Geology topics

Jon Keeley

Publications and source records attributed to Jon Keeley.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2021

Wildfires and global change

No single factor produces wildfires; rather, they occur when fire thresholds (ignitions, fuels, and drought) are crossed. Anomalous weather events may lower these thresholds and thereby enhance the likelihood and spread of wildfires. Climate change increases the frequency with which some of these thresholds are crossed, extending the duration of the fire season and increasing the frequency of dry years. However, climate-related factors do not explain all of the complexity of global fire-regime changes, as altered ignition patterns (eg human behavior) and fuel structures (eg land-use changes, fire suppression, drought-induced dieback, fragmentation) are extremely important. When the thresholds are crossed, the size of a fire will largely depend on the duration of the fire weather and the extent of the available area with continuous fuels in the landscape.

southeast Australia↗

USGS2021

Multiple-scale relationships between vegetation, the wildland–urban interface, and structure loss to wildfire in California

Recent increases in destructive wildfires are driving a need for empirical research documenting factors that contribute to structure loss. Existing studies show that fire risk is complex and varies geographically, and the role of vegetation has been especially difficult to quantify. Here, we evaluated the relative importance of vegetation cover at local (measured through the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and landscape (as measured through the Wildland–Urban Interface) scales in explaining structure loss from 2013 to 2018 in California—statewide and divided across three regions. Generally, the pattern of housing relative to vegetation better explained structure loss than local-scale vegetation amount, but the results varied regionally. This is likely because exposure to fire is a necessary first condition for structure survival, and sensitivity is only relevant once the fire reaches there. The relative importance of other factors such as long-term climatic variability, distance to powerlines, and elevation also varied among regions. These suggest that effective fire risk reduction strategies may need to account for multiple factors at multiple scales. The geographical variability in results also reinforces the notion that “one size does not fit all”. Local-scale empirical research on specific vegetation characteristics relative to structure loss is needed to inform the most effective customized plan.

California↗

USGS2021

Effects of postfire climate and seed availability on postfire conifer regeneration

Large, severe fires are becoming more frequent in many forest types across the western United States and have resulted in tree mortality across tens of thousands of hectares. Conifer regeneration in these areas is limited because seeds must travel long distances to reach the interior of large burned patches and establishment is jeopardized by increasingly hot and dry conditions. To better inform postfire management in low elevation forests of California, USA, we collected 5‐year postfire recovery data from 1,234 study plots in 19 wildfires that burned from 2004–2012 and 18 years of seed production data from 216 seed fall traps (1999–2017). We used this data in conjunction with spatially extensive estimates of climate, topography, forest composition, and burn severity to construct taxon‐specific, spatially explicit models of conifer regeneration that incorporate estimated climate conditions and seed availability during postfire recovery windows. We found that after accounting for other predictors both postfire and historical precipitation were strong predictors of regeneration, suggesting that both direct effects of postfire moisture conditions and biological inertia from historical climate may play a role in regeneration. Alternatively, postfire regeneration may simply be driven by postfire climate and apparent relationships with historical climate could be spurious. The estimated sensitivity of regeneration to postfire seed availability was strongest in firs and all conifers combined and weaker in pines. Seed production exhibited high temporal variability with seed production varying by over two orders of magnitude among years. Our models indicate that during droughts postfire conifer regeneration declines most substantially in low‐to‐moderate elevation forests. These findings enhance our mechanistic understanding of forecasted and historically documented shifts in the distribution of trees.

California↗

USGS2021

Seed production patterns of surviving Sierra Nevada conifers show minimal change following drought

Reproduction is a key component of ecological resilience in forest ecosystems, so understanding how seed production is influenced by extreme drought is key to understanding forest recovery trajectories. If trees respond to mortality-inducing drought by preferentially allocating resources for reproduction, the recovery of the stand to pre-drought conditions may be enhanced accordingly. We used a 20-year annual seed capture data set to investigate whether seed production by three tree genera commonly found in the Sierra Nevada ( Abies , Pinus , and Calocedrus ) was correlated with variation in local weather, which included an extreme drought spanning multiple years. We tested whether average seed production differed during the drought years, and whether annual seed counts could be explained by three weather variables: spring temperature, annual precipitation, and summer climatic water deficit (CWD). We fit models testing for four separate effects: (1) a priming year model (weather 1 year prior to reproductive bud initiation), (2) a bud initiation model (weather in the year of reproductive bud initiation), (3) a pollination year model (weather in the year of pollination), and (4) maturation year model (weather in the year of seed maturation). For genera with two-year reproductive cycles, the pollination and maturation models were combined. We found support for the summer CWD Abies maturation year model, which suggested higher seed outputs immediately following dry summer conditions. The spring temperature pollination year model was selected for Pinus , which suggested that seed output is higher following warm spring weather during pollination. The annual precipitation priming year model was selected for Calocedrus , which showed a negative association between seed production and wetter conditions two years prior to seed production. More parent tree basal area resulted in higher seed output for all genera, though the confidence intervals overlapped 0 for Calocedrus . Permutation tests sugested there was no systematic difference in mean seed production during the drought after accounting for live tree basal area, regardless of genus. These results highlight the variability in response across genera, and suggest that the influence of seed production on forest recovery following drought-related mortality may depend on affected species and the timing of the mortality event within the masting cycle. A greater understanding of species-level masting to drought stress is needed to more precisely predict community-level recovery following drought.

California↗

USGS2021

Contrasting prescription burning and wildfires in California Sierra Nevada national parks and adjacent national forests

History of prescription burning and wildfires in the three Sierra Nevada National Park Service (NPS) parks and adjacent US Forest Service (USFS) forests is presented. Annual prescription (Rx) burns began in 1968 in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, followed by Yosemite National Park and Lassen Volcanic National Park. During the last third of the 20th century, USFS national forests adjacent to these parks did limited Rx burns, accounting for very little area burned. However, in 2004, an aggressive annual burn program was initiated in these national forests and in the last decade, area burned by planned prescription burns, relative to area protected, was approximately comparable between these NPS and USFS lands. In 1968, the NPS prescription burning program was unique because it coupled planned Rx burns with managing many lightning-ignited fires for resource benefit. From 1968 to 2017, these natural fires managed for resource benefit averaged the same total area burned as planned Rx burns in the three national parks; thus, they have had a substantial impact on total area burned by prescription. In contrast, on USFS lands, most lightning-ignited fires have been managed for suppression, but increasing attention is being paid to managing wildfires for resource benefit.

California↗

USGS2021

Ignitions explain more than climate or weather in driving Santa Ana Wind fires

Autumn and winter Santa Ana wind (SAW)–driven wildfires play a substantial role in area burned and societal losses in southern California. Temperature during the event and antecedent precipitation in the week or month prior play a minor role in determining area burned. Burning is dependent on wind intensity and number of human-ignited fires. Over 75% of all SAW events generate no fires; rather, fires during a SAW event are dependent on a fire being ignited. Models explained 40 to 50% of area burned, with number of ignitions being the strongest variable. One hundred percent of SAW fires were human caused, and in the past decade, powerline failures have been the dominant cause. Future fire losses can be reduced by greater emphasis on maintenance of utility lines and attention to planning urban growth in ways that reduce the potential for powerline ignitions.

California↗

USGS2020

Subspecies differentiation in an enigmatic chaparral shrub species

Premise Delimiting biodiversity units is difficult in organisms in which differentiation is obscured by hybridization, plasticity, and other factors that blur phenotypic boundaries. Such work is more complicated when the focal units are subspecies, the definition of which has not been broadly explored in the era of modern genetic methods. Eastwood manzanita ( Arctostaphylos glandulosa Eastw.) is a widely distributed and morphologically complex chaparral shrub species with much subspecific variation, which has proven challenging to categorize. Currently 10 subspecies are recognized, however, many of them are not geographically segregated, and morphological intermediates are common. Subspecies delimitation is of particular importance in this species because two of the subspecies are rare. The goal of this study was to apply an evolutionary definition of “subspecies” to characterize structure within Eastwood manzanita. Methods We used publicly available geospatial environmental data and reduced‐representation genome sequencing to characterize environmental and genetic differentiation among subspecies. In addition, we tested whether subspecies could be differentiated by environmentally associated genetic variation. Results Our analyses do not show genetic differentiation among subspecies of Eastwood manzanita, with the exception of one of the two rare subspecies. In addition, our environmental analyses did not show ecological differentiation, though limitations of the analysis prevent strong conclusions. Conclusions Genetic structure within Eastwood manzanita does not correspond to current subspecies circumscriptions, but rather reflects geographic distribution. Our study suggests that subspecies concepts need to be reconsidered in long‐lived plant species, especially in the age of next‐generation sequencing.

American Journal of Botany↗

USGS2020

Mapping fire regime ecoregions in California

The fire regime is a central framing concept in wildfire science and ecology and describes how a range of wildfire characteristics vary geographically over time. Understanding and mapping fire regimes is important for guiding appropriate management and risk reduction strategies and for informing research on drivers of global change and altered fire patterns. Most efforts to spatially delineate fire regimes have been conducted by identifying natural groupings of fire parameters based on available historical fire data. This can result in classes with similar fire characteristics but wide differences in ecosystem types. We took a different approach and defined fire regime ecoregions for California to better align with ecosystem types, without using fire as part of the definition. We used an unsupervised classification algorithm to segregate the state into spatial clusters based on distinctive biophysical and anthropogenic attributes that drive fire regimes – and then used historical fire data to evaluate the ecoregions. The fire regime ecoregion map corresponded well with the major land cover types of the state and provided clear separation of historical patterns in fire frequency and size, with lower variability in fire severity. This methodology could be used for mapping fire regimes in other regions with limited historical fire data or forecasting future fire regimes based on expected changes in biophysical characteristics.

California↗

USGS2020

Protecting the wildland-urban interface in California: Greenbelts vs thinning for wildfire threats to homes

This study utilized native chaparral and sage scrub shrubs to evaluate the impact of light summer irrigation on live fuel moisture content (LFMC) and predicted fire behavior. As to be expected LFMC varied markedly throughout the year being over 100% in winter in all species and treatments but differed markedly by treatment in the summer and fall. For most species lightly irrigated plants had the highest LFMC in the summer and fall, followed by thinned treatments and controls. These differences in moisture content coupled with structural differences in the vegetation contributed to expected differences in flame length and rate of spread. Lightly irrigated native shrubs planted around homes can reduce fire hazard and at the same time increase faunal diversity and other desirable features of utilizing native vegetation.

California↗

USGS2020

Why are so many structures burning in California?

California has earned a reputation for wildfires that inflict serious damage on human infrastructure, dating back to images of Richard Nixon hosing down the roof of his house in the 1961 Bel-Air fire, and of the famous “fireproof” home of grocery store entrepreneur Fred Roberts burning to the ground in 1982. In recent years, this notoriety has been transformed into public alarm, reflected in the apocalyptic headlines of recent newspaper articles suggesting the “end of California” (New York Times, 30 October 2019) and that “California is becoming unlivable” (The Atlantic, 30 October 2019). Now the phrase “the new normal” has worked its way into the lexicon, sustained by record-breaking struc- ture loss numbers in 2017 and 2018 despite significantly lower structure losses in 2019. It remains to be seen whether or not those two recent years were back-to-back one-in-a-hundred-year events, or if the trend has crossed some kind of tipping point, but data do show a longterm trend of significant increase in structures lost to wildfires since the beginning of the 20th century (Fig. 1). What was an average of ~500 homes lost per year in Southern California from about 1950–2000 (CalFire 2000) has recently climbed to ~2700 structures per year statewide from 2000–2018 (Syphard and Keeley 2019). California is not alone in the U.S., or in the world, in suffering increasing impacts from wildfires (e.g., Blanchi et al. 2012, Haynes 2015, Viegas 2018). Impacts so far in the current Australian bushfire season have been recordbreaking, with several thousand structures lost, more than 25 fatalities, and unthinkable losses to wildlife. The question that follows, then, is why?

California↗

USGS2020

Nexus between wildfire, climate change and population growth in California

Since the year 2000 California has experienced a remarkable upsurge in wildfires. Over five million hectares have burned in the last 20 years, which is double the area burned in the previous two decades. Much of this increase has been driven by large fires of more than 50,000 hectares that cause catastrophic losses of lives and property (Keeley and Syphard 2019). This increased fire activity has been correlated with an increase in average temperature over this same period, leading many observers to assert that global climate change must be playing a major role. Climate models forecast continued warming and thus some have suggested these catastrophic fires are the “new normal” or the “new abnormal” (Birnbaum 2018). In contrast, others have declared that these fires are the result of ‘forest mismanagement’ (Cranley 2018) and this has stimulated renewed interest in fuel reduction (Office of Governor 2019). It’s almost as though these opinions aren’t even in reference to the same fires, and as described below, there is some validity to this assertion.

California↗

USGS2019

Framework for monitoring shrubland community integrity in California Mediterranean type ecosystems: Information for policy makers and land managers

Shrublands in Mediterranean‐type ecosystems worldwide support important ecosystem services including high levels of biodiversity and are threatened by multiple factors in heavily used landscapes. Use, conservation, and management of these landscapes involve diverse stakeholders, making decision processes complex. To be effective, management and land use decisions should be informed by current information on ecosystem quality and resilience. However, obtaining this information is often a challenge due to the extent of landscapes involved. Here we present a conceptual integrity monitoring framework based on simple easily observable ecosystem components readily understood by nonspecialists. Community integrity is defined by plant functional group based on relative proportion of shrubs and nonnative annual grasses. The ability to use these straightforward metrics results from four factors: relatively good alignment of characteristic bird, mammal, and insect communities with shrub cover, positive feedback between annual grasses and short fire intervals, the inhibitory effect of annual grasses on shrub seedling establishment, and similar functional group response to different disturbances. Two additional metrics, indicator species and shrub species diversity, capture subtle yet persistent signatures of disturbance on integrity not reflected in functional group composition. The framework is designed to: categorize habitats into ecosystem integrity classes, forecast likely integrity class changes caused by threats and environmental conditions, and provide a simple reporting mechanism that can be overlain with data on conservation status and vulnerabilities. The proposed framework includes a pilot phase to validate empirical relationships, thresholds, and sampling efficiency. The accessibility of these metrics to nonspecialists is anticipated to enhance communication among stakeholders and thus facilitate problem solving. Leveraging monitoring and mapping programs driven by other needs (e.g., species conservation and fire management) affords meaningful opportunities to offset program costs.

California↗

USGS2019

Factors associated with structure loss in the 2013–2018 California wildfires

Tens of thousands of structures and hundreds of human lives have been lost in recent fire events throughout California. Given the potential for these types of wildfires to continue, the need to understand why and how structures are being destroyed has taken on a new level of urgency. We compiled and analyzed an extensive dataset of building inspectors’ reports documenting homeowner mitigation practices for more than 40,000 wildfire-exposed structures from 2013–2018. Comparing homes that survived fires to homes that were destroyed, we investigated the role of defensible space distance, defensive actions, and building structural characteristics, statewide and parsed into three broad regions. Overall, structural characteristics explained more of a difference between survived and destroyed structures than defensible space distance. The most consistently important structural characteristics—having enclosed eaves, vent screens, and multi-pane windows—were those that potentially prevented wind-born ember penetration into structures, although multi-pane windows are also known to protect against radiant heat. In the North-Interior part of the state, active firefighting was the most important reason for structure survival. Overall, the deviance explained for any given variable was relatively low, suggesting that other factors need to be accounted for to understand the full spectrum of structure loss contributors. Furthermore, while destroyed homes were preferentially included in the study, many “fire-safe” structures, having > 30 m defensible space or fire-resistant building materials, were destroyed. Thus, while mitigation may play an important role in structure survival, additional strategies should be considered to reduce future structure loss.

California↗

USGS2019

Fire, climate and changing forests

A changing climate implies potential transformations in plant demography, communities, and disturbances such as wildfire and insect outbreaks. How do these dynamics play out in terrestrial ecosystems across scales of space and time? “Vegetation type conversion” (VTC) is a term used to describe abrupt and long-lasting changes in vegetation structure and composition due to various kinds of perturbations. For example, it has long been observed that fire-adapted ecosystems such as the California chaparral shrublands are readily replaced by non-native annual grasses when humans increase fire frequency. Similar effects are being observed in Sonoran Desert plant communities, where invasion by non-native buffelgrass (Cenchrus ciliare) exposes a fire-sensitive plant community to high-intensity fires, which are lethal to the long-lived iconic Sonoran flora such as Saguaro cactus (Carnegiea gigantea). While type conversions following severe disturbance have been observed for some time, the mechanisms that underlay such changes are only recently coming to light. Threshold behavior is of particular concern: as various climate indices pass critical values, some ecosystems may be reaching points of no return where recovery to the earlier state is no longer possible. A recent publication in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, U.S., has now revealed that increased fire severity impairs post-fire forest regeneration, setting the stage for potential large-scale type conversion of western conifer forests.

Nature Plants↗

USGS2019

Twenty-first century California, USA, wildfires: Fuel-dominated vs. wind-dominated fires

Since the beginning of the twenty-first century California, USA, has experienced a substantial increase in the frequency of large wildfires, often with extreme impacts on people and property. Due to the size of the state, it is not surprising that the factors driving these changes differ across this region. Although there are always multiple factors driving wildfire behavior, we believe a helpful model for understanding fires in the state is to frame the discussion in terms of bottom-up vs. top-down controls on fire behavior; that is, fires that are clearly dominated by anomalously high fuel loads from those dominated by extreme wind events. Of course, this distinction is somewhat artificial in that all fires are controlled by multiple factors involving fuels, winds, and topography. However, we believe that fires clearly recognizable as fuel-dominated vs. wind-dominated provide interesting case studies of factors behind these two extremes. These two types of fires differ greatly in their (1) geographical distribution in the state, (2) past fire history, (3) prominent sources of ignition, (4) seasonal timing, (5) resources most at risk, and (6) requirement for different management responses.

California↗

USGS2019

Negative impacts of summer heat on Sierra Nevada tree seedlings

Understanding the response of forests to climate change is important for predicting changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services, including carbon storage. Seedlings represent a key demographic stage in these responses, because seedling establishment is necessary for population persistence and spread, and because the conditions allowing seedlings to survive and grow are often more restrictive than those adults can tolerate. However, detailed long‐term data on the responses of individual seedlings to climatic variation are rare. Here, we analyze a decade of seedling growth and survival data collected in 25 long‐term plots located in Sequoia and Yosemite National Parks. The forest types represented range from lower‐elevation mixed conifer, to red fir‐dominated, to high‐elevation western white pine stands. Twelve species, including two oaks and ten conifers, are found across these plots. Survival and transition to larger size classes are modeled within a Bayesian framework as a function of species, size, fire, and various climate variables. We initially expected that precipitation‐related variables would have a strong effect on seedling survival and growth in this Mediterranean‐climate region and that some species might respond positively to higher temperatures if they are adapted to warmer low‐elevation areas or to higher‐than‐average temperatures if they are high‐elevation species whose growing seasons are limited by cold. However, we found that higher July maximum temperature or temperature anomalies were associated with lower survival and growth for most species, while precipitation and snow effects were weaker and more variable. Higher precipitation had a positive effect on survival of most species, but snow effects and precipitation effects on growth could be negative. Given the estimated climate responses, under potential future scenarios of higher summer temperatures and altered precipitation, most species are predicted to have lower survival and reduced growth. This is likely to favor species that have relatively high survival and growth and less negative responses to climatic shift (such as several of the pines) and perhaps lead to a more open forest structure—or potentially transition to non‐forest vegetation types where seedling recruitment does not keep pace with adult mortality.

California↗

USGS2019

Postfire population dynamics of a fire-dependent cypress

Tecate cypress ( Hesperocyparis forbesii ) is a rare species restricted to four metapopulations in southern California, USA and a few isolated stands in northern Baja California, Mexico. It is a closed-cone, fire-dependent tree of conservation concern due to an increase in human-caused wildfires that have shortened the interval between fires in many of their populations. In 2003 the Mine/Otay Fire burned 70% of the Tecate cypress on Otay Mountain in San Diego County, California providing an opportunity to evaluate the immaturity risk of this species and to examine its recruitment, survivorship, and reproductive maturity over a 14-year period from 2004 to 2017. Sixteen plots were established in burned stands of Tecate cypress with prefire ages that ranged from 7 to 53 years old. After 14 years the overall density of Tecate cypress was still higher than before the fire, however the areal extent of the species decreased due to the loss of locations where either there was low cone production or fire intensity was too high. The immaturity risk for this species, while a function of prefire stand age, is confounded by other factors including the reproductive capacities of trees based on their density and size and the climatic variables affecting their growth over time. The future management of Tecate cypress and other fire-dependent species requires a knowledge of all factors impacting their immaturity risk, as well as an understanding of the potential fire-climate interactions that may impact their persistence in a future of climate change and altered fire regimes.

California↗

USGS2019

Wildfires as an ecosystem service

Wildfires are often viewed as destructive disturbances. We propose that when including both evolutionary and socioecological scales, most ecosystem fires can be understood as natural processes that provide a variety of benefits to humankind. Wildfires provide open habitats that enable the evolution of a diversity of shade-intolerant plants and animals that have long been used by humans. There are many provisioning, regulating, and cultural services that we obtain from wildfires; prescribed fires and wildfire management are tools for mimicking the ancestral role of wildfires in a highly populated world.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗