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Kristine Holderied

Publications and source records attributed to Kristine Holderied.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

Temperature variations in the northern Gulf of Alaska across synoptic to century-long time scales

Surface and subsurface moored buoy, ship-based, remotely sensed, and reanalysis datasets are used to investigate thermal variability of northern Gulf of Alaska (NGA) nearshore, coastal, and offshore waters over synoptic to century-long time scales. NGA sea surface temperature (SST) showed a larger positive trend of 0.22 ± 0.10 °C per decade over 1970–2021 compared to 0.10 ± 0.03 °C per decade over 1900–2021. Over synoptic time scales, SST covariance between two stations is small (<10%) when separation exceeds 100 km, while stations separated by 500 km retain 50% of their co-variability for seasonal and longer fluctuations. Relative to in situ sensor data, remotely sensed SST data has limited accuracy in some NGA settings, capturing 60–70% of the daily SST anomaly in coastal and offshore waters, but often <25% nearshore. North Pacific and NGA leading modes of SST variability leave 25–50% of monthly variance unresolved. Analysis of the 2014–2016 Pacific marine heatwave shows that NGA coastal surface temperatures warmed contemporaneously with offshore waters through 2013, but deep inner shelf waters (200–250 m) exhibited delayed warming. Offshore surface waters cooled from 2014 to 2016, while shelf waters continued to warm from the combined effects of local air-sea and advective heat fluxes. We find that annually averaged Sitka air temperature is a leading predictor (r 2 = 0.37, p < 0.05) for following-year NGA coastal water column temperature. Our results can inform future environmental monitoring designs, assist forward-looking projections of marine conditions, and show the importance of in situ measurements for nearshore studies that require knowledge of thermal conditions over time scales of days and weeks.

Alaska

A study of marine temperature variations in the northern Gulf of Alaska across years of marine heatwaves and cold spells

We use over 100 in situ and remotely sensed temperature datasets to investigate thermal variability within and across the intertidal nearshore, coastal and offshore waters of the northern Gulf of Alaska. For the years 1970 through 2019 we document a warming trend of 0.24±0.10 °C per decade for the coastal northern shelf (0-250 m depth average) and a Gulf-wide sea surface temperature (SST) trend of 0.25±0.11 °C per decade. The Gulf-wide SST trend in the last halfcentury is more than twice that of the 0.11±0.003 °C warming rate computed for 1900-2019. Decorrelation length scales vary regionally and correlation of synoptic scale fluctuations (less than one month) between two stations rapidly degrades with increasing station distance, accounting for less than 10% of the covariance for separations exceeding 100 km. In contrast, stations separated by as much as 500 km retain 50% of their covariance in common for seasonal and sub-seasonal fluctuations. While satellite-based measures often capture most of the daily SST anomaly in coastal and offshore waters, a significant portion of the variance (30-40%) can remain unresolved, even exceeding 75% in the nearshore realm. Similarly, the North Pacific and Gulf of Alaska leading modes of SST variability leave large fractions (25-50%) of the subseasonal thermal variance unresolved. These evaluations show the importance of in situ temperature records for studies that seek to understand mechanistic responses of marine organisms to habitat variability at biologically important time and space scales. We find that near-bottom temperature anomalies on the outer shelf vary inversely with surface temperatures and with near-bottom salinity, suggesting that thermal anomalies are also linked with nutrient flux anomalies. A case study of the recent Pacific marine heatwave and transition out of preceding cool years shows that the northern Gulf of Alaska surface temperatures (0-50 m) were elevated from 2014 to 2019 relative to the long-term record. Coastal temperatures warmed contemporaneously with offshore waters through the 2013 calendar year. In contrast, deep inner shelf waters (200-250 m) exhibited delayed warming relative to the surface and relative to deep waters offshore at the same depth. While offshore surface waters cooled from early 2014 into 1-2 Science Synthesis Final Report Gulf Watch Alaska, 2021 early 2016, the shelf continued to warm over this time as the effects of local air-sea and advective heat fluxes continued to permeate across the northern Gulf. These results highlight the importance of different heating mechanisms for surface and near-bottom waters across the northern Gulf of Alaska.

Alaska

Determination of water depth with high-resolution satellite imagery over variable bottom types

A standard algorithm for determining depth in clear water from passive sensors exists; but it requires tuning of five parameters and does not retrieve depths where the bottom has an extremely low albedo. To address these issues, we developed an empirical solution using a ratio of reflectances that has only two tunable parameters and can be applied to low-albedo features. The two algorithms--the standard linear transform and the new ratio transform--were compared through analysis of IKONOS satellite imagery against lidar bathymetry. The coefficients for the ratio algorithm were tuned manually to a few depths from a nautical chart, yet performed as well as the linear algorithm tuned using multiple linear regression against the lidar. Both algorithms compensate for variable bottom type and albedo (sand, pavement, algae, coral) and retrieve bathymetry in water depths of less than 10-15 m. However, the linear transform does not distinguish depths >15 m and is more subject to variability across the studied atolls. The ratio transform can, in clear water, retrieve depths in >25 m of water and shows greater stability between different areas. It also performs slightly better in scattering turbidity than the linear transform. The ratio algorithm is somewhat noisier and cannot always adequately resolve fine morphology (structures smaller than 4-5 pixels) in water depths >15-20 m. In general, the ratio transform is more robust than the linear transform.

Limnology and Oceanography