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Kenneth H. Pollock

Publications and source records attributed to Kenneth H. Pollock.

28 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS1992

Estimating transition probabilities for stage-based population projection matrices using capture-recapture data

In stage—based demography, animals are often categorized into size (or mass) classes, and size—based probabilities of surviving and changing mass classes must be estimated before demographic analyses can be conducted. In this paper, we develop two procedures for the estimation of mass transition probabilities from capture—recapture data. The first approach uses a multistate capture—recapture model that is parameterized directly with the transition probabilities of interest. Maximum likelihood estimates are then obtained numerically using program SURVIV. The second approach involvesa modification of Pollock's robust design. Estimation proceeds by conditioning on animals caught in a particualr class at time i, and then using closed models to estimate the number of these that are alive in other classes at i + 1. Both methods are illustrated by application to meadow vole, Microtus pennsylvanicus, capture—recapture data. The two methods produced reasonable estimates that were similar. Advantages of these two approaches include the directness of estimation, the absence of need for restrictive assumptions about the independence of survival and growth, the testability of assumptions, and the testability of related hypotheses of ecological interest (e.g., the hypothesis of temporal variation in transition probabilities).

Ecology↗
USGS1992

Change-in-ratio methods for estimating population size

Change-in-ratio (CIR) methods can provide an effective, low cost approach for estimating the size of wildlife populations. They rely on being able to observe changes in proportions of population subclasses that result from the removal of a known number of individuals from the population. These methods were first introduced in the 1940’s to estimate the size of populations with 2 subclasses under the assumption of equal subclass encounter probabilities. Over the next 40 years, closed population CIR models were developed to consider additional subclasses and use additional sampling periods. Models with assumptions about how encounter probabilities vary over time, rather than between subclasses, also received some attention. Recently, all of these CIR models have been shown to be special cases of a more general model. Under the general model, information from additional samples can be used to test assumptions about the encounter probabilities and to provide estimates of subclass sizes under relaxations of these assumptions. These developments have greatly extended the applicability of the methods. CIR methods are attractive because they do not require the marking of individuals, and subclass proportions often can be estimated with relatively simple sampling procedures. However, CIR methods require a carefully monitored removal of individuals from the population, and the estimates will be of poor quality unless the removals induce substantial changes in subclass proportions. In this paper, we review the state of the art for closed population estimation with CIR methods. Our emphasis is on the assumptions of CIR methods and on identifying situations where these methods are likely to be effective. We also identify some important areas for future CIR research.

Book chapter↗
USGS1991

Change-in-ratio estimators for populations with more than two subclasses

Change-in-ratio methods have been developed to estimate the size of populations with two or three population subclasses. Most of these methods require the often unreasonable assumption of equal sampling probabilities for individuals in all subclasses. This paper presents new models based on the weaker assumption that ratios of sampling probabilities are constant over time for populations with three or more subclasses. Estimation under these models requires that a value be assumed for one of these ratios when there are two samples. Explicit expressions are given for the maximum likelihood estimators under models for two samples with three or more subclasses and for three samples with two subclasses. A numerical method using readily available statistical software is described for obtaining the estimators and their standard errors under all of the models. Likelihood ratio tests that can be used in model selection are discussed. Emphasis is on the two-sample, three-subclass models for which Monte-Carlo simulation results and an illustrative example are presented.

Biometrics↗
USGS1990

Estimation of recruitment from immigration versus in situ reproduction using Pollock's robust design

Recruitment to animal populations can occur through both immigration and in situ reproduction. These two components of recruitment are conceptually distinct and lead to different mechanistic models of population dynamics. We describe a capture—recapture design that can be used to obtain separate estimates of two recruitment components. We then illustrate the use of our method and estimators with capture—recapture data from a population of Microtus pennsylvanicus at the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center in Maryland.

Ecology↗
USGS1990

Statistical inference for capture-recapture experiments

This monograph presents a detailed, practical exposition on the design, analysis, and interpretation of capture-recapture studies. The Lincoln-Petersen model (Chapter 2) and the closed population models (Chapter 3) are presented only briefly because these models have been covered in detail elsewhere. The Jolly- Seber open population model, which is central to the monograph, is covered in detail in Chapter 4. In Chapter 5 we consider the "enumeration" or "calendar of captures" approach, which is widely used by mammalogists and other vertebrate ecologists. We strongly recommend that it be abandoned in favor of analyses based on the Jolly-Seber model. We consider 2 restricted versions of the Jolly-Seber model. We believe the first of these, which allows losses (mortality or emigration) but not additions (births or immigration), is likely to be useful in practice. Another series of restrictive models requires the assumptions of a constant survival rate or a constant survival rate and a constant capture rate for the duration of the study. Detailed examples are given that illustrate the usefulness of these restrictions. There often can be a substantial gain in precision over Jolly-Seber estimates. In Chapter 5 we also consider 2 generalizations of the Jolly-Seber model. The temporary trap response model allows newly marked animals to have different survival and capture rates for 1 period. The other generalization is the cohort Jolly-Seber model. Ideally all animals would be marked as young, and age effects considered by using the Jolly-Seber model on each cohort separately. In Chapter 6 we present a detailed description of an age-dependent Jolly-Seber model, which can be used when 2 or more identifiable age classes are marked. In Chapter 7 we present a detailed description of the "robust" design. Under this design each primary period contains several secondary sampling periods. We propose an estimation procedure based on closed and open population models that allows for heterogeneity and trap response of capture rates (hence the name robust design). We begin by considering just 1 age class and then extend to 2 age classes. When there are 2 age classes it is possible to distinguish immigrants and births. In Chapter 8 we give a detailed discussion of the design of capture-recapture studies. First, capture-recapture is compared to other possible sampling procedures. Next, the design of capture-recapture studies to minimize assumption violations is considered. Finally, we consider the precision of parameter estimates and present figures on proportional standard errors for a variety of initial parameter values to aid the biologist about to plan a study. A new program, JOLLY, has been written to accompany the material on the Jolly-Seber model (Chapter 4) and its extensions (Chapter 5). Another new program, JOLLYAGE, has been written for a special case of the age-dependent model (Chapter 6) where there are only 2 age classes. In Chapter 9 a brief description of the different versions of the 2 programs is given. Chapter 10 gives a brief description of some alternative approaches that were not considered in this monograph. We believe that an excellent overall view of capture- recapture models may be obtained by reading the monograph by White et al. (1982) emphasizing closed models and then reading this monograph where we concentrate on open models. The important recent monograph by Burnham et al. (1987) could then be read if there were interest in the comparison of different populations.

Book↗
USGS1989

Survival analysis in telemetry studies: The staggered entry design

The estimation of survival distributions for radio-tagged animals is important to wildlife ecologists. Allowance must be made for animals being lost (or censored) due to radio failure, radio loss, or emigration of the animal from the study area. The Kaplan-Meier procedure (Kaplan and Meier 1958), widely used in medical studies subject to censoring, can be applied to this problem. We developed a simple modification of the Kaplan-Meier procedure that allows for new animals to be added after the study has begun. We present 2 examples using telemetry data collected from northern bobwhite quail ( Colinus virginianus ) to show the simplicity and utility of the Kaplan-Meier procedure and its modifications. The log rank test used to compare 2 survival distributions can also be modified to allow for additions during the study. Simple computer programs that can be run on a personal computer are available from the authors.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS1987

Age-specificity of black-capped chickadee survival rates: Analysis of capture-recapture data

The ornithological literature indicates a widespread belief in two generalizations about the age—specificity of avian survival rates: (1) survival rates of young birds for some period following fledging are lower than those of adults, and (2) after reaching adulthood survival rates are constant for birds of all ages. There is a growing body of evidence in support of the first generalization, although little is known about how long the survival difference between young and adults lasts. This latter question can be addressed with capture—recapture or band recovery studies based on birds marked in the winter, but the inability to determine age in many species during winter has prevented the use of standard methods. There is very little evidence supporting the second generalization, and we are in need of methods and actual analyses that address this question. In the present paper we restate the two generalizations as hypotheses and test them using data from a wintering Black—capped Chickadee (Parus atricapillus) population in Connecticut, which has been studied by Loery for 26 yr. We use a cohort—based Jolly—Seber approach, which should be useful in other investigations of this nature. We found strong evidence of lower survival rates in 1st—yr birds than in adults, but could not determine whether this was the result of higher mortality rates, higher emigration rates, or a combination of the two. We also found evidence that survival rates of adult birds were not constant with age but decreased at a rate of ° 3.5%/yr. As adult birds are very faithful to their wintering areas, we believe that almost all this decrease can be attributed to an increase in mortality with age. Simulation results suggest that heterogeneity of capture probabilities could not explain the magnitude of the decrease in survival with age. Age—dependent tag loss is also discussed as an alternative explanation, but is dismissed as very unlikely in this situation. This analysis thus provides some of the first evidence of declining adult survival probabilities with age for any bird species.

Ecology↗
USGS1987

The Husting dilemma: A methodological note

Recently, Gill (1985) discussed the interpretation of capture history data resulting from his own studies on the red-spotted newt, Notophthalmus viridescens , and work by Husting (1965) on spotted salamanders, Ambystoma maculatum. Gill (1985) noted that gaps in capture histories (years in which individuals were not captured, preceded and followed by years in which they were) could result from either of two very different possibilities: (1) failure of the animal to return to the fenced pond to breed (the alternative Husting (1965) favored), or (2) return of the animal to the breeding pond, but failure of the investigator to capture it and detect its presence. The authors agree entirely with Gill (1985) that capture history data such as his or those of Husting (1965) should be analyzed using models that recognize the possibility of 'census error,' and that it is important to try to distinguish between such 'error' and skipped breeding efforts. The purpose of this note is to point out the relationship between Gill's (1985:347) null model and certain capture-recapture models, and to use capture-recapture models and tests to analyze the original data of Husting (1965).

Ecology↗
USGS1984

The use of a robust capture-recapture design in small mammal population studies: A field example with Microtus pennsylvanicus

The robust design of Pollock (1982) was used to estimate parameters of a Maryland M. pennsylvanicus population. Closed model tests provided strong evidence of heterogeneity of capture probability, and model M eta (Otis et al., 1978) was selected as the most appropriate model for estimating population size. The Jolly-Seber model goodness-of-fit test indicated rejection of the model for this data set, and the M eta estimates of population size were all higher than the Jolly-Seber estimates. Both of these results are consistent with the evidence of heterogeneous capture probabilities. The authors thus used M eta estimates of population size, Jolly-Seber estimates of survival rate, and estimates of birth-immigration based on a combination of the population size and survival rate estimates. Advantages of the robust design estimates for certain inference procedures are discussed, and the design is recommended for future small mammal capture-recapture studies directed at estimation.

Acta Theriologica↗