Geology topics

Jonathan C B Nesmith

Publications and source records attributed to Jonathan C B Nesmith.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2021

Nonlinear shifts in infectious rust disease due to climate change

Range shifts of infectious plant disease are expected under climate change. As plant diseases move, emergent abiotic-biotic interactions are predicted to modify their distributions, leading to unexpected changes in disease risk. Evidence of these complex range shifts due to climate change, however, remains largely speculative. Here, we combine a long-term study of the infectious tree disease, white pine blister rust, with a six-year field assessment of drought-disease interactions in the southern Sierra Nevada. We find that climate change between 1996 and 2016 moved the climate optimum of the disease into higher elevations. The nonlinear climate change-disease relationship contributed to an estimated 5.5 (4.4–6.6) percentage points (p.p.) decline in disease prevalence in arid regions and an estimated 6.8 (5.8–7.9) p.p. increase in colder regions. Though climate change likely expanded the suitable area for blister rust by 777.9 (1.0–1392.9) km 2 into previously inhospitable regions, the combination of host-pathogen and drought-disease interactions contributed to a substantial decrease (32.79%) in mean disease prevalence between surveys. Specifically, declining alternate host abundance suppressed infection probabilities at high elevations, even as climatic conditions became more suitable. Further, drought-disease interactions varied in strength and direction across an aridity gradient—likely decreasing infection risk at low elevations while simultaneously increasing infection risk at high elevations. These results highlight the critical role of aridity in modifying host-pathogen-drought interactions. Variation in aridity across topographic gradients can strongly mediate plant disease range shifts in response to climate change.

California↗

USGS2020

Compounding effects of white pine blister rust, mountain pine beetle, and fire threaten four white pine species

Invasive pathogens and bark beetles have caused precipitous declines of various tree species around the globe. Here, we characterized long‐term patterns of mountain pine beetle ( Dendroctonus ponderosae ; MPB) attacks and white pine blister rust, an infectious tree disease caused by the pathogen, Cronartium ribicola . We focused on four dominant white pine host species in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SEKI), including sugar pine ( Pinus lambertiana ), western white pine ( P. monticola ), whitebark pine ( P. albicaulis ), and foxtail pine ( P. balfouriana ). Between 2013 and 2017, we resurveyed 152 long‐term monitoring plots that were first surveyed and established between 1995 and 1999. Overall extent (plots with at least one infected tree) of white pine blister rust (blister rust) increased from 20% to 33%. However, the infection rate across all species decreased from 5.3% to 4.2%. Blister rust dynamics varied greatly by species, as infection rate decreased from 19.1% to 6.4% in sugar pine, but increased in western white pine from 3.0% to 8.7%. For the first time, blister rust was recorded in whitebark pine, but not foxtail pine plots. MPB attacks were highest in sugar pines and decreased in the higher elevation white pine species, whitebark and foxtail pine. Both blister rust and MPB were important factors associated with elevated mortality in sugar pines. We did not, however, find a relationship between previous fires and blister rust occurrence. In addition, multiple mortality agents, including blister rust, fire, and MPB, contributed to major declines in sugar pine and western white pine; recruitment rates were much lower than mortality rates for both species. Our results highlighted that sugar pine has been declining much faster in SEKI than previously documented. If blister rust and MPB trends persist, western white pine may follow similar patterns of decline in the future. Given current spread patterns, blister rust will likely continue to increase in higher elevations, threatening subalpine white pines in the southern Sierra Nevada. More frequent long‐term monitoring efforts could inform ongoing restoration and policy focused on threats to these highly valuable and diverse white pines.

California↗

USGS2020

Whitebark pine in the national parks of the Pacific states: An assessment of population vulnerability

Whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis ) is a long-lived tree found in high-elevation forests of western North America that is declining due to the non-native white pine blister rust ( Cronartium ribicola ) and climate-driven outbreaks of mountain pine beetle ( Dendroctonus ponderosae ; MPB). The National Park Service established a monitoring program for whitebark pine in seven parks, including Sequoia & Kings Canyon, Yosemite, Lassen Volcanic, Crater Lake, Mount Rainier, Olympic, and North Cascades National Parks. Using these data, we summarized stand structure, presence of blister rust, and MPB prevalence to provide a baseline for future monitoring. Next, we used a stochastic, size-structured population model to speculate on future trends in the seven national park populations under conditions of increased MPB activity and ongoing blister rust infection observed in Crater Lake. We found that blister rust infected 29 to 54% of whitebark pine in all the parks except the two southernmost, Sequoia & Kings Canyon and Yosemite, where infections rates were 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. The proportion of dead trees in Sequoia & Kings Canyon and Yosemite was low (0 to 1%), while they ranged from 10 to 43% in the other parks. Model projections suggested an average population decline of 25% in the parks over the next century using Crater Lake conditions, declines which are possible if blister rust continues to spread and climate change results in a significant increase in the frequency or severity of MPB outbreaks. Overall, our study describes conditions at seven western parks and illustrates potential rates of whitebark pine decline if pest outbreaks and/or blister rust infections worsen.

California, Oregon, Washington↗