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John C. Schmidt

Publications and source records attributed to John C. Schmidt.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Future of the Colorado River phase 2: Integrated operation of the Powell/Grand Canyon/Mead segment for water supply, hydropower, and river ecosystems

State and federal agencies are negotiating water-supply agreements that may govern water supply and storage in the Colorado River Basin through 2046. Current operating policies in the Colorado River primarily focus on water supply implications with less focus on the potential effects to other resources. Models that forecast the response of multiple resources over the short- and long-term term to water supply decisions could lead to greater consideration of these resources in future water supply decision making. In this project, we developed a dynamic programming tool to identify potential release decisions that help maximize different management objectives under different scenarios for storing water in Lake Mead and Lake Powell in attempt to inform efforts to consider multiple resources. We ask, “ How can decisions under different reservoir storage scenarios affect river resource management objectives, what are the trade-offs among these objectives, and how can we consider more resources when making water supply decisions? ”.

Colorado River↗
USGS2026

Informing policy response to declining water supply in the Colorado River basin: Linking water supply management with outcomes for fish communities

Water-supply managers in the Colorado River Basin are tasked with balancing consumptive water use with natural water supply. Decisions associated with water-supply policy can include where and how much water consumption occurs, where water could be stored, and how to operate reservoirs. Water-supply decisions often affect other resources including energy production, recreation and aquatic ecosystems. The goal of this project was to model how different water supply management scenarios might affect riverine ecosystems with a specific focus on potential impacts on federally listed fish populations, including threatened humpback chub (Gila cypha) and endangered Colorado pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus lucius) and razorback sucker (Xyrauchen texanus). Threats to these endemic species include introduced non-native fish species that often become invasive, like smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu), and altered physical conditions that may favor these non-native fish species over the endemic fish species. Changes in how water supply may be managed in the Colorado River Basin can affect physical conditions in rivers by altering how much water flows through a particular river segment at a given time, by changing the extent of riverine ecosystems between reservoirs, and by determining the quality of water released from storage reservoirs with fixed release elevation (e.g., full reservoirs generally release colder water). To address our goal, we developed tools that coupled water storage models, river temperature models and fish population models to examine how different scenarios to operate Lake Mead, Lake Powell, and Flaming Gorge Reservoir, the three largest reservoirs in the watershed, may affect fish populations. We developed our work plan when available water supply was diminished. At the end of our project period (May 2022), Lake Powell and Lake Mead contained historically low water levels, and our models were being used in evaluating different options for operating Lake Powell by the Bureau of Reclamation and other stakeholders.

Arizona, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2025

Channel and floodplain cross-section and bed-elevation analyses of the Green River in Echo, Island, and Rainbow Parks, Dinosaur National Monument, Colorado and Utah

This report by the U.S. Geological Survey focuses on describing geomorphic changes in the alluvial segments of the Green River within Echo, Island, and Rainbow Parks of Dinosaur National Monument, between the 1990s and 2019. Substantial channel change occurred within these meandering alluvial segments following the construction and closure of Flaming Gorge Dam in 1962. Geomorphic analyses in the early 1990s documented this change, but variations in dam operations, climate, and the natural sand supply from the Yampa River have since occurred. It was unclear whether channel change within those meandering alluvial segments had continued since the early 1990s; hence, our study provides an update to previous work. This study used three primary methods to quantify the amount and style of channel change that occurred within those alluvial segments of the Green River: (1) digital aerial-photograph analyses, (2) surveys of alluvial topography in the 1990s and 2019 at fixed cross-section locations, and (3) surveys of channel bathymetry in 1998 and 2019. Our analyses show that channel narrowing has continued, with declines in channel width of 4 percent in Echo Park, 16 percent in Island Park, and 15 percent in Rainbow Park from 1993 through 2019. In 11 of the 15 cross sections examined, vertical accretion of sediment on the floodplain and lateral accretion of sediment on the channel margins led to net sediment deposition and a loss of cross-sectional area. Mean changes in bed elevations showed slight erosion; however, bed elevations were considered stable within the bounds of measurement uncertainty and annual variability within the study area. These results show that channel change has continued to occur in these alluvial segments of the Green River from 1993 through 2019, with the dominant changes including sediment deposition and channel narrowing. Although changes in the operations of Flaming Gorge Dam have occurred, these changes have had little effect on flood peak or duration in the segment of the Green River downstream from its confluence with the Yampa River. Instead, ongoing channel change is likely driven by the amount of sediment supplied from the Yampa River, the duration and magnitude of the combined annual spring snowmelt flood from both the Green River upstream from the Yampa River confluence and the Yampa River, and the capacity of this flood to convey the supplied sediment through these wider alluvial reaches.

Colorado, Utah↗
USGS2025

Reservoir operational strategies for sustainable sand management in the Colorado River

Climate change and increasing societal demands for water pose challenges for the management of dam-regulated rivers. Management decisions impact the environment of these rivers, creating the need to balance societal needs with environmental conservation. Here we present a modeling framework that optimizes resource benefits within imposed water use goals for the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, where sandbars are a valued natural feature. The current sand-management paradigm utilizes controlled dam-release floods to build and maintain sandbars without exhausting the limited sand supplied by tributaries downstream from Glen Canyon Dam, which blocks all sand supplied from upriver. High monthly releases outside of controlled floods erode sandbars and cause net sand export from Grand Canyon, reducing the sand available to build sandbars. Releases are high in some months owing to the need to adjust flows to meet annual delivery targets, which can be updated throughout the year. Here, we present alternative strategies for operations that avoid high releases, while meeting water storage and delivery goals. We test these strategies using a simplified reservoir model which accounts for forecast uncertainty. We show how these strategies affect sand mass balance and sandbar size using previously developed models. Strategies optimal for sustainable sandbar building maintained sufficient reservoir elevations for implementing controlled floods, avoided high monthly releases by relaxing annual release constraints, and implemented controlled floods in fall immediately following tributary sand inputs. Coordinated modeling of reservoir operations and environmental resources is valuable for managers seeking to balance societal and environmental needs in regulated rivers worldwide.

Arizona↗
USGS2025

Declining reservoir elevations following a two-decade drought increase water temperatures and non-native fish passage facilitating a downstream invasion

River ecosystems are threatened by interactions among river regulation, non-native species, and climate change. Water use has exceeded supply in USA’s Colorado River basin draining its two largest storage reservoirs (Lake Powell and Lake Mead). In 2022, Lake Powell began releasing water from its lower epilimnion into the Grand Canyon segment of the Colorado River, which (1) increased rates of fish passage from the reservoir through the dam and (2) created river temperatures suitable for establishment of non-native fishes. Subsequently, smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu) reproduced there for the first time. To assist managers concerned about this invasion, we developed models that (1) predicted propagule pressure at different reservoir elevations and (2) linked reservoir storage/operations, water temperatures, and population dynamics to forecast smallmouth bass population growth potential. Maintaining Lake Powell elevations above 1094 m (3590 ft) would likely minimize propagule pressure from the reservoir and create downstream conditions that minimize smallmouth bass population growth. Dam and reservoir management will likely be less effective for managing smallmouth bass if smallmouth bass become abundant in far downstream reaches.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗
USGS2023

The Colorado River water crisis: Its origin and the future

During much of the 21st century, natural runoff in the Colorado River basin has declined, while consumption has remained relatively constant, leading to historically low reservoir storage. Between January 2000 and April 2023, the amount of water stored in Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the two largest reservoirs in the United States, declined by 33.5 million acre feet (41.3 billion cubic meters). As of April 2023, total basin-wide storage was sufficient to support the 21st century average rate of basin-wide consumption for only 15 months. Runoff in spring 2023 is predicted to be large, providing a short-term reprieve. However, it will take four to five additional unusually wet years in succession to refill Lake Powell and Lake Mead if basin-wide water use remains unchanged. Increasing evapotranspiration and dry soils associated with global climate change makes such a scenario unlikely. To stabilize reservoir storage, basin-wide use needs to equal modern runoff. To recover reservoir storage, basin-wide use needs to decline even more. Based on 21st century average runoff, a 13%–20% decline in basin-wide use would allow for stabilization and some reservoir storage recovery. Future policy debate about reservoir operations will inevitably concern whether most, or all, reservoir storage should be in Lake Mead or in Lake Powell. The choice of one or the other will result in significantly different environmental and recreational outcomes for Glen Canyon and the Grand Canyon.

Arizona, Baja California, California, Colorado, Ne↗
USGS2022

Native fish need a natural flow regime

Water development has threatened the ecological integrity of riverine ecosystems. Increasing water demand, persistent drought, and climate change exacerbate the effects of habitat degradation and loss in altered systems such as the Colorado River basin. Today, biologists are challenged to identify management actions that benefit native fishes while not hindering water development or management. Herein, we discuss the importance of the natural flow regime for functioning riverine ecosystems and provide examples from four tributaries to the Green River, a major headwater branch of the Colorado River. These tributaries represent a gradient of impacts ranging from water abstraction to the point of complete seasonal desiccation to a relatively natural flow regime, and consequently have maintained different levels of instream habitat complexity and native fish persistence. Despite decades of management, endangered species lack self-sustaining populations and other native species have been extirpated from over half their ranges, which begs the question: can water development and fish conservation be balanced under current water laws and climate change-driven declines in runoff? Given the continued decline in freshwater biodiversity and abundance occurring across the globe, we contend that immediate designation of rivers with natural flow regimes as freshwater conservation areas will enhance native species recovery.

Arizona, Colorado, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2021

Water storage decisions will determine the distribution and persistence of imperiled river fishes

Managing the world’s freshwater supply to meet societal and environmental needs in a changing climate is one of the biggest challenges for the 21 st century. Dams provide water security, however, the allocation of dwindling water supply among reservoirs could exacerbate or ameliorate the effects of climate change on aquatic communities. Here, we show that the relative sensitivity of river thermal regimes to direct impacts of climate change and societal decisions concerning water storage vary substantially throughout a river basin. In the absence of interspecific interactions, future Colorado River temperatures would appear to benefit both endemic and nonnative fish species. However, endemic species are already declining or extirpated in locations where their ranges overlap with warmwater nonnatives and changes in water storage may lead to warming in some of the coolest portions of the river basin, facilitating further nonnative expansion. Integrating environmental considerations into ongoing water storage negotiations may lead to better resource outcomes than mitigating nonnative species impacts after the fact.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2020

Water temperature controls for regulated canyon-bound rivers

Many canyon‐bound rivers have been dammed and downstream flow and water temperatures modified. Climate change is expected to cause lower storage in reservoirs and warmer release temperatures, which may further alter downstream flow and thermal regimes. To anticipate potential future changes, we first need to understand the dominant heat transfer mechanisms in canyon‐bound river systems. Towards this end, we adapt a dynamic process‐based river routing and temperature model to account for complex shading and radiation characteristics found in canyon‐bound rivers. We apply the model to a 362 km segment of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National Park, USA to simulate temperature over an 18‐year period. Extensive temperature and flow datasets from within the canyon were used to assess model performance. At the most downstream gaging location, root mean square errors of hourly flow routing and temperature predictions were 11.5 m 3 /s and 0.93 °C, respectively. We found that heat fluxes controlling temperatures were highly variable over space and time, primarily due to shortwave radiation dynamics and hydropeaking flow conditions. Additionally, the large differences between air and water temperature during summer periods resulted in high sensible and latent heat fluxes. Sensitivity analyses indicate that reservoir release temperatures are most influential above the RM88 gage (141 kilometers below Glen Canyon Dam), while a combination of discharge, shortwave radiation, and air temperature become more important farther downstream. This study illustrates the importance of understanding the spatial and temporal variability of topographic shading when predicting water temperatures in canyon‐bound rivers.

Colorado↗
USGS2020

Does channel narrowing by floodplain growth necessarily indicate sediment surplus? Lessons from sediment‐transport analyses in the Green and Colorado rivers, Canyonlands, Utah

Analyses of suspended sediment transport provide valuable insight into the role that sediment supply plays in causing geomorphic change. The sediment supply within a river system evolves depending on the discharge, flood frequency and duration, changes in sediment input, and ecohydraulic conditions that modify sediment transport processes. Changes in supply can be evaluated through analyses of coupled changes in suspended sediment concentration and grain size. The concentration of sand in transport in the Green and Colorado Rivers is most strongly controlled by discharge and the bed sand grain size distribution. Since the 1950s, sand loads have decreased in response to declines in peak discharge in the Green River and coarsening of the bed sand in the Colorado River. However, changes in the bed sand grain size distribution are associated with large changes in suspended sand concentration in both rivers; concentration varies by a factor of ~3 in the Green River and a factor of ~8 in the Colorado River, depending on the bed sand grain size distribution. Analyses of hysteresis in suspended sediment measurements show that sediment depletion during annual floods is most strongly controlled by flood duration, with peak discharge being nearly equally important in the Green River. Despite channel narrowing in both rivers, periods of bed sand coarsening and sediment depletion during annual floods indicate that these rivers are not necessarily in sediment surplus. Channel narrowing appears to be strongly controlled by short‐term declines in flood magnitude and the ecohydraulic effects of vegetation and may not be indicative of the long‐term sediment budget.

Utah↗
USGS2020

Causes of variability in suspended‐sand concentration evaluated using measurements in the Colorado River in Grand Canyon

Rivers commonly exhibit substantial variability in suspended‐sand concentration, even at constant water discharge. Here we derive an approach for evaluating how much of this variability arises from mean bed‐sand grain size. We apply this approach to the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, where discharge‐independent concentration of suspended sand varies by more than a factor of 23 ( N = 1.4 × 10 6 ). Theory predicts that where concentration is controlled by bed‐sand grain size, concentration and grain size in suspension will be inversely correlated (i.e., coarsening of the bed causes suspended sand to become coarser in grain size and lower in concentration). Although the observed correlation is negative, riverbed grain size accounts for only 40% of the variability in concentration. The residuals vary by an order of magnitude; they arise from other processes, such as changes in topography or distribution of sand that cause shear stress to change at constant discharge, changes in the fine tail of bed‐sand grain sizes or changing bedforms. Both bed sand and the other factors influence concentration for durations from less than 1 day to several years. Predictions of concentration based on bed‐sand grain size ( N = 4 × 10 4 ) are less accurate than predictions based on suspended‐sand grain size, probably because suspended sand is a natural integrator of sand‐transporting processes, giving more weight to those areas of the bed that exchange more sand with the flow. Although the causes of variability vary from one river to another, the approach illustrated here is applicable to any river in which concentration varies at constant water discharge.

Arizona↗
USGS2020

Measuring channel planform change from image time series: A generalizable, spatially distributed, probabilistic method for quantifying uncertainty

Channels change in response to natural or anthropogenic fluctuations in streamflow and/or sediment supply and measurements of channel change are critical to many river management applications. Whereas repeated field surveys are costly and time‐consuming, remote sensing can be used to detect channel change at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Repeat images have been widely used to measure long‐term channel change, but these measurements are only significant if the magnitude of change exceeds the uncertainty. Existing methods for characterizing uncertainty have two important limitations. First, while the use of a spatially variable image co‐registration error avoids the assumption that errors are spatially uniform, this type of error, as originally formulated, can only be applied to linear channel adjustments, which provide less information on channel change than polygons of erosion and deposition. Second, previous methods use a level‐of‐detection (LoD) threshold to remove non‐significant measurements, which is problematic because real changes that occurred but were smaller than the LoD threshold would be removed. In this study, we present a new method of quantifying uncertainty associated with channel change based on probabilistic, spatially varying estimates of co‐registration error and digitization uncertainty that obviates a LoD threshold. The spatially distributed probabilistic (SDP) method can be applied to both linear channel adjustments and polygons of erosion and deposition, making this the first uncertainty method generalizable to all metrics of channel change. Using a case study from the Yampa River, Colorado, we show that the SDP method reduced the magnitude of uncertainty and enabled us to detect smaller channel changes as significant. Additionally, the distributional information provided by the SDP method allowed us to report the magnitude of channel change with an appropriate level of confidence in cases where a simple LoD approach yielded an indeterminate result.

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms↗
USGS2020

Channel narrowing by inset floodplain formation of the lower Green River in the Canyonlands region, Utah

The lower Green River episodically narrowed between the mid-1930s and present day through deposition of new floodplains within a wider channel that had been established and/or maintained during the early twentieth century pluvial period. Comparison of air photos spanning a 74-yr period (1940−2014) and covering a 61 km study area shows that the channel narrowed by 12% from 138 ± 3.4 m to 122 ± 2.1 m. Stratigraphic and sedimentologic analysis and tree ring dating of a floodplain trench corroborates the air photo analysis and suggests that the initial phase of floodplain formation began by the mid-1930s, approximately the same time that the flow regime decreased in total annual and peak annual flow. Tamarisk, a nonnative shrub, began to establish in the 1930s as well. Narrowing from the 1940s to the mid-1980s was insignificant, because floodplain formation was approximately matched by bank erosion. Air photo analysis demonstrates that the most significant episode of narrowing was underway by the late 1980s, and analysis of the trench shows that floodplain formation had begun in the mid-1980s during a multi-year period of low peak annual flow. Air photo analysis shows that mean channel width decreased by ∼7% between 1993 and 2009. A new phase of narrowing may have begun in 2003, based on evidence in the trench. Comparison of field surveys made in 1998 and 2015 in an 8.5 km reach near Fort Bottom suggests that narrowing continues and demonstrates that new floodplain formation has been a very small proportion of the total annual fine sediment flux of the Green River. Vertical accretion of new floodplains near Fort Bottom averaged 2.4 m between 1998 and 2015 but only accounted for ∼1.5% of the estimated fine sediment flux during that period. Flood control by Flaming Gorge Dam after 1962 significantly influenced flow regime, reducing the magnitude of the annual snowmelt flood and increasing the magnitude of base flows. Though narrowing was initiated by changes in flow regime, native and nonnative riparian vegetation promoted floodplain formation and channel narrowing especially through establishment on channel bars and incipient floodplains during years of small annual floods.

Utah↗
USGS2020

The roles of flood magnitude and duration in controlling channel width and complexity on the Green River in Canyonlands, Utah, USA

Predictions of river channel adjustment to changes in streamflow regime based on relations between mean channel characteristics and mean flood magnitude can be useful to evaluate average channel response. However, because these relations assume equilibrium sediment transport, their applicability to cases where streamflow and sediment transport are decoupled may be limited. These general relations also lack the specificity that is required to connect specific characteristics of the streamflow and sediment regime with the dynamics of channel morphological change that create channel complexity, which is often of ecological interest. We integrate historical records of channel change, observations of scour and fill during a snowmelt flood, measurements of sediment transport, and predictions from a two-dimensional streamflow model to describe how annual peak flow magnitude and peak-flow duration interact with the upstream sediment supply to control channel form for a 15-km study reach on the regulated Green River in Canyonlands National Park, Utah. Two major decadal-scale episodes of channel narrowing have occurred within the study area. For each of these episodes, the reduction in average channel width was consistent with the change predicted by hydraulic geometry relations as a function of average flood magnitude. However, channel narrowing occurred during periods of exceptionally low annual floods. The most recent episode of channel narrowing occurred between 1988 and 2009, during low-flow cycles when the 5-yr mean peak flow was less than 60% of the long-term (1959–2016) mean peak flow. These findings, together with findings from previous studies, demonstrate that decreases in peak-flow magnitude caused by streamflow regulation, climate change, or a combination of those factors have driven episodes of channel narrowing on the Green River. Observations of streamflow, sediment-transport, and morphologic change coupled with predictions from a two-dimensional streamflow model indicate that peak flow magnitudes of at least 75% of the long-term mean peak flow are required to transport bed-material sand in suspension in all regions of the multi-thread channel and that the ~2-month duration of the snowmelt flood played an important role in creating conditions necessary to maintain channel conveyance. These results indicate that detailed characterizations of channel response such as these are needed to predict how river channels will respond to changes in streamflow regime that affect annual peak flow magnitude and duration.

Utah↗
USGS2019

Incorporating social-ecological considerations into basin-wide responses to climate change in the Colorado River Basin

During the last 50 years, construction of dams in the western United States declined. This is partly because of increasing recognition of diverse and unintended social-ecological consequences of dams. Today, resource managers are recognizing the wide array of tradeoffs and are including a more diverse group of stakeholders in decision making for individual dams. Yet decisions at the regional scale maintain a focus on a limited number of resources and objectives, leading to inefficient and inequitable outcomes. Social-ecological changes compounded by climate change challenge this management paradigm. Increasing water demands for humans and the environment and renewed interest in hydropower present opportunities for operations that include climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies while considering tradeoffs and equitable responses at the regional scale.

Colorado River Basin↗
USGS2019

Interpreting flux-based sediment budgets in a habitat context: Linking precise temporal-resolution measurements of sediment flux to spatially robust characterization of channel change

Continuous measurements of sediment transport at reach-bracketing gaging stations allow for the construction of continuous mass-balance sediment budgets for the intervening reach. Although these budgets identify periods of sediment surplus (net deposition) or sediment deficit (net erosion), such analyses cannot identify the locations within the reach where channel change occurs. Because channel change and associated changes in habitat are of greater interest to river managers than the precise value of reach-scale loss or accumulation of sediment, it is important to explicitly link reach-scale changes in sediment mass balance to field measurements of channel change. In this study we will evaluate the relationship between the magnitude of the sediment mass imbalance measured by acoustic-Doppler profilers and the resulting channel change on the Yampa River in Dinosaur National Monument.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2018

Long-term evolution of sand transport through a river network: Relative influences of a dam versus natural changes in grain size from sand waves

Temporal and spatial nonuniformity in supplies of water and sand in a river network leads to sand transport that is in local disequilibrium with the upstream sand supply. In such river networks, sand is transported downstream as elongating waves in which coupled changes in grain size and transport occur. Depending on the magnitude of each sand‐supplying event and the interval between such events, changes in bed‐sand grain size associated with sand‐wave passage may more strongly regulate sand transport than do changes in water discharge. When sand transport is controlled more by episodic resupply of sand than by discharge, upstream dam construction may exacerbate or mitigate sand‐transport disequilibria, thus leading to complicated and difficult‐to‐predict patterns of deposition and erosion. We analyzed all historical sediment‐transport data and embarked on a 4‐year program of continuous sediment‐transport measurements to describe disequilibrium sand transport in a river network. Results indicate that sand transport in long river segments can evolve over ≥50‐year timescales following rare large sand‐supplying events. These natural changes in sand transport in distal downstream river segments can be larger than those caused by an upstream dam. Because there is no way to know a priori whether sand transport in a river has changed in response to changes in the upstream sand supply, contemporary continuous measurements of sand transport are required for accurate sand loads and budgeting. Analysis of only historical sediment‐transport measurements, as is common in the literature, may lead to incorrect conclusions with respect to current or future sediment‐transport conditions.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface↗