Geology topics

K.M. Irvine

Publications and source records attributed to K.M. Irvine.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2011

Estimating temporal trend in the presence of spatial complexity: A Bayesian hierarchical model for a wetland plant population undergoing restoration

Monitoring programs that evaluate restoration and inform adaptive management are important for addressing environmental degradation. These efforts may be well served by spatially explicit hierarchical approaches to modeling because of unavoidable spatial structure inherited from past land use patterns and other factors. We developed Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate trends from annual density counts observed in a spatially structured wetland forb (Camassia quamash [camas]) population following the cessation of grazing and mowing on the study area, and in a separate reference population of camas. The restoration site was bisected by roads and drainage ditches, resulting in distinct subpopulations ("zones") with different land use histories. We modeled this spatial structure by fitting zone-specific intercepts and slopes. We allowed spatial covariance parameters in the model to vary by zone, as in stratified kriging, accommodating anisotropy and improving computation and biological interpretation. Trend estimates provided evidence of a positive effect of passive restoration, and the strength of evidence was influenced by the amount of spatial structure in the model. Allowing trends to vary among zones and accounting for topographic heterogeneity increased precision of trend estimates. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation shifted parameter coefficients in ways that varied among zones depending on strength of statistical shrinkage, autocorrelation and topographic heterogeneity-a phenomenon not widely described. Spatially explicit estimates of trend from hierarchical models will generally be more useful to land managers than pooled regional estimates and provide more realistic assessments of uncertainty. The ability to grapple with historical contingency is an appealing benefit of this approach.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2011

Monitoring direct and indirect climate effects on whitebark pine ecosystems at Crater Lake National park

Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) is the distinctive, often stunted, and picturesque tree line species in the American West. As a result of climate change, mountain pine beetles (Dendroctonus ponderosae) have moved up in elevation, adding to nonnative blister rust (Cronartium ribicola) disease as a major cause of mortality in whitebark pine. At Crater Lake National Park, Oregon, whitebark pine is declining at the rate of 1% per year. The Klamath Network, National Park Service, has elected to monitor whitebark pine and associated high-elevation vegetation. This program is designed to sample whitebark pine throughout the park to look for geographic patterns in its exposure to and mortality from disease and beetles. First-year monitoring has uncovered interesting patterns in blister rust distribution. Incidence of rust disease was higher on the west side of the park, where conditions are wetter and more humid than on the east side. However, correlating climate alone with rust disease is not straightforward. On the east side of the park, the odds of blister rust infection were much greater in plots having Ribes spp., shrubs that act as the alternate host for a portion of the rust's life cycle. However, on the park's west side, there was not a statistically significant increase in blister rust in plots with Ribes. This suggests that different species of Ribes associated with whitebark pine can increase pine exposure to blister rust disease. There is also convincing evidence of an association between total tree density and the incidence of blister rust. Warmer temperatures and possibly increased precipitation will affect both whitebark pine and Ribes physiology as well as tree density and mountain pine beetle numbers, all of which may interact with blister rust to cause future changes in tree line communities at Crater Lake. The Klamath Network monitoring program plans to document and study these ongoing changes.

Park Science↗