Geology topics

Kenneth Ryan

Publications and source records attributed to Kenneth Ryan.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Developing a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment framework for Pacific sources: USGS Powell Center meeting summary

Multi-organizational principal investigators formed a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Powell Center Working Group (WG), Tsunami Source Standardization for Hazards Mitigation in the United States, to develop a comprehensive series of sources capable of generating tsunamis that could impact U.S. state and territory coastal areas using probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA). PTHA results are commonly used to provide consistent tsunami hazard information for use in engineering and risk assessment and, to a lesser extent, hazard response planning. Following an initial weeklong planning meeting in April 2018, designed to establish the WG’s scope, a series of weeklong meetings devoted to aspects of tsunami hazards placed emphasis on assessment of various tsunami sources, including subduction zones in Alaska, the Atlantic and Caribbean, Cascadia, and the Pacific Basin, as well as landslides in Alaska, the Atlantic, and the Caribbean. The final meeting in the series discussed tsunami sources from crustal faults. These meetings, each with a regional geographic focus, were designed to incorporate reviews and feedback from subject matter experts (SMEs) in academia, private industry, and federal, state, and local governmental organizations. Incorporating consensus from SMEs is important because the results derived from the tsunami source models will be used to inform the public about potential hazards from tsunamis related to safety concerns. This paper describes the USGS Powell Center meeting in March 2023, devoted specifically to developing a PTHA for tsunami sources in the Pacific Ocean Basin other than the Alaska–Aleutian and Cascadia subduction zones that were addressed during previous WG meetings.

Environmental & Engineering Geoscience↗

USGS2017

Dynamic rupture modeling of the M7.2 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake: Comparison with a geodetic model

The 2010 M w 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake is the largest event recorded in the broader Southern California-Baja California region in the last 18 years. Here we try to analyze primary features of this type of event by using dynamic rupture simulations based on a multifault interface and later compare our results with space geodetic models. Our results show that starting from homogeneous prestress conditions, slip heterogeneity can be achieved as a result of variable dip angle along strike and the modulation imposed by step over segments. We also considered effects from a topographic free surface and find that although this does not produce significant first-order effects for this earthquake, even a low topographic dome such as the Cucapah range can affect the rupture front pattern and fault slip rate. Finally, we inverted available interferometric synthetic aperture radar data, using the same geometry as the dynamic rupture model, and retrieved the space geodetic slip distribution that serves to constrain the dynamic rupture models. The one to one comparison of the final fault slip pattern generated with dynamic rupture models and the space geodetic inversion show good agreement. Our results lead us to the following conclusion: in a possible multifault rupture scenario, and if we have first-order geometry constraints, dynamic rupture models can be very efficient in predicting large-scale slip heterogeneities that are important for the correct assessment of seismic hazard and the magnitude of future events. Our work contributes to understanding the complex nature of multifault systems.

California↗

USGS2016

Solving for source parameters using nested array data: A case study from the Canterbury, New Zealand earthquake sequence

The seismic spectrum can be constructed by assuming a Brune spectral model and estimating the parameters of seismic moment ( M 0 ), corner frequency ( f c ), and high-frequency site attenuation ( κ ). Using seismic data collected during the 2010–2011 Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquake sequence, we apply the non-linear least-squares Gauss–Newton method, a deterministic downhill optimization technique, to simultaneously determine the M 0 , f c , and κ for each event-station pair. We fit the Brune spectral acceleration model to Fourier-transformed S-wave records following application of path and site corrections to the data. For each event, we solve for a single M 0 and f c , while any remaining residual kappa, κ r "> κ r κr , is allowed to differ per station record to reflect varying high-frequency falloff due to path and site attenuation. We use a parametric forward modeling method, calculating initial M 0 and f c values from the local GNS New Zealand catalog M w, GNS magnitudes and measuring an initial κ r "> κ r κr using an automated high-frequency linear regression method. Final solutions for M 0 , f c , and κ r "> κ r κr are iteratively computed through minimization of the residual function, and the Brune model stress drop is then calculated from the final, best-fit f c . We perform the spectral fitting routine on nested array seismic data that include the permanent GeoNet accelerometer network as well as a dense network of nearly 200 Quake Catcher Network (QCN) MEMs accelerometers, analyzing over 180 aftershocks M w,GNS ≥ 3.5 that occurred from 9 September 2010 to 31 July 2011. QCN stations were hosted by public volunteers and served to fill spatial gaps between existing GeoNet stations. Moment magnitudes determined using the spectral fitting procedure ( M w,SF ) range from 3.5 to 5.7 and agree well with M w,GNS , with a median difference of 0.09 and 0.17 for GeoNet and QCN records, respectively, and 0.11 when data from both networks are combined. The majority of events are calculated to have stress drops between 1.7 and 13 MPa (20th and 80th percentile, correspondingly) for the combined networks. The overall median stress drop for the combined networks is 3.2 MPa, which is similar to median stress drops previously reported for the Canterbury sequence. We do not observe a correlation between stress drop and depth for this region, nor a relationship between stress drop and magnitude over the catalog considered. Lateral spatial patterns in stress drop, such as a cluster of aftershocks near the eastern extent of the Greendale fault with higher stress drops and lower stress drops for aftershocks of the 2011 M w,GNS 6.2 Christchurch mainshock, are found to be in agreement with previous reports. As stress drop is arguably a method-dependent calculation and subject to high spatial variability, our results using the parametric Gauss–Newton algorithm strengthen conclusions that the Canterbury sequence has stress drops that are more similar to those found in intraplate regions, with overall higher stress drops that are typically observed in tectonically active areas.

Christchurch↗

USGS2013

The SAFRR tsunami scenario: Improving resilience for California

On March 11, 2011, the Tohoku earthquake and the resulting tsunami devastated Japan with a disaster of unfathomable proportions. Five thousand miles away, the waves from Tohoku caused $50 to 100 million in damages in California. Although this pales in comparison to the loss of lives and property in Japan, the U.S. Government must ask whether California, and the national economy, will someday face worse consequences from other distant-source tsunamis. Unfortunately, the answer is “yes.”

California↗

USGS2013

SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario--Executive Summary and Introduction: Chapter A in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey, the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

California↗