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Kenneth D. Skinner

Publications and source records attributed to Kenneth D. Skinner.

28 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2012

Numerical model simulations of nitrate concentrations in groundwater using various nitrogen input scenarios, mid-Snake region, south-central Idaho

As part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program nitrate transport in groundwater was modeled in the mid-Snake River region in south-central Idaho to project future concentrations of nitrate. Model simulation results indicated that nitrate concentrations would continue to increase over time, eventually exceeding the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency maximum contaminant level for drinking water of 10 milligrams per liter in some areas. A subregional groundwater model simulated the change of nitrate concentrations in groundwater over time in response to three nitrogen input scenarios: (1) nitrogen input fixed at 2008 levels; (2) nitrogen input increased from 2008 to 2028 using the same rate of increase as the average rate of increase during the previous 10 years (1998 through 2008); after 2028, nitrogen input is fixed at 2028 levels; and (3) nitrogen input related to agriculture completely halted, with only nitrogen input from precipitation remaining. Scenarios 1 and 2 project that nitrate concentrations in groundwater continue to increase from 10 to 50 years beyond the year nitrogen input is fixed, depending on the location in the model area. Projected nitrate concentrations in groundwater increase by as much as 2–4 milligrams per liter in many areas, with nitrate concentrations in some areas reaching 10 milligrams per liter. Scenario 3, although unrealistic, estimates how long (20–50 years) it would take nitrate in groundwater to return to background concentrations—the “flushing time” of the system. The amount of nitrate concentration increase cannot be explained solely by differences in nitrogen input; in fact, some areas with the highest amount of nitrogen input have the lowest increase in nitrate concentration. The geometry of the aquifer and the pattern of regional groundwater flow through the aquifer greatly influence nitrate concentrations. The aquifer thins toward discharge areas along the Snake River which forces upward convergence of good-quality regional groundwater that mixes with the nitrate-laden groundwater in the uppermost parts of the aquifer, which results in lowered nitrate concentrations. A new method of inputting nitrogen to the subregional groundwater model was used that prorates nitrogen input by the probability of detecting nitrate concentrations greater than 2 mg/L. The probability map is based on correlations with physical factors, and prorates an existing nitrogen input dataset providing an estimate of nitrogen flux to the water table that accounts for new factors such as soil properties. The effectiveness of this updated nitrogen input method was evaluated using the software UCODE_2005.

Idaho↗
USGS2011

Evaluation of LiDAR-acquired bathymetric and topographic data accuracy in various hydrogeomorphic settings in the Deadwood and South Fork Boise Rivers, West-Central Idaho, 2007

High-quality elevation data in riverine environments are important for fisheries management applications and the accuracy of such data needs to be determined for its proper application. The Experimental Advanced Airborne Research LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging)-or EAARL-system was used to obtain topographic and bathymetric data along the Deadwood and South Fork Boise Rivers in west-central Idaho. The EAARL data were post-processed into bare earth and bathymetric raster and point datasets. Concurrently with the EAARL surveys, real-time kinematic global positioning system surveys were made in three areas along each of the rivers to assess the accuracy of the EAARL elevation data in different hydrogeomorphic settings. The accuracies of the EAARL-derived raster elevation values, determined in open, flat terrain, to provide an optimal vertical comparison surface, had root mean square errors ranging from 0.134 to 0.347 m. Accuracies in the elevation values for the stream hydrogeomorphic settings had root mean square errors ranging from 0.251 to 0.782 m. The greater root mean square errors for the latter data are the result of complex hydrogeomorphic environments within the streams, such as submerged aquatic macrophytes and air bubble entrainment; and those along the banks, such as boulders, woody debris, and steep slopes. These complex environments reduce the accuracy of EAARL bathymetric and topographic measurements. Steep banks emphasize the horizontal location discrepancies between the EAARL and ground-survey data and may not be good representations of vertical accuracy. The EAARL point to ground-survey comparisons produced results with slightly higher but similar root mean square errors than those for the EAARL raster to ground-survey comparisons, emphasizing the minimized horizontal offset by using interpolated values from the raster dataset at the exact location of the ground-survey point as opposed to an actual EAARL point within a 1-meter distance. The average error for the wetted stream channel surface areas was -0.5 percent, while the average error for the wetted stream channel volume was -8.3 percent. The volume of the wetted river channel was underestimated by an average of 31 percent in half of the survey areas, and overestimated by an average of 14 percent in the remainder of the survey areas. The EAARL system is an efficient way to obtain topographic and bathymetric data in large areas of remote terrain. The elevation accuracy of the EAARL system varies throughout the area depending upon the hydrogeomorphic setting, preventing the use of a single accuracy value to describe the EAARL system. The elevation accuracy variations should be kept in mind when using the data, such as for hydraulic modeling or aquatic habitat assessments.

Idaho↗
USGS2009

Estimated Perennial Streams of Idaho and Related Geospatial Datasets

The perennial or intermittent status of a stream has bearing on many regulatory requirements. Because of changing technologies over time, cartographic representation of perennial/intermittent status of streams on U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) topographic maps is not always accurate and (or) consistent from one map sheet to another. Idaho Administrative Code defines an intermittent stream as one having a 7-day, 2-year low flow (7Q2) less than 0.1 cubic feet per second. To establish consistency with the Idaho Administrative Code, the USGS developed regional regression equations for Idaho streams for several low-flow statistics, including 7Q2. Using these regression equations, the 7Q2 streamflow may be estimated for naturally flowing streams anywhere in Idaho to help determine perennial/intermittent status of streams. Using these equations in conjunction with a Geographic Information System (GIS) technique known as weighted flow accumulation allows for an automated and continuous estimation of 7Q2 streamflow at all points along a stream, which in turn can be used to determine if a stream is intermittent or perennial according to the Idaho Administrative Code operational definition. The selected regression equations were applied to create continuous grids of 7Q2 estimates for the eight low-flow regression regions of Idaho. By applying the 0.1 ft3/s criterion, the perennial streams have been estimated in each low-flow region. Uncertainty in the estimates is shown by identifying a 'transitional' zone, corresponding to flow estimates of 0.1 ft3/s plus and minus one standard error. Considerable additional uncertainty exists in the model of perennial streams presented in this report. The regression models provide overall estimates based on general trends within each regression region. These models do not include local factors such as a large spring or a losing reach that may greatly affect flows at any given point. Site-specific flow data, assuming a sufficient period of record, generally would be considered to represent flow conditions better at a given site than flow estimates based on regionalized regression models. The geospatial datasets of modeled perennial streams are considered a first-cut estimate, and should not be construed to override site-specific flow data.

Data Series↗
USGS2009

Estimating Locations of Perennial Streams in Idaho Using a Generalized Least-Squares Regression Model of 7-Day, 2-Year Low Flows

Many State and Federal agencies use information regarding the locations of streams having intermittent or perennial flow when making management and regulatory decisions. For example, the application of some Idaho water quality standards depends on whether streams are intermittent. Idaho Administrative Code defines an intermittent stream as one having a 7-day, 2-year low flow (7Q2) less than 0.1 ft3/s. However, there is a general recognition that the cartographic representation of perennial/intermittent status of streams on U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) topographic maps is not as accurate or consistent as desirable from one map to another, which makes broad management and regulatory assessments difficult and inconsistent. To help resolve this problem, the USGS has developed a methodology for predicting the locations of perennial streams based on regional generalized least-squares (GLS) regression equations for Idaho streams for the 7Q2 low-flow statistic. Using these regression equations, the 7Q2 streamflow may be estimated for naturally flowing streams in most areas in Idaho. The use of these equations in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) technique known as weighted flow accumulation allows for an automated and continuous estimation of 7Q2 streamflow at all points along stream reaches. The USGS has developed a GIS-based map of the locations of streams in Idaho with perennial flow based on a 7Q2 of 0.1 ft3/s and a transition zone of plus or minus 1 standard error. Idaho State cooperators plan to use this information to make regulatory and water-quality management decisions. Originally, 7Q2 equations were developed for eight regions of similar hydrologic characteristics in the study area, using long-term data from 234 streamflow-gaging stations. Equations in five of the regions were revised based on spatial patterns observed in the initial perennial streams map and unrealistic behavior of the equations in extrapolation. The standard errors of prediction for the final equations ranged from a minimum of +75.0 to -42.9 percent in the central part of the study area to a maximum of +277 to -73.5 percent in the southern part of the study area. The equations are applicable only to unregulated, naturally-flowing streams and may produce unreliable results outside the range of explanatory variables used for equation development. Extrapolation outside the range of available data was necessary, however, to predict perennial flow initiation points and transition zones along stream reaches. The map of perennial streams was evaluated by comparing predicted stream classifications with four independent datasets, including field observations by other government agencies. Overall, 81 percent of the comparison data points agreed with the USGS perennial streams model. Regions with the highest number of disagreements had a high percentage of mountainous and forested area with potential mountain front recharge zones, and regions with the highest agreements had a high percentage of low gradient, low elevation area. As a whole, the USGS model predicted a higher number of perennial streams than predictions made with the independent datasets. Some disagreements were due to poor site location coordinates, timing of the comparison site visits during unusually wet or dry years, discrepancies in classification criteria, and variable ground water contributions to flow in some areas. The Idaho Department of Environmental Quality Beneficial Use Reconnaissance Program (BURP) dataset is considered the most representative dataset for comparison because it covered a range of climate conditions and the number of sites visited were consistent from year to year during the study period. Eighty-five percent of BURP comparison data points agreed with the USGS perennial streams model. Although site-specific flow data may be needed to correctly classify streams in some areas, this information rarely is available and is not always practical to o

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2009

Evaluation of LiDAR-Acquired Bathymetric and Topographic Data Accuracy in Various Hydrogeomorphic Settings in the Lower Boise River, Southwestern Idaho, 2007

Elevation data in riverine environments can be used in various applications for which different levels of accuracy are required. The Experimental Advanced Airborne Research LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) - or EAARL - system was used to obtain topographic and bathymetric data along the lower Boise River, southwestern Idaho, for use in hydraulic and habitat modeling. The EAARL data were post-processed into bare earth and bathymetric raster and point datasets. Concurrently with the EAARL data collection, real-time kinetic global positioning system and total station ground-survey data were collected in three areas within the lower Boise River basin to assess the accuracy of the EAARL elevation data in different hydrogeomorphic settings. The accuracies of the EAARL-derived elevation data, determined in open, flat terrain, to provide an optimal vertical comparison surface, had root mean square errors ranging from 0.082 to 0.138 m. Accuracies for bank, floodplain, and in-stream bathymetric data had root mean square errors ranging from 0.090 to 0.583 m. The greater root mean square errors for the latter data are the result of high levels of turbidity in the downstream ground-survey area, dense tree canopy, and horizontal location discrepancies between the EAARL and ground-survey data in steeply sloping areas such as riverbanks. The EAARL point to ground-survey comparisons produced results similar to those for the EAARL raster to ground-survey comparisons, indicating that the interpolation of the EAARL points to rasters did not introduce significant additional error. The mean percent error for the wetted cross-sectional areas of the two upstream ground-survey areas was 1 percent. The mean percent error increases to -18 percent if the downstream ground-survey area is included, reflecting the influence of turbidity in that area.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2007

Water-resource trends and comparisons between partial-development and October 2006 hydrologic conditions, Wood River Valley, south-central Idaho

This report analyzes trends in ground-water and surface-water data, documents 2006 hydrologic conditions, and compares 2006 and historic ground-water data of the Wood River Valley of south-central Idaho. The Wood River Valley extends from Galena Summit southward to the Timmerman Hills. It is comprised of a single unconfined aquifer and an underlying confined aquifer present south of Baseline Road in the southern part of the study area. Streams are well-connected to the shallow unconfined aquifer. Because the entire population of the area depends on ground water for domestic supply, either from domestic or municipal-supply wells, rapid population growth since the 1970s has raised concerns about the continued availability of ground and surface water to support existing uses and streamflow. To help address these concerns, this report evaluates ground- and surface-water conditions in the area before and during the population growth that started in the 1970s. Mean annual water levels in three wells (two completed in the unconfined aquifer and one in the confined aquifer) with more than 50 years of semi-annual measurements showed statistically significant declining trends. Mean annual and monthly streamflow trends were analyzed for three gaging stations in the Wood River Valley. The Big Wood River at Hailey gaging station (13139500) showed a statistically significant trend of a 25-percent increase in mean monthly base flow for March over the 90-year period of record, possibly because of earlier snowpack runoff. Both the 7-day and 30-day low-flow analyses for the Big Wood River near Bellevue gaging station (13141000) show a mean decrease of approximately 15 cubic feet per second since the 1940s, and mean monthly discharge showed statistically significant decreasing trends for December, January, and February. The Silver Creek at Sportsman Access near Picabo gaging station (13150430) also showed statistically significant decreasing trends in annual and mean monthly discharge for July through February and April from 1975 to 2005. Comparisons of partial-development (ground-water conditions from 1952 to 1986) and 2006 ground-water resources in the Wood River Valley using a geographic information system indicate that most ground-water levels for the unconfined aquifer in the study area are either stable or declining. Declines are predominant in the southern part of the study area south of Hailey, and some areas exceed what is expected of natural fluctuations in ground-water levels. Some ground-water levels rose in the northern part of the study area; however, these increases are approximated due to a lack of water-level data in the area. Ground-water level declines in the confined aquifer exceed the range of expected natural fluctuations in large areas of the confined aquifer in the southern part of the study area in the Bellevue fan. However, the results in this area are approximated due to limited available water-level data.

Idaho↗
USGS2006

A graphical modeling tool for evaluating nitrogen loading to and nitrate transport in ground water in the mid-Snake region, south-central Idaho

A flow and transport model was created with a graphical user interface to simplify the evaluation of nitrogen loading and nitrate transport in the mid-Snake region in south-central Idaho. This model and interface package, the Snake River Nitrate Scenario Simulator, uses the U.S. Geological Survey's MODFLOW 2000 and MOC3D models. The interface, which is enabled for use with geographic information systems (GIS), was created using ESRI's royalty-free MapObjects LT software. The interface lets users view initial nitrogen-loading conditions (representing conditions as of 1998), alter the nitrogen loading within selected zones by specifying a multiplication factor and applying it to the initial condition, run the flow and transport model, and view a graphical representation of the modeling results. The flow and transport model of the Snake River Nitrate Scenario Simulator was created by rediscretizing and recalibrating a clipped portion of an existing regional flow model. The new subregional model was recalibrated with newly available water-level data and spring and ground-water nitrate concentration data for the study area. An updated nitrogen input GIS layer controls the application of nitrogen to the flow and transport model. Users can alter the nitrogen application to the flow and transport model by altering the nitrogen load in predefined spatial zones contained within similar political, hydrologic, and size-constrained boundaries.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2003

Probability of detecting elevated concentrations of nitrate in ground water in a six-county area of south-central Idaho

A probability map constructed for this study identified several areas in a six-county region of south-central Idaho with high probabilities of detecting elevated concentrations (greater than 2 milligrams per liter) of nitrate. An increasing proportion of Idaho’s ground water being used for drinking water and large increases in the inputs of nitrogen to ground water in Cassia, Gooding, Jerome, Lincoln, Minidoka, and Twin Falls Counties have prompted concerns about the quality of the resource. The probability map was constructed to assist regulatory and resource agencies in managing land use and protecting water resources. To construct the probability map, hydrogeologic and anthropogenic data were integrated with ground-water quality data in a geographic information system. The resulting data set contained land use, geology, precipitation, soil characteristics, depth to ground water, nitrogen input, and ground-water velocity information for each of the 1,365 samples collected from 1991 to 2001. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the most statistically significant variables related to the detection of elevated nitrate concentrations. The resulting multivariate probability model showed that ground-water velocity, nitrogen input, precipitation, soil drainage, land use, and depth to ground water were significantly correlated with elevated nitrate concentrations. A subset of the water-quality data set was used to verify these results. Linear regression of the percentage of predicted probabilities of elevated nitrate concentrations and the actual percentage of elevated nitrate concentrations with the model data set and the verification data set both showed good correlations: r-squared values were 0.96 and 0.97, respectively. Statistical comparisons of both data sets showed that ground-water samples containing elevated nitrate concentrations had significantly higher probabilities of detection (p < 0.001) than samples without elevated nitrate concentrations. On the basis of these results, a map identifying the probability of detecting elevated nitrate concentrations was constructed. High-probability areas on the map coincided with regions of agricultural land use and high nitrogen input, except in southern Gooding County and western Jerome County. In these areas, high ground-water velocities representing a predominance of regional ground water resulted in a low probability of detecting elevated nitrate concentrations. Areas of poor prediction tended to be congregated along the transition zone between high and low ground-water velocities in Jerome and Gooding Counties, indicating a mix of regional and recently recharged ground water.

Idaho↗
USGS2001

Evaluation of macroinvertebrate assemblages in Idaho rivers using multimetric and multivariate techniques, 1996-98

Macroinvertebrate assemblages and environmental variables were evaluated as part of the Idaho statewide surface-water quality monitoring program during 1996–98. Two assessment approaches were used to evaluate the macroinvertebrate data collected from Idaho rivers—biological metrics and multivariate statistical analyses. A total of 247 macroinvertebrate taxa were identified in semiquantitative riffle habitat (richest targeted habitat; RTH) and qualitative multiple habitat (QMH) samples, which were collected from 40 sampling sites. Riffles supported most of the taxa collected at all sites. One hundred and eighty-four taxa (74 percent of total taxa) were identified in the RTH samples. Taxa considered abundant in RTH samples included Oligochaeta, Baetis tricaudatus , Hydropsyche , Simuliidae, Chironomidae pupae, Cricotopus , Eukiefferiella , and Orthocladius complex. Comparisons of RTH and QMH sample types indicated little difference in various metrics evaluated; either sample type could be used to evaluate biological condition. Fourteen coldwater taxa were collected during this study at 12 sampling sites, representing only about 6 percent of all taxa collected and a frequency of occurrence of 30 percent for all sites. An evaluation of the Idaho Department of Environmental Quality invertebrate river index (IRI) identified statistically significant differences between highand low-quality sites, providing evidence that the index can successfully discriminate impairment. IRI scores for all sampling sites identified 25 percent of the sites with poor biotic condition and 68 percent with good biotic condition. Maximum temperatures at 62 percent of all sampling sites exceeded Idaho’s instantaneous coldwater temperature criteria of 22 ° C. No correspondence was evident between ecoregion percentages upstream from each site and macroinvertebrate assemblages. Multivariate analyses of RTH samples identified various environmental variables operating at different spatial scales that affect the macroinvertebrate assemblages in Idaho rivers. Six environmental variables—percent forested land, percent agricultural land, urban land, maximum water temperature, percent substrate fines, and stream gradient—were significant in describing variance in the macroinvertebrate assemblages. Two distinct groups of sites and associated taxa were identified: one represented high-gradient, coldwater, forested and rangeland sites, and the other represented sites influenced by human disturbance, indicated by increased percent substrate fines and increased water temperatures typically associated with agricultural and (or) urban land uses.

Idaho;Montana;Nevada;Oregon;Utah;Washington;Wyomin↗