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Joshua J. Roering

Publications and source records attributed to Joshua J. Roering.

10 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2025

Cascading land surface hazards as a nexus in the Earth system

Earth’s surface is sculpted by numerous processes that move sediment, ranging from gradual and benign to abrupt and catastrophic. Although infrequent, high-magnitude sediment mobilization events can be hazardous to people and infrastructure, leaving topographic imprints on the landscape and remarkable narratives in the historical record. Hazardous events such as fires, storms, and earthquakes accelerate erosion and sediment transport, increasing landscape sensitivity to subsequent perturbations, thus forming a cascading hazard. Although the redistribution of sediment across Earth’s landscape can result in higher risks to vulnerable populations, cascading processes are commonly unaccounted for in hazard assessments. Cascading hazards can occur almost immediately after triggering events, such as coseismic landslides, or over months, years, or even decades after an initial perturbation, such as debris flows after wildfires or flooding in channels alluviated by volcanic debris. Sediment cascades span Earth’s surface, from mountaintops to river valleys, where erosion, deposition, and aggradation can lead to a myriad of hazardous processes, including decreased river conveyance capacity, which increases the likelihood of downstream flooding. An improved understanding of the magnitude, frequency, and persistence of cascading hazards is critical given the rapid changes in the frequency and severity of storms, fires, sea-level change, and cryospheric melting, as well as the expansion of high-population-density urban footprints in regions susceptible to solid Earth hazards. Understanding the full consequences and underlying physics of Earth’s cascading land surface hazards can help minimize future human and economic losses.

California↗
USGS2022

Inversions of landslide strength as a proxy for subsurface weathering

Distributions of landslide size are hypothesized to reflect hillslope strength, and consequently weathering patterns. However, the association of weathering and critical zone architecture with mechanical strength properties of parent rock and soil are poorly-constrained. Here we use three-dimensional stability to analyze 7330 landslides in western Oregon to infer combinations of strength - friction angles and cohesion - through analysis of both failed and reconstructed landslide terrain. Under a range of conditions, our results demonstrate that the failure envelope that relates shear strength and normal stress in landslide terrain is nonlinear owing to an exchange in strength with landslide thickness. Despite the variability in material strength at large scales, the observed gradient in proportional cohesive strength with landslide thickness may serve as a proxy for subsurface weathering. We posit that the observed relationships between strength and landslide thickness are associated with the coalescence of zones of low shear strength driven by fractures and weathering, which constitutes a first-order control on the mechanical behavior of underlying soil and rock mass.

Oregon↗
USGS2021

Extensive frost weathering across unglaciated North America during the Last Glacial Maximum

In unglaciated terrain, the imprint of past glacial periods is difficult to discern. The topographic signature of periglacial processes, such as solifluction lobes, may be erased or hidden by time and vegetation, and thus their import diminished. Belowground, periglacial weathering, particularly frost cracking, may have imparted a profound influence on weathering and erosion rates during past climate regimes. By combining a mechanical frost-weathering model with the full suite of Last Glacial Maximum climate simulations, we elucidate the meters-deep magnitude and continent-spanning expanse of frost weathering across unglaciated North America at ∼21 ka. The surprising extent of modeled frost weathering suggests, by proxy, the broad legacy of diverse periglacial processes. Complementing previous studies that championed the role of precipitation-driven changes in Critical Zone evolution, our results imply an additional strong temperature control on surficial process efficacy across much of modern North America, both during glacial periods and modern climes.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2020

Deep Learning as a tool to forecast hydrologic response for landslide-prone hillslopes

Empirical thresholds for landslide warning systems have benefitted from the incorporation of soil‐hydrologic monitoring data, but the mechanistic basis for their predictive capabilities is limited. Although physically based hydrologic models can accurately simulate changes in soil moisture and pore pressure that promote landslides, their utility is restricted by high computational costs and nonunique parameterization issues. We construct a deep learning model using soil moisture, pore pressure, and rainfall monitoring data acquired from landslide‐prone hillslopes in Oregon, USA, to predict the timing and magnitude of hydrologic response at multiple soil depths for 36‐hr intervals. We find that observation records as short as 6 months are sufficient for accurate predictions, and our model captures hydrologic response for high‐intensity rainfall events even when those storm types are excluded from model training. We conclude that machine learning can provide an accurate and computationally efficient alternative to empirical methods or physical modeling for landslide hazard warning.

Oregon↗
USGS2020

Using a dense seismic array to determine structure and site effects of the Two Towers earthflow in northern California

We deployed a network of 68 three-component geophones on the slow moving Two Towers earthflow in northern California. We compute horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios (HVSRs) from the ambient seismic field. The HVSRs have two prominent peaks, one near 1.23 Hz and another between 4 and 8 Hz at most stations. The 1.23 Hz resonance is a property of the background noise field and may be due to a velocity contrast at a few hundred meters depth. We interpret the higher frequency peaks as being related to slide deposits and invert the spectral ratios for shallow velocity structure using in situ thickness measurements as a priori constraints on the inversion. The thickness of the shallowest, low-velocity layer is systematically larger than landslide thicknesses inferred from inclinometer data acquired since 2013. Given constraints from field observations and boreholes, the inversion may reflect the thickness of deposits of an older slide that is larger in spatial extent and depth than the currently active slide. Because the HVSR peaks measured at Two Towers are caused by shallow slide deposits and represent frequencies that will experience amplification during earthquakes, the depth of the actively sliding mass may be less relevant for assessing potential slide volume and associated hazard than the thicknesses determined by our inversions. More generally, our results underscore the utility of combining both geotechnical measurements and subsurface imaging for landslide characterization and hazard assessment.

California↗
USGS2020

Rainfall triggers more deep-seated landslides than Cascadia earthquakes in the Oregon Coast Range, USA

The coastal Pacific Northwest USA hosts thousands of deep-seated landslides. Historic landslides have primarily been triggered by rainfall, but the region is also prone to large earthquakes on the 1100-km-long Cascadia Subduction Zone megathrust. Little is known about the number of landslides triggered by these earthquakes because the last magnitude 9 rupture occurred in 1700 CE. Here, we map 9938 deep-seated bedrock landslides in the Oregon Coast Range and use surface roughness dating to estimate that past earthquakes triggered fewer than half of the landslides in the past 1000 years. We find landslide frequency increases with mean annual precipitation but not with modeled peak ground acceleration or proximity to the megathrust. Our results agree with findings about other recent subduction zone earthquakes where relatively few deep-seated landslides were mapped and suggest that despite proximity to the megathrust, most deep-seated landslides in the Oregon Coast Range were triggered by rainfall.

Oregon↗
USGS2018

Clayey landslide initiation and acceleration strongly modulated by soil swelling

Largely unknown mechanisms restrain motion of clay-rich, slow-moving landslides that are widespread worldwide and rarely accelerate catastrophically. We studied a clayey, slow-moving landslide typical of thousands in northern California, USA, to decipher hydrologic-mechanical interactions that modulate landslide dynamics. Similar to some other studies, observed pore-water pressures correlated poorly with landslide reactivation and speed. In situ and laboratory measurements strongly suggested that variable pressure along the landslide's lateral shear boundaries resulting from seasonal soil expansion and contraction modulated its reactivation and speed. Slope-stability modeling suggested that the landslide's observed behavior could be predicted by including transient swell pressure as a resistance term, whereas modeling considering only transient hydrologic conditions predicted movement 5–6 months prior to when it was observed. All clayey soils swell to some degree; hence, our findings suggest that swell pressure likely modulates motion of many landslides and should be considered to improve forecasts of clayey landslide initiation and mobility.

California↗
USGS2017

The waterfall paradox: How knickpoints disconnect hillslope and channel processes, isolating salmonid populations in ideal habitats

Waterfalls create barriers to fish migration, yet hundreds of isolated salmonid populations exist above barriers and have persisted for thousands of years in steep mountainous terrain. Ecological theory indicates that small isolated populations in disturbance-prone landscapes are at greatest risk of extirpation because immigration and recolonization are not possible. On the contrary, many above-barrier populations are currently thriving while their downstream counterparts are dwindling. This quandary led us to explore geomorphic knickpoints as a mechanism for disconnecting hillslope and channel processes by limiting channel incision and decreasing the pace of base-level lowering. Using LiDAR from the Oregon Coast Range, we found gentler channel gradients, wider valleys, lower gradient hillslopes, and less shallow landslide potential in an above-barrier catchment compared to a neighboring catchment devoid of persistent knickpoints. Based on this unique geomorphic template, above-barrier channel networks are less prone to debris flows and other episodic sediment fluxes. These above-barrier catchments also have greater resiliency to flooding, owing to wider valleys with greater floodplain connectivity. Habitat preference models further indicate that salmonid habitat is present in greater quantity and quality in these above-barrier networks. Therefore the paradox of the persistence of small isolated fish populations may be facilitated by a geomorphic mechanism that both limits their connectivity to larger fish populations yet dampens the effect of disturbance by decreasing connections between hillslope and channel processes above geomorphic knickpoints.

Geomorphology↗
USGS2016

Rapid fluvial incision of a late Holocene lava flow: Insights from LiDAR, alluvial stratigraphy, and numerical modeling

Volcanic eruptions fundamentally alter landscapes, paving over channels, decimating biota, and emplacing fresh, unweathered material. The fluvial incision of blocky lava flows is a geomorphic puzzle. First, high surface permeability and lack of sediment should preclude geomorphically effective surface runoff and dissection. Furthermore, past work has demonstrated the importance of extreme floods in driving incision via column toppling and plucking in columnar basalt, but it is unclear how incision occurs in systems where surface blocks are readily mobile. We examine rapid fluvial incision of the Collier lava flow, an andesitic Holocene lava flow in the High Cascades of Oregon. Since lava flow emplacement ∼1600 yr ago, White Branch Creek has incised bedrock gorges up to 8 m deep into the coherent core of the lava flow and deposited >0.2 km 3 of sediment on the lava flow surface. Field observation points to a bimodal discharge regime in the channel, with evidence for both annual snowmelt runoff and outburst floods from Collier glacier, as well as historical evidence of vigorous glacial meltwater. To determine the range of discharge events capable of incision in White Branch Creek, we used a mechanistic model of fluvial abrasion. We show that the observed incision implies that moderate flows are capable of both initiating channel formation and sustaining incision. Our results have implications for the evolution of volcanic systems worldwide, where glaciation and/or mass wasting may accelerate fluvial processes by providing large amounts of sediment to otherwise porous, sediment-starved landscapes.

GSA Bulletin↗