John Battles | Geology Reports

USGS2014

Reconstructing disturbances and their biogeochemical consequences over multiple timescales

Ongoing changes in disturbance regimes are predicted to cause acute changes in ecosystem structure and function in the coming decades, but many aspects of these predictions are uncertain. A key challenge is to improve the predictability of postdisturbance biogeochemical trajectories at the ecosystem level. Ecosystem ecologists and paleoecologists have generated complementary data sets about disturbance (type, severity, frequency) and ecosystem response (net primary productivity, nutrient cycling) spanning decadal to millennial timescales. Here, we take the first steps toward a full integration of these data sets by reviewing how disturbances are reconstructed using dendrochronological and sedimentary archives and by summarizing the conceptual frameworks for carbon, nitrogen, and hydrologic responses to disturbances. Key research priorities include further development of paleoecological techniques that reconstruct both disturbances and terrestrial ecosystem dynamics. In addition, mechanistic detail from disturbance experiments, long-term observations, and chronosequences can help increase the understanding of ecosystem resilience.

BioScience↗

USGS2008

Spatial elements of mortality risk in old-growth forests

For many species of long-lived organisms, such as trees, survival appears to be the most critical vital rate affecting population persistence. However, methods commonly used to quantify tree death, such as relating tree mortality risk solely to diameter growth, almost certainly do not account for important spatial processes. Our goal in this study was to detect and, if present, to quantify the relevance of such processes. For this purpose, we examined purely spatial aspects of mortality for four species, Abies concolor , Abies magnifica , Calocedrus decurrens , and Pinus lambertiana , in an old-growth conifer forest in the Sierra Nevada of California, USA. The analysis was performed using data from nine fully mapped long-term monitoring plots. In three cases, the results unequivocally supported the inclusion of spatial information in models used to predict mortality. For Abies concolor , our results suggested that growth rate may not always adequately capture increased mortality risk due to competition. We also found evidence of a facilitative effect for this species, with mortality risk decreasing with proximity to conspecific neighbors. For Pinus lambertiana , mortality risk increased with density of conspecific neighbors, in keeping with a mechanism of increased pathogen or insect pressure (i.e., a Janzen-Connell type effect). Finally, we found that models estimating risk of being crushed were strongly improved by the inclusion of a simple index of spatial proximity. Not only did spatial indices improve models, those improvements were relevant for mortality prediction. For P. lambertiana , spatial factors were important for estimation of mortality risk regardless of growth rate. For A. concolor , although most of the population fell within spatial conditions in which mortality risk was well described by growth, trees that died occurred outside those conditions in a disproportionate fashion. Furthermore, as stands of A. concolor become increasingly dense, such spatial factors are likely to become increasingly important. In general, models that fail to account for spatial pattern are at risk of failure as conditions change.

Ecology↗