Geology topics

John D. Lyons

Publications and source records attributed to John D. Lyons.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2016

FishVis, A regional decision support tool for identifying vulnerabilities of riverine habitat and fishes to climate change in the Great Lakes Region

Climate change is expected to alter the distributions and community composition of stream fishes in the Great Lakes region in the 21st century, in part as a result of altered hydrological systems (stream temperature, streamflow, and habitat). Resource managers need information and tools to understand where fish species and stream habitats are expected to change under future conditions. Fish sample collections and environmental variables from multiple sources across the United States Great Lakes Basin were integrated and used to develop empirical models to predict fish species occurrence under present-day climate conditions. Random Forests models were used to predict the probability of occurrence of 13 lotic fish species within each stream reach in the study area. Downscaled climate data from general circulation models were integrated with the fish species occurrence models to project fish species occurrence under future climate conditions. The 13 fish species represented three ecological guilds associated with water temperature (cold, cool, and warm), and the species were distributed in streams across the Great Lakes region. Vulnerability (loss of species) and opportunity (gain of species) scores were calculated for all stream reaches by evaluating changes in fish species occurrence from present-day to future climate conditions. The 13 fish species included 4 cold-water species, 5 cool-water species, and 4 warm-water species. Presently, the 4 cold-water species occupy from 15 percent (55,000 kilometers [km]) to 35 percent (130,000 km) of the total stream length (369,215 km) across the study area; the 5 cool-water species, from 9 percent (33,000 km) to 58 percent (215,000 km); and the 4 warm-water species, from 9 percent (33,000 km) to 38 percent (141,000 km). Fish models linked to projections from 13 downscaled climate models projected that in the mid to late 21st century (2046–65 and 2081–2100, respectively) habitats suitable for all 4 cold-water species and 4 of 5 cool-water species under present-day conditions will decline as much as 86 percent and as little as 33 percent, and habitats suitable for all 4 warm-water species will increase as much as 33 percent and as little as 7 percent. This report documents the approach and data used to predict and project fish species occurrence under present-day and future climate conditions for 13 lotic fish species in the United States Great Lakes Basin. A Web-based decision support mapping application termed “FishVis” was developed to provide a means to integrate, visualize, query, and download the results of these projected climate-driven responses and help inform conservation planning efforts within the region.

Great Lakes Region↗

USGS2015

A model for evaluating stream temperature response to climate change in Wisconsin

Expected climatic changes in air temperature and precipitation patterns across the State of Wisconsin may alter future stream temperature and flow regimes. As a consequence of flow and temperature changes, the composition and distribution of fish species assemblages are expected to change. In an effort to gain a better understanding of how climatic changes may affect stream temperature, an approach was developed to predict and project daily summertime stream temperature under current and future climate conditions for 94,341 stream kilometers across Wisconsin. The approach uses a combination of static landscape characteristics and dynamic time-series climatic variables as input for an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Model integrated with a Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) Model. Future climate scenarios are based on output from downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs). The SWB model provided a means to estimate the temporal variability in groundwater recharge and provided a mechanism to evaluate the effect of changing air temperature and precipitation on groundwater recharge and soil moisture. The Integrated Soil-Water-Balance and Artificial Neural Network version 1 (SWB-ANNv1) Model was used to simulate daily summertime stream temperature under current (1990–2008) climate and explained 76 percent of the variation in the daily mean based on validation at 67 independent sites. Results were summarized as July mean water temperature, and individual stream segments were classified by thermal class (cold, cold transition, warm transition, and warm) for comparison of current (1990–2008) with future climate conditions. Integrating the SWB Model with the ANN Model provided a mechanism by which downscaled global or regional climate model results could be used to estimate the potential effects of climate change on future stream temperature on a daily time step. To address future climate scenarios, statistically downscaled air temperature and precipitation projections from 10 GCMs and 2 time periods were used with the SWB-ANNv1 Model to project future stream temperature. Projections of future stream temperatures at mid- (2046–65) and late- (2081–2100) 21st century showed the July mean water temperature increasing for all stream segments with about 80 percent of stream kilometers increasing by 1 to 2 degrees Celsius (°C) by mid-century and about 99 percent increasing by 1 to 3 °C by late-century. Projected changes in stream temperatures also affected changes in thermal classes with a loss in the total amount of cold-water, cold-transition, and warm-transition thermal habitat and a gain in warm-water and very warm thermal habitat for both mid- and late-21st century time periods. The greatest losses occurred for cold-water streams and the greatest gains for warm-water streams, with a contraction of cold-water streams in the Driftless Area of western and southern Wisconsin and an expansion of warm-water streams across northern Wisconsin. Results of this study suggest that such changes will affect the composition of fish assemblages, with a loss of suitable habitat for cold-water fishes and gain in suitable habitat for warm-water fishes. In the end, these projected changes in thermal habitat attributable to climate may result in a net loss of fisheries, because many warm-water species may be unable to colonize habitats formerly occupied by cold-water species because of other habitat limitations (e.g., stream size, gradient). Although projected stream temperatures may vary greatly, depending on the emissions scenario and models used, the results presented in this report represent one possibility. The relative change in stream temperature can provide useful information for planning for potential climate impacts to aquatic ecosystems. Model results can be used to help identify vulnerabilities of streams to climate change, guide stream surveys and thermal classifications, prioritize the allocation of scarce financial resources, identify approaches to climate adaptation to best protect and enhance resiliency in stream thermal habitat, and provide information to make quantitative assessments of statewide stream resources.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2014

Predicted effects of future climate warming on thermal habitat suitability for Lake Sturgeon ( Acipenser fulvescens , Rafinesque, 1817) in rivers in Wisconsin, USA

The Lake Sturgeon ( Acipenser fulvescens , Rafinesque, 1817) may be threatened by future climate warming. The purpose of this study was to identify river reaches in Wisconsin, USA, where they might be vulnerable to warming water temperatures. In Wisconsin, A. fulvescens is known from 2291 km of large-river habitat that has been fragmented into 48 discrete river-lake networks isolated by impassable dams. Although the exact temperature tolerances are uncertain, water temperatures above 28–30°C are potentially less suitable for this coolwater species. Predictions from 13 downscaled global climate models were input to a lotic water temperature model to estimate amounts of potential thermally less-suitable habitat at present and for 2046–2065. Currently, 341 km (14.9%) of the known habitat are estimated to regularly exceed 28°C for an entire day, but only 6 km (0.3%) to exceed 30°C. In 2046–2065, 685–2164 km (29.9–94.5%) are projected to exceed 28°C and 33–1056 km (1.4–46.1%) to exceed 30°C. Most river-lake networks have cooler segments, large tributaries, or lakes that might provide temporary escape from potentially less suitable temperatures, but 12 short networks in the Lower Fox and Middle Wisconsin rivers totaling 93.6 km are projected to have no potential thermal refugia. One possible adaptation to climate change could be to provide fish passage or translocation so that riverine Lake Sturgeon might have access to more thermally suitable habitats.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2012

A model for evaluating stream temperature response to climate change scenarios in Wisconsin

Global climate change is expected to alter temperature and flow regimes for streams in Wisconsin over the coming decades. Stream temperature will be influenced not only by the predicted increases in average air temperature, but also by changes in baseflow due to changes in precipitation patterns and amounts. In order to evaluate future stream temperature and flow regimes in Wisconsin, we have integrated two existing models in order to generate a water temperature time series at a regional scale for thousands of stream reaches where site-specific temperature observations do not exist. The approach uses the US Geological Survey (USGS) Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model, along with a recalibrated version of an existing artificial neural network (ANN) stream temperature model. The ANN model simulates stream temperatures on the basis of landscape variables such as land use and soil type, and also includes climate variables such as air temperature and precipitation amounts. The existing ANN model includes a landscape variable called DARCY designed to reflect the potential for groundwater recharge in the contributing area for a stream segment. SWB tracks soil-moisture and potential recharge at a daily time step, providing a way to link changing climate patterns and precipitation amounts over time to baseflow volumes, and presumably to stream temperatures. The recalibrated ANN incorporates SWB-derived estimates of potential recharge to supplement the static estimates of groundwater flow potential derived from a topographically based model (DARCY). SWB and the recalibrated ANN will be supplied with climate drivers from a suite of general circulation models and emissions scenarios, enabling resource managers to evaluate possible changes in stream temperature regimes for Wisconsin.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2011

Effects of dams in river networks on fish assemblages in non-impoundment sections of rivers in Michigan and Wisconsin, USA

Regional assessment of cumulative impacts of dams on riverine fish assemblages provides resource managers essential information for dam operation, potential dam removal, river health assessment and overall ecosystem management. Such an assessment is challenging because characteristics of fish assemblages are not only affected by dams, but also influenced by natural variation and human-induced modification (in addition to dams) in thermal and flow regimes, physicochemical habitats and biological assemblages. This study evaluated the impacts of dams on river fish assemblages in the non-impoundment sections of rivers in the states of Michigan and Wisconsin using multiple fish assemblage indicators and multiple approaches to distinguish the influences of dams from those of other natural and human-induced factors. We found that environmental factors that influence fish assemblages in addition to dams should be incorporated when evaluating regional effects of dams on fish assemblages. Without considering such co-influential factors, the evaluation is inadequate and potentially misleading. The role of dams alone in determining fish assemblages at a regional spatial scale is relatively small (explained less than 20% of variance) compared with the other environmental factors, such as river size, flow and thermal regimes and land uses jointly. However, our results do demonstrate that downstream and upstream dams can substantially modify fish assemblages in the non-impoundment sections of rivers. After excluding river size and land-use influences, our results clearly demonstrate that dams have significant impacts on fish biotic-integrity and habitat-and-social-preference indicators. The influences of the upstream dams, downstream dams, distance to dams, and dam density differ among the fish indicators, which have different implications for maintaining river biotic integrity, protecting biodiversity and managing fisheries.

Wisconsin and Michigan↗

USGS2010

Predicted effects of climate warming on the distribution of 50 stream fishes in Wisconsin, U.S.A.

Summer air and stream water temperatures are expected to rise in the state of Wisconsin, U.S.A., over the next 50 years. To assess potential climate warming effects on stream fishes, predictive models were developed for 50 common fish species using classification-tree analysis of 69 environmental variables in a geographic information system. Model accuracy was 56·0–93·5% in validation tests. Models were applied to all 86 898 km of stream in the state under four different climate scenarios: current conditions, limited climate warming (summer air temperatures increase 1° C and water 0·8° C), moderate warming (air 3° C and water 2·4° C) and major warming (air 5° C and water 4° C). With climate warming, 23 fishes were predicted to decline in distribution (three to extirpation under the major warming scenario), 23 to increase and four to have no change. Overall, declining species lost substantially more stream length than increasing species gained. All three cold-water and 16 cool-water fishes and four of 31 warm-water fishes were predicted to decline, four warm-water fishes to remain the same and 23 warm-water fishes to increase in distribution. Species changes were predicted to be most dramatic in small streams in northern Wisconsin that currently have cold to cool summer water temperatures and are dominated by cold-water and cool-water fishes, and least in larger and warmer streams and rivers in southern Wisconsin that are currently dominated by warm-water fishes. Results of this study suggest that even small increases in summer air and water temperatures owing to climate warming will have major effects on the distribution of stream fishes in Wisconsin.

Wisconsin↗

USGS1993

Surface-water hydrology and quality, and macroinvertebrate and smallmouth bass populations in four stream basins in southwestern Wisconsin, 1987-90

Data on streamflow, water quality, and macroinvertebrate and smallmouth bass (microptercus dolomieni) populations were collected from July 1987 through September 1990, in four streams in southwestern Wisconsin to determine the effect of surface-water hydrology and quality on populations of macroinvertebrates and smallmouth bass. The study was a joint project of the U.S. Geological Survey and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources. Drought conditions greatly affected streamflows in southwestern Wisconsin throughout much of the period of study. Precipitation in all four basins in 1988 and 1989 was 9.91 to12.41 inches less than 1951-80 normal precipitation of 32.88 inches. The lowest annual mean discharge was recorded in water year 1988 at all of the streamflow- gaging stations except at Rattlesnake Creek, where annual mean discharge was lowest in water year 1990. Overland-flow runoff during the reproductive period of smallmouth bass (mid-May to mid-July) was 0.02 inch in 1988 at the Sinsinawa River and Rattlesnake Creek. Overland-flow runoff in the Little Platte River and the Livingston Branch of the Pecatonica River also was low in 1988 (0.03 inch and 0.04 inch, respectively) during the reproductive period of smallmouth bass. The trend of low overland-flow runoff continued in 1989; in water year 1990, however, overland-flow runoff during the reproductive period of smallmouth bass was 1.38 inches at Livingston Branch of the Pecatonica River and 0.22 inch at Rattlesnake Creek. Turbidity ranged from 1.5 nephelometric turbidity units at Rattlesnake Creek to 3,700 nephelometric turbidity units at the Sinsinawa River. Suspended-solid concentrations ranged from 2 milligrams per liter at Rattlesnake Creek to a maximum 24,300 milligrams per liter at the Livingston Branch of the Pecatonica River. The high turbidities and suspended-solid concentrations, which occurred during storms, did not last for long periods of time and are not thought to have been harmful to the biota of the rivers. Un-ionized ammonia concentrations exceeded the State of Wisconsin, Department of Natural Resources' standard of 0.04 milligram per liter for warmwater streams at all four of the streams. The maximum concentration of un-ionized ammonia measured was 0.10 milligram per liter at Rattlesnake Creek and there was no discernible effects on smallmouth bass or macroinvertebrates. Dissolved-oxygen concentrations at all four study streams occasionally decreased to below or near the concentration of 1 milligram per liter considered necessary to sustain life of smallmouth bass. Two fish kills were documented as the result of low dissolved-oxygen concentrations. All of these episodes of low dissolved-oxygen concentrations occurred during or just after rainstorms and subsequent increasing streamflows. Samples of water-sediment mixture and bottom material were analyzed for pesticides commonly used in the basins. Samples from all of the stations had concentrations of herbicides that exceeded the analytical reporting limit. Water-sediment samples at the Sinsinawa River had the highest herbicide concentration. The concentration of metolachlor was the highest of the herbicides-- 110 micrograms per liter; concentrations of atrazine and cyanazine were next highest at 97 and 84 micrograms per liter, respectively. All of the water-sediment mixture samples had insecticide concentrations below the analytical reporting limit, with the exception of carbofuran. One water-sediment mixture sample collected at the Little Platte River had a carbofuran concentration of 0.44 microgram per liter. No pesticides were detected in the bottom-material samples collected at the four study streams. Richness of macroinvertebrate taxa did not differ substantially among the four streams during the study, but the abundances of several taxa differed significantly among streams. Livingston Branch of the Pecatonica River had comparatively few midges but many caddisflies, whereas Rattlesnake Creek had many non-insect taxa and relatively few caddisflies. The Little Platte River had consistently high numbers of caddisflies, mayflies, and riffle beetles. Macroinvertebrate-community composition, as measured by Bray-Curtis dissimilarity coefficients, varied considerably over time within and among the streams. The macroinvertebrate community composition of the Little Platte River changed very little during the winter of 1987-88 as compared to the other streams, but the community composition of the Livingston Branch of the Pecatonica River changed substantially. The communities of Rattlesnake Creek and Livingston Branch of the Pecatonica River became more similar to the community of the Little Platte River from fall 1987 through fall 1988, whereas the community in the Sinsinawa River remained distinct. Water quality, as estimated by biotic-index values, generally was better in the Little Platte River than in the other streams from fall 1987 through fall 1988. However, water quality appeared to have deteriorated (biotic-index values increased) in the Little Platte River during the winter of 1988-89. Water quality in the Livingston Branch of the Pecatonica River also deteriorated during the same period. The drought of 1988-89 and accompanying decrease in frequency of storms contributed to an uncharacteristically stable environment for macroinvertebrate development in most streams. Total taxa richness increased in three of the four streams. Total taxa richness did not increase in the Little Platte River, possibly because of moderate flooding that occurred prior to the spring 1989 sampling period or, more likely, because of changes in dissolved-oxygen concentrations. Although dissolved-oxygen concentrations were fairly similar in all streams, dissolved-oxygen concentrations were lower in 1989 in the Little Platte River than in other streams. The observed increase in biotic-index values in the Little Platte River during the spring of 1989 supports a decline in water quality. Smallmouth bass reproduction was related to precipitation and streamflow during the critical mid-May to mid-July reproductive period. Reproductive success was good (38-297 Age 0 smallmouth bass per acre) in 1988 and 1989 and poor (0-3 Age 0 smallmouth bass per acre) in 1987 and 1990. This pattern corresponded with total precipitation of less than 7 inches in May and June in 1988 and 1989 and greater than 7 inches in 1989 and 1990. In years when runoff exceeded 0.10 inch, only three or fewer Age 0 (smallmouth bass less than 1 year old) smallmouth bass per acre were caught in late summer to fall sampling surveys. In contrast, when overland runoff was less than 0.10 inch, 32 to 297 Age 0 smallmouth bass per acre were found in late summer or fall. The numbers of Age 0 smallmouth bass per acre were significantly different from each other at the 1 -percent probability level (p=0.0001). Smallmouth bass reproductive success indicated that smallmouth bass in these streams were extremely vulnerable to the amount of runoff during the early stage of their life. Low concentrations of dissolved oxygen constituted the most detrimental water-quality problem affecting smallmouth bass populations. Dissolved-oxygen concentrations were occasionally less than 3 milligrams per liter, a dissolved-oxygen concentration that may be detrimental to early-life stages of smallmouth bass in the streams; however, smallmouth bass were apparently able to withstand these low dissolved-oxygen concentrations and seem to have survived in some situations when dissolved-oxygen concentration decreased to1 milligram per liter.

Wisconsin↗