Geology topics

Kevin E. Doherty

Publications and source records attributed to Kevin E. Doherty.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Status of greater sage-grouse in the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment—An evaluation of population trends, habitat selection, and efficacy of conservation actions

Preface This study was completed to provide timely scientific information regarding greater sage-grouse population trends, habitat selection, and the efficacy of previous conservation actions implemented to benefit the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment (DPS). Specifically, we provide these analyses to inform the current (2024) status review and pending listing decision for the DPS being undertaken by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. These findings provide updated, detailed, and comprehensive information regarding the status of a geographically isolated and genetically distinct population of a species of high conservation concern and their habitat. Importantly, this report also provides information on the efficacy of previously implemented conservation actions targeting the Bi-State DPS in a framework that is transferable throughout the species’ range.

California, Nevada↗

USGS2024

Wildfire probability estimated from recent climate and fine fuels across the big sagebrush region

Background Wildfire is a major proximate cause of historical and ongoing losses of intact big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) plant communities and declines in sagebrush obligate wildlife species. In recent decades, fire return intervals have shortened and area burned has increased in some areas, and habitat degradation is occurring where post-fire re-establishment of sagebrush is hindered by invasive annual grasses. In coming decades, the changing climate may accelerate these wildfire and invasive feedbacks, although projecting future wildfire dynamics requires a better understanding of long-term wildfire drivers across the big sagebrush region. Here, we integrated wildfire observations with climate and vegetation data to derive a statistical model for the entire big sagebrush region that represents how annual wildfire probability is influenced by climate and fine fuel characteristics. Results Wildfire frequency varied significantly across the sagebrush region, and our statistical model represented much of that variation. Biomass of annual and perennial grasses and forbs, which we used as proxies for fine fuels, influenced wildfire probability. Wildfire probability was highest in areas with high annual forb and grass biomass, which is consistent with the well-documented phenomenon of increased wildfire following annual grass invasion. The effects of annuals on wildfire probability were strongest in places with dry summers. Wildfire probability varied with the biomass of perennial grasses and forbs and was highest at intermediate biomass levels. Climate, which varies substantially across the sagebrush region, was also predictive of wildfire probability, and predictions were highest in areas with a low proportion of precipitation received in summer, intermediate precipitation, and high temperature. Conclusions We developed a carefully validated model that contains relatively simple and biologically plausible relationships, with the goal of adequate performance under novel conditions so that useful projections of average annual wildfire probability can be made given general changes in conditions. Previous studies on the impacts of vegetation and climate on wildfire probability in sagebrush ecosystems have generally used more complex machine learning approaches and have usually been applicable to only portions of the sagebrush region. Therefore, our model complements existing work and forms an additional tool for understanding future wildfire and ecological dynamics across the sagebrush region.

Fire Ecology↗

USGS2024

Climate change amplifies ongoing declines in sagebrush ecological integrity

Understanding how climate change will contribute to ongoing declines in sagebrush ecological integrity is critical for informing natural resource management, yet complicated by interactions with wildfire and biological invasions. Here, we assessed potential future changes in sagebrush ecological integrity under a range of scenarios using an individual plant-based simulation model, integrated with remotely sensed estimates of current sagebrush ecological integrity. The simulation model allowed us to estimate how climate change, wildfire, and invasive annuals interact to alter the potential abundance of key plant functional types that influence sagebrush ecological integrity: sagebrush, perennial grasses, and annual grasses. Our results suggest that climate driven reductions in sagebrush ecological integrity may occur over broader areas than increases in sagebrush ecological integrity. Declines in sagebrush ecological integrity were most likely in hot and dry regions while increases were more likely in cool and wet regions. Increases in wildfire probability, largely driven by increasing invasive annual grass abundance, resulted in projected declines in sagebrush abundance and sagebrush ecological integrity in some regions, particularly the Great Basin. The most common projected transitions in sagebrush habitat classification were declines from Core Sagebrush Area to Growth Opportunity Area and from Growth Opportunity Area to Other Rangeland Area. Responses varied considerably across projections from different global climate models, highlighting the importance of climate uncertainty. However, our projections tended to be robust in areas that currently have the highest sagebrush ecological integrity. Our results provide a long-term perspective on the vulnerability of sagebrush ecosystems to climate change and may inform geographic prioritization of conservation and restoration investments. These results suggest that ongoing threats, such as the continued invasion by annual grasses and increased wildfire frequency, are likely to be amplified by climate change, and imply that the current imbalance between capacity for conservation to address threats to sagebrush will grow as the climate warms.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗

USGS2024

Cooperative conservation actions improve sage-grouse population performance within the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment

Developing a robust monitoring framework that integrates efficacy assessments of cooperative conservation and restoration actions in relation to population viability is critical for successful long-term recovery of target ecosystems and species. However, often it is difficult to quantify conservation action efficacy because of the complex, dynamic nature of ecosystem processes and practical limitations associated with assessing target species’ population dynamics. Here, we present an analytical framework that allows for quantification of conservation action efficacy using greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter, sage-grouse) within the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment which borders Nevada and California. This framework utilizes web-based repositories of conservation efforts carried out in sagebrush ecosystems and readily fits within contemporary sagebrush conservation design strategies. We employed a state-space model within a Bayesian framework to estimate abundance (N) as inputs for a progressive change before-after-control-impact paired series (BACIPS) design. Count data from 57 leks (monitored between 2003–2021) coupled with 85 unique actions (initiated between 2012–2019) provided clear evidence that conservation actions increased population abundance, on average, by 4.4% annually across the study area, resulting in a 37.4% cumulative increase since 2012. Population gains varied by the type of conservation action and according to the number of lag years following its implementation.

California, Nevada↗

USGS2024

Closing the conservation gap in the sagebrush biome: Spatial targeting and coordination are needed for conservation to keep pace with sagebrush losses

Core sagebrush areas (CSAs), patches of high sagebrush ecological integrity, continue to decline despite significant conservation and restoration investments across the sagebrush biome. Historically, conservation decisions in the biome have been driven by wildlife species-specific demands, but increasing recognition of the scale of threats and the pace of ecosystem degradation has compelled a shift towards threat-based ecosystem management. Therefore, there is a need to evaluate the scale of conservation implementation relative to the rate of degradation or loss from specific threats to the biome to assess whether a conservation deficit exists. To this end, we: 1) quantified and compared the average hectares of conservation practices implemented annually relative to the hectares of CSA loss attributed to each threat; 2) evaluated the relative amount of conservation actions in core sagebrush areas, growth opportunity areas, and other rangeland areas; and 3) assessed how much additional conservation may be needed to stop CSA declines. We then quantified how better spatial targeting and enhanced coordination might reduce the total additional amount of future conservation needed, and evaluated how an influx of resources can close the conservation gap, or the deficit between the conservation needed to offset annual loss and degradation and the capacity for conservation implementation. We found that current rates of conservation (e.g., hectares treated annually) are markedly lower than rates of CSA loss (∼10% of average annual loss). Furthermore, most conservation actions, ∼90% for some treatment types, occurred outside of CSAs likely reducing the efficacy of these conservation actions at retaining and restoring intact sagebrush rangelands. Additionally, we found that conservation efforts will need to increase by more than an order of magnitude (at least 10x) annually to halt CSA declines. However, through better spatial targeting of conservation actions, the increase in conservation needed to stop CSA loss could be reduced by 70% or more. This analysis demonstrates the divergent futures that may await the sagebrush biome pending key decisions regarding conservation targeting, stakeholder cooperation, and the strategic addition of resources.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗

USGS2024

A strategic and science-based framework for management of invasive annual grasses in the sagebrush biome

In the last 20 years, the North American sagebrush biome has lost over 500,000 ha of intact and largely intact sagebrush plant communities on an annual basis. Much of this loss has been associated with expansion and infilling of invasive annual grasses (IAGs). These species are highly competitive against native perennial grasses in disturbed environments, and create fuel conditions that increase both the likelihood of fire ignition and the ease of wildfire spread across large landscapes. Given the current rate of IAG expansion in both burned and unburned rangelands, ameliorating the IAG threat will involve a range-wide paradigm shift from opportunistic and reactive management, to a framework that spatially prioritizes maintenance of largely intact, uninvaded areas and improvement of invaded habitats in strategic locations. We created a framework accompanied by biome-wide priority maps using geospatial overlays that target areas to MAINTAIN large, uninvaded areas as natural resource anchors through activities to prevent IAGs and IMPROVE areas to reduce invasions with the highest potential for management efforts to succeed in restoring large, intact landscapes. We then offer three case studies to illustrate the use of these concepts and map products at multiple scales. Our map products operate at the biome scale using regional data sources but additional data sources may be needed to inform local conservation planning. However, the basic strategic management principles of a) maintaining the intact and uninvaded areas that we can least afford to lose to IAGs and b) improving areas where we have a higher likelihood of restoration success, is timely, relevant, and scalable from the biome to local levels.

Rangeland Ecology & Management↗

USGS2024

Evaluating the sagebrush conservation design through the lens of a sagebrush indicator species

Sagebrush ecosystems support a suite of unique species such as the emblematic greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; sage-grouse) but are under increasing pressure from anthropogenic stressors such as annual grass invasion, conifer encroachment, altered wildfire regimes, and land use change. We examined the ability of an ecosystem-based framework for sagebrush conservation, the sagebrush conservation design (SCD) strategy, and the associated model of sagebrush ecological integrity (SEI), to identify and rank priority habitats for sage-grouse, a sagebrush indicator species. We compared sage-grouse population trends from 1996–2021 across the three ranked SEI categories. We then modeled those trends directly as a function of the same landcover predictors underlying SEI, used the median trend estimates to recategorize the sage-grouse’s range, and used spatial correlation methods to compare our sage-grouse performance categories with those of SEI. Finally, we compared the sage-grouse condition categories, predicted by our landcover-based model, to empirical trends derived from population count data. We found that the SCD and SEI were effective tools for identifying and ranking priority habitats for sage-grouse. Population trends were stable in the core areas identified by SEI but declining in the lower (i.e., growth and other) condition categories. As a result, core areas encompassed an increasingly larger share of the total sage-grouse population in a disproportionately smaller area. Our model supports the general functional relationships between landcover and sage-grouse performance suggested by SEI. We found strong spatial congruence between our categories of predicted sage-grouse population performance, the condition categories of SEI, and empirical trends derived from population count data. Our analysis demonstrates that proactive ecosystem-based approaches to the conservation of the sagebrush biome can help optimize the return on limited conservation resources and benefits for sagebrush obligate species and help reduce some of the real and perceived conflicts inherent in single-species management.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, New Mexico, ↗

USGS2023

The ties that bind the sagebrush biome: Integrating genetic connectivity into range-wide conservation of greater sage-grouse

Conserving genetic connectivity is fundamental to species persistence, yet rarely is made actionable into spatial planning for imperilled species. Climate change and habitat degradation have added urgency to embrace connectivity into networks of protected areas. Our two-step process integrates a network model with a functional connectivity model, to identify population centres important to maintaining genetic connectivity then to delineate those pathways most likely to facilitate connectivity thereamong for the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ), a species of conservation concern ranging across eleven western US states and into two Canadian provinces. This replicable process yielded spatial action maps, able to be prioritized by importance to maintaining range-wide genetic connectivity. We used these maps to investigate the efficacy of 3.2 million ha designated as priority areas for conservation (PACs) to encompass functional connectivity. We discovered that PACs encompassed 41.1% of cumulative functional connectivity—twice the amount of connectivity as random—and disproportionately encompassed the highest-connectivity landscapes. Comparing spatial action maps to impedances to connectivity such as cultivation and woodland expansion allows both planning for future management and tracking outcomes from past efforts.

western United States↗

USGS2023

A targeted annual warning system developed for the conservation of a sagebrush indicator species

A fundamental goal of population ecologists is to identify drivers responsible for temporal variation in abundance. Understanding whether variation is associated with environmental stochasticity or anthropogenic disturbances, which are more amenable to management action, is crucial yet difficult to achieve. Here, we present a hierarchical monitoring framework that models rates of change in abundance from spatially structured populations and identifies when local declines fall out of synchrony with trends at larger spatial scales. Importantly, the framework provides signals that alert managers to the categorical significance of observed declines while avoiding signals where declines result from drivers operating at larger spatial scales (e.g., periodic reductions in primary productivity owing to drought). We demonstrate utility through application to a rapidly declining sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) indicator species (greater sage-grouse; Centrocercus urophasianus ) using 30 years (1990–2019) of count data collected from greater than 4,400 leks (habitual breeding sites) distributed across the western United States. Results revealed population declines, immediately preceding triggers (2–4-year period), ranging between 58 and 68%. Conversely, population trends unassociated with triggers showed little-to-no sign of decline. Retrospective application of the monitoring framework indicated an average annual rate of 1.7% of leks or 1.3% of neighborhood clusters (lek aggregations) would have required management intervention to reverse range-wide declines and stabilize the U.S. population as a whole.

Ecological Indicators↗

USGS2018

Quantifying functional connectivity: The role of breeding habitat, abundance, and landscape features on range‐wide gene flow in sage‐grouse

Functional connectivity, quantified using landscape genetics, can inform conservation through the identification of factors linking genetic structure to landscape mechanisms. We used breeding habitat metrics, landscape attributes, and indices of grouse abundance, to compare fit between structural connectivity and genetic differentiation within five long‐established Sage‐Grouse Management Zones (MZ) I‐V using microsatellite genotypes from 6,844 greater sage‐grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) collected across their 10.7 million‐km 2 range. We estimated structural connectivity using a circuit theory‐based approach where we built resistance surfaces using thresholds dividing the landscape into “habitat” and “nonhabitat” and nodes were clusters of sage‐grouse leks (where feather samples were collected using noninvasive techniques). As hypothesized, MZ‐specific habitat metrics were the best predictors of differentiation. To our surprise, inclusion of grouse abundance‐corrected indices did not greatly improve model fit in most MZs. Functional connectivity of breeding habitat was reduced when probability of lek occurrence dropped below 0.25 (MZs I, IV) and 0.5 (II), thresholds lower than those previously identified as required for the formation of breeding leks, which suggests that individuals are willing to travel through undesirable habitat. The individual MZ landscape results suggested terrain roughness and steepness shaped functional connectivity across all MZs. Across respective MZs, sagebrush availability (<10%–30%; II, IV, V), tree canopy cover (>10%; I, II, IV), and cultivation (>25%; I, II, IV, V) each reduced movement beyond their respective thresholds. Model validations confirmed variation in predictive ability across MZs with top resistance surfaces better predicting gene flow than geographic distance alone, especially in cases of low and high differentiation among lek groups. The resultant resistance maps we produced spatially depict the strength and redundancy of range‐wide gene flow and can help direct conservation actions to maintain and restore functional connectivity for sage‐grouse.

Evolutionary Applications↗

USGS2018

Greater sage-grouse science (2015–17)—Synthesis and potential management implications

Executive Summary The greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter called “sage-grouse”), a species that requires sagebrush (Artemisia spp.), has experienced range-wide declines in its distribution and abundance. These declines have prompted substantial research and management investments to improve the understanding of sage-grouse and its habitats and reverse declines in distribution and population numbers. Over the past two decades, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) has responded to eight petitions to list the sage-grouse under the Endangered Species Act of 1973, with the completion of the most recent listing determination in September 2015. At that time, the USFWS determined that the sage-grouse did not warrant a listing, primarily because of the large scale science-based conservation and planning efforts completed or started by Federal, State, local agencies, private landowners, and other entities across the range. The planning efforts culminated in the development of the 2015 Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and U.S. Forest Service Land Use Plan Amendments, which provided regulatory certainty and commitment from Federal land-management agencies to limit, mitigate, and track anthropogenic disturbance and implement other sage-grouse conservation measures. After these policy decisions, the scientific community has continued to refine and expand the knowledge available to inform implementation of management actions, increase the efficiency and effectiveness of those actions, and continue developing an overall understanding of sage-grouse populations, habitat requirements, and their response to human activity and other habitat changes. The development of science has been driven by multiple prioritization documents including the “Greater Sage-Grouse National Research Strategy” (Hanser and Manier, 2013) and, most recently, the “Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy Actionable Science Plan” (Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy Actionable Science Plan Team, 2016). In October 2017, after a review of the 2015 Federal plans relative to State sage-grouse plans, in accordance with Secretarial Order 3353, the BLM issued a notice of intent to consider whether to amend some, all, or none of the 2015 land use plans. At that time, the BLM requested the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to inform this effort through the development of an annotated bibliography of sage-grouse science published since January 2015 and a report that synthesized and outlined the potential management implications of this new science. Development of the annotated bibliography resulted in the identification and summarization of 169 peer-reviewed scientific publications and reports. The USGS then convened an interagency team (hereafter referred to as the “team”) to develop this report that focuses on the primary topics of importance to the ongoing management of sage-grouse and their habitats. The team developed this report in a three-step process. First, the team identified six primary topic areas for discussion based on the members’ collective knowledge regarding sage-grouse, their habitats, and threats to either or both. Second, the team reviewed all the material in the “Annotated Bibliography of Scientific Research on Greater Sage-Grouse Published since January 2015” to identify the science that addressed the topics. Third, team members discussed the science related to each topic, evaluated the consistency of the science with existing knowledge before 2015, and summarized the potential management implications of this science. The six primary topics identified by the team were: Multiscale habitat suitability and mapping tools Discrete anthropogenic activities Diffuse activities Fire and invasive species Restoration effectiveness Population estimation and genetics

Open-File Report↗

USGS2016

Wildfire, climate, and invasive grass interactions negatively impact an indicator species by reshaping sagebrush ecosystems

Iconic sagebrush ecosystems of the American West are threatened by larger and more frequent wildfires that can kill sagebrush and facilitate invasion by annual grasses, creating a cycle that alters sagebrush ecosystem recovery post disturbance. Thwarting this accelerated grass–fire cycle is at the forefront of current national conservation efforts, yet its impacts on wildlife populations inhabiting these ecosystems have not been quantified rigorously. Within a Bayesian framework, we modeled 30 y of wildfire and climatic effects on population rates of change of a sagebrush-obligate species, the greater sage-grouse, across the Great Basin of western North America. Importantly, our modeling also accounted for variation in sagebrush recovery time post fire as determined by underlying soil properties that influence ecosystem resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasion. Our results demonstrate that the cumulative loss of sagebrush to direct and indirect effects of wildfire has contributed strongly to declining sage-grouse populations over the past 30 y at large spatial scales. Moreover, long-lasting effects from wildfire nullified pulses of sage-grouse population growth that typically follow years of higher precipitation. If wildfire trends continue unabated, model projections indicate sage-grouse populations will be reduced to 43% of their current numbers over the next three decades. Our results provide a timely example of how altered fire regimes are disrupting recovery of sagebrush ecosystems and leading to substantial declines of a widespread indicator species. Accordingly, we present scenario-based stochastic projections to inform conservation actions that may help offset the adverse effects of wildfire on sage-grouse and other wildlife populations.

PNAS↗

USGS2016

The integrated rangeland fire management strategy actionable science plan

The Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy (hereafter Strategy, DOI 2015) outlined the need for coordinated, science-based adaptive management to achieve long-term protection, conservation, and restoration of the sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystem. A key component of this management approach is the identification of knowledge gaps that limit implementation of effective strategies to meet current management challenges. The tasks and actions identified in the Strategy address several broad topics related to management of the sagebrush ecosystem. This science plan is organized around these topics and specifically focuses on fire, invasive plant species and their effects on altering fire regimes, restoration, sagebrush and greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), and climate and weather.

Report↗

USGS2016

Using resilience and resistance concepts to manage threats to sagebrush ecosystems, Gunnison sage-grouse, and Greater sage-grouse in their eastern range: A strategic multi-scale approach

This report provides a strategic approach developed by a Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies interagency working group for conservation of sagebrush ecosystems, Greater sage-grouse, and Gunnison sage-grouse. It uses information on (1) factors that influence sagebrush ecosystem resilience to disturbance and resistance to nonnative invasive annual grasses and (2) distribution and relative abundance of sage-grouse populations to address persistent ecosystem threats, such as invasive annual grasses and wildfire, and land use and development threats, such as oil and gas development and cropland conversion, to develop effective management strategies. A sage-grouse habitat matrix links relative resilience and resistance of sagebrush ecosystems with modeled sage-grouse breeding habitat probabilities to help decisionmakers assess risks and determine appropriate management strategies at both landscape and site scales. Areas for targeted management are assessed by overlaying matrix components with Greater sage-grouse Priority Areas for Conservation and Gunnison sage-grouse critical habitat and linkages, breeding bird concentration areas, and specific habitat threats. Decision tools are discussed for determining the suitability of target areas for management and the most appropriate management actions. A similar approach was developed for the Great Basin that was incorporated into the Federal land use plan amendments and served as the basis of a Bureau of Land Management Fire and Invasives Assessment Tool, which was used to prioritize sage-grouse habitat for targeted management activities.

General Technical Report↗

USGS2015

Long-term effects of wildfire on greater sage-grouse - integrating population and ecosystem concepts for management in the Great Basin

Greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereinafter, sage-grouse) are a sagebrush obligate species that has declined concomitantly with the loss and fragmentation of sagebrush ecosystems across most of its geographical range. The species currently is listed as a candidate for federal protection under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). Increasing wildfire frequency and changing climate frequently are identified as two environmental drivers that contribute to the decline of sage-grouse populations, yet few studies have rigorously quantified their effects on sage-grouse populations across broad spatial scales and long time periods. To help inform a threat assessment within the Great Basin for listing sage-grouse in 2015 under the ESA, we conducted an extensive analysis of wildfire and climatic effects on sage-grouse population growth derived from 30 years of lek-count data collected across the hydrographic Great Basin of Western North America. Annual (1984–2013) patterns of wildfire were derived from an extensive dataset of remotely sensed 30-meter imagery and precipitation derived from locally downscaled spatially explicit data. In the sagebrush ecosystem, underlying soil conditions also contribute strongly to variation in resilience to disturbance and resistance to plant community changes (R&R). Thus, we developed predictions from models of post-wildfire recovery and chronic effects of wildfire based on three spatially explicit R&R classes derived from soil moisture and temperature regimes. We found evidence of an interaction between the effects of wildfire (chronically affected burned area within 5 kilometers of a lek) and climatic conditions (spring through fall precipitation) after accounting for a consistent density-dependent effect. Specifically, burned areas near leks nullifies population growth that normally follows years with relatively high precipitation. In models, this effect results in long-term population declines for sage-grouse despite cyclic periods of high precipitation. Based on 30-year projections of burn and recovery rates, our population model predicted steady and substantial long-term declines in population size across the Great Basin. Further, example management scenarios that may help offset adverse wildfire effects are provided by models of varying levels of fire suppression and post-wildfire restoration that focus on areas especially important to sage-grouse populations. These models illustrate how sage-grouse population persistence likely will be compromised as sagebrush ecosystems and sage-grouse habitat are degraded by wildfire, especially in a warmer and drier climate, and by invasion of annual grasses that can increase wildfire frequency and size in the Great Basin.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

USGS2015

Landscape characteristics influencing the genetic structure of greater sage-grouse within the stronghold of their range: a holistic modeling approach

Given the significance of animal dispersal to population dynamics and geographic variability, understanding how dispersal is impacted by landscape patterns has major ecological and conservation importance. Speaking to the importance of dispersal, the use of linear mixed models to compare genetic differentiation with pairwise resistance derived from landscape resistance surfaces has presented new opportunities to disentangle the menagerie of factors behind effective dispersal across a given landscape. Here, we combine these approaches with novel resistance surface parameterization to determine how the distribution of high- and low-quality seasonal habitat and individual landscape components shape patterns of gene flow for the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) across Wyoming. We found that pairwise resistance derived from the distribution of low-quality nesting and winter, but not summer, seasonal habitat had the strongest correlation with genetic differentiation. Although the patterns were not as strong as with habitat distribution, multivariate models with sagebrush cover and landscape ruggedness or forest cover and ruggedness similarly had a much stronger fit with genetic differentiation than an undifferentiated landscape. In most cases, landscape resistance surfaces transformed with 17.33-km-diameter moving windows were preferred, suggesting small-scale differences in habitat were unimportant at this large spatial extent. Despite the emergence of these overall patterns, there were differences in the selection of top models depending on the model selection criteria, suggesting research into the most appropriate criteria for landscape genetics is required. Overall, our results highlight the importance of differences in seasonal habitat preferences to patterns of gene flow and suggest the combination of habitat suitability modeling and linear mixed models with our resistance parameterization is a powerful approach to discerning the effects of landscape on gene flow.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2015

Wyoming greater sage-grouse habitat prioritization: A collection of multi-scale seasonal models and geographic information systems land management tools

With rapidly changing landscape conditions within Wyoming and the potential effects of landscape changes on sage-grouse habitat, land managers and conservation planners, among others, need procedures to assess the location and juxtaposition of important habitats, land-cover, and land-use patterns to balance wildlife requirements with multiple human land uses. Biologists frequently develop habitat-selection studies to identify prioritization efforts for species of conservation concern to increase understanding and help guide habitat-conservation efforts. Recently, the authors undertook a large-scale collaborative effort that developed habitat-selection models for Greater Sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) across large landscapes in Wyoming, USA and for multiple life-stages (nesting, late brood-rearing, and winter). We developed these habitat models using resource selection functions, based upon sage-grouse telemetry data collected for localized studies and within each life-stage. The models allowed us to characterize and spatially predict seasonal sage-grouse habitat use in Wyoming. Due to the quantity of models, the diversity of model predictors (in the form of geographic information system data) produced by analyses, and the variety of potential applications for these data, we present here a resource that complements our published modeling effort, which will further support land managers. We deliver all products described herein as online geographic information system data for visualization and downloading. We outline the data properties for each model and their data inputs, describe the process of selecting appropriate data products for multifarious applications, describe all data products and software, provide newly derived model composites, and discuss how land managers may use the models to inform future sage-grouse studies and potentially refine conservation efforts. The models, software tools, and associated opportunities for novel applications of these products should provide a suite of additional, but not exclusive, tools for assessing Wyoming Greater Sage-grouse habitats, which land managers, conservationists, and scientists can apply to myriad applications.

Wyoming↗

USGS2014

Habitat prioritization across large landscapes, multiple seasons, and novel areas: an example using greater sage-grouse in Wyoming

Animal habitat selection is an important and expansive area of research in ecology. In particular, the study of habitat selection is critical in habitat prioritization efforts for species of conservation concern. Landscape planning for species is happening at ever-increasing extents because of the appreciation for the role of landscape-scale patterns in species persistence coupled to improved datasets for species and habitats, and the expanding and intensifying footprint of human land uses on the landscape. We present a large-scale collaborative effort to develop habitat selection models across large landscapes and multiple seasons for prioritizing habitat for a species of conservation concern. Greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus , hereafter sage-grouse) occur in western semi-arid landscapes in North America. Range-wide population declines of this species have been documented, and it is currently considered as “warranted but precluded” from listing under the United States Endangered Species Act. Wyoming is predicted to remain a stronghold for sage-grouse populations and contains approximately 37% of remaining birds. We compiled location data from 14 unique radiotelemetry studies (data collected 1994–2010) and habitat data from high-quality, biologically relevant, geographic information system (GIS) layers across Wyoming. We developed habitat selection models for greater sage-grouse across Wyoming for 3 distinct life stages: 1) nesting, 2) summer, and 3) winter. We developed patch and landscape models across 4 extents, producing statewide and regional (southwest, central, northeast) models for Wyoming. Habitat selection varied among regions and seasons, yet preferred habitat attributes generally matched the extensive literature on sage-grouse seasonal habitat requirements. Across seasons and regions, birds preferred areas with greater percentage sagebrush cover and avoided paved roads, agriculture, and forested areas. Birds consistently preferred areas with higher precipitation in the summer and avoided rugged terrain in the winter. Selection for sagebrush cover varied regionally with stronger selection in the Northeast region, likely because of limited availability, whereas avoidance of paved roads was fairly consistent across regions. We chose resource selection function (RSF) thresholds for each model set (seasonal × regional combination) that delineated important seasonal habitats for sage-grouse. Each model set showed good validation and discriminatory capabilities within study-site boundaries. We applied the nesting-season models to a novel area not included in model development. The percentage of independent nest locations that fell directly within identified important habitat was not overly impressive in the novel area (49%); however, including a 500-m buffer around important habitat captured 98% of independent nest locations within the novel area. We also used leks and associated peak male counts as a proxy for nesting habitat outside of the study sites used to develop the models. A 1.5-km buffer around the important nesting habitat boundaries included 77% of males counted at leks in Wyoming outside of the study sites. Data were not available to quantitatively test the performance of the summer and winter models outside our study sites. The collection of models presented here represents large-scale resource-management planning tools that are a significant advancement to previous tools in terms of spatial and temporal resolution.

Wyoming↗