Geology topics

Keith Schilling

Publications and source records attributed to Keith Schilling.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2022

On the role of climate in monthly baseflow changes across the continental United States

Baseflow is the portion of streamflow that comes from groundwater and subsurface sources. Although baseflow is essential for sustaining streams during low flow and drought periods, we have little information about how and why it has changed over large regions of the continental United States. The objective of this study was to evaluate how changes in the climate system have affected observed monthly baseflow records at 3,283 USGS gauges over the last 30 years (1989–2019). We developed a statistical modeling framework to determine the relationship between monthly baseflow and monthly climate predictors (i.e., precipitation, temperature, and antecedent wetness). Overall, we found that baseflow trends and the factors influencing them vary by region and month. In the US Northeast, increases were detected earlier in the year (February and March) and in the summer (May and June), and were likely due to increasing precipitation, warmer temperature, and subsequent changes in snowmelt. Increasing baseflow in the US Pacific Northwest and Midwest were associated with increases in precipitation and antecedent wetness throughout the year. Decreasing trends were located in the US Southeast and Southwest. Baseflow trends in the US Southeast were only detected in March, possibly as a result of decreased precipitation during the spring. On the other hand, decreases in baseflow in the Central Southwestern United States occurred throughout the year. These trends were associated with a lack of precipitation and increases in temperature. Finally, we examined the relationship between monthly baseflow trends and changes in total water storage using monthly Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mascon products from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. In this study, trends in total water storage were strongly associated with baseflow trends across the United States. The spatial and temporal variability in baseflow response to climate reported here can aid water managers in adapting to future climate change.

continental United States↗

USGS2015

Reducing fertilizer-nitrogen losses from rowcrop landscapes: Insights and implications from a spatially explicit watershed model

We present conceptual and quantitative models that predict changes in fertilizer-derived nitrogen delivery from rowcrop landscapes caused by agricultural conservation efforts implemented to reduce nutrient inputs and transport and increase nutrient retention in the landscape. To evaluate the relative importance of changes in the sources, transport, and sinks of fertilizer-derived nitrogen across a region, we use the spatially explicit SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes watershed model to map the distribution, at the small watershed scale within the Upper Mississippi-Ohio River Basin (UMORB), of: (1) fertilizer inputs; (2) nutrient attenuation during delivery of those inputs to the UMORB outlet; and (3) nitrogen export from the UMORB outlet. Comparing these spatial distributions suggests that the amount of fertilizer input and degree of nutrient attenuation are both important in determining the extent of nitrogen export. From a management perspective, this means that agricultural conservation efforts to reduce nitrogen export would benefit by: (1) expanding their focus to include activities that restore and enhance nutrient processing in these highly altered landscapes; and (2) targeting specific types of best management practices to watersheds where they will be most valuable. Doing so successfully may result in a shift in current approaches to conservation planning, outreach, and funding.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio↗

USGS2014

Reducing nitrogen export from the corn belt to the Gulf of Mexico: agricultural strategies for remediating hypoxia

SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed models developed for the Upper Midwest were used to help evaluate the nitrogen-load reductions likely to be achieved by a variety of agricultural conservation practices in the Upper Mississippi-Ohio River Basin (UMORB) and to compare these reductions to the 45% nitrogen-load reduction proposed to remediate hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). Our results indicate that nitrogen-management practices (improved fertilizer management and cover crops) fall short of achieving this goal, even if adopted on all cropland in the region. The goal of a 45% decrease in loads to the GoM can only be achieved through the coupling of nitrogen-management practices with innovative nitrogen-removal practices such as tile-drainage treatment wetlands, drainage–ditch enhancements, stream-channel restoration, and floodplain reconnection. Combining nitrogen-management practices with nitrogen-removal practices can dramatically reduce nutrient export from agricultural landscapes while minimizing impacts to agricultural production. With this approach, it may be possible to meet the 45% nutrient reduction goal while converting less than 1% of cropland in the UMORB to nitrogen-removal practices. Conservationists, policy makers, and agricultural producers seeking a workable strategy to reduce nitrogen export from the Corn Belt will need to consider a combination of nitrogen-management practices at the field scale and diverse nitrogen-removal practices at the landscape scale.

Ohio River Basin, Upper Mississippi River Basin↗

USGS2004

Temporal scaling of hydraulic head and river base flow and its implication for groundwater recharge

Spectral analyses were conducted for hourly hydraulic head ( h ) data observed over a 4‐year period at seven monitoring wells in the Walnut Creek watershed, Iowa. The log power spectral density of the hydraulic head fluctuations versus log frequency ( f ) at all seven wells is shown to have a distinct slope or fractal dimension ( D ), indicating temporal scaling in the time series of water level fluctuations. The fractal dimension of the time series varies from well to well, and the spectrum for the average h over all seven wells has a fractal dimension of 1.46 and Hurst coefficient of 0.54. The log power spectral density of estimated base flow in the Walnut Creek and four other watersheds versus log f is shown to have two distinct slopes with a break in scaling at about 30 days. It is shown that the groundwater recharge process in a basin can be estimated from a head spectrum based on existing theoretical results. Hydraulic head in an aquifer may fluctuate as a fractal in time in response to either a white noise or fractal recharge process, depending on physical parameters (i.e., transmissivity and specific yield) of the aquifer. The recharge process at the Walnut Creek watershed is shown to have a white noise spectrum based on the observed head spectrum.

Water Resources Research↗