Vegetation change over 140 years in a sagebrush landscape of the Rio Grande del Norte National Monument, New Mexico, USA
Questions Big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) ecosystems across the western United States have experienced many changes in ecosystem dynamics and vegetation composition over the last century due to livestock grazing, non-native species, and changing climate and fire regimes. We conducted the first systematic investigation of historical vegetation composition and vegetation change in a sagebrush landscape in the southwestern United States, asking whether sagebrush or grass dominated the landscape historically? Location The Rio Grande del Norte National Monument (RGDN), northern New Mexico, USA. Methods We combined General Land Office (GLO) surveys from 1881 with modern vegetation maps, field vegetation surveys, and sagebrush ages from growth ring analysis to test for changes in vegetation in the RGDN over the last 140 years. Results We found that big sagebrush presence across the study area increased significantly, from being present on 16% of section lines in 1881 to 79% in 2019, and only three section lines lost sagebrush presence during that period. Concurrently, the number of section lines with low grass index more than doubled since 1881, while moderate and high grass index declined. Grass declined equally in areas where sagebrush increased and areas with no change in sagebrush, suggesting that changes in both vegetation types were catalyzed by external factors, likely including overgrazing. The growth ring analysis of 93 sagebrush revealed a maximum age of 87 years and establishment in every decade since the 1930s, consistent with the GLO results. Conclusions The significant vegetation changes in the RGDN over the last century, including an increase of sagebrush, provide important context about the shifting mosaic of grasslands and shrublands relevant to current and future management and ecosystem dynamics.