Geology topics

Keith Nislow

Publications and source records attributed to Keith Nislow.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Does habitat or climate change drive species range shifts?

A primary prediction of climate change ecology is that species will track their climate niche poleward and upslope. However, studies have shown species responding in surprising ways. In this study, we aim to understand the impact of global change on species ranges by considering both climate and habitat changes. Using occupancy analysis of acoustic survey data in the mountains of the northeastern United States, we tested specific predictions of range responses to warming (shifting upslope), precipitation change (shifting downslope), and forest composition change (shifting downslope). We found that American red squirrels Tamiasciurus hudsonicus , key nodes in northern North American food webs, are not tracking increasing temperatures upslope, despite substantial warming in recent decades. Structural equation modeling indicates that red squirrel abundance is primarily influenced by red-spruce forest cover, which has shifted downslope with recovery from historical logging and acid deposition. Accounting for the multiple dimensions of global change will enable better predictions and more effective conservation strategies.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗

USGS2025

Negative growth in body mass of trout and salmon in a small stream network

In species inhabiting stressful environments, some individuals experience negative growth in body mass during their lives, potentially influencing survival, reproduction, populations, and ecosystems. Using data from a long-term (1997–2015) study of brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ), brown trout ( Salmo trutta ), and juvenile Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ) in Massachusetts, USA, we analyzed the frequency, causes, and consequences of seasonal mass loss. Negative growth occurred in 14.8% of observations (3573 instances), with the highest prevalence during summer (June–September). Species differed markedly: 42.5% of juvenile Atlantic salmon, 24.9% of brook trout, but only 7.7% of brown trout exhibited negative growth. The likelihood of mass loss increased with size, age, and low stream flows, particularly in summer. Brook trout in the small or isolated tributaries exhibited less summer mass loss than those in the larger streams. Other factors, including temperature and population density, had minimal or inconsistent effects. Individuals experiencing negative growth, especially brook trout in summer and autumn, were less likely to be re-encountered. As we observed no association of mass loss with movement, this suggests a potential survival cost of negative body mass growth.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2023

Identifying mechanisms underlying individual body size increases in a changing, highly seasonal environment: The growing trout of West Brook

As air temperature increases, it has been suggested that smaller individual body size may be a general response to climate warming. However, for ectotherms inhabiting cold, highly seasonal environments, warming temperatures may increase the scope for growth and result in larger body size. In a long-term study of individual brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and brown trout Salmo trutta inhabiting a small stream network, individual lengths increased over the course of 15 years. As size-selective gains and losses to the population acted to reduce body sizes and mean body size at first tagging in the autumn (<60 mm) were not observed to change substantially over time, the increase in body size was best explained by higher individual growth rates. For brook trout, increasing water temperatures during the spring (when both trout species accomplish most of their total annual growth) was the primary driver of growth rate for juvenile fish and the environmental factor which best explained increases in individual body size over time. For brown trout, by contrast, reduction in and subsequent elimination of juvenile Atlantic salmon Salmo salar midway through the study period explained most of the increases in juvenile growth and body size. In addition to these major trends, a considerable amount of interannual variation in trout growth and body size was explained by other abiotic (stream flow) and biotic (population density) factors with the direction and magnitude of these effects differing by season, age-class and species. For example, stream flow was the dominant growth rate driver for adult fish with strong positive effects in the summer and autumn, but flow variation could not explain increases in body size as we observed no trend in flow. Overall, our work supports the general contention that for high-latitude ectotherms, increasing spring temperatures associated with a warming climate can result in increased growth and individual body size (up to a point), but context-dependent change in other factors can substantially contribute to both interannual variation and longer-term effects.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2022

Restoring aquatic habitats through dam removal

This report presents results from a four-year project (2018–2022) to document the effects of small, run-of-river dams and dam removal on water quality (stream temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO)), aquatic macroinvertebrates, and fishes. Temperature and DO are critical water quality parameters that shape biogeochemical processes and biotic assemblages in streams. Macroinvertebrate and fish assemblages can be reflective of habitat and water quality due to their diversity and sensitivity to high temperatures and low DO and are often used as indicators of ecosystem health (e.g., Clean Water Act Section 401). This study aimed to better explain the responses of these important ecological parameters to small dam removals, which may support a more comprehensive understanding of the benefits of restoration to aquatic ecosystems. We collected pre- and post-restoration water quality data and macroinvertebrate samples at 16 small dams in Massachusetts that have been removed (10 sites) or are currently being considered for removal (6 sites). General results from these monitoring efforts indicate that: ● 15 of 16 small dams increased impoundment water temperatures and warming persisted downstream at 11 of those sites, relative to upstream. Dam removal reduced summer impoundment warming at 7 of 10 removal sites and reduced downstream warming at 5 of 10 sites. These in-stream temperature improvements occurred within 5 years after dam removal. ● 13 of 16 small dams negatively impacted dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations within the impoundments, but the magnitude of impact varied across sites. Negative impoundment DO impacts did not consistently translate downstream, and downstream responses to dam removal were generally minimal and variable across sites. Dam removal significantly reduced negative impoundment DO impacts within 1 year after removal at 7 of 10 sites, and sites with greater pre-removal impacts experienced the greatest magnitude of DO recovery after dam removal. ● Interannual variability in dam impacts on water quality across sites suggests periods of extreme weather (i.e., droughts or high precipitation) due to climate change may exacerbate adverse impacts from run-of-river dams. ● Macroinvertebrate assemblages within dam impoundments differed from assemblages in adjacent un-impounded stream sections and exhibited a loss of sensitive organisms (an average of 17% fewer). Dam removal led to more similar macroinvertebrate assemblages throughout most stream sections, and recovery of sensitive taxa occurred relatively quickly (1-3 years). ● Fish species richness increased upstream at 2 of 10 removal sites, suggesting potential increases in fish passage from downstream reaches. However, particular species, such as American Eel ( Anguilla rostrata ), exhibited both positive and negative responses to dam removal across study sites. Incorporating more sites with pre-and post-dam removal fish data could allow for better understanding factors explaining site-specific differences.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2019

Daily estimates reveal fine-scale temporal and spatial variation in fish survival across a stream network

Environmental drivers of population vital rates, such as temperature and precipitation, often vary at short time scales, and these fluctuations can have important impacts on population dynamics. However, relationships between survival and environmental conditions are typically modeled at coarse temporal scales, ignoring the role of daily environmental variation in survival. Our goal was to determine the importance of fine-scale temporal variation in survival to population dynamics of stream salmonids. We extended the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model to estimate daily survival rates from seasonal samples of individually marked brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) in a stream network. Daily variation in temperature and flow were strongly associated with survival, but relationships varied between juvenile and adult trout and among streams. In all streams, juveniles had higher mortality in warm, low-flow conditions, but in the two larger streams, cold, high-flow conditions also reduced juvenile survival. Adult survival decreased during low flows, particularly in the fall spawning period. Differing survival responses among stream network components to short-term environmental events created shifts in optimal location for maximum survival across life stages, seasons, and years.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2019

Final Report for Phase 1 - USGS-NE CSC and USFS-NRS Cooperative Research on Climate-Vulnerable Habitats and Species in the Northeast

The US Forest Service (USFS) and Northeast Climate (Adaptation) Science Center (NE CASC) came together to focus research and management cooperation on the topic of the impacts of climate change on forested ecosystems. This work had 3 primary components: 1) modeling headwater stream refugia; 2) investigating resilience and resistance strategies for New England forests; and 3) studying the impact of climate change on forest mammal communities. USFS and NE CASC organizations have complimentary expertise to share in order to improve natural resource management in the critical montane and headwater habitats in the region, and worked together to use this expertise in advancing science and science support for natural resource adaptation to a changing climate. This work resulted in increased understanding of the direct, indirect, and interactive responses of at-risk coldwater, montane and northern species to a changing climate; 2) the development of approaches and strategies for adaptation, including identification of potential climate refugia; and 3) interactive platforms for data, models and forecasts to communicate these and related results to the conservation and management community.

Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Ke↗

USGS2019

Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar) climate scenario planning pilot report

Scenario planning is a structured process that embraces uncertainty and explores plausible alternative future conditions under different assumptions to help manage risk and prioritize actions ( Schwartz 1996, Peterson et al . 2003). It has been used by a variety of organizations to explore and help prepare for the future, lends itself well to exploring the uncertainty surrounding changing environmental conditions, and is widely applicable to natural resource management issues. The conservation and management of protected resources for example, can be particularly challenging when the rate and magnitude of climate-related changes, and the response of species to those changes, are uncertain (NMFS 2016). The structured process of scenario planning can help resource managers navigate through potentially paralyzing uncertainties, manage risk, and evaluate/prioritize management actions associated with adapting to, and managing for, climate change (Moore et al . 2013). Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ) is a species highly vulnerable to climate change in the Northeast Atlantic (Hare et al . 2016a). Based on this and the above reasons, a scenario planning initiative was piloted by NOAA Fisheries to explore what the agency can do to improve U.S.Atlantic salmon population resilience to changing climate conditions in riverine, estuarine(transition), and marine environments across its current range (U.S. headwaters to Greenland). Project objectives were: 1) to better understand the challenges of managing Atlantic salmon in a changing climate; 2) to identify and discuss potential management actions and research activities that can be undertaken to increase our understanding of the drivers of Atlantic salmon productivity and resilience; 3) to increase collaborations and coordination related to the speciesrecovery; and 4) to explore how scenario planning can be used to support decisions. Outcomes from this initiative included, but were not limited to, the identification of high priority research and management actions to further collaborations and efforts to recover this species. The identified high priority actions were those that could be undertaken in the near-term(1-5 years) using current resources and in consideration of potential future conditions. Examples of identified actions by habitat (not in order of priority) included: 1) synthesize and refine range-wide life stage specific quantitative environmental thresholds for temperature, flow, etc.; 2) assess watershed habitat productivity; 3) assess forage fish and survival connection and options for marine migration monitoring; and 4) reduce dam-associated indirect estuarine mortality rate. In addition, a number of high priority climate-related actions were included in the revised Atlantic Salmon Recovery Plan (USFWS and NMFS 2019, Appendix 16) and at least two newly NOAA Fisheries funded projects are now underway (1. conduct range-wide habitat analysis and synthesize life stage specific quantitative thresholds and 2. identify locations of cold water refugia under a changing climate). This is the first use of the scenario planning process (NPS 2013) by NOAA Fisheries. This report documents an important example of applying scenario planning to marine species/environments and may serve as a useful reference for other case studies.

Atlantic Ocean↗

USGS2018

Three visualization approaches for communicating and exploring PIT tag data

As the number, size and complexity of ecological datasets has increased, narrative and interactive raw data visualizations have emerged as important tools for exploring and understanding these large datasets. As a demonstration, we developed three visualizations to communicate and explore passive integrated transponder tag data from two long-term field studies. We created three independent visualizations for the same dataset, allowing separate entry points for users with different goals and experience levels. The first visualization uses a narrative approach to introduce users to the study. The second visualization provides interactive cross-filters that allow users to explore multi-variate relationships in the dataset. The last visualization allows users to visualize the movement histories of individual fish within the stream network. This suite of visualization tools allows a progressive discovery of more detailed information and should make the data accessible to users with a wide variety of backgrounds and interests.

Maine, Massachusetts↗

USGS2014

Making decisions in complex landscapes: Headwater stream management across multiple federal agencies

Headwater stream ecosystems are vulnerable to numerous threats associated with climate and land use change. In the northeastern US, many headwater stream species (e.g., brook trout and stream salamanders) are of special conservation concern and may be vulnerable to climate change influences, such as changes in stream temperature and streamflow. Federal land management agencies (e.g., US Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, USDA Forest Service, Bureau of Land Management and Department of Defense) are required to adopt policies that respond to climate change and may have longer-term institutional support to enforce such policies compared to state, local, non-governmental, or private land managers. However, federal agencies largely make management decisions in regards to headwater stream ecosystems independently. This fragmentation of management resources and responsibilities across the landscape may significantly impede the efficiency and effectiveness of conservation actions, and higher degrees of collaboration may be required to achieve conservation goals. This project seeks to provide an example of cooperative landscape decision-making to address the conservation of headwater stream ecosystems. We identified shared and contrasting objectives of each federal agency and potential collaboration opportunities that may increase efficient and effective management of headwater stream ecosystems in two northeastern US watersheds. These workshops provided useful insights into the adaptive capacity of federal institutions to address threats to headwater stream ecosystems. Our ultimate goal is to provide a decision-making framework and analysis that addresses large-scale conservation threats across multiple stakeholders, as a demonstration of cooperative landscape conservation for aquatic ecosystems. Additionally, we aim to provide new scientific knowledge and a regional perspective to resource managers to help inform local management decisions.

Maine, New Hampshire, Virginia, West Virginia↗