in sync with many North America species in widespread decline. Although landbird populations might be thriving in large parks with extensive old-growth forest, those in smaller parks with less intact wilderness and higher ratios of edge-to-interior habitat might reflect the stressors inherent in more human-dominated landscapes. We conducted landbird point-count surveys from 2005 to 2016 in 2 national historical parks situated in the more human-dominated landscapes of this region, San Juan Island National Historical Park and Lewis and Clark National Historical Park. Established primarily to protect cultural resources, these parks lack old-growth forest and consist of relatively small parcels embedded in fragmented, multi-use landscapes. Here, we apply recent developments in point-count analysis to estimate trends in population density for 50 landbird species commonly detected in these small parks, including lagged effects of precipitation and temperature on the annual density of each species, and effects of survey conditions on species detection. All but 3 species exhibited stable densities in both parks, and more than half of the populations analyzed clearly increased in density over the study period. Notable exceptions were single-park declines in Olive-sided Flycatcher ( Contopus cooperi ), Northern Flicker ( Colaptes anratus ), and Hutton's Vireo ( Vireo huttoni ). Annual variation in population density was often related to climate, with generally positive responses to a recent deficit in annual precipitation-as-snow, and more variable responses to higher mean spring temperature. These results reinforce trends estimated for 3 large national parks in the Pacific Northwest, suggesting recent stability of landbird populations in parks of this region, independent of park size or setting.

Northwestern Naturalist↗
USGS2018

Terrestrial fauna are agents and endpoints in ecosystem restoration following dam removal

Dam removal is an effective and increasingly applied river restoration strategy. This has led to heightened calls for research and monitoring aimed at understanding physical and ecological outcomes following dam removal. While such research programs have increased, roles of terrestrial fauna in the restoration process remain poorly understood, although wildlife and invertebrate fauna are key components of restored ecosystems. Wildlife play reciprocal roles in restoration: they benefit from restored habitats and their activities affect restoration trajectories. Dam removal exposes substrates on former reservoirs and reconnects river corridors, providing new habitat and food resources for terrestrial fauna. Conversely, many wildlife may influence the river restoration process, with both short-term and long-term consequences for community composition, nutrient transfer, and ecosystem function. We assert that considering terrestrial fauna more directly in river restoration research and planning can enhance restoration outcomes. We illustrate these concepts by describing short-term patterns and potential future processes expected from the recent removal of two large dams on the Elwha River in Washington State, the largest dam removal effort ever undertaken. We conclude that an ecosystem-level understanding of restoration following dam removal is critical to fully assessing the impacts and benefits of restoration. This includes measuring the roles and responses of terrestrial fauna to these ecologically and culturally significant restoration projects.

Ecological Restoration↗
USGS2018

Landbird population trends in mountain and historical parks of the North Coast and Cascades Network: 2005–2016 synthesis

Long-term monitoring of landbird populations within the National Park Service (NPS) North Coast and Cascades Inventory and Monitoring Network (NCCN) began in 2005, with the goal of detecting trends to inform the conservation and management of landbirds and their habitats. Here we use 2005–2016 data from over 3500 point-count stations to report landbird occurrence and trends in each of five NCCN parks, including three national parks in mountain wilderness areas (Mount Rainier National Park, North Cascades National Park Complex and Olympic National Park) and two historical parks (Lewis and Clark National Historical Park and San Juan Island National Historical Park). Recent advances in point-count modeling were applied to characterize population trends for 68 landbird species, including up to 41 species in each park. Fitted models suggest that almost all species exhibited stable or increasing trends over the study period. Notable exceptions were a decline in the Olive-sided Flycatcher in two parks and single-park declines in the Norther Flicker, Hutton’s Vireo, Clark’s Nutcracker, Mountain Chickadee, Wilson’s Warbler and Dark-eyed Junco. Negative effects of precipitation-as-snow were supported in over one-third of our population models. Lower precipitation-as-snow in the mountain parks might have contributed to rising landbird densities during the study period. Population density also varied with elevation in mountain parks, but temporal trends were similar among elevational strata for each species analyzed, suggesting no evidence of elevational range-shifts during this study. These results reinforce recent analyses of the first 10 years of point-count data from the three mountain parks (Ray et al. 2017 a). In the current analysis, models were extended to explore effects of covariates on species detection probability. Negative effects of ambient noise level on detection were supported in several cases, but adding covariates of detection generally did not lead to substantial improvements in model fit. In some cases, model fit was improved by reducing the scope of inference to a portion of the focal region, suggesting important effects of habitat heterogeneity.

Natural Resource Report↗
USGS2017

Recent stability of resident and migratory landbird populations in National Parks of the Pacific Northwest

Monitoring species in National Parks facilitates inference regarding effects of climate change on population dynamics because parks are relatively unaffected by other forms of anthropogenic disturbance. Even at early points in a monitoring program, identifying climate covariates of population density can suggest vulnerabilities to future change. Monitoring landbird populations in parks during the breeding season brings the added benefit of allowing a comparative approach to inference across a large suite of species with diverse requirements. For example, comparing resident and migratory species that vary in exposure to non-park habitats can reveal the relative importance of park effects, such as those related to local climate. We monitored landbirds using breeding-season point-count data collected during 2005–2014 in three wilderness areas of the Pacific Northwest (Mount Rainier, North Cascades, and Olympic National Parks). For 39 species, we estimated recent trends in population density while accounting for individual detection probability using Bayesian hierarchical N -mixture models. Our analyses integrated several recent developments in N -mixture modeling, incorporating interval and distance sampling to estimate distinct components of detection probability while also accommodating count intervals of varying duration, annual variation in the length and number of point-count transects, spatial autocorrelation, random effects, and covariates of detection and density. As covariates of density, we considered metrics of precipitation and temperature hypothesized to affect breeding success. We also considered effects of park and elevational stratum on trend. Regardless of model structure, we estimated stable or increasing densities during 2005–2014 for most populations. Mean trends across species were positive for migrants in every park and for residents in one park. A recent snowfall deficit in this region might have contributed to the positive trend, because population density varied inversely with precipitation-as-snow for both migrants and residents. Densities varied directly but much more weakly with mean spring temperature. Our approach exemplifies an analytical framework for estimating trends from point-count data, and for assessing the role of climatic and other spatiotemporal variables in driving those trends. Understanding population trends and the factors that drive them is critical for adaptive management and resource stewardship in the context of climate change.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2017

Development of a robust analytical framework for assessing landbird trends, dynamics and relationships with environmental covariates in the North Coast and Cascades Network

During 2015-2016, we completed development of a new analytical framework for landbird population monitoring data from the National Park Service (NPS) North Coast and Cascades Inventory and Monitoring Network (NCCN). This new tool for analysis combines several recent advances in modeling population status and trends using point-count data and is designed to supersede the approach previously slated for analysis of trends in the NCCN and other networks, including the Sierra Nevada Network (SIEN). Advances supported by the new model-based approach include 1) the use of combined data on distance and time of detection to estimate detection probability without assuming perfect detection at zero distance, 2) seamless accommodation of variation in sampling effort and missing data, and 3) straightforward estimation of the effects of downscaled climate and other local habitat characteristics on spatial and temporal trends in landbird populations. No changes in the current field protocol are necessary to facilitate the new analyses. We applied several versions of the new model to data from each of 39 species recorded in the three mountain parks of the NCCN, estimating trends and climate relationships for each species during 2005-2014. Our methods and results are also reported in a manuscript in revision for the journal Ecosphere (hereafter, Ray et al.). Here, we summarize the methods and results outlined in depth by Ray et al., discuss benefits of the new analytical framework, and provide recommendations for its application to synthetic analyses of long-term data from the NCCN and SIEN. All code necessary for implementing the new analyses is provided within the Appendices to this report, in the form of fully annotated scripts written in the open-access programming languages R and JAGS.

Natural Resource Report↗
USGS2016

Mountain goat abundance and population trends in the Olympic Mountains, northwestern Washington, 2016

Executive Summary We estimated abundance and trends of non-native mountain goats ( Oreamnos americanus ) in the Olympic Mountains of northwestern Washington, based on aerial surveys conducted during July 13–24, 2016. The surveys produced the seventh population estimate since the first formal aerial surveys were conducted in 1983. This was the second population estimate since we adjusted survey area boundaries and adopted new estimation procedures in 2011. Before 2011, surveys encompassed all areas free of glacial ice at elevations above 1,520 meters (m), but in 2011 we expanded survey unit boundaries to include suitable mountain goat habitats at elevations between 1,425 and 1,520 m. In 2011, we also began applying a sightability correction model allowing us to estimate undercounting bias associated with aerial surveys and to adjust survey results accordingly. The 2016 surveys were carried out by National Park Service (NPS) personnel in Olympic National Park and by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) biologists in Olympic National Forest and in the southeastern part of Olympic National Park. We surveyed a total of 59 survey units, comprising 55 percent of the 60,218-hectare survey area. We estimated a mountain goat population of 623 ±43 (standard error, SE). Based on this level of estimation uncertainty, the 95-percent confidence interval ranged from 561 to 741 mountain goats at the time of the survey. We examined the rate of increase of the mountain goat population by comparing the current population estimate to previous estimates from 2004 and 2011. Because aerial survey boundaries changed between 2004 and 2016, we recomputed population estimates for 2011 and 2016 surveys based on the revised survey boundaries as well as the previously defined boundaries so that estimates were directly comparable across years. Additionally, because the Mount Washington survey unit was not surveyed in 2011, we used results from an independent survey of the Mount Washington unit conducted by WDFW biologists in 2012 and combined it with the 2011 survey results to produce a complete survey conducted over 2 years. The revised estimates of mountain goat abundance occurring at elevations above 1,520 m were 230 ±19 (SE) in 2004, 350 ±41 (SE) in 2011, and 584 ±39 (SE) in 2016. The difference between the overall 2016 population estimate (623 ±43 [SE]) and the smaller estimate (584 ±39 [SE]) reflected the number of mountain goats counted in the expanded survey areas added in 2011. Based on comparisons within the standardized survey boundary, the mountain goat population in the Olympic Mountains increased at an average finite rate of 6 percent annually from 2004 to 2011, 11 percent annually from 2011 to 2016, and 8 percent annually over the combined period. We caution that the population may have been underestimated in 2011 because of record heavy snows persisting into the survey season. Therefore, the rate of population increase from 2011 and 2016 may be overestimated. The rate of increase measured over the combined period (2004–16) may be more representative of the recent population growth. We conclude that the abundance of mountain goats has increased for more than a decade, and if the recent average rate of population growth were sustained, the population would increase by 45 percent over the next 5 years.

Washington↗
USGS2016

Channel-planform evolution in four rivers of Olympic National Park, Washington, U.S.A.: The roles of physical drivers and trophic cascades

Identifying the relative contributions of physical and ecological processes to channel evolution remains a substantial challenge in fluvial geomorphology. We use a 74-year aerial photographic record of the Hoh, Queets, Quinault, and Elwha Rivers, Olympic National Park, Washington, U.S.A., to investigate whether physical or trophic-cascade-driven ecological factors—excessive elk impacts after wolves were extirpated a century ago—are the dominant controls on channel planform of these gravel-bed rivers. We find that channel width and braiding show strong relationships with recent flood history. All four rivers have widened significantly in recent decades, consistent with increased flood activity since the 1970s. Channel planform also reflects sediment-supply changes, evident from landslide response on the Elwha River. We surmise that the Hoh River, which shows a multi-decadal trend toward greater braiding, is adjusting to increased sediment supply associated with rapid glacial retreat. In this sediment-routing system with high connectivity, such climate-driven signals appear to propagate downstream without being buffered substantially by sediment storage. Legacy effects of anthropogenic modification likely also affect the Quinault River planform. We infer no correspondence between channel geomorphic evolution and elk abundance, suggesting that trophic-cascade effects in this setting are subsidiary to physical controls on channel morphology. Our findings differ from previous interpretations of Olympic National Park fluvial dynamics and contrast with the classic example of Yellowstone National Park, where legacy effects of elk overuse are apparent in channel morphology; we attribute these differences to hydrologic regime and large-wood availability.

Washington↗
USGS2016

Timing of translocation influences birth rate and population dynamics in a forest carnivore

Timing can be critical for many life history events of organisms. Consequently, the timing of management activities may affect individuals and populations in numerous and unforeseen ways. Translocations of organisms are used to restore or expand populations but the timing of translocations is largely unexplored as a factor influencing population success. We hypothesized that the process of translocation negatively influences reproductive rates of individuals that are moved just before their birthing season and, therefore, the timing of releases could influence translocation success. Prior to reintroducing fishers ( Pekania pennanti ) into northern California and onto the Olympic Peninsula of Washington, we predicted that female fishers released in November and December (early) would have a higher probability of giving birth to kits the following March or April than females released in January, February, and March (late), just prior to or during the period of blastocyst implantation and gestation. Over four winters (2008–2011), we translocated 56 adult female fishers that could have given birth in the spring immediately after release. Denning rates, an index of birth rate, for females released early were 92% in California and 38% in Washington. In contrast, denning rates for females released late were 40% and 11%, in California and Washington, a net reduction in denning rate of 66% across both sites. To understand how releasing females nearer to parturition could influence population establishment and persistence, we used stochastic population simulations using three-stage Lefkovitch matrices. These simulations showed that translocating female fishers early had long-term positive influences on the mean population size and on quasi-extinction thresholds compared to populations where females were released late. The results from both empirical data and simulations show that the timing of translocation, with respect to life history events, should be considered during planning of translocations and implemented before the capture, movement, and release of organisms for translocation.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2016

Landscape-scale habitat selection by fishers translocated to the Olympic Peninsula of Washington

The fisher was extirpated from much of the Pacific Northwestern United States during the mid- to late-1900s and is now proposed for federal listing as a threatened species in all or part of its west coast range. Following the translocation of 90 fishers from central British Columbia, Canada, to the Olympic Peninsula of Washington State from 2008 to 2010, we investigated the landscape-scale habitat selection of reintroduced fishers across a broad range of forest ages and disturbance histories, providing the first information on habitat relationships of newly reintroduced fishers in coastal coniferous forests in the Pacific Northwest. We developed 17 a priori models to evaluate several habitat-selection hypotheses based on premises of habitat models used to forecast habitat suitability for the reintroduced population. Further, we hypothesized that female fishers, because of their smaller body size than males, greater vulnerability to predation, and specific reproductive requirements, would be more selective than males for mid- to late-seral forest communities, where complex forest structural elements provide secure foraging, resting, and denning sites. We assessed 11 forest structure and landscape characteristics within the home range core-areas used by 19 females and 12 males and within randomly placed pseudo core areas that represented available habitats. We used case-controlled logistic regression to compare the characteristics of used and pseudo core areas and to assess selection by male and female fishers. Females were more selective of core area placement than males. Fifteen of 19 females (79%) and 5 of 12 males (42%) selected core areas within federal lands that encompassed primarily forests with an overstory of mid-sized or large trees. Male fishers exhibited only weak selection for core areas dominated by forests with an overstory of small trees, primarily on land managed for timber production or at high elevations. The amount of natural open area best distinguished the use of core areas between males and females, with females using substantially less natural open area than males. Although sex-specific selection has been suspected for fishers, we identified factors that distinguish the selection of core areas by females from those of males, information which will be valuable to managers planning reintroductions or providing suitable habitat to promote fisher recovery in the Pacific Northwest.

Washington↗
USGS2015

Elk monitoring in Mount Rainier and Olympic national parks: 2008-2011 synthesis report

In 2008, the USGS collaborated with the NPS, the Muckleshoot and Puyallup Indian Tribes, and WDFW to develop a protocol tor monitor changes in abundance, population composition, and spatial distribution of elk on summer ranges in MORA and OLYM and winter ranges in OLYM. We developed double-observer sightability (DO-S) models that adjusted raw counts of elk as a function of factors influencing detection probabilities from the air, e.g. vegetation, elk group size, light, elk activity, and pilot experience. We plan to develop DO-S models for both MORA and OLYM summer ranges, but due to radiotelemetry collar failures in OLYM, we do not yet have enough data to model detection probabilities in OLYM. We analyzed results of the first 4 years of elk monitoring conducted under the new protocol from 2008-2011. Objectives of this first synthetic analysis are to: • update the DO-S model for MORA aerial survey results • examine abundance, composition, and distribution of elk trends in MORA summer ranges • establish a baseline of counts, population composition, and distribution of elk in OLYM summer ranges • examine trends in counts and distribution of elk in OLYM low-elevation winter ranges during early spring • determine environmental factors influencing abundance and composition of elk in selected MORA summer ranges and unadjusted counts of elk on selected OLYM winter ranges • review progress in developing a DO-S model for OLYM elk surveys • examine aerial survey operations and provide suggestions for future surveys. There was no trend in elk numbers in the N. Rainier TCA from 2008-2011; the trend in the S. Rainier TCA was not statistically significant but increased 3.3%/year. Maximum counts increased in the N. Rainier TCA ~6%/year. Maximum counts in the S. Rainier TCA increased at a rate of 17% annually. Due to failed radiocollars, weather, and other problems, we completed surveys in 2 of 5 OLYM summer range TCAs; no trend data are available. In OLYM winter ranges, we surveyed the Hoh TCA during early spring 2008-10 and of the S. Fork Hoh and Queets in 2008 and 2010. No surveys were done for early-spring counts in 2011 and 2012 due to high snowfall and lack of funding. Legacy early-spring surveys in OLYM since 1985 allowed us to assess trends in counts in the early-spring TCAs from 1985-2010. Counts of elk in the early-spring TCAs declined: 63% in the S. Fork Hoh, 18% in the Hoh, and 22% in the Queets Valley. We continue to develop and improve the DO-S model for application to OLYM summer surveys. In the next synthesis report, we will update findings with additional data following the 2015 field season, based on 8 years of survey results; it will be a more complete analysis of elk population trends.

Washington↗
USGS2015

Evaluation of fisher (Pekania pennanti) restoration in Olympic National Park and the Olympic Recovery Area: 2014 annual progress report

With the translocation and release of 90 fishers ( Pekania pennanti ) from British Columbia to Olympic National Park during 2008–2010, the National Park Service and Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife accomplished the first phase of fisher restoration in Washington State. Beginning in 2013, we initiated a new research project to determine the current status of fishers on Washington’s Olympic Peninsula 3–5 years after the releases and evaluate the short-term success of the restoration program. Objectives of the study are to determine the current distribution of fishers and proportion of the recovery area that is currently occupied by fishers, determine several genetic characteristics of the reintroduced population, and determine reproductive success of the founding animals through genetic studies. During 2014, we continued working with a broad coalition of cooperating agencies, tribes, and nongovernmental organizations (NGO) to collect data on fisher distribution and genetics using noninvasive sampling methods. The primary sampling frame consisted of 157 24-square-kilometer hexagons (hexes) distributed across all major land ownerships within the Olympic Peninsula target survey area. In 2014 we expanded the study by adding 58 more hexes to an expanded study area in response to incidental fisher observations outside of the target area obtained in 2013; 49 hexes were added south and 9 to the east of the target area. During 2014, federal, state, tribal and NGO biologists and volunteers established three baited motion-sensing camera stations, paired with hair snaring devices, in 80 hexes; 69 in the targeted area 11 in the expansion areas. Each paired camera/hair station was left in place for approximately 6 weeks, with three checks on 2-week intervals. We documented fisher presence in 5 of the 80 hexagons, and identified 5 different fishers through a combination of microsatellite DNA analyses and camera detections. All fisher detections were in the target area. These 5 individuals included 2 of the original founding population of 90, 1 of the 2 rescued and rehabilitated kits that were released in 2010, and 1 new recruit to the population (1 individual was not identified). Additionally, we identified more than 40 other species of wildlife at the baited camera stations. We also obtained eight incidental fisher observations through photographs and carcass retrieval. During 2015, we plan to sample 75 hexagons in the target area and 12 in the expansion area. We plan to sample all unsampled accessible hexes in the target area (26 hexes), and re-sample accessible hexes sampled in 2013 (49 hexes).

Washington↗
USGS2014

Using mark-recapture distance sampling methods on line transect surveys

Mark–recapture distance sampling (MRDS) methods are widely used for density and abundance estimation when the conventional DS assumption of certain detection at distance zero fails, as they allow detection at distance zero to be estimated and incorporated into the overall probability of detection to better estimate density and abundance. However, incorporating MR data in DS models raises survey and analysis issues not present in conventional DS. Conversely, incorporating DS assumptions in MR models raises issues not present in conventional MR. As a result, being familiar with either conventional DS methods or conventional MR methods does not on its own put practitioners in good a position to apply MRDS methods appropriately. This study explains the sometimes subtly different varieties of MRDS survey methods and the associated concepts underlying MRDS models. This is done as far as possible without giving mathematical details – in the hope that this will make the key concepts underlying the methods accessible to a wider audience than if we were to present the concepts via equations. We illustrate use of the two main types of MRDS model by using data collected on two different types of survey: a survey of ungulate faecal pellets where two observers searched independently of each other; and a cetacean survey that used a search protocol that could accommodate responsive movement, with only one observer searching independently and the other being aware of all detections. Synthesis and applications . Mark–recapture DS is a widely used method for estimating animal density and abundance when detection of animals at distance zero is not certain. Two observer configurations and three statistical models are described, and it is important to choose the most appropriate model for the observer configuration and target species in question. By way of making the methods more accessible to practicing ecologists, we describe the key ideas underlying MRDS methods, the sometimes subtle differences between them, and we illustrate these by applying different kinds of MRDS method to surveys of two different target species using different survey configurations.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2014

Landbird trends in national parks of the North Coast and Cascades Network, 2005-12

National parks in the North Coast and Cascades Network (NCCN) can fulfill vital roles as refuges for bird species dependent on late-successional forest conditions and as reference sites for assessing the effects of land-use and land-cover changes on bird populations throughout the larger Pacific Northwest region. Additionally, long-term monitoring of landbirds throughout the NCCN provides information that can inform decisions about important management issues in the parks, including visitor impacts, fire management, and the effects of introduced species. In 2005, the NCCN began implementing a network-wide Landbird Monitoring Project as part of the NPS Inventory and Monitoring Program. In this report, we discuss 8-year trends (2005–12) of bird populations in the NCCN, based on a sampling framework of point counts established in three large wilderness parks (Mount Rainier, North Cascades, and Olympic National Parks), 7-year trends at Lewis and Clark National Historical Park (sampled in 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2012), and 5-year trends at San Juan Islands National Historical Park (sampled in 2007, 2009, and 2011). Our analysis encompasses a fairly short time span for this long-term monitoring program. The first 2 years of the time series (2005 and 2006) were implemented as part of a limited pilot study that included only a small subset of the transects. The subsequent 6 years (2007–12) represent just a single cycle through 5 years of alternating panels of transects in the large parks, with the first of five alternating panels revisited for the first time in 2012. Of 204 transects that comprise the six sampling panels in the large parks, only 68 (one-third) have thus been eligible for revisit surveys (34 during every year after 2005, and an additional 34 only in 2012) and can contribute to our current trend estimates. We therefore initiated the current analysis with a primary goal of testing our analytical procedures rather than detecting trends that might be strong enough to drive conservation or management decisions in the parks or elsewhere. We expect that aggregated trend detection results may change substantially over the next several years, as the number of transects with revisit histories triples and the spatial dispersion of transects contributing to trend estimates also improves greatly. In the meantime, caution should be exercised in interpreting the importance of trends, as individual years can have very large influences on the direction and magnitude of trends in a time series of such limited duration (and limited numbers of repeat visits at the small parks). Nevertheless, we estimated trends for 43 species at Mount Rainier National Park, 53 species at North Cascades National Park Complex, and 41 species at Olympic National Park. Of 137 park-species combinations (including combined-park analyses), we found 16 significant decreases (12 percent) and five significant increases (4 percent). We identify several limitations of the current analytical framework for trend assessment but suggest that the overall sampling design is strong and amenable to analysis by more recently developed model-based methods. These could provide a more flexible framework for examining trends and other population parameters of interest, as well as testing hypotheses that relate the distribution and abundance of species to environmental covariates. A model-based approach would allow for modeling various components of the detection process and analyzing observations (detection process), population state (occupancy, population size, density), and change (trend, local extinction and colonization rates turnover) simultaneously. Finally, we also evaluate operational aspects of NCCN Landbird Monitoring Project, and conclude that our robust, multi-party partnership is successfully implementing the project as it was envisioned.

British Columbia;Oregon;Washington↗
USGS2014

Elk monitoring in Lewis and Clark National Historical Park: 2008-2012 synthesis report

Maintaining elk (Cervus elaphus roosevelti) herds that frequent Lewis and Clark National Historical Park (NHP) is central to the park’s purpose of preserving the historic, cultural, scenic, and natural resources associated with the winter encampment of the Lewis and Clark expedition. Elk were critically important to the Lewis and Clark expedition in providing food and hides that sustained the expedition during the winter of 1805-06 and supplied them for their return east during 1806. Today, elk remain a key component of interpreting the Lewis and Clark story to over 200,000 park visitors each year at the Fort Clatsop visitor center. In 2008, the US Geological Survey (USGS) began collaborating with Lewis and Clark NHP and the NPS North Coast and Cascades Network to develop a protocol for monitoring long-term changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of elk use within and adjacent to Lewis and Clark NHP (Griffin et al. 2011). Specific objectives of the monitoring program were to measure trends in (1) relative use of the Fort Clatsop unit by elk during winter; (2) the proportion of areas where elk sign is present in the Fort Clatsop unit in winter; and (3) the frequency of elk sightings from roads in and around the Fort Clatsop unit. This report synthesizes the results of the first four years of monitoring elk distribution and use in Lewis and Clark NHP from 2008-2012. We also present data from FY2012 (Appendix 1), in lieu of an annual report for that year. We used fecal pellet group surveys as the cornerstone for monitoring trends in both relative use of the Fort Clatsop Unit by elk and the proportion of areas where elk sign was present at the end of winter. We estimated pellet group density based on data collected from a network of fecal pellet plots distributed systematically throughout the unit. We developed a double observer sampling scheme that enabled us to estimate detection biases and improve the accuracy of pellet group density estimates. We computed the estimated detection probability for any pellet group observed; this probability was a function of the pellet group size and stage of decay, as well as lighting and vegetation conditions, and the number of observers (one or two) searching for pellets in that subplot. We then used these estimated detection probabilities to adjust the raw counts of the detected pellet groups to account for groups that likely went undetected under similar pellet and environmental conditions (each observed pellet group was weighted by the inverse of its estimated detection probability). We also used results from the late winter fecal pellet surveys to quantify the proportion of areas where elk pellets occurred (PAO), which was based on the presence of fecal pellet groups and estimation of detection biases (i.e., accounting for pellet groups that likely went undetected by both observers). In this synthesis, we report temporal trends in both pellet group density and PAO from 2008-2012, based on weighted linear regression analyses as well as spatial variation of pellet group densities over time. We completed late winter fecal pellet surveys at 61-66 plots annually, depending on yearly variation in access. We cleared fecal pellets at survey points in late October / early November each year and returned in late February / early March to count pellet groups left by elk over the winter. The estimated probability that a pellet group was detected by any one observer during late winter was affected most by the pellet group size and was less affected by decay class and lighting conditions. Per-observer detection probabilities ranged from as low as ~10-15% for single pellets to ~85-90% for pellet groups with 50 pellets. Average pellet group density in the Fort Clatsop unit ranged annually from 0.58 (+/- 1.43 standard error [SE]) to 0.93 (+/- 2.25 SE) pellet groups per 3-m radius subplot. Pellet group density declined over time, at approximately 8.8% per year (+/- 2.5% SE), but that slope was not statistically distinguishable from zero (2- tailed P=0.16). Following correction for detection biases, the proportion of surveyed points used by elk (i.e., PAO) ranged from 0.44 (+/- 0.07 SE) to 0.53 (+/- 0.07 SE) during the 4 winters. The estimated proportion of areas where elk pellets occurred (PAO) declined at a rate of 2.6% per year (+/- 1.2% per year SE), but that trend also was not statistically distinguishable from zero (2- tailed P=0.17). Statistical significance of a measure’s trend depends on both the magnitude (i.e., slope) of the observed trend and the number of years the trend continues in the same increasing or decreasing direction. Through simulation modeling we determined how many additional years of surveys would be required to reveal a statistically significant trend, based on the same trends in pellet group density and PAO, and associated variation, observed from 2009-2012. Assuming the same trends persist in the future, simulations indicated that there is a 70% probability that a statistically significant trend would be detected after two more years of conducting pellet group surveys. Relative use by elk during winter, as indexed by elk pellet group density, was generally greatest in the southeast region of the Fort Clatsop unit in or near the large freshwater marsh at the mouth of Colewort Creek and adjacent upland areas. Pellet group density was also higher than average in the north-central forested area, not far from a privately-owned pasture north of the park boundary. This spatial pattern in pellet group densities across the Fort Clatsop unit was consistent across all four years, although specific pellet group densities varied from year to year. Pellet group density declined significantly over time at two points in the southeast of the Fort Clatsop unit, even though pellet group density at those points remained higher than the unit average. Pellet group density increased significantly over time at one point in the north-central region, and at one point in the south-central region of the unit, indicating a slight shift in the distribution of elk use within the Fort Clatsop Unit over the four years. As an index of visitors’ opportunities to see elk in and around the Fort Clatsop Unit, we conducted replicated roadside elk surveys 3-5 times monthly during February, April, June, August, October and December 2008-2012. During each morning of survey, we searched for elk along four routes that totaled 32 km. We examined bimonthly trends in the numbers of elk groups seen, the total number of elk seen, and the observed composition ratios for those six months of the year. The average number of elk groups seen per survey ranged from 0.75 (+/- 0.32 SE) during February to a peak of 1.95 (+/- 0.36 SE) during June. Despite this seasonal variation in numbers of elk groups seen, the average total number of elk seen per morning was less variable. The average ratios of antlered elk to antlerless adult elk (i.e., bulls:cows) and calves to antlerless adult elk (i.e. calves:cows) varied seasonally, with the highest of both average ratios observed in August. We detected no significant trends in the average number of elk groups and total numbers of elk seen per survey from 2008-2012. Similarly, ratios of calves and antlered elk per antlerless elk did not differ over time. Elk groups were frequently seen from January to August in the southeast region of the Fort Clatsop unit, in the vicinity of Colewort Creek. Outside of NPS lands, we observed elk most frequently in open areas near the Astoria regional airport, in the pastures and forests immediately north of the Fort Clatsop unit and, prior to the construction of a residential development, in a pasture northwest of the Fort Clatsop unit. Elk monitoring at Lewis and Clark NHP is still in its initial years and additional monitoring will be required to verify trends that appear to be emerging. For example, the initial monitoring suggested incipient declining trends in both pellet group density and proportion of plots with pellets present, as well as, potentially, a small shift in elk distribution away from a new trail that was recently constructed in the southeast portion of the Fort Clatsop unit. Continued monitoring will aid in determining whether this local change in distribution persists (or, alternatively, resulted from short-term random variation), and whether there will be any positive or negative effect in the northern portion of the unit where a new trail has been constructed. High variability in road counts prevented our ability to find any clear trend in numbers or composition of elk observed in and near Fort Clatsop, but changes in the patterns of observations of elk from roadways suggest that residential development outside the park has reduced the available habitat for elk in some of the areas surveyed, and may have affected spatial use patterns of elk adjacent to some areas of the park. In addition to monitoring future effects of land use changes outside the park, continued monitoring may also prove useful for assessing elk responses to natural succession in forests disturbed by windthrow in December 2007 and to NPS vegetation management activities such as variable density thinning in the forest, trail development, and restoration at Otter Point tidal area and Colewort Creek Slough.

Oregon;Washington↗
USGS2014

Mount Rainier National Park

Natural Resource Condition Assessments (NRCAs) evaluate current conditions for a subset of natural resources and resource indicators in national parks. NRCAs also report on trends in resource condition (when possible), identify critical data gaps, and characterize a general level of confidence for study findings. The resources and indicators emphasized in a given project depend on the park’s resource setting, status of resource stewardship planning and science in identifying high-priority indicators, and availability of data and expertise to assess current conditions for a variety of potential study resources and indicators. Although the primary objective of NRCAs is to report on current conditions relative to logical forms of reference conditions and values, NRCAs also report on trends, when appropriate (i.e., when the underlying data and methods support such reporting), as well as influences on resource conditions. These influences may include past activities or conditions that provide a helpful context for understanding current conditions and present-day threats and stressors that are best interpreted at park, watershed, or landscape scales (though NRCAs do not report on condition status for land areas and natural resources beyond park boundaries). Intensive cause-andeffect analyses of threats and stressors, and development of detailed treatment options, are outside the scope of NRCAs. It is also important to note that NRCAs do not address resources that lack sufficient data for assessment. For Mount Rainier National Park, this includes most invertebrate species and many other animal species that are subject to significant stressors from climate change and other anthropogenic sources such as air pollutants and recreational use. In addition, we did not include an analysis of the physical hydrology associated with streams (such as riverine landforms, erosion and aggradation which is significant in MORA streams), due to a loss of staff expertise from the USGS-BRD staff conducting the work, and human disturbance landcover issues such as the effects of roads, trails, and other anthropogenic developments due to lack of funds.

Report↗
USGS2013

Occupancy patterns of mammals and lentic amphibians in the Elwha River riparian zone before dam removal

The downstream transport of sediments and organics and upstream migration of anadromous fishes are key ecological processes in unregulated riverine ecosystems of the North Pacific coast, but their influence on wildlife habitats and populations is poorly documented. Removal of two large hydroelectric dams in Washington’s Elwha Valley provides an unprecedented opportunity to study long-term responses of wildlife populations to dam removal and restoration of these key ecological processes. We compared pre-dam removal patterns in the relative abundance and occupancy of mesocarnivores, small mammals and lentic amphibians of the Elwha River riparian zone above, between and below the dams. Occupancy of riparian habitats by three mesocarnivore species diminished upriver but did not appear to be closely linked with the absence of salmon in the upper river. Although the importance of salmon in the lower river cannot be discounted, other gradients in food resources also likely contributed to observed distribution patterns of mesocarnivores. Abundance and occupancy patterns within congeneric pairs of new world mice (Peromyscus spp.) and shrews (Sorex spp.) indicated that closely related species were negatively associated with each other and responded to habitat gradients in the riparian zone. The availability of lentic habitats of amphibians was highly variable, and occupancy was low as a result of rapidly changing flows during the larval development period. We speculate that long-term changes in habitat conditions and salmon availability following dam removal will elicit long-term changes in distribution of mesocarnivores, small mammals and amphibians. Long-term monitoring will enhance understanding of the role of fish and restored ecosystem processes on wildlife communities along salmon-bearing rivers in the region.

Washington↗