Geology topics

Katie M. Dugger

Publications and source records attributed to Katie M. Dugger.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Age and colony variation in Adélie penguin metapopulation vital rates: Insights from a 25-year mark–recapture study

Understanding how vital rates vary with age, life-history stage, and among populations is fundamental for predicting the demographic consequences of environmental change, especially in longer-lived species with complex life histories. These species often exhibit delayed maturity and iteroparity, making nuanced demographic insights critical for assessing their long-term viability. This study investigated age- and colony-related variation in Adélie penguin vital rates including survival, recruitment, and breeding propensity. We used mark–recapture data collected over 25 years (1996–2020) from three Adélie penguin breeding colonies that differed in population sizes and trends but comprised a metapopulation located at capes Royds, Bird, and Crozier on Ross Island, Antarctica. We used multi-state models to estimate survival and detection rates relative to reproductive state and breeding colony and estimated transition probabilities reflecting movements between reproductive states and colonies. Apparent survival varied by reproductive state, colony, and age and averaged 0.80 (SD = 0.02) at Bird, and 0.72 (SD = 0.03) and 0.73 (SD = 0.03) at Crozier and Royds, respectively, for pre-breeders age 2–7 years with strong declines in pre-breeder survival after age 8. We observed less age-related variation in survival of breeders and non-breeders, but we observed differences between colonies with lower survival for breeders (0.72 to 0.80) compared to non-breeders (0.75 to 0.82). The average probability of surviving the first 2 years after fledging ranged from 0.43 (SD = 0.14) at Royds and Crozier (0.43, SD = 0.10) to 0.55 (SD = 0.15) at Bird. Movement between colonies was highest for pre-breeders (0.00%–12.00% depending on age and colony) and lowest for breeders (<0.20%). We observed the lowest age-related recruitment rates at Royds, with recruitment at Crozier almost twice as high, and intermediate at Bird. Breeding propensity was highest at Crozier and lowest at Bird. Colony-specific variation in vital rates likely contributed differently to population trajectories, suggesting that care must be taken to extrapolate vital rate estimates across colonies even within a metapopulation. These findings also highlight the importance of considering age, life-history stage, and geographic variation when assessing population vital rates in species with complex life histories.

Frontiers in Ecology and Environment↗

USGS2026

Listening for extinction: Range-wide occupancy highlights critical risks and priorities for northern spotted owls

The northern spotted owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) continues to decline across its range, threatened by habitat disturbances and invasive barred owls ( Strix varia ). We conducted a range-wide spotted owl occupancy assessment using 2.1 million h of passive acoustic recordings from 4081 survey stations within 1027 randomly selected 5-km 2 hexagons across six physiographic regions. Applying multistate occupancy models, we estimated probabilities of landscape use (by at least one northern spotted owl) and pair occupancy (occupied by both a male and a female), while accounting for imperfect and sex-biased detection probability. Detection probability of pairs was low in most regions, primarily due to undetected females, but increased with survey effort. If management decisions can only be made when there is a high probability of detecting both sexes when they are present, then longer surveys are one approach to support the decisions. Landscape use and pair occupancy were positively associated with old-growth forest structure and topographic diversity. We also found a pronounced latitudinal gradient in spotted owl landscape use rates with estimated mean landscape use of 0.17 (SE = 0.03) and 0.16 (SE = 0.02) in the two most northern regions, and 0.54 (SE = 0.04) and 0.52 (SE = 0.05) in the two most southern regions. Pair occupancy rates were higher in southern regions (0.29, SE = 0.03, 0.43, SE = 0.05) and very low in northern regions (0.04, SE = 0.01, 0.03, SE = 0.01). In contrast to spotted owls, barred owls were detected in 90% of northern hexagons and 50% of southern hexagons, and barred owl calling intensity was over eight times higher than spotted owls. These results highlight extinction risks in several regions and suggest that management actions, such as spatially targeted barred owl control and protection of structurally complex habitats, have a narrow temporal window in which they can be effective in lowering the probability of regional extirpations. We generated predictive maps of landscape use and pair occupancy, which could help guide regional conservation strategies. This study demonstrates how passive acoustic monitoring and machine learning can be used for broad-scale ecological monitoring, identifying extinction risk thresholds, supporting adaptive management, and improving conservation outcomes for wide-ranging and elusive species that can reliably be detected through unique vocalizations.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2026

Ringtail (Bassariscus astutus) survival in southwestern Oregon

The effective conservation and management of small carnivore populations requires understanding species’ life-history traits and identifying important vital rates that drive population trajectories. However, many of these species are rare or elusive and of state or federal conservation concern, and demographic information is often lacking and difficult to obtain. At the northern limit of their range in Oregon, USA, ringtail ( Bassariscus astutus ) occupy mid-elevation forests and are a species of conservation concern because of their limited distribution and suspected low density. We initiated a radio-telemetry study in 2020 to estimate monthly and annual survival of ringtail in southwest Oregon. We monitored 26 ringtail from November 2020 to October 2022 and estimated survival rates using a known-fate framework and Program MARK. Model-averaged monthly survival estimates ranged from lows of 0.963 (SE = 0.022, 95% CI = 0.887–0.988) in spring (Feb–May) of 2021 to highs of 0.980 (SE = 0.018, 95% CI = 0.889–0.997) in summer (Jun–Oct) of 2022. Model-averaged estimates of annual survival were 0.695 (SE = 0.176, 95% CI = 0.310–0.920) during 2020–2021 and 0.728 (SE = 0.168, 95% CI = 0.336–0.934) during 2021–2022. Predation was the leading cause of mortality, but notably, no mortalities could be attributed to avian predation. Survival rates were much higher within forested landscapes in Oregon than for populations in the southwestern United States, which may have implications for regional conservation and management strategies.

Oregon↗

USGS2026

Importance of fish in the diet of Adélie penguins across multiple life stages

Over recent decades, the Adélie penguin ( Pygoscelis adeliae ) population has grown across most of its range, the exception being the northern coast of the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). In the Ross Sea, the very large Cape Crozier colony grew to reach ~9% of the global population. Demographic factors driving the Cape Crozier trend have yet to be identified. However, low chick fledging mass - a negative influence in the northern WAP where the diet is mostly less-energy-dense krill - is not showing an effect in the Cape Crozier colony. Previously, we hypothesized that Cape Crozier fledglings, and post-breeding adults, must be finding sufficient higher-quality prey once free of the prey-depleted colony foraging area, with subsequent higher survival. Here we explore penguin diet within and outside the colony foraging area using stable isotope analysis (SIA) of feathers: those grown by post-breeding adults outside the foraging area, prior to moult, compared to those of near-fledged chicks raised on meals obtained within the foraging area. Second, we explore whether a major difference occurs between breeding and post-breeding diet of adults from a small, nearby colony (Cape Royds) that exploits a smaller, little-depleted preyscape. Finally, we compare the results to SIA analyses published by others to explore whether the pre-moult diet of Ross Island adults, mostly foraging within the north-eastern Ross Sea, compares with that of adults nesting in the southern WAP (Bellingshausen Sea coast). At the latter, populations are not decreasing, with diet containing an appreciable contribution of fish. The results confirmed that fish contributed greatly to chick diets at both Ross Island colonies (δ 15 N 10.6–11.4). Once adults were released from central-place foraging, SIA levels (δ 15 N 9.7–12.9) were similar to those of the southern WAP. Foraging on energy-dense fish in coastal Antarctic waters could be one reason Adélie penguins are among the most abundant and therefore most ecologically successful penguin species.

Antarctic Science↗

USGS2026

Novel avian papillomaviruses identified in a south polar skua sampled on Ross Island, Antarctica

Papillomaviruses are small circular DNA viruses that infect epithelial cells of their hosts. Avian papillomaviruses are poorly sampled/documented compared to those infecting humans. We used a viral metagenomic approach to identify viruses from the oral swab taken from a deceased south polar skua ( Stercorarius maccormicki ) found at Cape Royds, Ross Island, Antarctica in late 2024. We identified three papillomaviruses and determined their complete genomes, Stercorarius maccormicki papillomavirus (SmacPV) 1-3. SmacPV1 is the most divergent of the three SmacPVs, sharing 62% genome-wide pairwise identity to SmacPV2 and SmacPV3 and <63.5% to other avian papillomaviruses. The genomes of SmacPV2 and SmacPV3 represent two new papillomavirus types sharing 82.4% genome-wide pairwise identity with each other and <72% to other papillomaviruses. SmacPV2 and SmacPV3 phylogenetically cluster with sequences of the Rissa tridactyla papillomavirus 1 from black-legged kittiwake ( Rissa tridactyla ), Larus smithsonianus papillomavirus 1 from American herring gull ( Larus smithsonianus ) and Fratercula arctica papillomavirus 1 from Atlantic puffin ( Fratercula arctica ), and they collectively represent a new papillomavirus species. These are the first papillomaviruses to be identified in Stercorarius spp . and add to the handful of known papillomaviruses in identified avian species. We also expand the known host range of papillomaviruses in Antarctic animals, which previously included Adélie penguins ( Pygoscelis adeliae ), Weddell seals ( Leptonychotes weddellii ), Antarctic fur seals ( Arctocephalus gazella ), leopard seals ( Hydrurga leptonyx ) and emerald notothen ( Trematomus bernacchii ).

Archives of Virology↗

USGS2026

Ungulate migrations of the Western United States, volume 6

This report, volume 6 in the “Ungulate Migrations of the Western United States” report series, showcases the migrations of 23 ungulate herds in the Western United States. The report series is produced by the Corridor Mapping Team (CMT). Led by the U.S. Geological Survey, the CMT is a collaboration among 11 State agencies, as well as regional and Federal partners, and an expanding number of Tribal wildlife agencies. The CMT was initiated in response to the U.S. Department of the Interior Secretarial Order 3362, which was signed in 2018 and provided Federal support to expand existing research efforts to study ungulate populations and conserve their migrations throughout the Western United States. Including this volume, the report series has detailed the migrations of 237 unique ungulate herds throughout the Western United States and continues to serve as a valuable resource to guide local and regional management, policy, and on-the-ground work necessary to maintain intact and functional ungulate migrations. This report highlights several guiding principles of the CMT that facilitate collaboration among the diverse set of partners and contribute to the program’s continued successes. Notably, raw global positioning system data are not shared among participating agencies and the U.S. Geological Survey, delineating migration corridors and seasonal ranges relies on empirical data, the CMT provides flexible approaches to participating State and Tribal partners, and regular CMT meetings create a framework for open communication among agency partners that supports transboundary mapping of migrations. The 237 ungulate migrations that have been included in the report series are an expanding inventory, which can help maintain ungulate migrations in perpetuity.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗

USGS2026

Timing the tuxedo transformation: Moult phenology reflects breeding investment and intrinsic constraints in Adélie penguins

Vertebrate life histories are often divided into distinct periods, with the breeding season typically receiving the most research attention. For polar seabirds, non-breeding phases like moult remain understudied, despite their importance for survival and overall fitness. Adélie penguins ( Pygoscelis adeliae ) replace their highly specialized feathers during an approximately 19-day annual moult, typically carried out while fasting on sea ice. The required fast and elevated metabolic rate may create a significant energetic bottleneck. We analysed data from geolocating dive recorders deployed on known-age Adélie penguins and non-known-age pairs from two Ross Island colonies over three winters (2017–2019). Moult start date was influenced by breeding success, intrinsic factors (age, sex) and extrinsic factors (year), with males, older birds and successful breeders moulting later. Moult duration varied primarily with individual ID, though later initiation correlated with shorter duration, particularly when located further south. Moult duration was longer in the western Ross Sea, a region that was used exclusively by males. The association between moult start date and duration may lead to differential sex and breeding status effects, with older males more likely to face a trade-off between successful breeding and self-maintenance tasks like feather replacement.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B↗

USGS2026

Fostering landscape resilience and species conservation in frequent fire landscapes

Restoration of dry forest landscapes of the Pacific Northwest often involves the removal of some closed-canopy forest that has expanded due to fire exclusion, but this can conflict with species conservation when species require closed-canopy forest as part of their habitat. Fire refugia—areas within fire perimeters that burn less severely or frequently—might provide a solution to this conflict. We used a species-specific approach to understanding fire refugia for northern spotted owls to model the post-fire persistence of nesting and roosting (NR) forest in the frequent fire landscapes of the eastern Washington Cascades and the Klamath province and parts of the southern Cascades. Persistent NR forest occurred in topographically sheltered locations and lower slope positions whereas less persistent NR forest occurred in topographically exposed locations. These patterns of persistence reflect historical vegetation patterns when complex interactions among topography, vegetation and weather maintained resilient landscapes. These vegetation patterns may also resemble higher quality heterogenous habitat for spotted owls. Our models can help managers achieve the dual objectives of maintaining viable populations of native species, including those that rely on closed-canopy forests, while also restoring resilient landscapes. In an era of rapid ecological change, we suggest that northern spotted owl conservation and fire-adapted landscape restoration are not opposing goals. By identifying the biophysical settings that promote persistent NR forest and acknowledging the role of heterogeneous landscapes for maintaining resilient ecosystems and high quality spotted owl habitat, the dual objectives of supporting long-term resilience for native species and ecosystems can be achieved.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2025

Diversity of polyomaviruses and papillomaviruses in penguins from eastern and western Antarctica

Polyomaviruses and papillomaviruses are icosahedral viruses with small circular dsDNA genomes. Limited information on their diversity and evolution in avian hosts is available, with even less known regarding Antarctic penguins. Prior to this study, only one polyomavirus and two papillomaviruses had been identified in Adélie penguins ( Pygoscelis adeliae ). To expand our knowledge of these viruses in Antarctic penguins, we collected faecal and cloacal swab samples from 246 Adélie penguins over 3 breeding seasons (2021–2024) and 10 emperor penguins ( Aptenodytes forsteri ) during the 2023–2024 season on Ross Island (Ross Sea). Additionally, we sampled 66 Adélie, 40 chinstrap ( Pygoscelis antarcticus ) and 71 gentoo ( Pygoscelis papua ) penguins during the 2022–2023 season across various sites on the Antarctic Peninsula. All samples were screened for papillomaviruses and polyomaviruses. We identified 31 polyomaviruses in Adélie, gentoo and chinstrap penguins and 4 papillomaviruses in Adélie penguins sampled in both eastern and western Antarctica. The 31 penguin polyomaviruses belong to a single species but form four distinct variants that are host species specific with strong geographic clustering. The four papillomaviruses represent three different types, of which two are new types from Adélie penguins sampled on Yalour Island in the West Antarctic Peninsula. Co-occurrence of two polyomavirus variants was identified in two individual gentoo penguins. Both of these variants appear to be circulating in gentoo penguins at Cierva Cove, Hope Bay in Trinity Peninsula along the Antarctic Peninsula, and at Hannah Point on Livingstone Island and Stranger Point on King George Island in the South Shetland Islands. Here, we expand the known diversity, host and geographical ranges of penguin polyomaviruses and, together with a previously identified polyomavirus on Ross Island from 2012 to 2013, show that they form five distinct lineages. The four papillomaviruses identified in this study, together with two previously identified from Ross Island in 2012 and 2013 breeding seasons, show substantial diversity reflecting four papillomavirus types across three viral species and two distinct genera. Continued surveillance and viral genomic analysis across a larger geographical framework will help understand the evolution, transmission and incidence rates of these viruses.

Microbial Genomics↗

USGS2025

Factors influencing daily nest survival rates of Aleutian terns in the Kodiak Archipelago, Alaska

The Aleutian tern ( Onychoprion aleuticus ) is a species of high conservation concern in Alaska, USA, owing to large declines at known breeding locations since the 1960s. The small population size and ephemeral behavior of this species have limited the collection of basic biological information and hindered the identification of potential drivers of this decline. Significant unknowns include the factors, and their relative importance, influencing nest survival. To investigate these questions, we estimated daily nest survival (DNS) for 148 nests from 5 breeding colonies during 2017 to 2020 in the Kodiak Archipelago, Alaska with 105 monitored using remote cameras. We used the nest survival model in program MARK to estimate DNS rates as a function of colony location, year, within-season time trends, vegetation cover and height, and 6 daily weather covariates. Our top model suggested that DNS rates increased with vegetation height, decreased as the season progressed, and included a significant interaction between year and colony. Average nest success (i.e., percent chance that a nest survived to hatch) over the 22-day incubation period varied by colony but was generally very low, averaging 1.2% (95% CI = 0–11%) in 2017–2018 to 14% (95% CI = 0.1–38%) in 2019–2020 across all colonies. The importance of year in the model suggests that a large-scale annual driver, like food availability, may have played an important role in this species' breeding success. A severe marine heatwave was present in the Gulf of Alaska during 2014–2016 and our results suggest that some effects of this anomalous event, such as reduced prey availability, lingered even after temperatures returned to normal. Additionally, the variation in DNS across colony locations indicated that local factors, such as predation pressure, may also drive significant variation in Aleutian tern productivity. These findings suggest that a combination of local factors and climate change may be important drivers of the >90% decline in Alaska's breeding population of Aleutian terns.

Alaska↗

USGS2025

Ungulate migrations of the Western United States, volume 5

Many ungulates migrate between distinct summer and winter ranges to take advantage of spatially and temporally variable food sources and avoid threats such as predators and deep snow. In 2018, the U.S. Department of the Interior established Secretarial Order 3362, which provided Federal support to expand existing research efforts to study ungulate populations and conserve their migrations by enhancing habitat quality for ungulates across the Western United States. In response to the order, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) created the Corridor Mapping Team, which is a collaboration among 11 State agencies, regional and Federal partners, and an expanding number of Tribal wildlife agencies. Together, the Corridor Mapping Team maps ungulate migrations throughout the Western United States and publishes them in the USGS “Ungulate Migrations of the Western United States” report series. This report details migrations and seasonal ranges from 36 additional herds and includes 2 herd updates detailed in previous reports. The Corridor Mapping Team has mapped the migrations and seasonal ranges of 218 unique herds for the report series, including this report. The report series serves as a map-based inventory of the ungulate migrations across the Western United States for biologists, managers, policymakers, and conservation practitioners. Building on the previous report volumes in the series, volume 5 additionally describes some of the local and national initiatives that are incorporating the products, tools, and information from this growing USGS report series.

Navajo Nation↗

USGS2024

Living on the edge: Identifying demographic bottlenecks in an isolated sage-grouse population

The greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus : hereafter sage-grouse) population in Modoc County California is geographically isolated and contains a single lek (from 56 leks in the 1940s), despite significant efforts to increase the population through translocations and habitat improvement. Repeated wildfire within the landscape has led to an increase in invasive annual grasses and a decrease in sagebrush ( Artemisia sp.) cover in important nesting and brood-rearing habitat. We estimated survival for adult females, nests, and chicks and assessed biotic characteristics that may influence these survival estimates to identify factors that may be limiting population growth. We monitored 37 female sage-grouse marked with GPS PTTS, 39 nests, and 8 broods for 3 years (2019–2021). We measured vegetation characteristics for nests at the microsite and landscape scale to evaluate effects on daily nest survival (DNS). We used survival rates from all life stages to parameterize matrix models and estimate population growth rate. Mean nest success over 3 years was 29% (95% CI: 17.1–44.8) across a 29-day incubation period and DNS declined as the proportion of both medusahead Taeniatherum caput-medusae and Japanese brome Bromus japonicus around the nest increased. Across all three years, mean chick survival across a 54-day period was 44% (95% CI: 0.9–72.3) and mean annual survival for adult females was 29% (95% CI: 17.8–43.7). Our estimated vital rates were 45–55% lower than distribution-wide estimates and the projected population growth rate was strongly declining (0.411, 95% CI: 0.30–0.52). Our results suggested recent cover changes associated with wildfire on the study area may have had a detrimental effect on this population across all life stages, and if attention is not given to preventing the transition from sagebrush communities into invasive grasslands, this population and others in degraded landscapes may not persist.

California↗

USGS2024

Evaluating satellite-transmitter backpack-harness effects on greater sage-grouse survival and device retention in the Great Basin

Wildlife tracking studies have become ubiquitous in ecology and now provide previously unobtainable data regarding individual movement, vital rates, and population demographics. However, tracking devices can potentially reduce survival of study subjects, generating biases in the vital rates they seek to measure. Previous studies have found that greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) fitted with Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking devices may experience reduced survival, relative to those tracked with traditional radio transmitters, and have documented skin abrasions and lacerations associated with typical backpack-style GPS harnesses. We implemented an experimental study comparing survival and harness retention between 2 different backpack-style GPS transmitter harnesses. We captured female sage-grouse at 3 study sites in the northwest Great Basin of Oregon, Nevada, and California during 2019–2021. We fit each individual, following previously published recommendations, with either a standard backpack harness or a modified harness hypothesized to reduce skin abrasion and laceration. We used known-fate models in Program MARK to model variation in survival and harness retention separately as a function of harness type, year, age, a linear effect of time, and the ratio of the device to individual body mass. Neither survival nor retention varied systematically by harness type, however retention decreased as a function of body mass ratio. We echo previous recommendations for standardized harness attachment protocols and studies designed to isolate and test potential mechanisms by which tracking devices and attachment methods might affect survival and well-being of sage-grouse and other tracked species.

California Nevada, Oregon↗

USGS2024

Ungulate migrations of the Western United States, volume 4

Broadly distributed across the Western United States, ungulates (hooved mammals) play an important role in ecosystem function by affecting vegetation communities and forming the prey base for large carnivores. Additionally, ungulates provide economic benefits to regional communities through tourism and hunting and hold cultural significance for many Tribal communities. Many ungulates migrate seasonally between distinct summer and winter ranges to take advantage of spatially and temporally variable food sources and avoid threats such as predators and deep snow. Increasingly, these migrations are threatened by the growing human footprint and associated subdivisions, energy development, and increased traffic volume. Efforts to study ungulate populations and conserve their migrations received support in recent years from the U.S. Department of the Interior Secretarial Order No. 3362, which provided Federal support for enhancing habitat quality for ungulates across the Western States. In response to Secretarial Order No. 3362, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) established the Corridor Mapping Team, a collaboration among USGS and participating State and Federal wildlife management agencies and numerous Tribal Nations. Together, the Corridor Mapping Team maps ungulate migrations throughout the Western United States in the USGS “Ungulate Migrations of the Western United States” report series. This report (volume 4) details migrations and seasonal ranges from 31 new herds throughout nine Western States. Additionally, this report includes updates to two herds published in previous reports. Including this report, the report series has provided the mapped migrations and seasonal ranges of 182 unique herds and has provided a map-based inventory of the documented ungulate migrations across the Western United States for biologists, managers, policy makers, and conservation practitioners. This report also discusses how the mapping efforts associated with the Corridor Mapping Team can be used to guide management and policy regarding renewable energy development and ungulate disease, specifically chronic wasting disease, in the Western United States.

Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada,↗

USGS2024

Sex-specific recruitment rates contribute to male-biased sex ratio in Adélie penguins

Sex-related differences in vital rates that drive population change reflect the basic life history of a species. However, for visually monomorphic bird species, determining the effect of sex on demographics can be a challenge. In this study, we investigated the effect of sex on apparent survival, recruitment, and breeding propensity in the Adélie penguin ( Pygoscelis adeliae ), a monochromatic, slightly size dimorphic species with known age, known sex, and known breeding history data collected during 1996–2019 ( n = 2127 birds) from three breeding colonies on Ross Island, Antarctica. Using a multistate capture–mark–recapture maximum-likelihood model, we estimated apparent survival (

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2024

Going with the floe: Sea-ice movement affects distance and destination during Adélie penguin winter movements

Seasonal migration, driven by shifts in annual climate cycles and resources, is a key part of the life history and ecology of species across taxonomic groups. By influencing the amount of energy needed to move, external forces such as wind and ocean currents are often key drivers of migratory pathways exposing individuals to varying resources, environmental conditions, and competition pressures impacting individual fitness and population dynamics. Although wildlife movements in connection with wind and ocean currents are relatively well understood, movements within sea-ice fields have been much less studied, despite sea ice being an integral part of polar ecology. Adélie penguins ( Pygoscelis adeliae ) in the southern Ross Sea, Antarctica, currently exist at the southernmost edge of their range and undergo the longest (~12,000 km) winter migration known for the species. Within and north of the Ross Sea, the Ross Gyre drives ocean circulation and the large-scale movement of sea ice. We used remotely sensed sea-ice movement data together with geolocation-based penguin movement data to test the hypothesis that penguins use gyre-driven sea-ice movement to aid their migration. We found that penguins traveled greater distances when their movement vectors were aligned with those of sea ice (i.e., ice support) and the amount of ice support received depended on which route a penguin took. We also found that birds that took an eastern route traveled significantly further north in two of the 3 years we examined, coinciding with higher velocities of sea ice in those years. We compare our findings to patterns observed in migrating species that utilize air or water currents for their travel and with other studies showing the importance of ocean/sea-ice circulation patterns to wildlife movement and life history patterns within the Ross Sea. Changes in sea ice may have consequences not only for energy expenditure but, by altering migration and movement pathways, to the ecological interactions that exist in this region.

Ecology↗

USGS2023

Sea ice concentration decline in an important Adélie penguin molt area

Unlike in many polar regions, the spatial extent and duration of the sea ice season have increased in the Ross Sea sector of the Southern Ocean during the satellite era. Simultaneously, populations of Adélie penguins, a sea ice obligate, have been stable or increasing in the region. Relationships between Adélie penguin population growth and sea ice concentration are complex, with sea ice driving different, sometimes contrasting, demographic patterns. Adélie penguins undergo a complete molt annually, replacing all their feathers while fasting shortly after the breeding season. Unlike most penguin species, a majority of Adélies are thought to molt on sea ice, away from the breeding colonies, which makes this period particularly difficult to study. Here, we evaluate the hypothesis that persistent areas of high sea ice concentration provide important molting habitat for Adélie penguins. We analyzed data from geolocating dive recorders deployed year-round on 195 adult penguins at two colonies in the Ross Sea from 2017-2019. We identified molt by detecting extended gaps in post-breeding diving activity and used associated locations to define two key molting areas. Remotely sensed data indicated that sea ice concentration during molt was anomalously low during the study and has declined in the primary molt area since 1980. Further, annual return rates of penguins to breeding colonies were positively correlated with sea ice concentration in the molt areas over 20 years. Together these results suggest that sea ice conditions during Adélie penguin molt may represent a previously underappreciated annual bottleneck for adult survival.

PNAS↗

USGS2023

Estimating fat content in barred owls (Strix varia) with predictive models developed from direct measures of proximate body composition

Body condition indices and related metrics can help assess habitat quality and other ecological processes, and ideally, these metrics are based on measures of lipids directly extracted from the species of interest. In recent decades, barred owls ( Strix varia ) have become a species of conservation concern as they invaded older forests of the US Pacific Northwest, and caused population declines of the closely related and federally threatened northern spotted owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ). A simple and effective measure of barred owl body condition could help to understand how habitat quality varies within their new range, which in turn can inform their management and other aspects of their ecology. Using 77 barred owl carcasses collected during experimental removals in Washington and Oregon, USA, we measured the amount of lipid in each specimen with proximate body composition analysis. We then fit and compared (with adjusted R 2 values) alternative linear regression models to estimate the percent lipids in dry mass of the owls based on morphometric body condition indices, a qualitative fat score of subcutaneous breast fat, sex and the time of year females were collected (relative to egg production). Adjusted R 2 values for all models ranged from 0.49 to 0.87, with the best model including mass divided by foot-pad length, fat score, sex and the time of year a female was collected. Most models generated comparable estimates of percent lipids at a population level and we provided correction factors to apply these models when used with live barred owls, allowing for site-specific comparisons of body condition among individuals inhabiting a diversity of environmental conditions.

Conservation Physiology↗