Geology topics

Kevin D. Kroeger

Publications and source records attributed to Kevin D. Kroeger.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Ecogeomorphologic response of a tidally restricted salt marsh to tidal restoration and sea-level rise

Diked marshes with decades of restricted tidal flow exhibit fundamentally altered hydrologic and ecologic dynamics that result in limited vertical accretion, land subsidence, and underdeveloped tidal channels. These changes complicate marsh restoration efforts and constrain the marsh's ability to build elevation in response to future sea levels. In this study, we developed an integrated hydrodynamic and marsh accretion model to conduct the first assessment of the restoration potential of a diked marsh in response to reintroduction of tidal flow and sea-level rise (SLR). We applied our model to evaluate changes in biomass production in the Herring River estuary, Cape Cod, MA, USA—which has experienced significant ecological shifts due to more than a century of tidal restriction—in response to a range of SLR scenarios, tidal flow conditions, management interventions, and biomass production rates through 2100. We found that with restoration of tidal flow, the simulated marsh extent expanded in areas with efficient drainage, increasing biomass production by up to 4.4 times. However, when SLR was imposed, parts of the marsh gradually transitioned to open water, leading to a decline in marsh coverage from 19% to as low as 12%. Management interventions aimed at enhancing marsh elevation and improving the drainage capacity of tidal channels slowed marsh loss, supporting marsh area through 2100. Our findings provide insight into the key drivers of marsh resilience and loss, and our approach can be applied across tidally restricted and restored systems to develop targeted, adaptive restoration strategies that achieve desired ecological outcomes.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2026

The accelerating loss and shifting dynamics of US tidal wetlands

Tidal wetlands are critical ecosystems for coastal sustainability, yet despite growing regulatory protection, they continue to decline globally. Their long-term resilience to interacting chronic stressors and extreme events remains uncertain, in part because comprehensive, high-frequency monitoring has been lacking. While direct land-use conversion has been substantially restricted in the United States, the true trajectory of these protected habitats has remained unclear. Here, we use four decades of high-resolution satellite records to analyze the shifting dynamics of US tidal wetlands. We reveal a widespread and previously unquantified acceleration in the rate of tidal wetland loss, amounting to a net loss of −1640 km 2 at the rate of −40.53 km 2 year −1 , accelerating by −0.73 km 2 year −2 , of which tidal marsh contributed the majority of this loss with a cumulative decline of 1567 km 2 . Furthermore, we show that the drivers of this decline are shifting: while chronic stressors like relative sea level rise have caused the largest cumulative loss (~60% of the total area loss), acute shocks from extreme weather now dominate (1.4 times that of the chronic stressors) the acceleration of that loss. By contrast, direct human activities were a minor driver, accounting for only 4% of total observed losses. These findings indicate that the resilience of these protected ecosystems is declining. It provides an urgent warning that existing conservation strategies, initially concerned with direct human impacts and increasingly focused on relative sea level rise as a slow-moving pressure, are ill-equipped for a future of increasing extreme weather events and highlights the need to redesign adaptation policies.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2026

Groundwater–surface water exchange at a New England salt marsh: The interplay between tidal pumping at multiple frequencies and terrestrial groundwater discharge

Groundwater–surface water exchange plays a fundamental role in the transport of energy and solutes in coastal salt marshes, which are positioned at an intersection between terrestrial and marine hydrologic environments. Hydraulic gradients in shallow marsh sediments continuously change due to tidal water level variations that alternately flood and drain the marsh platform, often superimposed on terrestrial groundwater drainage. We use timeseries data from Vertical Temperature Profiler and Conductivity-Temperature-Depth instruments to investigate the space–time patterns of groundwater–surface water exchange at a hillslope-adjacent fringing salt marsh on the Herring River in Wellfleet, MA. Analyses of data acquired from September to December 2023 demonstrate that time-averaged exchange rates systematically vary from recharge near the tidal channel to saline groundwater discharge towards the upland fringe and systematically decrease during the transition from summer to winter conditions. Exchange rates were continuously modulated by tides, including high-frequency compound and harmonic components generated by non-linear interactions as the astronomical tide propagated into the estuary. The exchange rate sensitivity to tidal forcing decreased with both frequency and distance from the tidal channel, consistent with the lateral diffusion of pore pressure perturbations through the high permeability layer underlying the surficial, low permeability peat. We find that tidal loading of the marsh sediments is a two-stage process consisting of direct, instantaneous loading during inundation and indirect, time delayed loading via lateral diffusion of pore pressure variations in-between inundation intervals. The combination of terrestrial groundwater entering the marsh through the high permeability layer beneath the peat, seawater flooding the marsh platform during inundation, and tidally induced pore pressure variations diffusing into the marsh generates a complex space–time exchange pattern, including bi-directional exchange at tidal periods, with poorly understood but important implications for biogeochemical processes in the marsh sediments and constituent fluxes to the coastal ocean.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2025

The δ13C signature of dissolved organic and inorganic carbon reveals complex carbon transformations within a salt marsh

Coastal wetlands have high rates of atmospheric CO 2 uptake, which is subsequently respired back to the atmosphere, stored as organic matter within flooded, anoxic soils, or exported to the coastal ocean. Transformation of fixed carbon occurs through a variety of subsurface aerobic and anaerobic microbial processes, and results in a large inventory of dissolved carbon. Carbon source and the roles of aerobic respiration, sulfate reduction, and methane cycling were evaluated within salt marsh peat and the underlying sandy subterranean estuary. There is a large increase in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC, 7,350 ± 3,900 μmol L −1 ), dissolved organic carbon (DOC, 1,040 ± 1,480 μmol L −1 ) and CH 4 (14.5 ± 33.3 μmol L −1 ) within the marsh porewaters compared to creek waters. Alkalinity production (5,730 ± 2,170 μeq L −1 ) and sulfate removal (1,810 ± 1,970 μmol L −1 ) indicate anaerobic respiration, however, relative contributions from the various decomposition pathways cannot be identified due to overlapping geochemical signatures. The δ 13 C of the DOC (−29.0 ± 3.7‰) and DIC (−11.2 ± 1.1‰) produced within the marsh differed from the bulk soil organic matter δ 13 C (−14.5 ± 0.2‰). We explore a variety of mechanisms that could result in co-occurring depleted δ 13 C-DOC and enriched δ 13 C-DIC compared to the bulk soil organic carbon pool and salt marsh vegetation, including selective mineralization, production of δ 13 C-depleted bacterial biomass, and methane-derived DOC. While important questions remain about carbon cycling pathways, we found evidence of a cryptic methane cycle. Alteration of the δ 13 C of carbon species complicates source attribution in solid and dissolved phases and careful consideration should be used when carbon is partitioned between in situ salt marsh production and external marine and terrestrial sources.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2025

Evidence of mineral alteration in a salt marsh subterranean estuary: Implications for carbon and trace element cycling

Subterranean estuaries (STE) in salt marshes are biogeochemically active zones where interactions between terrestrial groundwater and seawater drive complex cycling of carbon and trace elements, influenced by mineral dissolution. These systems, characterized by fine-grained organic-rich peat overlying permeable coastal aquifers, play a crucial role as a blue carbon sink, yet their geochemical dynamics remain poorly understood. We investigated dissolved trace elements, carbon, silica, and radium isotopes in a salt marsh STE (Sage Lot Pond, Waquoit Bay, MA) over seasonal and annual cycles. Our results reveal that groundwater and estuarine water circulation through marsh peat and aquifer sediments leads to enrichments of dissolved organic and inorganic carbon (DOC and DIC), Si, Ba, and Mn, with variable source/sink behavior of Fe and net removal of U. Submarine groundwater discharge dominated Ba fluxes, whereas pore water drainage from marsh peat acted as the main sink for U and source of Si. Fe cycling was variable, with terrestrial Fe largely removed as groundwater passed through the STE, consistent with Fe-sulfide and amorphous phase formation. Radium isotope ratios identified two distinct subsurface flow pathways, influenced by metal-oxide cycling and organic matter breakdown. Si production was decoupled from DIC, suggesting Si originates from mineral alteration, whereas DIC results from both mineral weathering and microbial respiration. Silicate mineral alteration, coupled with marsh pore water drainage, accounts for up to 16% of annual DIC exports (66 g C m −2 y −1 ), highlighting the importance of STEs in coastal carbon and trace element cycling, especially as marshes face environmental change.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2025

U.S. Geological Survey research and assessments supporting carbon dioxide removal

Both carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) are methods to limit future global temperature rise and ocean acidification. CCS sequesters (stores) carbon dioxide (CO2) captured from industrial sources thereby preventing the CO2 from reaching the atmosphere. The captured CO2 is injected into underground geologic reservoirs or is converted into stable industrial products. CDR enhances natural processes or uses technical approaches to remove excess CO2 from the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is sequestered in natural sinks such as vegetation and soil, or injected into underground reservoirs or converted into durable products. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts research and resource assessments that support biologic and geologic CDR approaches. This report will review some of the ongoing USGS CDR research and assessment efforts.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2024

Evidence of nitrate attenuation in intertidal and subtidal groundwater in a subterranean estuary at a Cape Cod embayment, East Falmouth, Massachusetts, 2015–16

Nitrogen dynamics in intertidal and nearshore subtidal groundwater (subterranean estuary) adjacent to the Seacoast Shores peninsula, Falmouth, Massachusetts, were investigated during 2015–16 by the U.S. Geological Survey. The peninsula is a densely populated residential area with septic systems and cesspools that are substantial sources of nitrogen to groundwater. The study area is in the Eel River, an estuarine saltwater embayment connected to the ocean adjacent to the western shore of the peninsula, that was the subject of an earlier study by Colman and others (2018, https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20185095 ) on nitrogen transport and transformations in groundwater between onshore and offshore locations. The previous study documented the distribution of nitrate concentrations and nitrate attenuation reactions in fresh groundwater beneath the peninsula and the estuary. The current study extended those observations with more detailed sampling and analysis of shallow groundwater from wells near discharge sites beneath the estuary. The current field investigation included sampling of existing wells and installation and sampling of clusters of wells and temporary sampling points in the subterranean estuary, including (1) shallow transects 0.3 to 1.2 meters (m) deep extending from 1 to 13.5 m offshore and (2) deeper wells (from 1.83 to 4.88 m deep) extending from 4.3 to 14.3 m offshore. Measurements of hydraulic-head gradients 2–5 m below the sediment/water interface in the intertidal and nearshore subtidal zones indicated that groundwater flow generally was upwards (towards the estuary) under all tide conditions in October 2016. The magnitude of the gradient was greatest during low tide conditions, indicating that groundwater discharge likely decreased during high tides. Measurements of specific conductance in shallow groundwater in the subterranean estuary in three transects perpendicular to shore were consistent with the existence of saltwater flow cells (infiltration of overlying saline water, mixing with fresh groundwater, and discharge to the overlying saline water) in the intertidal and nearshore subtidal regions. The size of these flow cells was variable in space and time and dependent on the elevation of the tide (spring or neap). At this location in the Eel River subterranean estuary, and offshore to at least 13.5 m, offshore flow of fresh groundwater apparently prevented a deeper saltwater wedge from discharging to the surface. Nitrate concentrations in shallow groundwater (30 to 122 centimeters [cm] depth) were variable in space and time, ranging from not detectable to 600 micromoles per liter (μmol/L) (8.4 milligrams per liter as N), and were highest in June 2016 at depths from 61 to 122 cm below the sediment/water interface and from 4 to 9 m offshore. Nitrate generally was not detectable in saline shallow groundwater at 30-cm depth or at any depth from 30 to 122 cm from 10 to 13.5 m offshore. Dissolved oxygen concentrations were suboxic (less than 16 μmol/L) in 60 percent of the sampled subterranean groundwater beneath the intertidal and subtidal zones. In the remaining sites, the range of dissolved oxygen concentrations was from 18 to 272 μmol/L and the median concentration was 43 μmol/L. Evidence for microbial nitrate reduction (denitrification and possibly anammox) was provided by the distribution of the reaction product nitrogen gas (excess N 2 , or N 2MIC ), as determined from analysis of the dissolved nitrogen gas and argon gas (Ar) concentrations in groundwater samples. Excess nitrogen gas provided evidence for nitrate reduction in shallow groundwater below the subtidal and, to a lesser extent, intertidal zones adjacent to the Seacoast Shores peninsula. These zones, where evidence for nitrate reduction was detected, were in fresh and brackish groundwater near subtidal or intertidal saltwater cells where discharging fresh groundwater mixed with infiltrating saline water. Infiltrating seawater may have supplied organic carbon, one of several potential electron donors that are required for denitrification. Other potential electron donors, such as organic carbon, iron, manganese, hydrogen, methane, ammonium, elemental sulfur, or sulfide phases, may have been supplied by the estuarine sediments. Drainage from surface runoff near the shore also may have supplied organic carbon to fresh groundwater near the intertidal saltwater cell. The highest amounts of nitrate converted to excess nitrogen gas were estimated to be in the range of 230 to 430 μmol/L in nearly fresh groundwater near the subtidal saltwater cell at depths of 61 to 122 cm below the sediment/water interface and from 10 to 13.5 m offshore. Evidence of denitrification within 10 m of the shore was sparse (generally limited to less than 50 μmol/L of N 2 -N) despite the presence of high nitrate concentrations. The spatial distribution of estimated nitrate reduction in the intertidal and nearshore subtidal fresh and brackish groundwater may be related to local variability in the distribution of reactive electron donors in those zones. Variations in the amount of nitrate reduction to nitrogen gas were not clearly related to potential aqueous electron donors such as dissolved organic carbon, nor to potential reaction products such as alkalinity, but may have been controlled by combinations of aqueous and solid-phase reactants. The distribution of relatively shallow fresh groundwater containing nitrate could indicate potential nitrate discharge areas in the lower intertidal zone and uncertain locations farther offshore; however, the data did not extend all the way to the sediment/water interface or to the offshore freshwater limit. This study confirmed substantial loss of nitrate from some of the fresh and brackish groundwater in shallow subestuarine sediments prior to discharge but did not quantify how much nitrate eventually discharged to the estuary.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2024

U.S. Geological Survey climate science plan—Future research directions

Executive Summary Climate is the primary driver of environmental change and is a key consideration in defining science priorities conducted across all mission areas in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Recognizing the importance of climate change to its future research agenda, the USGS’s Climate Science Steering Committee requested the development of a Climate Science Plan to identify future research directions. Subject matter experts from across the Bureau formed the USGS Climate Science Plan Writing Team, which convened in September 2022 to identify and outline the major climate science topics of future concern and develop an integrated approach to conducting climate science in support of the USGS and U.S. Department of the Interior missions. The resulting USGS Climate Science Plan identifies three major priorities under which USGS climate science proceeds: (1) characterize climate change and associated impacts, (2) assess climate change risks and develop approaches to mitigate climate change, and (3) provide climate science tools and support. The Climate Science Plan identifies 12 specific goals to achieve the outcomes of the three priorities. Conduct long-term, broad-scale, and multidisciplinary measurements and monitoring and research activities to define, quantify, and predict the impacts of climate change on natural and human systems; Provide leadership to standardize measuring, monitoring, reporting, and verifying greenhouse gas emissions, lateral carbon fluxes, and carbon sinks across lands managed by the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI); Provide science capacity, training, tools, and infrastructure to Tribal partners; support Tribal-led science initiatives; Conduct climate change research in partnership with the broader climate science community; Develop improved data synthesis methods through collaborative and open science across mission areas and between the USGS and agency partners; Translate climate change impacts into risk assessments in support of risk management strategies; Develop new and improved risk assessments, models, and approaches for mitigating climate change, adapting to its impacts, and reducing uncertainties; design early warning systems for risk mitigation; Investigate climate change mitigation strategies and create decision science support tools to inform climate change mitigation and adaptation; Provide a framework that facilitates knowledge co-production needed to inform policy decisions; Provide access to USGS data and information through novel integration and visualization approaches; Build capacity within USGS and DOI through development of scientific training curricula; and Coordinate science and capacity building efforts broadly across the Federal Government. To achieve these goals, the USGS Climate Science Plan also outlines climate science guidelines—key elements for conducting climate-based research—as well as emerging opportunities to support successful climate science. The USGS Climate Science Plan provided in this circular will guide future research priorities and science-support investments, as well as continued development of the climate workforce for decades to come, ensuring that the USGS continues to serve as one of the Nation’s leading climate science agencies.

Circular↗

USGS2024

Hydrodynamic and salinity tesponse to tidal restoration in the Herring River Estuary, MA, considering present and future sea levels

Coastal salt marshes are crucial ecosystems that provide habitat for a variety of species, improve water quality, and play a major role in the global carbon cycle. However, many salt marshes have been severely damaged by human activities such as diking and draining for urban development. Recently, there has been a noticeable shift toward the prioritization of coastal marsh restoration to re-establish their ecosystem services. The removal of anthropogenic barriers such as dikes, sluices, and culverts is a critical component of many projects because it allows for the restoration of tidal flow to support natural hydrologic regimes and salinity conditions, which play a dominant role in determining the ecological and biogeochemical functioning of marshes. This study examines how proposed removal of hydraulic structures will influence the hydrologic potential for marsh restoration in the Herring River Estuary in Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA. Construction of dikes, roadways, and low-capacity culverts over the last century has substantially restricted tidal flow in the Herring River Estuary, leading to degradation of salt marsh habitat. The estuary is now undergoing the first phase of a restoration project to re-introduce natural hydrologic conditions, increase salinity, and restore salt marsh habitat. To assess how the Herring River Estuary will respond to human- and climate-driven modifications, we develop and apply a validated hydrodynamic model to simulate the complex tidal and salinity dynamics of the estuary under a range of restoration and sea level rise scenarios. We then quantify how salinity and critical hydrologic variables, including tidal range and depth of mean high water, will evolve for various restoration scenarios considering present and future sea levels. The results of this research can inform coastal management and restoration plans that re-create the natural functioning of the system while protecting critical infrastructure and reducing the risk of restoration failure.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2024

Tracking mangrove condition changes using dense Landsat time series

Mangroves in tropical and subtropical coasts are subject to episodic disturbances, notably from severe storms, leading to potential widespread vegetation mortality. The ability of vegetation to recover varies, and with disturbances becoming more frequent and severe, it is vital to track and project vegetation responses to support management and policy decisions. Prior studies have largely focused on binary mangrove mapping (i.e., presence or absence), while tracking conditions and condition change have not received sufficient attention. In this paper, we demonstrate a method based on dense time series Landsat images for continuous monitoring of mangrove conditions, where we track three kinds of post-disturbance mangrove conditions, including disturbed (disturbed, with rebound to the previous state within one growing season), recovering (undergoing natural recovery in longer than one growing season), and declining (showing long-term decline after disturbance). The method starts with disturbance detection using the DEtection and Characterization Of the tiDal wEtland change (DECODE) algorithm, an existing dense time series model designed to detect disturbances in tidal wetlands with adaptation to tidal fluctuations. This algorithm is well suited for the detection of tidal wetland disturbances but does not provide satisfactory post-disturbance monitoring results, due to the substantial variability in post-disturbance Landsat observations. To better monitor post-disturbance conditions, a new time series fitting approach, DECODER (DECODE and Recovery), is proposed for the recovery stage. Additionally, for temporal segments divided by disturbance events, we built a random forest classifier with temporal-spectral variables derived from the time series model to characterize mangrove conditions. Employing this approach in Florida's mangroves, we generated condition maps, such as dieback and recovery, with an overall accuracy of approximately 97.96 ± 0.86- [95 % confidence intervals]. Comparing post-hurricane conditions in Florida revealed that the increased frequency and severity of disturbances are challenging mangrove resilience, potentially diminishing their ability to recover and sustain ecosystem functions.

Florida↗

USGS2023

The Coastal Carbon Library and Atlas: Open source soil data and tools supporting blue carbon research and policy

Quantifying carbon fluxes into and out of coastal soils is critical to meeting greenhouse gas reduction and coastal resiliency goals. Numerous ‘blue carbon’ studies have generated, or benefitted from, synthetic datasets. However, the community those efforts inspired does not have a centralized, standardized database of disaggregated data used to estimate carbon stocks and fluxes. In this paper, we describe a data structure designed to standardize data reporting, maximize reuse, and maintain a chain of credit from synthesis to original source. We introduce version 1.0.0. of the Coastal Carbon Library, a global database of 6723 soil profiles representing blue carbon-storing systems including marshes, mangroves, tidal freshwater forests, and seagrasses. We also present the Coastal Carbon Atlas, an R-shiny application that can be used to visualize, query, and download portions of the Coastal Carbon Library. The majority (4815) of entries in the database can be used for carbon stock assessments without the need for interpolating missing soil variables, 533 are available for estimating carbon burial rate, and 326 are useful for fitting dynamic soil formation models. Organic matter density significantly varied by habitat with tidal freshwater forests having the highest density, and seagrasses having the lowest. Future work could involve expansion of the synthesis to include more deep stock assessments, increasing the representation of data outside of the U.S., and increasing the amount of data available for mangroves and seagrasses, especially carbon burial rate data. We present proposed best practices for blue carbon data including an emphasis on disaggregation, data publication, dataset documentation, and use of standardized vocabulary and templates whenever appropriate. To conclude, the Coastal Carbon Library and Atlas serve as a general example of a grassroots F.A.I.R. (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) data effort demonstrating how data producers can coordinate to develop tools relevant to policy and decision-making.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2023

Carbonate chemistry and carbon sequestration driven by inorganic carbon outwelling from mangroves and saltmarshes

Mangroves and saltmarshes are biogeochemical hotspots storing carbon in sediments and in the ocean following lateral carbon export (outwelling). Coastal seawater pH is modified by both uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide and natural biogeochemical processes, e.g., wetland inputs. Here, we investigate how mangroves and saltmarshes influence coastal carbonate chemistry and quantify the contribution of alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) outwelling to blue carbon budgets. Observations from 45 mangroves and 16 saltmarshes worldwide revealed that >70% of intertidal wetlands export more DIC than alkalinity, potentially decreasing the pH of coastal waters. Porewater-derived DIC outwelling (81 ± 47 mmol m −2 d −1 in mangroves and 57 ± 104 mmol m −2 d −1 in saltmarshes) was the major term in blue carbon budgets. However, substantial amounts of fixed carbon remain unaccounted for. Concurrently, alkalinity outwelling was similar or higher than sediment carbon burial and is therefore a significant but often overlooked carbon sequestration mechanism.

Nature↗

USGS2023

Practical guide to measuring wetland carbon pools and fluxes

Wetlands cover a small portion of the world, but have disproportionate influence on global carbon (C) sequestration, carbon dioxide and methane emissions, and aquatic C fluxes. However, the underlying biogeochemical processes that affect wetland C pools and fluxes are complex and dynamic, making measurements of wetland C challenging. Over decades of research, many observational, experimental, and analytical approaches have been developed to understand and quantify pools and fluxes of wetland C. Sampling approaches range in their representation of wetland C from short to long timeframes and local to landscape spatial scales. This review summarizes common and cutting-edge methodological approaches for quantifying wetland C pools and fluxes. We first define each of the major C pools and fluxes and provide rationale for their importance to wetland C dynamics. For each approach, we clarify what component of wetland C is measured and its spatial and temporal representativeness and constraints. We describe practical considerations for each approach, such as where and when an approach is typically used, who can conduct the measurements (expertise, training requirements), and how approaches are conducted, including considerations on equipment complexity and costs. Finally, we review key covariates and ancillary measurements that enhance the interpretation of findings and facilitate model development. The protocols that we describe to measure soil, water, vegetation, and gases are also relevant for related disciplines such as ecology. Improved quality and consistency of data collection and reporting across studies will help reduce global uncertainties and develop management strategies to use wetlands as nature-based climate solutions.

Wetlands↗

USGS2023

Geologic carbon management options for the North Atlantic-Appalachian Region

Introduction The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) North Atlantic-Appalachian Region is developing the regionwide capacity to provide timely science support for decision-makers attempting to enhance carbon removal, sequestration, and emissions mitigation to meet national atmospheric carbon reduction goals. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reported that in 2021, the fourteen States and the District of Columbia in the northeastern region account about for approximately 18 percent of the total national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This Fact Sheet provides a summary of USGS science information and ongoing and new investigations or data-collection programs that may help the northeastern region decrease the release of carbon-containing GHG to the atmosphere.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachuse↗

USGS2023

Mapping methane reduction potential of tidal wetland restoration in the United States

Coastal wetlands can emit excess methane in cases where they are impounded and artificially freshened by structures that impede tidal exchange. We provide a new assessment of coastal methane reduction opportunities for the contiguous United States by combining multiple publicly available map layers, reassessing greenhouse gas emissions datasets, and applying scenarios informed by geospatial information system and by surveys of coastal managers. Independent accuracy assessment indicates that coastal impoundments are under-mapped at the national level by a factor of one-half. Restorations of freshwater-impounded wetlands to brackish or saline conditions have the greatest potential climate benefit of all mapped conversion opportunities, but were rarer than other potential conversion events. At the national scale we estimate potential emissions reduction for coastal wetlands to be 0.91 Teragrams of carbon dioxide equivalents year −1 , a more conservative assessment compared to previous estimates. We provide a map of 1,796 parcels with the potential for tidal re-connection.

Communications Earth & Environment↗

USGS2023

High-frequency variability of carbon dioxide fluxes in tidal water over a temperate salt marsh

Existing analyses of salt marsh carbon budgets rarely quantify carbon loss as CO 2 through the air–water interface in inundated marshes. This study estimates the variability of partial pressure of CO 2 ( p CO 2 ) and air–water CO 2 fluxes over summer and fall of 2014 and 2015 using high-frequency measurements of tidal water p CO 2 in a salt marsh of the U.S. northeast region. Monthly mean CO 2 effluxes varied in the range of 5.4–25.6 mmol m −2 marsh d −1 (monthly median: 4.8–24.7 mmol m −2 marsh d −1 ) during July to November from the tidal creek and tidally-inundated vegetated platform. The source of CO 2 effluxes was partitioned between the marsh and estuary using a mixing model. The monthly mean marsh-contributed CO 2 effluxes accounted for a dominant portion (69%) of total CO 2 effluxes in the inundated marsh, which was 3–23% (mean 13%) of the corresponding lateral flux rate of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from marsh to estuary. Photosynthesis in tidal water substantially reduced the CO 2 evasion, accounting for 1–86% (mean 31%) of potential CO 2 evasion and 2–26% (mean 11%) of corresponding lateral transport DIC fluxes, indicating the important role of photosynthesis in controlling the air–water CO 2 evasion in the inundated salt marsh. This study demonstrates that CO 2 evasion from inundated salt marshes is a significant loss term for carbon that is fixed within marshes.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2023

Forecasting sea level rise-driven inundation in diked and tidally restricted coastal lowlands

Diked and drained coastal lowlands rely on hydraulic and protective infrastructure that may not function as designed in areas with relative sea-level rise. The slow and incremental loss of the hydraulic conditions required for a well-drained system make it difficult to identify if and when the flow structures no longer discharge enough water, especially in tidal settings where two-way flows occur through the dike. We developed and applied a hydraulic mass-balance model to quantify how water levels in the diked and tidally restricted coastal wetlands and water bodies dynamically respond to sea-level rise, specifically applied to the Herring River Estuary in MA, USA, from 2020 to 2100. Sensitivity testing of the model parameters indicated that primary outcomes were not sensitive to many of the chosen input values, though the terrestrial water input rate to the estuary and the flow coefficient for the hydraulic infrastructure were important. The relative importance of parameters, however, is expected to be site specific. We introduced a drainability metric that quantifies the net water volume drained over every tidal cycle to monitor and forecast how rising water levels on either side of the dike affected the net draining or impounding conditions of the system. Ensembles of model results across parameter and sea-level scenario uncertainties indicated that substantial impoundment of the Herring River Estuary was expected within ~ 20 years with the existing flow structures, a sluice and two flap gates. Simulations with up to three additional gates did not dampen this trend toward impoundment, suggesting that rising impounded water levels are likely even with major construction upgrades. Increasingly impounded diked coastal waterbodies present a hydrologic challenge with socioecological implications due to projected flooding and ecosystem impacts. Solutions to this challenge may be to allow coastal wetland restoration pathways or require substantial and recurring infrastructure improvement projects.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2022

Higher temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration in low marsh compared to high elevation marsh ecosystems

Salt marsh habitats contain some of the highest quantities of soil organic carbon (C) per unit area, but increasing anthropogenic stressors threaten their ability to maintain themselves as large C reservoirs in some regions. We quantify rates of C gas exchange (methane [CH 4 ] and carbon dioxide [CO 2 ]) monthly across a 16-month period from a low nitrogen “reference” salt marsh on Cape Cod in New England using static chambers. While the summer period is the most dynamic period of marsh C gas exchange, we observed substantial fluxes in the early summer through late fall, highlighting the importance of including shoulder seasons in studies of marsh C exchange. We estimate annual ecosystem respiration between 108 and 252 g C m −2 yr −1 , which varied based on temperature and elevation. This flux is lower than in other nearby marshes, which we attribute to the frequently inundated, microtidal nature of the site, resulting in the majority of respired CO 2 being exported via lateral, not vertical, fluxes from this marsh. We observed significantly higher temperature sensitivity from the low elevation of the marsh compared to the high marsh. Recent acceleration in the rate of sea level rise is leading to a well-documented expansion of low marsh into high marsh vegetation zones in this marsh system and others in the region. While rates of C burial are higher in the low marsh compared to the high marsh, the higher temperature sensitivity of respiration in the low marsh may diminish the longevity of marsh C stocks with climate warming.

Massachusetts↗