Geology topics

John F. Piatt

Publications and source records attributed to John F. Piatt.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Lingering impacts of the 2014-2016 northeast Pacific marine heatwave on seabird demography in Cook Inlet, Alaska (USA)

A protracted period (2014-2016) of anomalously warm water in the northeast Pacific Ocean precipitated an extensive die-off of common murres Uria aalge (hereafter ‘murres’) during 2015-2016, accompanied by reduced colony attendance and reproductive success of murres and black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla (‘kittiwakes’) starting in 2015. Most murres died of starvation following a large-scale reduction in abundance and quality of forage fish. To assess murre and kittiwake recovery following the marine heatwave, we monitored their demographics at 2 colonies (Chisik and Gull Islands) in Cook Inlet, Alaska (USA), from 2016 to 2019. Compared to historic data (1995-1999), we observed declines and increased variability in colony attendance and productivity across species and colonies, and predation was widespread. At Chisik, where food limitations were common during historic studies, both species experienced substantial population declines and reproductive failures in all 4 years (2016-2019) following the heatwave. At Gull, a typically productive colony during historic studies, murres failed to fledge chicks for 3 years (2016-2018) following the heatwave. By 2019, murre productivity recovered to about half that observed during historic studies (0.28 vs. 0.54 chicks per pair), but populations had declined by half. Kittiwake population size at Gull declined a quarter from historic counts, and reproduction alternated between complete breeding failures (2016/2018) and high productivity (2017/2019). These multi-year demographic impacts indicate lingering effects of the heatwave on kittiwakes and murres through forage fish depletion and increased predator disturbance, and possibly other stressors. It remains unknown whether populations can rebound to historic levels. If so, recovery would likely take decades.

Alaska↗

USGS2024

Mechanisms by which marine heatwaves impact seabirds

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are characterized by periods of extreme warming of local to basin-scale marine habitat. Effects of MHWs on some seabirds (e.g. mass die-offs) are well documented, but mechanisms by which seabirds respond to MHWs remain poorly understood. Following from a symposium at the 3 rd World Seabird Conference, this Theme Section presents recent research to address this knowledge gap. Studies included here spanned one or more MHW event, at spatial scales from individual seabird colonies to large marine ecosystems in subtropical, temperate, and polar oceans, and over timespans from months to decades. The findings summarized herein indicate that MHWs can affect seabirds directly by creating physiological heat stress that affects behavior or survival, or indirectly by disrupting seabird food webs, largely by altering metabolic rates in ectothermic prey species, leading to effects on their associated predators and prey. Four main mechanisms by which MHWs affect seabirds are (1) habitat modification, (2) physiological forcing, (3) behavioral responses, and (4) ecological processes or species interactions. Most seabird species have experienced limited effects from MHWs to date, owing to ecological and behavioral adaptations that buffer MHW effects. However, the intensity and frequency of MHWs is increasing due to global warming, and more seabird species may have difficulty coping with future heatwave events. Also, MHW impacts can persist for years after a MHW ends, so consequences of recent or future MHWs could continue to unfold over time for many long-lived seabird species.

MEPS↗

USGS2024

Quantifying spatiotemporal variation of nearshore forage fish schools with aerial surveys in Prince William Sound, Alaska

Objective Changes in abundance and distribution of schooling forage fish, such as the Pacific Sand Lance Ammodytes hexapterus and Pacific Herring Clupea pallasii , can be difficult to document using traditional boat-based methods, especially in the shallow, nearshore habitats frequented by these species. In contrast, nearshore fish schools are easily observed and quantified from aircraft when light and sea conditions are favorable. We used aerial shoreline surveys to assess interannual variability in the distribution and abundance of schooling forage fish in Prince William Sound, Alaska, during the summers of 2010 and 2012–2022. Methods During the surveys, aerial observers classified fish schools by their size, species, and (in some cases) age-class. All observations were georeferenced along the flight path, converted to estimated surface area (m 2 ) based on school diameter, and standardized by effort (shoreline kilometers surveyed). Result Pacific Herring were widely distributed, and school densities varied annually; there were several spikes in school density of up to 54.38 m 2 /km interspersed among years of lower average densities (7.73–25.57 m 2 /km). In contrast, Pacific Sand Lance were usually limited in their distribution to a few predictable locations. School density in these consistent areas varied across years, from a high of 50.98 m 2 /km in 2010 to a low of 0.15 m 2 /km in 2017. We validated 88 schools during aerial surveys conducted in 2014–2016 and 2019–2022, of which 76 (86%) were correctly identified to species. Conclusion Here, we provide indices of Pacific Herring and Pacific Sand Lance school density over time in shallow nearshore coastal areas of Prince William Sound, Alaska. These indices were generated from aerial surveys, which offer an effective alternative to boat-based surveys for tracking forage fish schools when they occur in shallow and nearshore coastal habitats.

Alaska↗

USGS2024

Predator disturbance contributed to Common Murre Uria aalge breeding failures in Cook Inlet, Alaska following the 2014–2016 Pacific marine heatwave

The 2014-2016 Pacific marine heatwave caused unprecedented die-offs and multi-year reproductive failures for Common Murres Uria aalge along the west coast of North America. Lingering impacts, such as declines in colony attendance and productivity, have persisted at some colonies following the heatwave and are attributed largely to changes in prey availability and quality. Here, we present evidence of an additional, top-down mechanism contributing to Common Murre breeding failures on Gull Island (Alaska): disturbance of nesting birds by aerial predators and associated egg depredation. We collected time-lapse images over five murre breeding seasons (2016-2020) on Gull Island to document the frequency, duration, and intensity of disturbances caused by aerial predators, as well as to quantify disturbance-associated egg depredation. To identify seasonal and inter-annual variability of disturbances, we calculated a daily disturbance index and compared years using generalized additive models. In all years, Bald Eagles Haliaeetus leucocephalus were the primary cause of disturbance, which led to periods of prolonged colony abandonment by murres and facilitated high levels of murre egg depredation by Glaucous-winged Gulls Larus glaucescens and Herring Gulls L. argentatus . We found that the seasonality of disturbance was an important factor in determining egg depredation rates. In years when disturbance levels were high and persisted later in the season, the colony experienced complete breeding failures due to disturbance-associated egg depredation. Our study revealed that the response of nesting murres to a strong environmental perturbation, such as the Pacific marine heatwave, can be complex and involve multiple stressors from both bottom-up and top-down factors.

Alaska↗

USGS2024

Capelin on the rebound: Using seabird diets to track trends in forage fish populations

Capelin are cold-water forage fish that respond rapidly to fluctuating ocean temperatures. They are prized food for seabirds and other marine predators in Alaska. Researchers have monitored seabird diets at Middleton Island for decades to make connections between changes in abundance of predators and their prey. During a prolonged marine heatwave in the Gulf of Alaska, seabird diets and limited trawl surveys showed that capelin populations collapsed from record high abundance during the 2007–2013 cool period (Hatch 2013) to record lows in 2016 (Arimitsu et al. 2021). Capelin occurrence in diets had previously oscillated out of phase with Pacific sand lance numbers during cold and warm years (Sydeman et al. 2017), however, the occurrence of both prey species in seabird diets fell below average during 2014–2022 (Fig. 1). Following a period of cooler ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska, during 2023 we began to see signs of capelin stock recovery, with a moderate increase in occurrence in spring and summer seabird diets (Fig. 1, Hatch et al. 2023). Continued monitoring of seabird diets can help track capelin populations and other key forage fish to inform ecosystem-based management in 2024 and beyond.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Joint spatiotemporal models to predict seabird densities at sea

Introduction: Seabirds are abundant, conspicuous members of marine ecosystems worldwide. Synthesis of distribution data compiled over time is required to address regional management issues and understand ecosystem change. Major challenges when estimating seabird densities at sea arise from variability in dispersion of the birds, sampling effort over time and space, and differences in bird detection rates associated with survey vessel type. Methods: Using a novel approach for modeling seabirds at sea, we applied joint dynamic species distribution models (JDSDM) with a vector-autoregressive spatiotemporal framework to survey data collected over nearly five decades and archived in the North Pacific Pelagic Seabird Database. We produced monthly gridded density predictions and abundance estimates for 8 species groups (77% of all birds observed) within Cook Inlet, Alaska. JDSDMs included habitat covariates to inform density predictions in unsampled areas and accounted for changes in observed densities due to differing survey methods and decadal-scale variation in ocean conditions. Results: The best fit model provided a high level of explanatory power (86% of deviance explained). Abundance estimates were reasonably precise, and consistent with limited historical studies. Modeled densities identified seasonal variability in abundance with peak numbers of all species groups in July or August. Seabirds were largely absent from the study region in either fall (e.g., murrelets) or spring (e.g., puffins) months, or both periods (shearwaters). Discussion: Our results indicated that pelagic shearwaters ( Ardenna spp.) and tufted puffin ( Fratercula cirrhata ) have declined over the past four decades and these taxa warrant further investigation into underlying mechanisms explaining these trends. JDSDMs provide a useful tool to estimate seabird distribution and seasonal trends that will facilitate risk assessments and planning in areas affected by human activities such as oil and gas development, shipping, and offshore wind and renewable energy.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Monitoring long-term changes in forage fish distribution, abundance and body condition in Prince William Sound

Identifying drivers of change in forage fish populations is key to understanding recovery potential for piscivorous species injured by the Exxon Valdez oil spill, and ecosystem response to natural and anthropogenic perturbations. Forage fish are small pelagic schooling fish such as Pacific capelin (Mallotus catervarius), Pacific sand lance (Ammodytes personatus), Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii), and juvenile walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus) that are prey of many marine predators. Krill (Euphausiidae) are also an important prey taxa sampled in this study. The goals of the Gulf Watch Alaska forage fish monitoring project are to provide information on the population trends of forage species in the Gulf of Alaska and to better understand how underlying predator-prey interactions influence recovering species and the pelagic ecology of Prince William Sound. The main sampling components of the program include acoustic-trawl surveys for forage fish in Prince William Sound during the Fall Integrated Predator-Prey survey (September), and seabird diet sampling at Middleton Island during spring/summer (April – August). We also validate aerial surveys conducted by the Herring Research and Monitoring program (June), and sample summer spawning capelin and sand lance (July) for condition analyses. This work has provided information important to understanding ecosystem response to perturbations in the northern Gulf of Alaska.

Alaska↗

USGS2022

African penguins and localized fisheries management: Response to Butterworth and Ross-Gillespie

We present a response to Butterworth and Ross-Gillespie's (2022) comment on our perspectives on how forage fish fisheries are impacting the endangered African penguin ( Sphenicus demersus ), and corresponding management options. Butterworth and Ross-Gillespie overstate model uncertainties and downplay the clear ecological and conservation significance of the fisheries closure experiment. We demonstrate that their criticism of “pseudo-replication” is weak, and not in line with their own analyses nor with the interpretations of many international scientific review panels commissioned by the government of South Africa to evaluate experimental results. Their comment does not alter our fundamental conclusions that forage fisheries operating near penguin breeding colonies compete with the birds for food resources, are detrimental to the penguin's population health, and are impeding recovery. Given that sardines are depleted (DFFE, 2021) and the African penguin is approaching a conservation crisis, we reiterate our position that continuing the precautionary approach of closures at the local scale of central-place foraging penguins is warranted to facilitate their population growth under fisheries management goals to conserve and maintain ecosystem functions.

ICES Journal of Marine Science↗

USGS2022

Kittlitz’s murrelet seasonal distribution and post-breeding migration from the Gulf of Alaska to the Arctic Ocean

Kittlitz’s Murrelets ( Brachyramphus brevirostris ) nest during summer in glaciated or recently deglaciated (post-Wisconsin) landscapes. They forage in adjacent marine waters, especially those influenced by glacial meltwater. Little is known of their movements and distribution outside the breeding season. To identify post-breeding migrations of murrelets, we attached satellite transmitters to birds (n = 47) captured at sea in the Gulf of Alaska and Aleutian Islands during May – July 2009 – 15 and tracked 27 birds that migrated from capture areas. Post-breeding murrelets migrated toward the Bering Sea, with short periods of movement (median 2 d) separated by short stopovers (median 1 d). Travel speeds averaged 79.4 km d-1 (83.5 SD, 449.1 maximum). Five Kittlitz’s Murrelets tagged in Prince William Sound in May migrated to the Bering Sea by August and four continued north to the Arctic Ocean, logging 2500 – 4000 km of travel. Many birds spent 2‒3 weeks with little movement along coasts of the Alaska Peninsula or eastern Bering Sea during late August through September, also the pre-basic molt period. Ship-based surveys, many of which were conducted concurrently with our telemetry studies, confirmed that substantial numbers of Kittlitz’s Murrelets migrate into the Arctic Ocean during autumn. They also revealed that some birds spend winter and spring in the Bering Sea in association with ice-edge, polynya, or marginal ice zone habitats before returning to summer breeding grounds. We conclude that this species is best characterized as a sub-Arctic and Arctic species, which has implications for future risk assessments and threat mitigation.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

South Africa's experimental fisheries closures and recovery of the endangered African penguin

In a scientifically-transformative project, South Africa implemented a decade-long field experiment to understand how fisheries may be affecting its most iconic seabird, the African penguin Spheniscus demersus. This unique effort prohibits the take of anchovy and sardine within relatively small areas around four African penguin breeding colonies, two in the Benguela upwelling ecosystem and two in the adjacent Agulhas region. For the Benguela, fisheries closures within the birds’ primary foraging range increased their breeding productivity and perhaps reduced parental foraging efforts, indicating that the fisheries are competing with the birds for food. Results were less clear for foraging behaviour in the Agulhas, but no data on breeding success were collected there. The African penguin is endangered, its population continues to decline, and fisheries closures have been demonstrated to improve demographic traits that contribute to population growth. Therefore, given the critical status of the species, fisheries closures should be maintained, at least at Dassen Island where the population has great capacity to expand and support other nearby colonies. Continuing or implementing corresponding fisheries closures in the Agulhas region is also warranted, as well as creating and testing the value of pelagic closed areas during the non-breeding season when the penguins disperse widely across these ecosystems. These management actions would increase penguin food supplies and may help to meet societal goals of halting the decline of the penguin population, as well as maintaining the economic and cultural services provided by fisheries and ecotourism.

Agulhas, Benguela, Dassen Island↗

USGS2021

Integrating seabird dietary and groundfish stock assessment data: Can puffins predict pollock spawning stock biomass in the North Pacific?

Information on the annual variability in abundance and growth of juvenile groundfish can be useful for predicting fisheries stocks, but is often poorly known owing to difficulties in sampling fish in their first year of life. In the Western Gulf of Alaska (WGoA) and Eastern Bering Sea (EBS) ecosystems, three species of puffin (tufted and horned puffin, Fratercula cirrhata, Fratercula corniculata, and rhinoceros auklet , Cerorhinca monocerata , Alcidae), regularly prey upon (i.e., “sample”) age-0 groundfish, including walleye pollock ( Gadus chalcogramma , Gadidae) and Pacific cod ( Gadus microcephalus , Gadidae). Here, we test the hypothesis that integrating puffin dietary data with walleye pollock stock assessment data provides information useful for fisheries management, including indices of interannual variation in age-0 abundance and growth. To test this hypothesis, we conducted cross-correlation and regression analyses of puffin-based indices and spawning stock biomass (SSB) for the WGoA and EBS walleye pollock stocks. For the WGoA, SSB leads the abundance of age-0 fish in the puffin diet, indicating that puffins sample the downstream production of the WGoA spawning stock. By contrast, the abundance and growth of age-0 fish sampled by puffins lead SSB for the EBS stock by 1–3 years, indicating that the puffin diet proxies incoming year class strength for this stock. Our study indicates connectivity between the WGoA and EBS walleye pollock stocks. Integration of non-traditional data sources, such as seabird diet data, with stock assessment data appears useful to inform information gaps important for managing US fisheries in the North Pacific.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Ecosystem response persists after a prolonged marine heatwave

Some of the longest and most comprehensive marine ecosystem monitoring programs were established in the Gulf of Alaska following the environmental disaster of the Exxon Valdez oil spill over 30 years ago. These monitoring programs have been successful in assessing recovery from oil spill impacts, and their continuation decades later has now provided an unparalleled assessment of ecosystem responses to another newly emerging global threat, marine heatwaves. The 2014–2016 northeast Pacific marine heatwave (PMH) in the Gulf of Alaska was the longest lasting heatwave globally over the past decade, with some cooling, but also continued warm conditions through 2019. Our analysis of 187 time series from primary production to commercial fisheries and nearshore intertidal to offshore oceanic domains demonstrate abrupt changes across trophic levels, with many responses persisting up to at least 5 years after the onset of the heatwave. Furthermore, our suite of metrics showed novel community-level groupings relative to at least a decade prior to the heatwave. Given anticipated increases in marine heatwaves under current climate projections, it remains uncertain when or if the Gulf of Alaska ecosystem will return to a pre-PMH state.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Heatwave-induced synchrony within forage fish portfolio disrupts energy flow to top pelagic predators

During the Pacific marine heatwave of 2014–2016, abundance and quality of several key forage fish species in the Gulf of Alaska were simultaneously reduced throughout the system. Capelin ( Mallotus catervarius ), sand lance ( Ammodytes personatus ), and herring ( Clupea pallasii ) populations were at historically low levels, and within this community abrupt declines in portfolio effects identify trophic instability at the onset of the heatwave. Although compensatory changes in age‐structure, size, growth or energy content of forage fish were observed to varying degrees among all these forage fish, none were able to fully mitigate adverse impacts of the heatwave, which likely included both top‐down and bottom‐up forcing. Notably, changes to the demographic structure of forage fish suggested size‐selective removals typical of top‐down regulation. At the same time, zooplankton community structure may have driven bottom‐up regulation as copepod community structure shifted towards smaller, warm‐water species, and euphausiid biomass was reduced owing to the loss of cold‐water species. Mediated by these impacts on the forage fish community, an unprecedented disruption of the normal pelagic food web was signaled by higher trophic level disruptions during 2015–2016, when seabirds, marine mammals, and groundfish experienced shifts in distribution, mass mortalities, and reproductive failures. Unlike decadal‐scale variability underlying ecosystem regime shifts, the heatwave appeared to temporarily overwhelm the ability of the forage fish community to buffer against changes imposed by warm water anomalies, thereby eliminating any ecological advantages that may have accrued from having a suite of coexisting forage species with differing life history compensations.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Reduced quality and synchronous collapse of forage species disrupts trophic transfer during a prolonged marine heatwave

The Gulf of Alaska forage fish community includes a few key species that differ markedly in their timing of spawning, somatic growth and lipid storage, and in their migration behavior. This diversity in life history strategies facilitates resilience in marine food webs because it buffers predators against the naturally high variance in abundance of pelagic forage fish populations by decreasing the likelihood that all species will be scarce at the same time. During the prolonged North Pacific marine heatwave of 2014-2016, the availability and quality of at least three key forage species with different life history strategies were reduced simultaneously in the system. Capelin and sand lance occurrence in predator diets declined abruptly, and Prince William Sound herring spawning biomass declined to historically low levels. Biomass of euphausiids was also reduced, in part due to the loss of a cold-water species. Changes in age structure, growth, and energy content of capelin, sand lance, and herring were also associated with warming during the heatwave, but not all species responded in the same way. For example, spawning capelin grew faster and matured at a younger age but were shorter in length than usual, while sand lance in Prince William Sound experienced anomalously low growth rates and lipid storage in 2015-2016. Changes in forage fish populations had immediate impacts on predator populations in 2015-2016, when seabirds and marine mammals experienced shifts in distribution, mass mortality, and reproductive failures in the Gulf of Alaska. In contrast, copepod abundance increased on the shelf and in some coastal regions during the heatwave, suggesting that food availability was not a primary factor limiting forage fish populations at this time. The reduced quality and collapse of multiple forage fish populations reduced the efficiency of energy transfer through the middle trophic level of pelagic food webs, disrupting energy flow to piscivorous pelagic predators and causing abrupt and extreme reductions in their numbers and productivity.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Monitoring the recovery of seabirds and forage fish following a major ecosystem disruption in Lower Cook Inlet

Following the North Pacific marine heatwave of 2014-2016 and associated extreme die-off of seabirds in the winter of 2015-2016, we repeated historical marine bird and forage fish surveys around two seabird colonies (Gull Island, Chisik Island) in lower Cook Inlet during 2016-2019 in order to document immediate and lingering impacts of the heatwave on resident fish and seabird populations. At sea, we conducted acoustic/trawl surveys for fish in near-colony areas, while simultaneously counting seabirds on survey transects. At colonies, we monitored bird numbers on whole colony censuses and population plot counts and assessed annual reproductive success of Black-legged Kittiwakes ( Rissa tridactyla ) and Common Murres ( Uria aalge ). Our studies suggest that impacts of the heatwave on seabirds and their forage base were severe and extended for several years beyond the heatwave itself. Although fish biomass indices were greatest in 2016-2017, the forage community was largely dominated by juvenile fish with low nutritional value following a collapse of key species of forage fish during the marine heatwave. Lowest fish biomass was observed in 2018, coincident with a marked decline in the at-sea abundance of many seabirds around colonies. By 2019 there were signs of improvement in prey abundance and quality, and significant aggregations of pre-spawning capelin and large sand lance were observed in and around Kachemak Bay. In comparison with historical (1996-1999) bird colony surveys, kittiwake population counts decreased by more than 70% at Chisik Island, and by 8-29% at Gull Island. Similarly, murre counts decreased at Chisik Island by 72% and by more than 20% at Gull Island. Kittiwakes had complete reproductive failure at Chisik Island from 2016-2018, with minimal success in 2019. At Gull Island, kittiwakes also failed in 2016 and 2018 but had unusually high productivity in 2017 and 2019. Murres also had complete reproductive failures at Chisik Island in all four years and at Gull Island during 2016, 2017 and 2018. Murres finally fledged chicks in 2019, albeit at about half the normal rate. Finally, we also observed unusually high levels of predator disturbance (egg predation, flushing adults from plots) and unprecedented numbers of adult birds in poor body condition (“skinny murres”), particularly in 2018. Together, these results indicate that an extreme disruption of marine food webs occurred during and after the heatwave. Given the prolonged reproductive failures, continued monitoring is required to assess continuing impacts and recovery from the 2014-2016 heatwave. For example, murre chicks that would have been produced in 2016 should, after 4-5 years away, start recruiting to the colony in 2021, and thereby replace aged adults that would have died naturally in the past year(s). Without such natal recruitment for at least the next 3-4 years, we should document a continuing decline in bird numbers at the colonies.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Another bad year for seabirds on Gull Island

The USGS monitored Black-legged Kittiwake and Common Murre populations on Gull Island from 1995-1999, and from 2016-2021, following the 2014-2016 northeast Pacific marine heatwave. USGS research, which is supported by the USGS and BOEM, includes population monitoring, and quantifying breeding success and predator disturbances. This information is preliminary or provisional and is subject to revision. Learn more: https://www.usgs.gov/centers/alaska-science-center/science/cook-inlet-seabird-and-forage-fish-study

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Seabird‐induced natural mortality of forage fish varies with fish abundance: Evidence from five ecosystems

Forage fish populations often undergo large and rapid fluctuations in abundance. However, most of their predators are buffered against such fluctuations owing to their slower pace of life, which allows them to maintain more stable populations, at least during short periods of food scarcity. In this study, we investigated top‐down processes exerted by seabirds on forage fish stocks in five contrasted marine ecosystems, compiling numerous data sets on seabird counts, diets, energetic needs and prey energy content and abundance. Off Norway, South Africa, Peru, Sweden and Scotland, we found that predation pressure—estimated as the proportion of a fish stock consumed by seabirds—was generally low (median = 1%), but increased sharply at low levels of prey abundance. When prey biomass decreased below 15–18% of its maximum recorded value, predation by seabirds became a source of important additional pressure on prey stocks (~20% of prey biomass is consumed by seabirds). An earlier empirical study advocated for keeping forage stocks from falling below a threshold of 33% of long‐term maximum prey biomass in order to safeguard seabird breeding success, but here we further suggest that a threshold of 18% should be considered as a limit not to be exceeded for the sake of the forage fish themselves, and below which extra cautious management of fisheries may be required. Nevertheless, despite exceptionally high rates of predation on some occasions, predation pressure was not correlated with prey dynamics, suggesting an absence of prey entrapment due to seabirds alone in these five ecosystems.

Fish and Fisheries↗

USGS2020

Can oceanic prey effects on growth and time to fledging mediate terrestrial predator limitation of an at‐risk seabird?

Most seabird species nest colonially on cliffs or islands with limited terrestrial predation, so that oceanic effects on the quality or quantity of prey fed to chicks more often determine nest success. However, when predator access increases, impacts can be dramatic, especially when exposure to predators is extended due to slow growth from inadequate food. Kittlitz’s Murrelet ( Brachyramphus brevirostris ), a rare seabird having experienced serious declines, nests solitarily on the ground in barren, often alpine areas where exposure to predators is generally low. Nestling growth rates are exceptionally high and nestling periods very short relative to other Alcidae. This strategy reduces duration of exposure to predators, but demands adequate deliveries of high‐energy prey. In an area where foxes can access nests, we investigated whether varying energy content of prey fed to chicks could alter growth rates and resulting duration of predator exposure, and whether prolonged exposure appreciably reduced nest success. From 2009 to 2016, we monitored 139 nests; 49% were depredated (almost all by foxes) and 25% fledged. Prey fed to nestlings were 80% Pacific sand lance ( Ammodytes personatus ) and 19% capelin ( Mallotus villosus ), with capelin having 2.3× higher energy content per fish. In a year of slow chick growth, increased sand lance energy density of 31% (4.29–5.64 kJ/g, within published values), or increased proportion of capelin in the diet from 5.6% to 27.2%, would have allowed maximum chick growth. Maximum growth rates were attainable by delivering only 1.9 capelin/d versus 5.5 sand lance/d. Slow growth increased time to fledging by up to 5 d, decreasing survival by 7.7% (0.142–0.131). Breeding propensity of Kittlitz’s Murrelet averages only 20%, so even small changes in nest success could affect populations. Although nest success was limited mainly by predation, oceanic effects on prey quantity and quality had overriding impacts in one year (2015 heat wave), and small but substantive effects in other years by mediating exposure to predation. Climate warming that decreases availability of high‐energy forage fish, or increases expansion of predators into nesting habitats, may disproportionately affect this sensitive species and others with predator‐accessible nests and demands for energy‐rich prey.

Alaska↗