Geology topics

Jonathan Allan

Publications and source records attributed to Jonathan Allan.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Increased flood exposure in the Pacific Northwest following earthquake-driven subsidence and sea-level rise

Climate-driven sea-level rise is increasing the frequency of coastal flooding worldwide, exacerbated locally by factors like land subsidence from groundwater and resource extraction. However, a process rarely considered in future sea-level rise scenarios is sudden (over minutes) land subsidence associated with great (>M8) earthquakes, which can exceed 1 m. Along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts, the next great Cascadia subduction zone earthquake could cause up to 2 m of sudden coastal subsidence, dramatically raising sea level, expanding floodplains, and increasing the flood risk to local communities. Here, we quantify the potential expansion of the 1% floodplain (i.e., the area with an annual flood risk of 1%) under low (~0.5 m), medium (~1 m), and high (~2 m) earthquake-driven subsidence scenarios at 24 Cascadia estuaries. If a great earthquake occurred today, floodplains could expand by 90 km 2 (low), 160 km 2 (medium), or 300 km 2 (high subsidence), more than doubling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario. By 2100, when climate-driven sea-level rise will compound the hazard, a great earthquake could expand floodplains by 170 km 2 (low), 240 km 2 (medium), or 370 km 2 (high subsidence), more than tripling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario compared to the 2023 floodplain. Our findings can support decision-makers and coastal communities along the Cascadia subduction zone as they prepare for compound hazards from the earthquake cycle and climate-driven sea-level rise and provide critical insights for tectonically active coastlines globally.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2023

Multiscale assessment of shoreline evolution in the US Pacific Northwest via a process-based model

Prediction of shoreline evolution in coastal environments is critical to aid adaptation strategy planning for coastal communities. To perform reliable predictions, process-based shoreline change models have recently gained popularity in many applications. The study region here, Tillamook County, Oregon, on the US Pacific Northwest coast, has recently been experiencing elevated shoreline erosion rates. The inherent uncertainties driving coastal change, e.g., sea-level rise and changing patterns of storminess, emphasize the need for robust shoreline evolution predictions in this region. To this end, we applied CoSMoS-COAST, an ensemble data-assimilated shoreline model that simulates short- and long-term shoreline change processes. We calibrated and validated the model using the hindcasted wave time series and observed shoreline positions and found a strong correlation between the number of observed shoreline positions and the model’s hindcasting skill. Moreover, results revealed an alongshore close-to-uniform shoreline change rate in the past several years, mainly driven by short-term, wave-driven processes. So far CoSMoS-COAST has performed satisfactorily with the spatially sparse supply of quality historical shoreline positions in our application. Moreover, this model resolves various components (e.g., short- and long-term processes) in the shoreline change sufficiently. This study represents a starting point in the long-term projection of shoreline evolution throughout the entire PNW (Oregon and Washington) coastline since Tillamook County features the majority of the coastal settings present in other coastal regions in the PNW.

Oregon↗

USGS2017

Extreme oceanographic forcing and coastal response due to the 2015–2016 El Niño

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability across the Pacific Ocean basin, with influence on the global climate. The two end members of the cycle, El Niño and La Niña, force anomalous oceanographic conditions and coastal response along the Pacific margin, exposing many heavily populated regions to increased coastal flooding and erosion hazards. However, a quantitative record of coastal impacts is spatially limited and temporally restricted to only the most recent events. Here we report on the oceanographic forcing and coastal response of the 2015–2016 El Niño, one of the strongest of the last 145 years. We show that winter wave energy equalled or exceeded measured historical maxima across the US West Coast, corresponding to anomalously large beach erosion across the region. Shorelines in many areas retreated beyond previously measured landward extremes, particularly along the sediment-starved California coast.

Pacific coast↗

USGS2015

Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation

To predict future coastal hazards, it is important to quantify any links between climate drivers and spatial patterns of coastal change. However, most studies of future coastal vulnerability do not account for the dynamic components of coastal water levels during storms, notably wave-driven processes, storm surges and seasonal water level anomalies, although these components can add metres to water levels during extreme events. Here we synthesize multi-decadal, co-located data assimilated between 1979 and 2012 that describe wave climate, local water levels and coastal change for 48 beaches throughout the Pacific Ocean basin. We find that observed coastal erosion across the Pacific varies most closely with El Niño/Southern Oscillation, with a smaller influence from the Southern Annular Mode and the Pacific North American pattern. In the northern and southern Pacific Ocean, regional wave and water level anomalies are significantly correlated to a suite of climate indices, particularly during boreal winter; conditions in the northeast Pacific Ocean are often opposite to those in the western and southern Pacific. We conclude that, if projections for an increasing frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events over the twenty-first century are confirmed, then populated regions on opposite sides of the Pacific Ocean basin could be alternately exposed to extreme coastal erosion and flooding, independent of sea-level rise.

Pacific Ocean↗

USGS2014

Incorporating climate change and morphological uncertainty into coastal change hazard assessments

Documented and forecasted trends in rising sea levels and changes in storminess patterns have the potential to increase the frequency, magnitude, and spatial extent of coastal change hazards. To develop realistic adaptation strategies, coastal planners need information about coastal change hazards that recognizes the dynamic temporal and spatial scales of beach morphology, the climate controls on coastal change hazards, and the uncertainties surrounding the drivers and impacts of climate change. We present a probabilistic approach for quantifying and mapping coastal change hazards that incorporates the uncertainty associated with both climate change and morphological variability. To demonstrate the approach, coastal change hazard zones of arbitrary confidence levels are developed for the Tillamook County (State of Oregon, USA) coastline using a suite of simple models and a range of possible climate futures related to wave climate, sea-level rise projections, and the frequency of major El Niño events. Extreme total water levels are more influenced by wave height variability, whereas the magnitude of erosion is more influenced by sea-level rise scenarios. Morphological variability has a stronger influence on the width of coastal hazard zones than the uncertainty associated with the range of climate change scenarios.

Natural Hazards↗

USGS2014

The rock coast of the USA

The coastline of the USA is vast and comprises a variety of landform types including barrier islands, mainland beaches, soft bluffed coastlines and hard rocky coasts. The majority of the bluffed and rocky coasts are found in the northeastern part of the country (New England) and along the Pacific coast. Rocky and bluffed landform types are commonly interspersed along the coastline and occur as a result of relative lowering of sea level from tectonic or isostatic forcing, which can occur on timescales ranging from instantaneous to millenia. Recent research on sea cliffs in the contiguous USA has focused on a broad range of topics from documenting erosion rates to identifying processes and controls on morphology to prediction modelling. This chapter provides a detailed synthesis of recent and seminal research on rocky coast geomorphology along open-ocean coasts of the continental United States (USA).

Book chapter↗

USGS2013

National assessment of shoreline change: historical shoreline change along the Pacific Northwest coast

Beach erosion is a chronic problem along most open ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to increase and infrastructure is threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding past and present trends and rates of shoreline movement. There is also a need for a comprehensive analysis of shoreline movement that is consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting an analysis of historical shoreline changes along the open-ocean sandy shores of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii, Alaska, and the Great Lakes. One purpose of this work is to develop standard, repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic, systematic, and internally consistent updates regarding coastal erosion and land loss can be made nationally. In the case of the analysis of shoreline change in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), the shoreline is the interpreted boundary between the ocean water surface and the sandy beach. This report on the PNW coasts of Oregon and Washington is the seventh in a series of regionally focused reports on historical shoreline change. Previous investigations include analyses and descriptive reports of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (Morton and others, 2004), the southeastern Atlantic (Morton and Miller, 2005), the sandy shorelines (Hapke and others, 2006) and coastal cliffs (Hapke and Reid, 2007) of California, the New England and mid-Atlantic coasts (Hapke and others, 2011), and parts of the Hawaii coast (Fletcher and others, 2012). Like the earlier reports in this series, this report summarizes the methods of analysis, interprets the results of the analysis, provides explanations regarding long- and short-term trends and rates of shoreline change, and describes how different coastal communities are responding to coastal erosion. This report differs from the early USGS reports in the series in that those shoreline change analyses incorporated only four total shorelines to represent specific time periods. This assessment of the PNW incorporates all available shorelines that meet minimum quality standards for resolution and positional accuracy. Shoreline change evaluations are based on a comparison of historical shoreline positions digitized from maps or aerial photographic data sources with recent shorelines, at least one of which is derived from lidar surveys. The historical shorelines cover a variety of time periods ranging from the 1800s through the 1980s, whereas the lidar shoreline is from 2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated using all available shoreline data and short-term rates of change are calculated using the lidar shoreline and the historical shoreline that will produce an assessment for a 15- to 35-year period. The rates of change presented in this report represent conditions up to the date of only the most recent shoreline data and therefore are not intended for predicting future shoreline positions or rates of change. The PNW coast was subdivided into eight analysis regions for the purpose of graphically reporting regional trends in shoreline change rates. The average rate of long-term shoreline change for the entire PNW coast was 0.9 meter per year (m/yr) of progradation with an uncertainty of 0.07 m/yr. This rate is based on 8,823 individual transects, of which 36 percent was determined to be eroding. Long-term shoreline change was generally more progradational in Washington than in Oregon. This is primarily due to the influence of the Columbia River and human perturbations to the natural system, particularly the construction of jetties at both the mouth of the Columbia River and at Grays Harbor, Washington. The majority of the beaches in southwestern Washington have responded to these large-scale engineered structures by experiencing dramatic beach progradation during the past century. Although these beaches are still responding to the human effects, in several locations beaches that had been rapidly prograding are now either prograding at a slower rate or eroding. The average rate of short-term shoreline change in the PNW was also progradational at a rate of 0.9 m/yr with an uncertainty of 0.03 m/yr. This rate is based on 9,087 individual transects, of which 44 percent was determined to be eroding. Similar to the results of the long-term shoreline change analysis, the shorelines in Washington were typically more progradational than those in Oregon in the short term. However, many stretches of coast in Oregon are either less accretional, changed from accretional to erosional, or more erosional when comparing the long- and short-term rate calculations. In the long and short term, there are significantly different historical shoreline change trends for beaches deriving their modern sediments from the Columbia River in southwestern Washington and northwestern Oregon, and beaches elsewhere in the PNW. The majority of shorelines in Oregon and in Washington’s Olympic Peninsula are not influenced by the human effects to the Columbia River littoral cell and typically have not experienced the human-induced century-scale trends apparent in southwestern Washington and northwestern Oregon. An increase in erosion hazards in much of Oregon may be related to the effects of sea-level rise and increasing storm wave heights. Of importance, particularly in the short term, is the alongshore variability in land uplift rates due to tectonics, which results in an alongshore varying rate of relative sea level rise that appears to at least partially control the regional variability in short-term shoreline change rates. Other climate related processes, such as the occurrence of major El Niño events, also significantly affect the shoreline changes in the region. Major El Niño events elevate monthly mean sea levels by tens of centimeters throughout the winter and produce a shift in the storm tracks, resulting in alongshore redistributions in sand volumes on the beaches, leading to hotspot beach erosion and property losses north of headlands and tidal inlets to bays and estuaries. There are limited modern-day sources of sand to Oregon’s beaches, with much of the sand being relict in having arrived thousands of years ago at a time of lowered sea levels when headlands did not prevent the alongshore movement of the beach sediments, the result being that many beaches today are deficient in sand volumes and therefore do not provide sufficient buffer protection to backshore properties during winter storms.

Oregon;Washington↗

USGS2011

The impact of the 2009-10 El Niño Modoki on U.S. West Coast beaches

High-resolution beach morphology data collected along much of the U.S. West Coast are synthesized to evaluate the coastal impacts of the 2009–10 El Niño. Coastal change observations were collected as part of five beach monitoring programs that span between 5 and 13 years in duration. In California, regional wave and water level data show that the environmental forcing during the 2009–10 winter was similar to the last significant El Niño of 1997–98, producing the largest seasonal shoreline retreat and/or most landward shoreline position since monitoring began. In contrast, the 2009–10 El Niño did not produce anomalously high mean winter-wave energy in the Pacific Northwest (Oregon and Washington), although the highest 5% of the winter wave-energy measurements were comparable to 1997–98 and two significant non-El Niño winters. The increase in extreme waves in the 2009–10 winter was coupled with elevated water levels and a more southerly wave approach than the long-term mean, resulting in greater shoreline retreat than during 1997–98, including anomalously high shoreline retreat immediately north of jetties, tidal inlets, and rocky headlands. The morphodynamic response observed throughout the U.S. West Coast during the 2009–10 El Niño is principally linked to the El Niño Modoki phenomena, where the warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly is focused in the central equatorial Pacific (as opposed to the eastern Pacific during a classic El Niño), featuring a more temporally persistent SST anomaly that results in longer periods of elevated wave energy but lower coastal water levels.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2010

Assessing societal vulnerability of U.S. Pacific Northwest communities to storm-induced coastal change

Progressive increases in storm intensities and extreme wave heights have been documented along the U.S. West Coast. Paired with global sea level rise and the potential for an increase in El Niño occurrences, these trends have substantial implications for the vulnerability of coastal communities to natural coastal hazards. Community vulnerability to hazards is characterized by the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of human-environmental systems that influence potential impacts. To demonstrate how societal vulnerability to coastal hazards varies with both physical and social factors, we compared community exposure and sensitivity to storm-induced coastal change scenarios in Tillamook (Oregon) and Pacific (Washington) Counties. While both are backed by low-lying coastal dunes, communities in these two counties have experienced different shoreline change histories and have chosen to use the adjacent land in different ways. Therefore, community vulnerability varies significantly between the two counties. Identifying the reasons for this variability can help land-use managers make decisions to increase community resilience and reduce vulnerability in spite of a changing climate.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2009

Movement triggers and remediation in a fracture-dominated translational landslide at the Oregon coast

The Johnson Creek landslide is a translational slide in seaward dipping Miocene siltstone and sandstone (Astoria Formation) and an overlying Quaternary marine terrace deposit. The slide terminates in a sea cliff and has a hummocky to nearly horizontal ground surface. The basal slide plane, however, slopes subparallel to the dip of the Miocene rocks, except beneath the back-tilted toe blocks where it curves upward. The siltstone and sandstone have low estimated permeability but cores and field mapping reveal an extensive fracture system within the slide mass. The slide mainly moves in response to groundwater pressure and coastal erosion of the toe. Limit-equilibrium stability analyses indicate that 3 m of erosion at the toe would destabilize the slide for most of the wet season, although no movement could be directly attributed to erosion in the 5 years of observation. Intense rainfall events raise pore-water pressure throughout the slide in the form of pulses of water pressure traveling from the headwall graben down the axis of the slide at rates of 1.4-2.5 m/hr in the upper part, and 3.5 m/hr to virtually instantaneous in the middle part. Infiltration of meteoric water was only ~50 mm/hr. Slope of the water table exceeds topographic slope from the head to the toe of the slide, so infiltration was too slow to directly raise head in 90 percent of the slide mass where the saturated zone is deeper than a few meters. Only at the headwall graben was the saturated zone shallow enough for rainfall events to trigger pulses of water pressure through the entire saturated zone. When a pressure pulse reached the threshold pressure for movement in the central part of the slide, the whole slide began slow, creeping movement. As head became larger and larger than the threshold for movement in more of the slide mass, movement accelerated and differential displacement between internal slide blocks became more pronounced. These findings suggest that dewatering the shallowest part of the saturated zone in this type of slide will stop these rapid pressure pulses, thereby stopping or greatly reducing seasonal movement. If slides are also subject to continual removal of material from the toe, especially where there are back-tilted toe blocks, then some type of buttress or tied-back shear pile wall may be the only effective long term remediation.

Oregon↗