Geology topics
Publications and source records attributed to John Vidale.
No abstract available.
We have produced a large set of broadband (0–10 Hz) synthetic seismograms for Mw 9.0 earthquakes on the Cascadia megathrust by combining synthetic seismograms derived from 3D finite‐difference simulations ( ≤1 Hz ) with finite‐source, stochastic synthetics ( ≥1 Hz ). We used a compound rupture model consisting of high stress drop M w 8 subevents superimposed on large, shallower slip with long‐slip duration, informed by observations of the M w 9.0 Tohoku, Japan, and M w 8.8 Maule, Chile, earthquakes. Thirty 3D simulations were run, considering a variety of rupture parameters, to determine the range of expected ground motions. For sites not in sedimentary basins, the spectral accelerations of the synthetics are similar to the BC Hydro ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for periods of 0.1–6 s, but exceed them at periods greater than 6 s. Response spectra from the synthetics at sites in the Seattle and Tacoma sedimentary basins show large amplifications of factors of 2–5 at periods of 1–10 s. This basin amplification is substantially larger than that found for crustal earthquakes in the Next Generation Attenuation‐West2 (NGA‐West2) GMPEs. Basin amplification is caused by basin‐edge generated surface waves and by amplification and focusing of S waves and surface waves by the 3D basin structure. The synthetic seismograms show effective average durations of strong motions of about 70 s for coastal sites, increasing to about 120 s at 200 km distance. We find that the interevent and intraevent standard deviations of the spectral amplitudes of the synthetics are larger for sites closer to the rupture, because they are more sensitive to the location of subevents and rupture directivity.
We observed several swarms of repeating low-frequency (1–5 Hz) seismic events during a 3 week period in May–June 2010, near the summit of Mount Rainier, Washington, USA, that likely were a result of stick–slip motion at the base of alpine glaciers. The dominant set of repeating events ('multiplets') featured >4000 individual events and did not exhibit daytime variations in recurrence interval or amplitude. Volcanoes and glaciers around the world are known to produce seismic signals with great variability in both frequency content and size. The low-frequency character and periodic recurrence of the Mount Rainier multiplets mimic long-period seismicity often seen at volcanoes, particularly during periods of unrest. However, their near-surface location, lack of common spectral peaks across the recording network, rapid attenuation of amplitudes with distance, and temporal correlation with weather systems all indicate that ice-related source mechanisms are the most likely explanation. We interpret the low-frequency character of these multiplets to be the result of trapping of seismic energy under glacial ice as it propagates through the highly heterogeneous and attenuating volcanic material. The Mount Rainier multiplet sequences underscore the difficulties in differentiating low-frequency signals due to glacial processes from those caused by volcanic processes on glacier-clad volcanoes.
Geologic and historical records indicate that the Cascadia subduction zone is capable of generating large, megathrust earthquakes up to magnitude 9. The last great Cascadia earthquake occurred in 1700, and thus there is no direct measure on the intensity of ground shaking or specific rupture parameters from seismic recordings. We use 3-D numerical simulations to generate broadband (0-10 Hz) synthetic seismograms for 50 M9 rupture scenarios on the Cascadia megathrust. Slip consists of multiple high-stress drop subevents (~M8) with short rise times on the deeper portion of the fault, superimposed on a background slip distribution with longer rise times. We find a >4x variation in the intensity of ground shaking depending upon several key parameters, including the down-dip limit of rupture, the slip distribution and location of strong-motion-generating subevents, and the hypocenter location. We find that extending the down-dip limit of rupture to the top of the non-volcanic tremor zone results in a ~2-3x increase in peak ground acceleration for the inland city of Seattle, Washington, compared to a completely offshore rupture. However, our simulations show that allowing the rupture to extend to the up-dip limit of tremor (i.e., the deepest rupture extent in the National Seismic Hazard Maps), even when tapering the slip to zero at the down-dip edge, results in multiple areas of coseismic coastal uplift. This is inconsistent with coastal geologic evidence (e.g., buried soils, submerged forests), which suggests predominantly coastal subsidence for the 1700 earthquake and previous events. Defining the down-dip limit of rupture as the 1 cm/yr locking contour (i.e., mostly offshore) results in primarily coseismic subsidence at coastal sites. We also find that the presence of deep subevents can produce along-strike variations in subsidence and ground shaking along the coast. Our results demonstrate the wide range of possible ground motions from an M9 megathrust earthquake in Cascadia, and the potential to further constrain key rupture parameters using geologic and geophysical observations, ultimately improving our estimation of seismic hazard associated with the Cascadia megathrust.
A prototype earthquake early warning (EEW) system is currently in development in the Pacific Northwest. We have taken a two‐stage approach to EEW: (1) detection and initial characterization using strong‐motion data with the Earthquake Alarm Systems (ElarmS) seismic early warning package and (2) the triggering of geodetic modeling modules using Global Navigation Satellite Systems data that help provide robust estimates of large‐magnitude earthquakes. In this article we demonstrate the performance of the latter, the Geodetic First Approximation of Size and Time (G‐FAST) geodetic early warning system, using simulated displacements for the 2001 M w 6.8 Nisqually earthquake. We test the timing and performance of the two G‐FAST source characterization modules, peak ground displacement scaling, and Centroid Moment Tensor‐driven finite‐fault‐slip modeling under ideal, latent, noisy, and incomplete data conditions. We show good agreement between source parameters computed by G‐FAST with previously published and postprocessed seismic and geodetic results for all test cases and modeling modules, and we discuss the challenges with integration into the U.S. Geological Survey’s ShakeAlert EEW system.
Subduction zones contain many of Earth’s most remarkable geologic structures, from the deepest oceanic trenches to glacier-covered mountains and steaming volcanoes. These environments formed through spectacular events: Nature’s largest earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions are born here.
This report, prepared for the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC), is intended as a step toward improving communications about earthquake hazards between information providers and users who coordinate emergency-response activities in the Cascadia region of the Pacific Northwest. NEPEC charged a subcommittee of scientists with writing this report about forewarnings of increased probabilities of a damaging earthquake. We begin by clarifying some terminology; a “prediction” refers to a deterministic statement that a particular future earthquake will or will not occur. In contrast to the 0- or 100-percent likelihood of a deterministic prediction, a “forecast” describes the probability of an earthquake occurring, which may range from >0 to <100 percent. When the time window is short (days to months) and the forecast is formulated for operational utility, this term may be “operational earthquake forecasting.” The subcommittee considered short-term forecasts only, herein referred to as “forewarnings,” but not their formulation into messages or their applications, which will be addressed by NEPEC in subsequent activities. The subcommittee considered “direct” and “indirect” forewarnings. Direct forewarnings originate with observed changes in geologic processes or conditions, which may include Increased rates of M >4 earthquakes on the plate interface north of the Mendocino region Changes in shallow seismicity patterns Increased rates of moderate earthquakes within the subducting plate Changes in the pattern of slow slip on the plate interface and other major faults Indirect forewarnings are based largely on model predictions of increased earthquake-occurrence probabilities. In this context, “models” refers to simulations of the processes believed to affect earthquake occurrence, as implemented in computer software, laboratory experiments, or some analog natural system. These indirect forewarnings likely will be more uncertain and difficult to interpret than direct forewarnings. This report also highlights the challenges of assessing the significance of forewarnings, which mostly will be extraordinary events with little or no historical precedent in the Cascadia region.
Any good seismologist–carryball (i.e., American football) fan remembers the “beast quake” of 2011. Seahawks fans’ exuberant reactions to a Marshawn Lynch (in beast mode) run caused the stadium to shake enough to be well recorded on a strong‐motion seismograph a block away ( Vidale, 2011 ). With the Seahawks at home for the National Football Conference (NFC) Championship playoffs, both last year and this year, the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network (PNSN) received permission to install some seismometers in the stadium. Motivations for the experiment included testing the field and telemetry equipment, examining analysis and display techniques, and practicing quick reactions to mobilize field experiments. With PNSN students and staff who are also Seahawks fans, it was not hard to get volunteers to do the installations and monitor the on‐field actions and the resulting seismograms.
In September 2004, Mount St. Helens volcano erupted after nearly 18 years of quiescence. However, it is unclear from the limited geophysical observations when or if the magma chamber replenished following the 1980–1986 eruptions in the years before the 2004–2008 extrusive eruption. We use coda wave interferometry with repeating earthquakes to measure small changes in the velocity structure of Mount St. Helens volcano that might indicate magmatic intrusion. By combining observations of relative velocity changes from many closely located earthquake sources, we solve for a continuous function of velocity changes with time. We find that seasonal effects dominate the relative velocity changes. Seismicity rates and repeating earthquake occurrence also vary seasonally; therefore, velocity changes and seismicity are likely modulated by snow loading, fluid saturation, and/or changes in groundwater level. We estimate hydrologic effects impart stress changes on the order of tens of kilopascals within the upper 4 km, resulting in annual velocity variations of 0.5 to 1%. The largest nonseasonal change is a decrease in velocity at the time of the deep M w  = 6.8 Nisqually earthquake. We find no systematic velocity changes during the most likely times of intrusions, consistent with a lack of observable surface deformation. We conclude that if replenishing intrusions occurred, they did not alter seismic velocities where this technique is sensitive due to either their small size or the finite compressibility of the magma chamber. We interpret the observed velocity changes and shallow seasonal seismicity as a response to small stress changes in a shallow, pressurized system.
Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems can provide as much as tens of seconds of warning to people and automated systems before strong shaking arrives. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners are developing such an EEW system, called ShakeAlert, for the West Coast of the United States. This document describes the technical implementation of that system, which leverages existing stations and infrastructure of the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) regional networks to achieve this new capability. While significant progress has been made in developing the ShakeAlert early warning system, improved robustness of each component of the system and additional testing and certification are needed for the system to be reliable enough to issue public alerts. Major components of the system include dense networks of ground motion sensors, telecommunications from those sensors to central processing systems, algorithms for event detection and alert creation, and distribution systems to alert users. Capital investment costs for a West Coast EEW system are projected to be $38.3M, with additional annual maintenance and operations totaling $16.1M—in addition to current ANSS expenditures for earthquake monitoring. An EEW system is complementary to, but does not replace, other strategies to mitigate earthquake losses. The system has limitations: false and missed alerts are possible, and the area very near to an earthquake epicenter may receive little or no warning. However, such an EEW system would save lives, reduce injuries and damage, and improve community resilience by reducing longer-term economic losses for both public and private entities.