Geology topics

Kristi L. Wallace

Publications and source records attributed to Kristi L. Wallace.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2020

2016 Volcanic activity in Alaska—Summary of events and response of the Alaska Volcano Observatory

The Alaska Volcano Observatory responded to eruptions, volcanic unrest or suspected unrest, and seismic events at 15 volcanic centers in Alaska during 2016. The most notable volcanic activity consisted of eruptions at Pavlof and Bogoslof volcanoes. Both eruptions produced significant ash clouds that affected regional air travel. Mount Cleveland continued a pattern of dome growth followed by explosion, producing very short-lived ash clouds. An eruptive period at Shishaldin Volcano ended in 2016.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Aeolian remobilisation of volcanic ash: Outcomes of a workshop in the Argentinian Patagonia

During explosive volcanic eruptions, large quantities of tephra can be dispersed and deposited over wide areas. Following deposition, subsequent aeolian remobilisation of ash can potentially exacerbate primary impacts on timescales of months to millennia. Recent ash remobilisation events (e.g., following eruptions of Cordón Caulle 2011; Chile, and Eyjafjallajökull 2010, Iceland) have highlighted this to be a recurring phenomenon with consequences for human health, economic sectors, and critical infrastructure. Consequently, scientists from observatories and Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs), as well as researchers from fields including volcanology, aeolian processes and soil sciences, convened at the San Carlos de Bariloche headquarters of the Argentinian National Institute of Agricultural Technology to discuss the “state of the art” for field studies of remobilised deposits as well as monitoring, modeling and understanding ash remobilisation. In this article, we identify practices for field characterisation of deposits and active processes, including mapping, particle characterisation and sediment traps. Furthermore, since forecast models currently rely on poorly-constrained dust emission schemes, we call for laboratory and field measurements to better parameterise the flux of volcanic ash as a function of friction velocity. While source area location and extent are currently the primary inputs for dispersion models, once emission schemes become more sophisticated and better constrained, other parameters will also become important (e.g., source material volume and properties, effective precipitation, type and distribution of vegetation cover, friction velocity). Thus, aeolian ash remobilisation hazard and associated impact assessment require systematic monitoring, including the development of a regularly-updated spatial database of resuspension source areas.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗

USGS2020

Satellite observations of the 2016–2017 eruption of Bogoslof volcano: Aviation and ash fallout hazard implications from a water-rich eruption

Satellite data (GOES, VIIRS, MODIS, AVHRR) were used in near real-time during the 2016–2017 eruption of Bogoslof volcano, Alaska, to detect explosive eruptive activity and to characterize the resulting volcanic clouds. This study examines satellite data to estimate volcanic cloud heights and mass eruption rates for 47 of the 70 explosive events. Eighteen of the volcanic clouds reached an altitude in excess of 8.5 km asl, where they posed a potential hazard to aviation. We estimate eruption rates were in the range of 10 4 –10 7 kg/s. Eruption durations were available for 28 events, and the total mass of these events was 5.7 × 10 10 kg. Most of the explosions occurred from submarine vents, producing volcanic clouds with water-rich characteristics in satellite data. We infer that these water-rich (phreatomagmatic) events contained ice-coated ash particles, which changed their visible and multispectral characteristics. Only two of the explosions produced clouds with satellite characteristics that would be considered ash-rich. We conclude that these events were relatively dry eruptions with limited access to ocean water. Although some of the explosive events transitioned from submarine to subaerial vents, we observed no change in the character of the volcanic clouds during these transitions. We speculate that enhanced removal of fine-grained volcanic ash likely occurred due to aggregation, with implications for modeling ash transport and fallout. We conclude that the majority of Bogoslof’s water-rich volcanic clouds did contain volcanic ash despite the lack of conventional “ash signature” in satellite data. This has implications for satellite monitoring of future water-rich/shallow submarine eruptions.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Constraints on eruption processes and event masses for the 2016–2017 eruption of Bogoslof volcano, Alaska, through evaluation of IASI satellite SO2 masses and complementary datasets

Bogoslof volcano, Alaska, experienced at least 70 explosive eruptions between 12 December 2016 and 31 August 2017. Due to its remote location and limited local monitoring network, this eruption was monitored and characterized primarily using remote geophysical and satellite techniques. SO 2 emissions from Bogoslof were persistently detected by the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) satellite sensors. Of Bogoslof’s 70 explosive events, 50% produced measurable SO 2 masses ranging from 0.1 to 21.5 kt, with a median and standard deviation of 0.7 ± 4.0 kt SO 2 , respectively. Here, we compare IASI-derived SO 2 masses from Bogoslof events to complementary geophysical datasets to provide insights into eruption source processes, namely the degree of seawater scrubbing of water-soluble SO 2 and variations in magma flux. Correlations with the number of lightning strokes and infrasound energy are expected to indicate magma-flux as a controlling process, while correlations with infrasound frequency index are expected to indicate variations in vent-water content as a controlling factor. These comparisons suggest that the measured SO 2 masses are primarily a function of eruption magnitude (degassed magma mass) and that scrubbing of SO 2 emissions by vent seawater may have exerted a minor effect on the observed SO 2 masses. SO 2 masses were combined with petrologic constraints on melt inclusion and matrix glass S concentrations to calculate degassed magma masses and volumes. The cumulative SO 2 -derived degassed magma mass and estimated volume (dense-rock equivalent) for the full Bogoslof eruption were found to be 2.8 × 10 10 kg and 9.3 × 10 6 m 3 , respectively. When individual event masses are compared against event masses calculated using an empirical plume-height method, a strong correlation is found ( R 2 = 0.83), with better than order-of-magnitude agreement in most cases. These estimates of eruption masses provide useful information on the magnitude, behavior, and associated hazards of the 2016–2017 eruption, and potentially future unrest at Bogoslof volcano.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Geology and eruptive history of Bogoslof volcano

Bogoslof volcano is a shallow submarine/subaerial volcano in the southern Bering Sea about 100 km west of the community of Dutch Harbor, Alaska. The subaerial parts of the volcano consist of two small islands, Bogoslof Island and Fire Island, that together have a total area of about 1.6 km 2 . Bogoslof was first depicted on a Russian map in 1772 and since then has been observed and visited occasionally. The volcano has had at least nine periods of eruptive activity since 1796 and all of its historical eruptions have been similar in style. Historical Bogoslof eruptions involved the effusion of basalt, trachybasalt, basaltic trachyandesite, and trachyandesite lava domes with above sea level relief of 100–200 m. Many of the eruptions are accompanied by the formation of tuff rings and ejection of ballistic particles. Historical observations suggest that eruption clouds are relatively ash-poor. Minor ash fallout has typically occurred within about 100 km of the volcano. Many of the historical eruptions began at vents that were below sea level, and thus, seawater has played an important role in the style of eruptive activity exhibited by the volcano. At times, eruptive activity has been characterized by Surtseyan style eruptions and magma interaction with wet vent-fill deposits. At other times, the eruptive style has been more magmatically driven and has resulted in the formation of pyroclastic flows and small ash clouds. Preliminary studies of the deposits produced during the 2016–2017 eruption indicate vertical sequences of coarse-grained, horizontally bedded pyroclastic flow and fall deposits with numerous blocks, bombs, and lapilli of dense juvenile and accidental lithic material. These deposits were emplaced by near-vent pyroclastic flows, surges, and explosions some of which originated from shallow, highly crystalline cryptodomes.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗

USGS2020

Influence of grain size and shape on volcanic ash electrical conductivity

Few studies have examined the electrical properties of volcanic ash or considered the effects of physical characteristics, such as grain size and shape on its electrification. This study measures the resistivity of eight volcanic ash samples, three milled-samples and five natural ashfall samples from Alaska, U.S.A., using a current amplifier and examines the influence of particle size and particle shape on calculated grain conductivity. Grain conductivities are calculated by applying spherical, oblate, and prolate ellipsoidal shape parameters within a general effective media equation. Volcanic ash is an electrically insulating material with average resistivity values ranging from 1.732E 7 to 1.606E 12 Ωm. Results show that grain size has a limited impact on resistivity. Calculated grain conductivities remained within the same order of magnitude between the three different shape calculations ranging between 1.367E − 7 and 2.196E − 12 S/m using the spherical shape parameter. Electrical measurements of heterogeneous powders are complex and challenging. This study aims to expand the community's dataset and understanding of the electrical properties of volcanic ash and the impact of different physical characteristics. This has implication for understanding ash hazards to electrical infrastructure and volcanic lightning.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2019

Machine learning classifiers for attributing tephra to source volcanoes: An evaluation of methods for Alaska tephras

Glass composition-based correlations of volcanic ash (tephra) traditionally rely on extensive manual plotting. Many previous statistical methods for testing correlations are limited by using geochemical means, masking diagnostic variability. We suggest that machine learning classifiers can expedite correlation, quickly narrowing the list of likely candidates using well-trained models. Eruptives from Alaska's Aleutian Arc-Alaska Peninsula and Wrangell volcanic field were used as a test environment for 11 supervised classification algorithms, trained on nearly 2000 electron probe microanalysis measurements of glass major oxides, representing 10 volcanic sources. Artificial neural networks and random forests were consistently among the top-performing learners (accuracy and kappa > 0.96). Their combination as an average ensemble effectively improves their performance. Using this combined model on tephras from Eklutna Lake, south-central Alaska, showed that predictions match traditional methods and can speed correlation. Although classifiers are useful tools, they should aid expert analysis, not replace it. The Eklutna Lake tephras are mostly from Redoubt Volcano. Besides tephras from known Holocene-active sources, Holocene tephra geochemically consistent with Pleistocene Emmons Lake Volcanic Center (Dawson tephra), but from a yet unknown source, is evident. These tephras are mostly anchored by a highly resolved varved chronology and represent new important regional stratigraphic markers.

Journal of Quaternary Science↗

USGS2019

Petrology of the 2016–2017 eruption of Bogoslof Island

The 2016–2017 eruption of Bogoslof primarily produced crystal-rich amphibole basalts. The dominant juvenile tephra were highly microlitic with diktytaxitic vesicles, and amphiboles had large reaction rims. Both observations support a magma history of slow ascent and/or shallow stalling prior to eruption. Plagioclase-amphibole-clinopyroxene mineralogy are also suggestive of shallow magma crystallization. Lavas were emplaced as shallow submarine lava domes and cryptodomes that produced 70 relatively short-lived and water-rich explosions over the course of the 9-month long eruption. The explosions ejected older trachyandesite lavas that were likely uplifted by cryptodome emplacement that began in December 2016 and continued for many months. Trachyte pumice, similar in composition to a 1796 lava dome, was entrained in basalts by the end of the eruption. The pumice appears to be a largely crystalline magma that was rejuvenated, entrained in the basalt, and heated to ~1000 ℃. The composition of trachytes require differentiation through stronger amphibole control than the apparent shallow crustal evolution implied for the basalt. This suggests that they are magmas derived from a mid-crustal zone of amphibole crystallization. Nearby arc-front volcanoes that notably lack amphibole have strikingly similar compositional trends. Trace element signatures of the Bogoslof basalts, however, suggest derivation from a mantle source with residual garnet and lower-degree melting than basalts from nearby arc-front volcanoes. The diversity of magmas erupted at Bogoslof thus provides an opportunity not only to probe rare backarc compositions from the Aleutian arc, but also to examine the apparent role of amphibole in generating evolved compositions more broadly in arc environments.

Alaska↗

USGS2019

Evidence for frequent, large tsunamis spanning locked and creeping parts of the Aleutian megathrust

At the eastern end of the 1957 Andreanof Islands magnitude-8.6 earthquake rupture, Driftwood Bay (Umnak Island) and Stardust Bay (Sedanka Island) lie along presently locked and creeping parts of the Aleutian megathrust, respectively, based on satellite geodesy onshore. Both bays, located 200-km apart, face the Aleutian trench and harbor coastal evidence for tsunami inundation in 1957. Here we describe the evidence at Driftwood Bay, including eight sheets of landward-fining, normally-graded marine sand that extend up to 375-m inland and 23 m above mean tide level. Drift logs that corroborate historical accounts of 1957 tsunami runup on Umnak Island’s Pacific coast overlie the youngest sand sheet, which 137Cs activity shows was deposited in the decade before 1963. The older sand sheets probably record tsunamis prior to 1957 because an emergent coastal terrace lacks evidence for storm-wave erosion and overwash since ~2 ka. Comparisons of the Driftwood Bay and Stardust Bay tsunami histories suggest that at least twice in the past 1700 years inundation occurred at one site but not the other. In contrast, Bayesian age-depth modeling suggests that the two bays may record five tsunamis like the 1957 tsunami, generated by earthquake ruptures that spanned the presently locked and creeping parts of the Aleutian megathrust. However, serial tsunamis occurring within days to centuries cannot be precluded. Our findings imply 164–257-year recurrence intervals for large eastern Aleutian tsunamis and challenge the notion that creeping parts of the megathrust inferred from geodesy onshore pose lower earthquake and tsunami hazards than locked areas.

Geological Society of America Bulletin↗

USGS2019

Overview, chronology, and impacts of the 2016–2017 eruption of Bogoslof volcano, Alaska

The 2016–2017 eruption of Bogoslof volcano, a back-arc shallow submarine volcano in Alaska’s Aleutian arc, began in December 2016 and included 70 explosive events and at least two episodes of subaerial dome building. Because the volcano had no local monitoring stations during the eruption, a combination of distant seismic stations, regional infrasound sensors, lightning detection, a variety of satellite data and observer reports, and a field visit in 2018, were used to recreate the events that occurred during the nine-month eruption. Following precursory seismicity that started in September 2016, the eruption began in December 2016 with a series of explosive events that persisted through mid-March 2017. After a 6-week hiatus, activity resumed on May 17 and lasted through the end of August 2017 and consisted of additional explosions and two short-lived subaerial lava domes that formed in June and August. For most of the eruption, Bogoslof’s vent was submerged in shallow seawater, though during several of the longer events a subaerial edifice grew, and the vent migrated above sea level resulting in more ash-rich volcanic clouds. Eruptive products, geophysical signals, and eruptive style are all broadly consistent with vulcanian activity where slow magma ascent led to repetitive dome or plug formation, overpressurization in the upper conduit, and sudden release during short-lived explosions. Infiltration of seawater may have prohibited large domes from forming especially in the first half of the eruption when explosions were closely spaced in time. The largest four explosions in the sequence occurred after inter-event times of 10 days or more. Three events produced ashfall on nearby communities and mariners east and south of Bogoslof and the eruption resulted in dozens of flight cancelations and flight diversions around the volcano and its ash clouds.

Alaska↗

USGS2019

Lightning effects on the grain size distribution of volcanic ash

Natural volcanic ashfall samples were examined, and high-current (~100 kA) electrical impulse experiments were conducted to reveal the changes in grain size that can occur during lightning discharge. Experiments on pseudo ash samples manufactured from volcanic deposits of both rhyolitic and basaltic composition show that aggregates of very fine grained ash particles (<32 μm) melt and degas to form vesiculated pumice fragments >100 μm in size. In some cases, bubbles <5 μm in diameter expand and detach from the outer surface of the pumice to form hollow spheres of glass, one type of lightning-induced volcanic spherule, while other bubbles fragment. Volcanic ashfall from the 2009 Redoubt eruption and the 2016 Pavlof eruption contains both pumiceous grains and individual spherules. Results of this study reveal that volcanic lightning will alter the grain size distribution of ash through melting, vesiculation, and fragmentation of individual particles or ash aggregates.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2019

Late-Glacial paleoecology of the Middle Susitna Valley, Alaska: Environmental context for human dispersal

We present here the results of multi-proxy analyses (sediment geochemistry, diatoms, and pollen) from sediment cores collected at four lakes in the middle Susitna Valley, Alaska. These lakes form a transect from the tundra to the boreal forest. The retrieved cores span from ~12,000 cal yr BP to the present, with age control provided by radiometric dates and tephra deposits, some of which are newly identified. Results indicate that deglaciation occurred before 12,000 cal yr BP and that by that time, the lakes were deep, productive, and surrounded by shrub tundra. The lake with the highest sampling resolution indicates a brief climatic reversal ~11,500 cal yr BP with decreased diatom-inferred lake level and lowered lake productivity, and reduced shrub presence. During the early to middle Holocene, all of the sedimentary records provide evidence of climatic amelioration with tree expansion and productive lakes. A middle to late Holocene climatic deterioration with reduced trees and a shallower, less productive lake is also indicated. In addition, the prominent Watana tephra at ~4,000 cal yr BP likely reduced lake productivity and affected the vegetation. Even though the region was relatively productive soon after deglaciation, people did not occupy the region until ~11,000 cal yr BP, about 1000 years later, and then only sparsely. By the middle and late Holocene, the region was more densely populated and this shift in human occupancy presumably reflects changes in resource abundance, especially caribou. Whether the Watana ashfall influenced caribou abundance and thus people, is still under investigation, but given the tephra’s effect on vegetation and lake productivity, it seems likely.

Alaska↗

USGS2019

On the eruption age and provenance of the Old Crow tephra

Tephrochronology is used to correlate and reconstruct geographically disparate sedimentary records of changing environment, climate, and landscape throughout geologic time. Single tephra layers represent isochronous markers across broad regions, thus accurate and precise radiometric constraints on the timing of eruption are critical to their utility. The Old Crow tephra is found throughout eastern Beringia and represents the largest preserved Pleistocene ashfall event in the region. Despite its volume and significance as a stratigraphic marker, the provenance of this tephra is debated, and the interpreted eruption age of marine isotope stage (MIS) 5 at ∼125 ka has vacillated. To investigate provenance and eruption age, we develop a geochemical fingerprint for the Old Crow tephra via titanomagnetite geochemistry, and zircon crystallization/cooling age via coupled U/Pb, U/Th, and (U Th)/He zircon geochronology. Our results indicate that Old Crow oxides are geochemically distinct from the commonly assumed source-caldera system at the Emmons Lake Volcanic Center (ELVC). Zircon crystals from the Old Crow tephra range in age from Proterozoic to Pleistocene, with concordant zircon U/Pb, U/Th, and (U Th)/He dates on the youngest population of grains suggesting crystallization in their parent magma, and in turn eruption, at 202.9 ± 9.5 ka. We discuss strengths and shortcomings of our radiogenic datasets in light of this result and review the far-reaching implications of a change in Old Crow eruption age.

Alaska↗

USGS2019

Impacts of the 2015 eruption of Calbuco volcano on Chilean infrastructure, utilities, agriculture, and health

This report presents data and summarises the findings of a reconnaissance trip investigating the impacts of the April 2015 eruption of Calbuco volcano, Chile, undertaken in November-December 2016. This study is mostly focused on the Los Lagos region, focusing on impacts occurring within ~30 km of the volcano, which includes the tourism town of Puerto Varas and port city of Puerto Montt. Eruption impacts and response strategies may be similar for moderate size eruptions from other stratovolcanoes in temperate regions. As such, this study provides useful information for development of contingency plans at active volcanoes around the world. The 2015 eruption of Calbuco volcano began at 18:04 (local time) on 22 April 2015 and consisted of three eruptive phases. The first lasted for 1.5 hours and generated a 15-km eruption column and plume that was directed towards the northeast. Pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) were generated locally and distributed radially, affecting many of the major rivers. A second phase began at 01:00 (local time) on 23 April 2015, lasted six hours and generated a 17-km high eruption column and plume that was dispersed towards the north-northeast, and the most voluminous pyroclastic density currents of the sequence. A third eruptive phase occurred on 30 April 12:10 (local time) resulting in a 5-km column and plume dispersed towards the east.

Calbuco volcano↗

USGS2019

Volcanic ash resuspension from the Katmai Region

Volcanic ash is not only a hazard during an eruptive event; in strong winds, previously deposited loose volcanic ash can be picked up and reworked into dust clouds. Resuspension and transport of fine-grained volcanic ash from Katmai National Park and Preserve, Alaska has been observed and documented many times over the past several decades and has likely been occurring throughout the time interval since the 1912 Novarupta-Katmai eruption (Hadley et al. 2004). This eruption, the largest in the world during the 20th Century, produced approximately 4 cubic miles (17 cubic km) of ash deposits and 2.6 cubic miles (11 cubic km) of pyroclastic material that filled nearby valleys, creating what is today known as the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes (VTTS; Fierstein and Hildreth 1992). Ash in this valley is up to 660 feet (200 m) thick and the valley remains almost entirely free of vegetation (Figure 1).

Alaska↗

USGS2019

Volcanic hazards in Alaska’s National Parks

There are over 100 volcanoes in Alaska, 54 of which are considered historically active. A historically active volcano is one that fits one of the following criteria: a documented or strongly suspected eruption since the year 1700, persistent fumaroles near boiling point, significant deformation with a volcanic cause, or an earthquake swarm with a volcanic cause (Cameron and Schaefer, 2016). Alaska’s National Parks, Preserves, and Monuments contain a total of 14 historically active volcanoes (Fig. 1). There are numerous other volcanoes within Alaska’s National Parks, Preserves, and Monuments that are not considered historically active but which could erupt at some point in the future. In the past 100 years, there have been seven confirmed eruptions from historically active volcanoes within Alaska’s National Parks, Preserves, and Monuments. The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) monitors and conducts research on volcanoes in Alaska in order to better understand volcanic processes and determine the likelihood of future volcanic hazards, with a primary goal of informing the public and local, state, and federal entities about volcanic hazards and impending volcanic activity. Volcanic hazards in Alaska’s National Parks, Preserves, and Monuments include both proximal hazards (within 30 km or 19 mi of the vent) and distal hazards that are capable of impacting areas at the regional, national, or international scale.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Short-term forecasting and detection of explosions during the 2016–2017 eruption of Bogoslof volcano, Alaska

We describe a multidisciplinary approach to forecast, rapidly detect, and characterize explosive events during the 2016–2017 eruption of Bogoslof volcano, a back-arc shallow submarine volcano in Alaska’s Aleutian arc. The eruptive sequence began in December 2016 and included about 70 discrete explosive events. Because the volcano has no local monitoring stations, we used distant stations on the nearest volcanoes, Okmok (54 km) and Makushin (72 km), combined with regional infrasound sensors and lightning detection from the Worldwide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN). Pre-eruptive seismicity was detected for 12 events during the first half of the eruption; for all other events co-eruptive signals allowed for detection only. Monitoring of activity used a combination of scheduled checks combined with automated alarms. Alarms triggered on real-time data included real-time seismic amplitude measurement (RSAM); infrasound from several arrays, the closest being on Okmok; and lightning strokes detected from WWLLN within a 20-km radius of the volcano. During periods of unrest, a multidisciplinary response team of four people fulfilled specific roles to evaluate geophysical and remote-sensing data, run event-specific ash-cloud dispersion models, ensure interagency coordination, and develop and distribute of formalized warning products. Using this approach, for events that produced ash clouds ≥7.5 km above sea level, Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) called emergency response partners 15 min, and issued written notices 30 min, after event onset (mean times). Factors that affect timeliness of written warnings include event size and number of data streams available; bigger events and more data both decrease uncertainty and allow for faster warnings. In remote areas where airborne ash is the primary hazard, the approach used at Bogoslof is an effective strategy for hazard mitigation.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Alaska Volcano Observatory alert and forecasting timeliness: 1989–2017

The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) monitors volcanoes in Alaska and issues notifications and warnings of volcanic unrest and eruption. We evaluate the timeliness and accuracy of eruption forecasts for 53 eruptions at 20 volcanoes, beginning with Mount Redoubt's 1989–1990 eruption. Successful forecasts are defined as those where AVO issued a formal warning before eruption onset. These warning notifications are now part of AVO's Aviation Color Code and Volcanic Alert Level. This analysis considers only the start of an eruption, although many eruptions have multiple phases of activity. For the 21 eruptions at volcanoes with functioning local seismic networks, AVO has high forecasting success at volcanoes with: >15 years repose intervals and magmatic eruptions (4 out of 4, 100%); or larger eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 3 or greater; 6 out of 10, 60%). Therefore, AVO successfully forecast all four monitored, longer-repose period, VEI 3+ eruptions: Redoubt 1989–1990 and 2009, Spurr 1992, and Augustine 2005–2006. For volcanoes with functioning seismic monitoring networks, success rates are lower for: volcanoes with shorter repose periods (3 out of 16, 19%); more mafic compositions (3 out of 18, 17%); or smaller eruption size (VEI 2 or less, 1 out of 11, 9%). These eruptions (Okmok, Pavlof, Veniaminof, and Shishaldin) often lack detectable precursory signals. For 32 eruptions at volcanoes without functioning local seismic networks, the forecasting success rate is much lower (2, 6%; Kasatochi 2008 and Shishaldin 2014). For remote volcanoes where the main hazard is to aviation, rapid detection is a goal in the absence of in situ monitoring. Eruption detection has improved in recent years, shown by a decrease in the time between eruption onset and notification. Even limited seismic monitoring can detect precursory activity at volcanoes with certain characteristics (intermediate composition, longer repose times, larger eruptions), but difficulty persists in detecting subtle precursory activity at frequently active volcanoes with more mafic compositions. This suggests that volcano-specific characteristics should be considered when designing monitoring programs and evaluating forecasting success. More proximally-located sensors and data types are likely needed to forecast eruptive activity at frequently-active, more mafic volcanoes that generally produce smaller eruptions.

Alaska↗