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Kimberly P. Wickland

Publications and source records attributed to Kimberly P. Wickland.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS permafrost research determines the risks of permafrost thaw to biologic and hydrologic resources

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with university, Federal, Tribal, and independent partners, conducts fundamental research on the distribution, vulnerability, and importance of permafrost in arctic and boreal ecosystems. Scientists, land managers, and policy makers use USGS data to help make decisions for development, wildlife habitat, and other needs. Native villages and cities can forecast landscape change and where soils are vulnerable to thaw with more certainty. The scientific community can use USGS data to develop scenarios of future permafrost change.

Alaska

Stream dissolved organic matter in permafrost regions shows surprising compositional similarities but negative priming and nutrient effects

Permafrost degradation is delivering bioavailable dissolved organic matter (DOM) and inorganic nutrients to surface water networks. While these permafrost subsidies represent a small portion of total fluvial DOM and nutrient fluxes, they could influence food webs and net ecosystem carbon balance via priming or nutrient effects that destabilize background DOM. We investigated how addition of biolabile carbon (acetate) and inorganic nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) affected DOM decomposition with 28‐day incubations. We incubated late‐summer stream water from 23 locations nested in seven northern or high‐altitude regions in Asia, Europe, and North America. DOM loss ranged from 3% to 52%, showing a variety of longitudinal patterns within stream networks. DOM optical properties varied widely, but DOM showed compositional similarity based on Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT‐ICR MS) analysis. Addition of acetate and nutrients decreased bulk DOM mineralization (i.e., negative priming), with more negative effects on biodegradable DOM but neutral or positive effects on stable DOM. Unexpectedly, acetate and nutrients triggered breakdown of colored DOM (CDOM), with median decreases of 1.6% in the control and 22% in the amended treatment. Additionally, the uptake of added acetate was strongly limited by nutrient availability across sites. These findings suggest that biolabile DOM and nutrients released from degrading permafrost may decrease background DOM mineralization but alter stoichiometry and light conditions in receiving waterbodies. We conclude that priming and nutrient effects are coupled in northern aquatic ecosystems and that quantifying two‐way interactions between DOM properties and environmental conditions could resolve conflicting observations about the drivers of DOM in permafrost zone waterways.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles

Carbon dioxide and methane flux in a dynamic Arctic tundra landscape: Decadal‐scale impacts of ice wedge degradation and stabilization

Ice wedge degradation is a widespread occurrence across the circumpolar Arctic causing extreme spatial heterogeneity in water distribution, vegetation, and energy balance across landscapes. These heterogeneities influence carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) fluxes, yet there is little understanding of how they effect change in landscape‐level carbon (C) gas flux over time. We measured CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes in an area undergoing ice wedge degradation near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, and combined with repeat imagery analysis to estimate seasonal landscape‐level C flux response to geomorphic change. Net CO 2 and CH 4 emissions changed by −25% and +42%, respectively, resulting in a 14% increase in seasonal CO 2 ‐C equivalent emissions over 69 years as ice wedge degradation formed water‐filled troughs. The dynamic ice wedge degradation/stabilization process can cause significant changes in CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes over time, and the integration of this process is important to forecasting landscape‐level C fluxes in permafrost regions abundant in ice wedges.

Alaska

Patterns and isotopic composition of greenhouse gases under ice in lakes of interior Alaska

Arctic and boreal lake greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) are an important component of regional carbon (C) budgets. Yet the magnitude and seasonal patterns of lake GHG emissions are poorly constrained, because sampling is limited in these remote landscapes, particularly during winter and shoulder seasons. To better define patterns of under ice GHG content (and emissions potential at spring thaw), we surveyed carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) concentrations and stable isotopic composition during winter of 2017 in 13 lakes in the arid Yukon Flats Basin of interior Alaska, USA. Partial pressures of CO 2 and CH 4 ranged over three orders of magnitude, were positively correlated, and CO 2 exceeded CH 4 at all but one site. Shallow, organic matter-rich lakes located at lower elevations tended to have the highest concentrations of both gases, though CH 4 content was more heterogeneous and only abundant in oxygen-depleted lakes, while CO 2 was negatively correlated to oxygen content. Isotopic values of CO 2 spanned a narrow range (−10‰ to −23‰) compared to CH 4 , which ranged over 50‰ (−19‰ to −71‰), indicating CH 4 source pathways and sink strength varied widely between lakes. Miller-Tans and Keeling plots qualitatively suggested two groups of lakes were present; one with isotopically enriched source CH 4 possibly more dominated by acetoclastic methanogenesis, and one with depleted signatures suggesting a dominance of the hydrogenotrophic production. Overall, regional lake differences in winter under ice GHG content appear to track landscape position, oxygen, and organic matter content and composition, causing patterns to vary widely even within a relatively small geographic area of interior Alaska.

Alaska

Satellite and airborne remote sensing of gross primary productivity in boreal Alaskan lakes

In terrestrial and marine ecosystems, remote sensing has been used to estimate gross primary productivity (GPP) for decades, but few applications exist for shallow freshwater ecosystems.Here we show field-based GPP correlates with satellite and airborne lake color across a range of optically and limnologically diverse lakes in interior Alaska. A strong relationship between in situ GPP derived from stable oxygen isotopes (δ 18 O) and space-based lake color from satellites (e.g. Landsat-8, Sentinel-2 and CubeSats) and airborne imagery (AVIRIS-NG) demonstrates the potential power of this technique for improving spatial and temporal monitoring of lake GPP when coupled with additional field validation measurements across different systems. In shallow waters clear enough for sunlight to reach lake bottoms, both submerged vegetation (macrophytes and algae) and phytoplankton likely contribute to GPP. The stable isotopes and remotely sensed shallow lake color used here integrate both components. These results demonstrate the utility of lake color as a feasible means for mapping lake GPP from remote sensing. This novel methodology estimates GPP from remote sensing in shallow lakes by combining field measurements of oxygen isotopes with airborne, satellite and CubeSat imagery. This use of lake color for providing insight into ecological processes of shallow lakes is recommended, especially for remote arctic and boreal landscapes.

Alaska

Potential impacts of mercury released from thawing permafrost

Mercury (Hg) is a naturally occurring element that bonds with organic matter and, when converted to methylmercury, is a potent neurotoxicant. Here we estimate potential future releases of Hg from thawing permafrost for low and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios using a mechanistic model. By 2200, the high emissions scenario shows annual permafrost Hg emissions to the atmosphere comparable to current global anthropogenic emissions. By 2100, simulated Hg concentrations in the Yukon River increase by 14% for the low emissions scenario, but double for the high emissions scenario. Fish Hg concentrations do not exceed United States Environmental Protection Agency guidelines for the low emissions scenario by 2300, but for the high emissions scenario, fish in the Yukon River exceed EPA guidelines by 2050. Our results indicate minimal impacts to Hg concentrations in water and fish for the low emissions scenario and high impacts for the high emissions scenario.

Alaska

Hydrologic connectivity determines dissolved organic matter biogeochemistry in northern high-latitude lakes

Northern high‐latitude lakes are undergoing climate‐induced changes including shifts in their hydrologic connectivity with terrestrial ecosystems. How this will impact dissolved organic matter (DOM) biogeochemistry remains uncertain. We examined the drivers of DOM composition for lakes in the Yukon Flats Basin in Alaska, an arid region of low relief that is characteristic of over one‐quarter of circumpolar lake area. Utilizing the vascular plant biomarker lignin, chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM), and ultrahigh‐resolution mass spectrometry, we interpreted DOM compositional changes using lake‐water stable isotope (δ 18 O‐H 2 O) composition as a proxy for lake hydrologic connectivity with the landscape. We observed a relative decrease in CDOM in more hydrologically isolated lakes (enriched δ 18 O‐H 2 O) without a corresponding decrease in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration. Although DOC and CDOM were weakly correlated, a significant positive relationship between lignin and CDOM ( r 2 = 0.67) demonstrates that optical parameters are useful for estimating lignin concentration and thus vascular plant contribution to lake DOM. Indicators of allochthonous DOM, including lignin carbon normalized yields, CDOM aromaticity proxies, and relative abundances of polyphenolic and condensed aromatic compound classes, were negatively correlated with δ 18 O‐H 2 O ( r 2 > 0.45), suggesting there is little allochthonous DOM supplied to many of these hydrologically isolated lakes. We conclude that decreased lake hydrologic connectivity, driven by ongoing climate change (i.e., decreased precipitation, warming temperatures), will reduce allochthonous DOM contributions and shift lakes toward lower CDOM systems with ecosystem‐scale ramifications for heat transfer, photochemical reactions, productivity, and ultimately their biogeochemical function.

Alaska

Wind sheltering impacts on land-atmosphere fluxes over fens

Wetlands and their ability to mitigate climate change motivates restorative and protective action; however, scientific understanding of land-atmosphere interactions is restricted by our limited continuous observations of gaseous fluxes. Many wetlands are small in spatial scale and embedded in forested landscapes. Yet, little is known about how the relative sheltering of forests affects net carbon (C) and energy balance. Here, we analyze coterminous USGS and Ameriflux eddy covariance flux tower observations over three years in two shrub fens in Northern Wisconsin, one more sheltered (US-ALQ) than the other (US-Los). Unsurprisingly, the open site showed higher overall wind speeds. This should have implications for atmospheric fluxes in wetlands as wind-forced processes are essential in promoting gas exchange over water. While both sites had similar half-hourly net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) during daytime, there were significant differences in nighttime NEE, as well as in net radiation partitioning in early spring and late summer. Sensible heat (H) fluxes were smaller at the sheltered fen except for the months of July-September. In contrast, latent heat (LE) fluxes were higher in every month except July. Additionally, sheltered fen ecosystem respiration had a weaker linear correlation with air temperature (R: 0.08 versus 0.57 for the open fen). Our work suggests that canopy sheltering does not cause significant differences in half-hourly NEE during the day, but rather the largest differences such as lower CO2 emissions occur at nighttime due to higher variance at very low wind speeds. Sheltering also influenced direction of air flow, mean wind speeds in day versus night, energy balance, and sensible and latent heat fluxes. We discuss implications of these findings for wetland restoration.

Wisconsin

Dissolved organic carbon turnover in permafrost-influenced watersheds of interior Alaska: Molecular insights and the priming effect

Increased permafrost thaw due to climate change in northern high-latitudes has prompted concern over impacts on soil and stream biogeochemistry that affect the fate of dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Few studies to-date have examined the link between molecular composition and biolability of dissolved organic matter (DOM) mobilized from different soil horizons despite its importance in understanding carbon turnover in aquatic systems. Additionally, the effect of mixed DOM sources on microbial metabolism (e.g., priming) is not well understood. No studies to-date have addressed potential priming effects in northern high-latitude or permafrost-influenced aquatic ecosystems, yet these ecosystems may be hot spots of priming where biolabile, ancient permafrost DOC mixes with relatively stable, modern stream DOC. To assess biodegradability and priming of DOC in permafrost-influenced streams, we conducted 28 day bioincubation experiments utilizing a suite of stream samples and leachates of fresh vegetation and different soil horizons, including permafrost, from Interior Alaska. The molecular composition of unamended DOM samples at initial and final time points was determined by ultrahigh resolution mass spectrometry. Initial molecular composition was correlated to DOC biodegradability, particularly the contribution of energy-rich aliphatic compounds, and stream microbial communities utilized 50–56% of aliphatics in permafrost-derived DOM within 28 days. Biodegradability of DOC followed a continuum from relatively stable stream DOC to relatively biolabile DOC derived from permafrost, active layer organic soil, and vegetation leachates. Microbial utilization of DOC was ∼3–11% for stream bioincubations and ranged from 9% (active layer mineral soil-derived) to 66% (vegetation-derived) for leachate bioincubations. To investigate the presence or absence of a priming effect, bioincubation experiments included treatments amended with 1% relative carbon concentrations of simple, biolabile organic carbon substrates (i.e., primers). The amount of DOC consumed in primed treatments was not significantly different from the control in any of the bioincubation experiments after 28 days, making it apparent that the addition of biolabile permafrost-derived DOC to aquatic ecosystems will likely not enhance the biodegradation of relatively modern, stable DOC sources. Thus, future projections of carbon turnover in northern high-latitude region streams may not have to account for a priming effect.

Alaska

Negligible cycling of terrestrial carbon in many lakes of the arid circumpolar landscape

High-latitude environments store nearly half of the planet’s below-ground organic carbon (OC), mostly in perennially frozen permafrost soils. Climatic changes drive increased export of terrestrial OC into many aquatic networks, yet the role that circumpolar lakes play in mineralizing this carbon is unclear. Here we directly evaluate ecosystem-scale OC cycling for lakes of interior Alaska. This arid, low-relief lake landscape is representative of over a quarter of total northern circumpolar lake area, but is greatly under-represented in current studies. Contrary to projections based on work in other regions, the studied lakes had a negligible role in mineralizing terrestrial carbon; they received little OC from ancient permafrost soils, and had small net contribution to the watershed carbon balance. Instead, most lakes recycled large quantities of internally derived carbon fixed from atmospheric CO 2 , underscoring their importance as critical sites for material and energy provision to regional food webs. Our findings deviate from the prevailing paradigm that northern lakes are hotspots of terrestrial OC processing. The shallow and hydrologically disconnected nature of lakes in many arid circumpolar landscapes isolates them from terrestrial carbon processing under current climatic conditions.

Nature Geoscience

Ice wedge degradation and stabilization impacts water budgets and nutrient cycling in Arctic trough ponds

Trough ponds are ubiquitous features of Arctic landscapes and an important component of freshwater aquatic ecosystems. Permafrost thaw causes ground subsidence, creating depressions that gather water, creating ponds. Permafrost thaw also releases solutes and nutrients, which may fertilize these newly formed ponds. We measured water budget elements and chloride, ammonium, and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) across a chronosequence of trough ponds representing different stages of ice wedge degradation and stabilization. We developed a coupled hydrologic and biogeochemical model to explore how ice wedge degradation affects hydrology and nutrient availability in trough ponds in the advanced degradation stages (DAs), which are characterized by deep troughs with warmer temperatures relative to the other stages. DAs experienced greater evaporation than the other stages, and subsurface inflows entered the DAs from a wide area. Chloride accumulated in the ponds with time since thaw, implying that subsurface fluxes are delivering solutes from the thawing permafrost. Ammonium accumulated at high rates in the initial degradation stage and was seasonally depleted over the summer in all degradation stages. Ammonium trends in the DAs were consistent with high concentration inflows and in‐pond assimilation at rates between 0.37 and 2.0 mg N m −2 day −1 . Seasonal DON trends indicated that the accumulation of recalcitrant organic matter may eventually limit aquatic ecosystem production and foster pond infilling. These results provide direct evidence of nutrient release from thawing permafrost and the utilization of these nutrients by Arctic trough pond ecosystems and highlight infilling as a mechanism by which Arctic surface waters may be lost

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences

Dissolved organic carbon and nitrogen release from boreal Holocene permafrost and seasonally frozen soils of Alaska

Permafrost (perennially frozen) soils store vast amounts of organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) that are vulnerable to mobilization as dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and dissolved organic and inorganic nitrogen (DON, DIN) upon thaw. Such releases will affect the biogeochemistry of permafrost regions, yet little is known about the chemical composition and source variability of active-layer (seasonally frozen) and permafrost soil DOC, DON and DIN. We quantified DOC, total dissolved N (TDN), DON, and DIN leachate yields from deep active-layer and near-surface boreal Holocene permafrost soils in interior Alaska varying in soil C and N content and radiocarbon age to determine potential release upon thaw. Soil cores were collected at three sites distributed across the Alaska boreal region in late winter, cut in 15 cm thick sections, and deep active-layer and shallow permafrost sections were thawed and leached. Leachates were analyzed for DOC, TDN, nitrate (NO 3 − ), and ammonium (NH 4 + ) concentrations, dissolved organic matter optical properties, and DOC biodegradability. Soils were analyzed for C, N, and radiocarbon ( 14 C) content. Soil DOC, TDN, DON, and DIN yields increased linearly with soil C and N content, and decreased with increasing radiocarbon age. These relationships were significantly different for active-layer and permafrost soils such that for a given soil C or N content, or radiocarbon age, permafrost soils released more DOC and TDN (mostly as DON) per gram soil than active-layer soils. Permafrost soil DOC biodegradability was significantly correlated with soil Δ 14 C and DOM optical properties. Our results demonstrate that near-surface Holocene permafrost soils preserve greater relative potential DOC and TDN yields than overlying seasonally frozen soils that are exposed to annual leaching and decomposition. While many factors control the fate of DOC and TDN, the greater relative yields from newly thawed Holocene permafrost soils will have the largest potential impact in areas dominated by organic-rich soils.

Alaska

Permafrost stores a globally significant amount of mercury

Changing climate in northern regions is causing permafrost to thaw with major implications for the global mercury (Hg) cycle. We estimated Hg in permafrost regions based on in situ measurements of sediment total mercury (STHg), soil organic carbon (SOC), and the Hg to carbon ratio (R HgC ) combined with maps of soil carbon. We measured a median STHg of 43 ± 30 ng Hg g soil −1 and a median R HgC of 1.6 ± 0.9 μg Hg g C −1 , consistent with published results of STHg for tundra soils and 11,000 measurements from 4,926 temperate, nonpermafrost sites in North America and Eurasia. We estimate that the Northern Hemisphere permafrost regions contain 1,656 ± 962 Gg Hg, of which 793 ± 461 Gg Hg is frozen in permafrost. Permafrost soils store nearly twice as much Hg as all other soils, the ocean, and the atmosphere combined, and this Hg is vulnerable to release as permafrost thaws over the next century. Existing estimates greatly underestimate Hg in permafrost soils, indicating a need to reevaluate the role of the Arctic regions in the global Hg cycle.

Geophysical Research Letters

Variation in soil carbon dioxide efflux at two spatial scales in a topographically complex boreal forest

Carbon dynamics of high-latitude regions are an important and highly uncertain component of global carbon budgets, and efforts to constrain estimates of soil-atmosphere carbon exchange in these regions are contingent on accurate representations of spatial and temporal variability in carbon fluxes. This study explores spatial and temporal variability in soilatmosphere carbon dynamics at both fine and coarse spatial scales in a high-elevation, permafrost-dominated boreal black spruce forest. We evaluate the importance of landscape-level investigations of soil-atmosphere carbon dynamics by characterizing seasonal trends in soil-atmosphere carbon exchange, describing soil temperature-moisture-respiration relations, and quantifying temporal and spatial variability at two spatial scales: the plot scale (0–5 m) and the landscape scale (500–1000 m). Plot-scale spatial variability (average variation on a given measurement day) in soil CO 2 efflux ranged from a coefficient of variation (CV) of 0.25 to 0.69, and plot-scale temporal variability (average variation of plots across measurement days) in efflux ranged from a CV of 0.19 to 0.36. Landscape-scale spatial and temporal variability in efflux was represented by a CV of 0.40 and 0.31, respectively, indicating that plot-scale spatial variability in soil respiration is as great as landscape-scale spatial variability at this site. While soil respiration was related to soil temperature at both the plot- and landscape scale, landscape-level descriptions of soil moisture were necessary to define soil respiration-moisture relations. Soil moisture variability was also integral to explaining temporal variability in soil respiration. Our results have important implications for research efforts in high-latitude regions where remote study sites make landscape-scale field campaigns challenging.

Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research

Terrestrial wetlands

1. The assessment of terrestrial wetland carbon stocks has improved greatly since the First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (CCSP 2007) because of recent national inventories and the development of a U.S. soils database. Terrestrial wetlands in North America encompass an estimated 2.2 million km 2 , which constitutes about 37% of the global wetland area, with a soil and vegetation carbon pool of about 161 petagrams of carbon that represents approximately 36% of global wetland carbon stock. Forested wetlands compose 55% of the total terrestrial wetland area, with the vast majority occurring in Canada. Organic soil wetlands or peatlands contain 58% of the total terrestrial wetland area and 80% of the carbon ( high confidence, likely ). 2. North American terrestrial wetlands currently are a carbon dioxide sink of about 123 teragrams of carbon (Tg C) per year, with approximately 53% occurring in forested systems. However, North American terrestrial wetlands are a natural source of methane (CH 4 ), with mineral soil wetlands emitting 56% of the estimated total of 45 Tg C as CH 4 (CH 4 –C) per year ( medium confidence, likely ). 3. The current rate of terrestrial wetland loss is much less than historical rates (about 0.06% of the wetland area from 2004 to 2009), with restoration and creation nearly offsetting losses of natural wetlands. Although area losses are nearly offset, there is considerable uncertainty about the functional equivalence of disturbed, created, and restored wetlands when comparing them to undisturbed natural wetlands. Correspondingly, there remains considerable uncertainty about the effects of disturbance regimes on carbon stocks and greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes. For this reason, studies and monitoring systems are needed that compare carbon pools, rates of carbon accumulation, and GHG fluxes across disturbance gradients, including restored and created wetlands. Those studies will produce data that are needed for model applications ( high confidence, likely ).

Report

Biological and land use controls on the isotopic composition of aquatic carbon in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

Riverine ecosystems receive organic matter (OM) from terrestrial sources, internally produce new OM, and biogeochemically cycle and modify organic and inorganic carbon. Major gaps remain in the understanding of the relationships between carbon sources and processing in river systems. Here we synthesize isotopic, elemental, and molecular properties of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), particulate organic carbon (POC), and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) system above Wabasha, MN, including the main stem Mississippi River and its four major tributaries (Minnesota, upper Mississippi, St. Croix, and Chippewa Rivers). Our goal was to elucidate how biological processing modifies the chemical and isotopic composition of aquatic carbon pools during transport downstream in a large river system with natural and man-made impoundments. Relationships between land cover and DOC carbon-isotope composition, absorbance, and hydrophobic acid content indicate that DOC retains terrestrial carbon source information, while the terrestrial POC signal is largely replaced by autochthonous organic matter, and DIC integrates the influence of in-stream photosynthesis and respiration of organic matter. The UMR is slightly heterotrophic throughout the year, but pools formed by low-head navigation dams and natural impoundments promote a shift towards autotrophic conditions, altering aquatic ecosystem dynamics and POC and DIC composition. Such changes likely occur in all major river systems affected by low-head dams and need to be incorporated into our understanding of inland water carbon dynamics and processes controlling CO 2 emissions from rivers, as new navigation and flood control systems are planned for future river and water resources management.

Upper Mississippi River Basin

Methane emissions from oceans, coasts, and freshwater habitats: New perspectives and feedbacks on climate

Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas, and atmospheric concentrations have risen 2.5 times since the beginning of the Industrial age. While much of this increase is attributed to anthropogenic sources, natural sources, which contribute between 35% and 50% of global methane emissions, are thought to have a role in the atmospheric methane increase, in part due to human influences. Methane emissions from many natural sources are sensitive to climate, and positive feedbacks from climate change and cultural eutrophication may promote increased emissions to the atmosphere. These natural sources include aquatic environments such as wetlands, freshwater lakes, streams and rivers, and estuarine, coastal, and marine systems. Furthermore, there are significant marine sediment stores of methane in the form of clathrates that are vulnerable to mobilization and release to the atmosphere from climate feedbacks, and subsurface thermogenic gas which in exceptional cases may be released following accidents and disasters (North Sea blowout and Deepwater Horizon Spill respectively). Understanding of natural sources, key processes, and controls on emission is continually evolving as new measurement and modeling capabilities develop, and different sources and processes are revealed. This special issue of Limnology and Oceanography gathers together diverse studies on methane production, consumption, and emissions from freshwater, estuarine, and marine systems, and provides a broad view of the current science on methane dynamics of aquatic ecosystems. Here, we provide a general overview of aquatic methane sources, their contribution to the global methane budget, and key uncertainties. We then briefly summarize the contributions to and highlights of this special issue.

Limnology and Oceanography

Potential carbon emissions dominated by carbon dioxide from thawed permafrost soils

Increasing temperatures in northern high latitudes are causing permafrost to thaw , making large amounts of previously frozen organic matter vulnerable to microbial decomposition . Permafrost thaw also creates a fragmented landscape of drier and wetter soil conditions that determine the amount and form (carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), or methane (CH 4 )) of carbon (C) released to the atmosphere. The rate and form of C release control the magnitude of the permafrost C feedback, so their relative contribution with a warming climate remains unclear . We quantified the effect of increasing temperature and changes from aerobic to anaerobic soil conditions using 25 soil incubation studies from the permafrost zone. Here we show, using two separate meta-analyses, that a 10 °C increase in incubation temperature increased C release by a factor of 2.0 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.8 to 2.2). Under aerobic incubation conditions, soils released 3.4 (95% CI, 2.2 to 5.2) times more C than under anaerobic conditions. Even when accounting for the higher heat trapping capacity of CH 4 , soils released 2.3 (95% CI, 1.5 to 3.4) times more C under aerobic conditions. These results imply that permafrost ecosystems thawing under aerobic conditions and releasing CO 2 will strengthen the permafrost C feedback more than waterlogged systems releasing CO 2 and CH 4 for a given amount of C.

Nature Climate Change