Geology topics

Karen M. Thorne

Publications and source records attributed to Karen M. Thorne.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2024

Significant challenges to the sustainability of the California coast considering climate change

Climate change is an existential threat to the environmental and socioeconomic sustainability of the coastal zone and impacts will be complex and widespread. Evidence from California and across the United States shows that climate change is impacting coastal communities and challenging managers with a plethora of stressors already present. Widespread action could be taken that would sustain California’s coastal ecosystems and communities. In this perspective, we highlight the main threat to coastal sustainability: the compound effects of episodic events amplified with ongoing climate change, which will present unprecedented challenges to the state. We present two key challenges for California’s sustainability in the coastal zone: 1) accelerating sea-level rise combined with storm impacts, and 2) continued warming of the oceans and marine heatwaves. Cascading effects from these types of compounding events will occur within the context of an already stressed system that has experienced extensive alterations due to intensive development, resource extraction and harvesting, spatial containment, and other human use pressures. There are critical components that could be used to address these immediate concerns, including comanagement strategies that include diverse groups and organizations, strategic planning integrated across large areas, rapid implementation of solutions, and a cohesive and policy relevant research agenda for the California coast. Much of this has been started in the state, but the scale could be increased, and timelines accelerated. The ideas and information presented here are intended to help expand discussions to sharpen the focus on how to encourage sustainability of California’s iconic coastal region.

California↗

USGS2024

Rising seas could cross thresholds for initiating coastal wetland drowning within decades across much of the United States

Accelerated sea-level rise is an existential threat to coastal wetlands, but the timing and extent of wetland drowning are debated. Recent data syntheses have clarified future relative sea-level rise exposure and sensitivity thresholds for drowning. Here, we integrate these advances to estimate when and where rising sea levels could cross thresholds for initiating wetland drowning across the conterminous United States. Our results show that there is much spatial variation in relative sea-level rise rates, which impacts the potential timing and extent of wetlands crossing thresholds. High rates of relative sea-level rise along wetland-rich parts of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts highlight areas where wetlands are already drowning or could begin to drown within decades, including large wetland landscapes within the Mississippi River delta, Greater Everglades, Chesapeake Bay, Texas, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Collectively, our results underscore the need to prepare for transformative coastal change.

Communications Earth & Environment↗

USGS2024

A comparison of eDNA sampling methods in an estuarine environment on presence of longfin smelt (Spirinchus thaleichthys) and fish community composition

The loss of tidal wetlands in the San Francisco Bay estuary have led to declines in native fish presence. Restoration of tidal wetlands in this area has intensified, with a primary goal of increasing the number of native fishes. We compared the presence of longfin smelt in naturally accreted and beneficial dredge reuse wetlands as a measure of successful restoration. We used environmental DNA (eDNA) analyses as our metric for fish presence and fish community composition, employing two different water sampling methods for comparison (standard and high-volume). Longfin smelt were present in multiple sites, but at numbers too low for accurate comparisons across sites. Community composition varied based on the water sampling method, but the presence/absence of longfin smelt was consistent across sampling methods. As this represents a pilot study, further refinement of methodology is necessary, but the use of high-volume water sampling methods is promising.

California↗

USGS2024

Application of lidar to assess the habitat selection of an endangered small mammal in an estuarine wetland environment

Light detection and ranging (lidar) has emerged as a valuable tool for examining the fine-scale characteristics of vegetation. However, lidar is rarely used to examine coastal wetland vegetation or the habitat selection of small mammals. Extensive anthropogenic modification has threatened the endemic species in the estuarine wetlands of the California coast, such as the endangered salt marsh harvest mouse ( Reithrodontomys raviventris ; SMHM). A better understanding of SMHM habitat selection could help managers better protect this species. We assessed the ability of airborne topographic lidar imagery in measuring the vegetation structure of SMHM habitats in a coastal wetland with a narrow range of vegetation heights. We also aimed to better understand the role of vegetation structure in habitat selection at different spatial scales. Habitat selection was modeled from data compiled from 15 small mammal trapping grids collected in the highly urbanized San Francisco Estuary in California, USA. Analyses were conducted at three spatial scales: microhabitat (25 m 2 ), mesohabitat (2025 m 2 ), and macrohabitat (~10,000 m 2 ). A suite of structural covariates was derived from raw lidar data to examine vegetation complexity. We found that adding structural covariates to conventional habitat selection variables significantly improved our models. At the microhabitat scale in managed wetlands, SMHM preferred areas with denser and shorter vegetation and selected for proximity to levees and taller vegetation in tidal wetlands. At the mesohabitat scale, SMHM were associated with a lower percentage of bare ground and with pickleweed ( Salicornia pacifica ) presence. All covariates were insignificant at the macrohabitat scale. Our results suggest that SMHM preferentially selected microhabitats with access to tidal refugia and mesohabitats with consistent food sources. Our findings showed that lidar can contribute to improving our understanding of habitat selection of wildlife in coastal wetlands and help to guide future conservation of an endangered species.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2024

Bay Miwok evening primrose: A new subspecies of Oenothera deltoides (Onagraceae) endemic to California

California contains exceptional biodiversity in geography and plant life, including numerous endemic species, some of which are cryptic. The Oenothera deltoides Torr. & Frém. species complex represents a prime example of cryptic diversity. Here, we recognize a new subspecies of Oenothera deltoides , O. deltoides subsp. julpunensis S.F.Jones, subsp. nov., that is a local endemic of windblown sand deposits on the eastern Antioch Dunes sand sheet in the San Francisco Bay-Delta region of California, USA. With the goal of providing clarity to managers of listed species and better understanding of California's diverse flora, we addressed the puzzle of O. deltoides in the region by combining range-wide field surveys with modern genomic tools. We describe the proposed subspecies, its ecology and distribution, and discuss its conservation. As a somewhat cryptic local endemic with small population size and disappearing habitat, the proposed subspecies would benefit from conservation and management to persist as a member of the California flora.

California↗

USGS2024

Seasonal and spatial patterns in sediment transport in an erosional marsh system

Salt marshes provide expansive ecosystem services to coastal regions, including serving as bird and fish habitat, providing flood protection, and sequestering carbon and toxins (Barbier et al. 2011). While marshes are naturally dynamic, they are undergoing net loss in the 21st century largely due to lateral erosion (Camp- bell et al. 2022). In regions where marsh migration is constrained by built infrastructure, or where sediment resources may be insufficient for vertical or lateral expansion, approaches to prevent net marsh loss against lateral erosion are limited. To better understand and strategize around these conditions, detailed studies of marsh-edge loss mechanisms and their connections to sediment transport dynamics are necessary (Smith et al. 2021).

California↗

USGS2023

Understanding marsh elevation and accretion processes and vulnerability to rising sea levels across climatic and geomorphic gradients in California, USA

Tidal marshes build elevations by below- and aboveground organic and mineral soil processes. Marsh elevation and accretion data can be used to determine if marshes are keeping pace with sea-level rise. Using a network of 54 deep rod surface elevation tables with paired feldspar marker horizon plots, we tracked elevation and accretion trends across 16 marshes in California, USA. All sites had overall positive gains across years that included severe drought conditions and extreme rain events. Marsh elevation relative to tidal datum ( z *) was the key predictor for elevation and accretion rates, with higher change rates at lower z * sites. Marsh sites are clustered into three regional groups (Northern California, San Francisco Bay area, and Southern California), primarily defined by maximum temperature and annual rainfall differences. Elevation, accretion, and shallow subsidence rates were not significantly different between clusters, but their explanatory variables did vary. High-temperature days were a key predictor for elevation, accretion, and shallow subsidence rates in the state-wide analysis and San Francisco Bay regional analysis. The largest elevation gains were observed in the San Francisco Bay-Delta and some of the smallest in Humboldt Bay, with Morro Bay having the lowest accretion rate overall. Central and Southern California marshes were keeping pace or out-pacing sea-level rise, while none of the Humboldt Bay marshes were keeping pace. Marsh surface elevation data can inform management intervention and be a leading indicator for sea-level rise vulnerability. Long-term monitoring across geomorphic settings can help inform management and anticipate marsh change.

California↗

USGS2023

Stress gradients structure spatial variability in coastal tidal marsh plant composition and diversity in a major Pacific coast estuary

Understanding the drivers of variability in plant diversity from local to landscape spatial scales is a challenge in ecological systems. Environmental gradients exist at several spatial scales and can be nested hierarchically, influencing patterns of plant diversity in complex ways. As plant community dynamics influence ecosystem function, understanding the drivers of plant community variability across space is paramount for predicting potential shifts in ecosystem function from global change. Determining the scales at which stress gradients influence vegetation composition is crucial to inform management and restoration of tidal marshes for specific functions. Here, we analyzed vegetation community composition in 51 tidal marshes from the San Francisco Bay Estuary, California, USA. We used model-based compositional analysis and rank abundance curves to quantify environmental (elevation/tidal frame position, distance to channel, and channel salinity) and species trait (species form, wetland indicator status, and native status) influences on plant community variability at the marsh site and estuary scales. While environmental impacts on plant diversity varied by species and their relationships to each other, overall impacts increased in strength from marsh to estuary scales. Relative species abundance was important in structuring these tidal marsh communities even with the limited species pools dominated by a few species. Rank abundance curves revealed different community structures by region with higher species evenness at plots higher in the tidal frame and adjacent to freshwater channels. By identifying interactions (species–species, species–environment, and environment–trait) at multiple scales (local, landscape), we begin to understand how variability measurements could be interpreted for conservation and land management decisions.

California↗

USGS2023

Observing coastal wetland transitions using national land cover products

Over the coming century, climate change and sea-level rise are predicted to cause widespread change to coastal wetlands. Estuarine vegetated wetlands can adapt to sea-level rise through both vertical development (i.e., biophysical feedbacks and sedimentation) and upslope/horizontal migration. Quantifying changes to estuarine vegetated wetlands over time can help to inform current and future decisions regarding land management and resource stewardship. In this study, we show how coastal land cover maps readily available in the US can be used to assess and understand estuarine vegetated wetland changes. This assessment involves two steps: (1) identifying the net gain/loss of estuarine vegetated wetlands and (2) determining which land cover types contribute to the net gain/loss. From this information, we developed estuarine vegetated wetland change scenarios that evaluate whether estuarine vegetated wetland gain kept up with loss and whether the contribution was from: (1) estuarine vegetated wetland migration or tidal restoration; (2) land building (i.e., development); or (3) both. We assessed changes from 1996 to 2016 for: (1) the conterminous US; (2) each major US coastline; and (3) focal estuaries with the most change per coast. We found that the change scenario (1, 2, or 3) varied across coastlines. Moving forward, national coastal land cover programs can be informed by utilizing methodologies that leverage contemporary information for delineating the estuarine zone from upslope/adjacent wetlands. We highlight approaches that could be used to address this challenge and provide complementary information related to wetland condition changes.

Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environm↗

USGS2023

Increasing salt marsh elevation using sediment augmentation: Critical insights from surface sediments and sediment cores

Sea-level rise is particularly concerning for tidal wetlands that reside within an area with steep topography or are constrained by human development and alteration of sedimentation. Sediment augmentation to increase wetland elevations has been considered as a potential strategy for such areas to prevent wetland loss over the coming decades. However, there is little information on the best approaches and whether adaptive management actions can mimic natural processes to build sea-level rise resilience. In addition, the lack of information on long-term marsh characteristics, processes, and variability can hamper development of effective augmentation strategies. Here, we assess a case study in a southern California marsh to determine the nature of the pre-existing sediments and variability of the site in relation to sediments applied during an augmentation experiment. Although sediment cores revealed natural variations in the grain size and organic content of sediments deposited at the site over the past 1500 years, the applied sediments were markedly coarser in grain size than prehistoric sediments at the site (100% maximum sand versus 76% maximum sand). The rate of the experimental sediment application (25.1 ± 1.09 cm in ~2 months) was also much more rapid than natural accretion rates measured for the site historically. In contrast, post-augmentation sediment accretion rates on the augmentation site have been markedly slower than pre-augmentation rates or current rates on a nearby control site. The mismatch between the characteristics of the applied sediment and thickness of application and the historic conditions are likely strong contributors to the slow initial recovery of vegetation. Sediment augmentation has been shown to be a useful strategy in some marshes, but this case study illustrates that vegetation recovery may be slow if applied sediments are not similar or at a thickness similar to historic conditions. However, testing adaptation strategies to build wetland elevations is important given the long-term risk of habitat loss with sea-level rise. Lessons learned in the case study could be applied elsewhere.

California↗

USGS2023

Foundations of modeling resilience of tidal saline wetlands to sea-level rise along the U.S. Pacific Coast

Context Tidal saline wetlands (TSWs) are highly threatened from climate-change effects of sea-level rise. Studies of TSWs along the East Coast U.S. and elsewhere suggest significant likely losses over coming decades but needed are analytic tools gauged to Pacific Coast U.S. wetlands. Objectives We predict the impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) on the elevation capital (vertical) and migration potential (lateral) resilience of TSWs along the Pacific Coast U.S. over the period 2020 to 2150 under a 1.5-m SLR scenario, and identified TSWs at risk of most rapid loss of resilience. Here, we define vertical resilience as the amount of elevation capital and lateral resilience as the amount of TSW displacement area relative to existing area. Methods We used Bayesian network (BN) modeling to predict changes in resilience of TSWs as probabilities which can be useful in risk analysis and risk management. We developed the model using a database sample of 26 TSWs with 147 sediment core samples, among 16 estuary drainage areas along coastal California, Oregon, and Washington. Results We found that all TSW sites would lose at least 50% of their elevation capital resilience by 2060 to just before 2100, and 100% by 2070 to 2130, depending on the site. Under a 1.5-m sea-level rise scenario, nearly all sites in California will lose most or all of their lateral migration resilience. Resilience losses generally accelerated over time. In the BN model, elevation capital resilience is most sensitive to elevation capital at time t, mean tide level at time t, and change in sea level from time 0 to time t. Conclusions All TSW sites were projected with declines in resilience. Our model can further aid decision-making such as prioritizing sites for potential management adaptation strategies. We also identified variables most influencing resilience predictions and thus those potentially prioritized for monitoring or development of strategies to prevent loss regionally.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2023

Spatially explicit models of seed availability improve predictions of conifer regeneration following the 2018 Carr Fire in northern California

For many conifer species in dry conifer forests of North America, seeds must be present for postfire regeneration to occur, suggesting that seed dispersal from surviving trees plays a critical role in postfire forest recovery. However, the application of tree fecundity and spatial arrangement to postfire conifer recovery predictions have only recently become more common, and is often included at relatively coarse scales (i.e., 30 meters). In this study, we mapped surviving trees using lidar and created a spatially explicit estimate of seed density (seed shadows) with 10 m, 50 m, and 100 m median dispersal distances. We estimated the number of seeds produced by each tree using allometric relationships between tree size and fecundity. Along with the seed shadows, we used a suite of topographic variables as inputs to negative binomial hurdle models to predict conifer seedling abundance in 131 plots following the 2018 Carr Fire in northern California, USA. We compared models using each of the seed shadows to each other as well as to a model using the distance to the nearest surviving tree, which served as a baseline. All model formulations indicated that estimated seed availability was positively associated with conifer regeneration. Despite the importance of seed availability plays in regeneration and the substantial differences in seed availability represented by the different seed shadows in our analysis, we found surprisingly little difference in model performance regardless of which seed shadow was used. However, the models employing seed shadows outperformed the models with distance to the nearest live tree. Although we have demonstrated a modest improvement in predicting postfire conifer regeneration, the uncertainty in our results highlights the importance of tree detection and classification in future studies of this kind. Future studies may find it useful to consider other factors such as predation, site suitability, and seed mortality as potential drivers of discrepancies between total and realized dispersal kernels.

California↗

USGS2023

Future marsh evolution due to tidal changes induced by human adaptation to sea level rise

With sea level rise threatening coastal development, decision-makers are beginning to act by modifying shorelines. Previous research has shown that hardening or softening shorelines may change the tidal range under future sea level rise. Tidal range can also be changed by natural factors. Coastal marshes, which humans increasingly depend on for shoreline protection, are ecologically sensitive to tidal range. Therefore, it is critical to examine how changes in tidal range could influence marsh processes. A marsh accretion model was used to investigate the ecological response of a San Francisco Bay, California, USA marsh to multiple tidal range scenarios and sea level rise from 2010 to 2100. The scenarios include a baseline scenario with no shoreline modifications in the estuary, a shoreline hardening scenario that amplifies the tidal range, and 14 tidal range scenarios as a sensitivity analysis that span tidal amplification and reduction of the baseline scenario. The modeling results expose key tradeoffs to consider when planning for sea level rise. Compared to the baseline, the hardening scenario shows minor differences. However, further tidal amplification prolongs marsh survival but decreases Sarcocornia pacifica cover, an important species for certain threatened wildlife and an effective attenuator of wave energy. Conversely, tidal reduction precipitates marsh drowning but shows gains in Sarcocornia pacifica cover. These mixed impacts of tidal amplification and reduction shown by the model indicate potential tradeoffs in relation to marsh survival, habitat characteristics, and shoreline protection. This study suggests the need for a cross-sectoral, regional approach to sea level rise adaptation.

California↗

USGS2023

Phenotypic trait differences between Iris pseudacorus in native and introduced ranges support greater capacity of invasive populations to withstand sea level rise

Aim Tidal wetlands are greatly impacted by climate change, and by the invasion of alien plant species that are being exposed to salinity changes and longer inundation periods resulting from sea level rise. To explore the capacity for the invasion of Iris pseudacorus to persist with sea level rise, we initiated an intercontinental study along estuarine gradients in the invaded North American range and the native European range. Location San Francisco Bay-Delta Estuary; California, USA and Guadalquivir River Estuary; Andalusia, Spain. Methods We compared 15 morphological, biochemical, and reproductive plant traits within populations in both ranges to determine if specific functional traits can predict invasion success and if environmental factors explain observed phenotypic differences. Results Alien I. pseudacorus plants in the introduced range had more robust growth than plants in the native range. The vigour of the alien plants was reflected by expression of higher leaf water content, fewer senescent leaves per leaf fan, and more carbohydrate storage reserves in rhizomes than plants in the native range. Moreover, alien plants tended to show higher specific leaf area and seed production than native plants. I. pseudacorus plants in the introduced range were less affected by increasing salinity and were exposed to deeper inundation water along the estuarine gradient than those in the native range. Main Conclusions Functional trait differences suggest mature populations of I. pseudacorus in the introduced range have greater adapted capacity to adjust to environmental stresses induced by rising sea level than those in the native range. Knowledge of these trait responses can be applied to improve risk assessments in invaded estuaries and to achieve climate-adapted conservation goals for conservation of the species in its native range.

Andalusia, California↗

USGS2023

Mangrove habitat persistence and carbon vulnerability associated with increased nutrient loading and sea-level rise at Ding Darling National Wildlife Refuge (Sanibel Island, Florida, USA)

J.N. “Ding” Darling National Wildlife Refuge (DDNWR) is located on Sanibel Island along the southwestern coast of Florida, USA. Sanibel Island is heavily developed, but DDNWR provides protection for a large mangrove area that supports biodiversity and recreational opportunity. However, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) eutrophication attributed to agriculture discharge along the Caloosahatchee River has affected the area’s aquatic habitat with algal blooms and may be causing untimely degradation of Sanibel’s mangrove forests. We launched a series of studies to understand how additional nutrient loading to the levels expected in the future might affect DDNWR’s mangrove resource. We experimentally fertilized selected mangrove forest areas with N fertilizer (+N; NH4) and P fertilizer (+P; P 2 O 5 ) for three years, and monitored soil surface elevation change, soil and pneumatophore CO 2 fluxes from respiration, mangrove tree sap flow from two species ( Avicennia germinans , Rhizophora mangle ), and individual tree and stand water use, from which we developed carbon (C) budgets for +N and +P vs. control simulations as applied to DDNWR’s 1112 ha mangrove area. Many of the measured response variables provided hints of subtle changes in response to +P rather than +N, which were compounded when scaled. From this, we found that additional P loading is expected to stimulate CO 2 uptake via net ecosystem exchange of C, likely pressing the system beyond metabolic capacity and leading to a projected 41% increase in lateral C export to the estuary. Additional lateral C export is concomitant to a reduction in vertical soil surface elevation with +P. Furthermore, an inability of DDNWR’s mangroves to bury additional P and a release of P-bound ions to lateral export may exacerbate estuarine eutrophication. We also modelled the effect of sea-level rise influences on DDNWR’s mangroves through 2100 using a soil cohort model (WARMER-Mangroves) and found that the mangroves may be resilient to current rates of sea-level rise into the future but may also be susceptible to moderate accelerations. Greater eutrophication could create additional vulnerabilities to mangrove submergence, especially to basin mangroves where P concentrations are high and already reducing soil surface elevations in some mangroves. Our results suggest that amelioration of current P concentrations and avoidance of additional P loading to Sanibel Island’s mangroves are management options to consider.

Florida↗

USGS2022

A summary of water-quality and salt marsh monitoring, Humboldt Bay, California

This report summarizes data-collection activities associated with the U.S. Geological Survey Humboldt Bay Water-Quality and Salt Marsh Monitoring Project. This work was undertaken to gain a comprehensive understanding of water-quality conditions, salt marsh accretion processes, marsh-edge erosion, and soil-carbon storage in Humboldt Bay, California. Multiparameter sondes recorded water temperature, specific conductance, and turbidity at a 15-minute timestep at two U.S. Geological Survey water-quality stations: (1) Mad River Slough near Arcata, California (U.S. Geological Survey station 405219124085601) and (2) Hookton Slough near Loleta, California (U.S. Geological Survey station 404038124131801). At each station, discrete water samples were collected to develop surrogate regression models that were used to compute a continuous time series of suspended-sediment concentration from continuously measured turbidity. Data loggers recorded water depth at a 6-minute timestep in the primary tidal channels (Mad River Slough and Hookton Slough) in two adjacent marshes (Mad River marsh and Hookton marsh). The marsh monitoring network included five study marshes. Three marshes (Mad River, Manila, and Jacoby) are in the northern embayment of Humboldt Bay and two marshes (White and Hookton) are in the southern embayment. Surface deposition and elevation change were measured using deep rod surface elevation tables and feldspar marker horizons. Sediment characteristics and soil-carbon storage were measured using a total of 10 shallow cores, distributed across 5 study marshes, collected using an Eijkelkamp peat sampler. Rates of marsh edge erosion (2010–19) were quantified in four marshes (Mad River, Manila, Jacoby, and White) by estimating changes in the areal extent of the vegetated marsh plain using repeat aerial imagery and light detection and ranging (LiDAR)-derived elevation data. During the monitoring period (2016–19), the mean suspended-sediment concentration computed for Hookton Slough (50±20 milligrams per liter [mg/L]) was higher than Mad River Slough (18±7 mg/L). Uncertainty in mean suspended-sediment concentration values is reported using a 90-percent confidence interval. Across the five study marshes, elevation change (+1.8±0.6 millimeters per year [mm/yr]) and surface deposition (+2.5±0.5 mm/yr) were lower than published values of local sea-level rise (4.9±0.8 mm/yr), and mean carbon density was 0.029±0.005 grams of carbon per cubic centimeter. From 2010 to 2019, marsh edge erosion and soil carbon loss were greatest in low-elevation marshes with the marsh edge characterized by a gentle transition from mudflat to vegetated marsh (herein, ramped edge morphology) and larger wind-wave exposure. Jacoby Creek marsh experienced the greatest edge erosion. In total, marsh edge erosion was responsible for 62.3 metric tons of estuarine soil carbon storage loss across four study marshes. Salt marshes are an important component of coastal carbon, which is frequently referred to as “blue carbon.” The monitoring data presented in this report provide fundamental information needed to manage blue carbon stocks, assess marsh vulnerability, inform sea-level rise adaptation planning, and build coastal resiliency to climate change.

California↗

USGS2022

Multi-decadal simulation of marsh topography evolution under sea level rise and episodic sediment loads

Coastal marsh within Mediterranean climate zones is exposed to episodic watershed runoff and sediment loads that occur during storm events. Simulating future marsh accretion under sea level rise calls for attention to: (a) physical processes acting over the time scale of storm events and (b) biophysical processes acting over time scales longer than storm events. Using the upper Newport Bay in Southern California as a case study, we examine the influence of event-scale processes on simulated change in marsh topography by comparing: (a) a biophysical model that integrates with an annual time step and neglects event-scale processes (BP-Annual), (b) a physical model that resolves event-scale processes but neglects biophysical interactions (P-Event), and (c) a biophysical model that resolves event-scale physical processes and biophysical processes at annual and longer time scales (BP-Event). A calibrated BP-Event model shows that large (>20-year return period) episodic storm events are major drivers of marsh accretion, depositing up to 30 cm of sediment in one event. Greater deposition is predicted near fluvial sources and tidal channels and less on marshes further from fluvial sources and tidal channels. In contrast, the BP-Annual model poorly resolves spatial structure in marsh accretion as a consequence of neglecting event-scale processes. Furthermore, the P-Event model significantly overestimates marsh accretion as a consequence of neglecting marsh surface compaction driven by annual scale biophysical processes. Differences between BP-Event and BP-Annual models translate up to 20 cm per century in marsh surface elevation.

California↗

USGS2022

Assessing small-mammal trapping design using spatially explicit capture recapture (SECR) modeling on long-term monitoring data

Few studies have evaluated the optimal sampling design for tracking small mammal population trends, especially for rare or difficult to detect species. Spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) models present an advancement over non-spatial models by accounting for individual movement when estimating density. The salt marsh harvest mouse (SMHM; Reithrodontomys raviventris ) is a federal and California state listed endangered species endemic to the San Francisco Bay-Delta estuary, California, USA; where a population in a subembayment has been continually monitored over an 18-year period using mark-recapture methods. We analyzed capture data within a SECR modeling framework that allowed us to account for differences in detection and movement between sexes. We compared the full dataset to subsampling scenarios to evaluate how the grid size (area) of the trap design, trap density (spacing), and number of consecutive trapping occasions (duration) influenced density estimates. To validate the subsampling methods, we ran Monte Carlo simulations based on the true parameter estimates for each specific year. We found that reducing the area of the trapping design by more than 36% resulted in the inability of the SECR model to replicate density estimates within the SE of the original density estimates. However, when trapping occasions were reduced from 4 to 3-nights the density estimates were indistinguishable from the full dataset. Furthermore, reducing trap density by 50% also resulted in density estimates comparable to the full dataset and was a substantially better model than reducing the trap area by 50%. Overall, our results indicated that moderate reductions in the number of trapping occasions or trap density could yield similar density estimates when using a SECR approach. This approach allows the optimization of field trapping efforts and designs by reducing field efforts while maintaining the same population estimate compared to the full dataset. Using a SECR approach may help other wildlife programs identify sampling efficiencies without sacrificing data integrity for long term monitoring of population densities.

California↗