Geology topics

John B. Bradford

Publications and source records attributed to John B. Bradford.

At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources

USGS2018

Life history characteristics may be as important as climate projections for defining range shifts: An example for common tree species in the intermountain western US

Aim Predictions of future suitable habitat for plant species with climate change are known to be affected by uncertainty associated with statistical approaches, climate models and occurrence records. However, life history characteristics related to dispersal and establishment processes as well as sensitivity to barriers created by land‐use may also play important roles in shaping future distributions with climate change. We compared the uncertainty in predicted distributions associated with climate projections to uncertainty associated with species interactions related to dispersal and establishment and land‐use barriers with four common animal‐dispersed tree species in pinyon–juniper woodlands in the western United States, a region experiencing increasing fragmentation due to land‐use. Location Western USA. Methods We compared the effects of life history characteristics related to species interactions (long‐distance dispersal and facilitation), land‐use fragmentation and variation in climate projections on species distributions with climate change using a simulation model. We evaluated the impacts of these factors on three characteristics of species distributions, area occupied, range size, and distance between patches, across four 30‐year intervals centred on 2020, 2040, 2060 and 2080. Results We found that uncertainty associated with climate projections and the potential effects of facilitation on establishment had the greatest impact in distribution characteristics. The effects of all factors varied by species, despite their overlapping initial distributions and relatively similar dispersal traits, highlighting the impact of life history characteristics on model outcomes. Main conclusions These results suggest that assessments of species future range shifts and vulnerability to climate change should incorporate land‐use barriers and life history traits related to dispersal and establishment, particularly for species with strong facilitative interactions.

Diversity and Distributions↗

USGS2017

Forest floor and mineral soil respiration rates in a northern Minnesota red pine chronosequence

We measured total soil CO 2 efflux (R S ) and efflux from the forest floor layers (R FF ) in red pine ( Pinus resinosa Ait.) stands of different ages to examine relationships between stand age and belowground C cycling. Soil temperature and R S were often lower in a 31-year-old stand (Y31) than in 9-year-old (Y9), 61-year-old (Y61), or 123-year-old (Y123) stands. This pattern was most apparent during warm summer months, but there were no consistent differences in R FF among different-aged stands. R FF represented an average of 4–13% of total soil respiration, and forest floor removal increased moisture content in the mineral soil. We found no evidence of an age effect on the temperature sensitivity of R S , but respiration rates in Y61 and Y123 were less sensitive to low soil moisture than R S in Y9 and Y31. Our results suggest that soil respiration’s sensitivity to soil moisture may change more over the course of stand development than its sensitivity to soil temperature in red pine, and that management activities that alter landscape-scale age distributions in red pine forests could have significant impacts on rates of soil CO 2 efflux from this forest type.

Forests↗

USGS2017

Future soil moisture and temperature extremes imply expanding suitability for rainfed agriculture in temperate drylands

The distribution of rainfed agriculture is expected to respond to climate change and human population growth. However, conditions that support rainfed agriculture are driven by interactions among climate, including climate extremes, and soil moisture availability that have not been well defined. In the temperate regions that support much of the world’s agriculture, these interactions are complicated by seasonal temperature fluctuations that can decouple climate and soil moisture. Here, we show that suitability to support rainfed agriculture can be effectively represented by the interactive effects of just two variables: suitability increases where warm conditions occur with wet soil, and suitability decreases with extreme high temperatures. 21st century projections based on ecohydrological modeling of downscaled climate forecasts imply geographic shifts and overall increases in the area suitable for rainfed agriculture in temperate regions, especially at high latitudes, and pronounced, albeit less widespread, declines in suitable areas in low latitude drylands, especially in Europe. These results quantify the integrative direct and indirect impact of rising temperatures on rainfed agriculture.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2017

Topographic, edaphic, and vegetative controls on plant-available water

Soil moisture varies within landscapes in response to vegetative, physiographic, and climatic drivers, which makes quantifying soil moisture over time and space difficult. Nevertheless, understanding soil moisture dynamics for different ecosystems is critical, as the amount of water in a soil determines a myriad ecosystem services and processes such as net primary productivity, runoff, microbial decomposition, and soil fertility. We investigated the patterns and variability in in situ soil moisture measurements converted to plant-available water across time and space under different vegetative cover types and topographic positions at the Marcell Experimental Forest (Minnesota, USA). From 0 – 228.6 cm soil depth, plant-available water was significantly higher under the hardwoods (12%), followed by the aspen (8%) and red pine (5%) cover types. Across the same soil depth, toeslopes were wetter (mean plant-available water = 10%) than ridges and backslopes (mean plant-available water was 8%), although these differences were not statistically significant ( p < 0.05). Using a mixed model of fixed and random effects, we found that cover type, soil texture, and time were related to plant-available water and that topography was not significantly related to plant-available water within this low-relief landscape. Additionally, during the three-year monitoring period, red pine and quaking aspen sites experienced plant-available water levels that may be considered limiting to plant growth and function. Given that increasing temperatures and more erratic precipitation patterns associated with climate change may result in decreased soil moisture in this region, these species may be sensitive and vulnerable to future shifts in climate.

Ecohydrology↗

USGS2017

Long-term trends in restoration and associated land treatments in the southwestern United States

Restoration treatments, such as revegetation with seeding or invasive species removal, have been applied on U.S. public lands for decades. Temporal trends in these management actions have not been extensively summarized previously, particularly in the southwestern United States where invasive plant species, drought, and fire have altered dryland ecosystems. We assessed long-term (1940–2010) trends in restoration using approximately 4,000 vegetation treatments conducted on Bureau of Land Management lands across the southwestern United States. We found that since 1940, the proportions of seeding and vegetation/soil manipulation (e.g. vegetation removal or plowing) treatments have declined, while the proportions of prescribed burn and invasive species treatments have increased. Treatments in pinyon-juniper and big sagebrush communities declined in comparison to treatments in desert scrub, creosote bush, and riparian woodland communities. Restoration-focused treatment objectives increased relative to resource extraction objectives. Species richness and proportion of native species used in seeding treatments also increased. Inflation-adjusted costs per area rose 750% for vegetation/soil manipulation, 600% for seeding, and 400% for prescribed burn treatments in the decades from 1981 to 2010. Seeding treatments were implemented in warmer and drier years when compared to the climate conditions of the entire study period and warmer and wetter years relative to several years before and after the treatment. These results suggest that treatments over a 70-year period on public lands in the southwestern United States are shifting toward restoration practices that are increasingly large, expensive, and related to fire and invasive species control.

Restoration Ecology↗

USGS2017

Ecohydrological role of biological soil crusts across a gradient in levels of development

Though biological soil crusts (biocrusts) form abundant covers in arid and semiarid regions, their competing effects on soil hydrologic conditions are rarely accounted for in models. This study presents the modification of a soil water balance model to account for the presence of biocrusts at different levels of development (LOD) and their impact on one-dimensional hydrologic processes during warm and cold seasons. The model is developed, tested, and applied to study the hydrologic controls of biocrusts in context of a long-term manipulative experiment equipped with meteorological and soil moisture measurements in a Colorado Plateau ecosystem near Moab, Utah. The climate manipulation treatments resulted in distinct biocrust communities, and model performance with respect to soil moisture was assessed in experimental plots with varying LOD as quantified through a field-based roughness index ( RI ). Model calibration and testing yielded excellent comparisons to observations and smooth variations of biocrust parameters with RI approximated through simple regressions. The model was then used to quantify how LOD affects soil infiltration, evapotranspiration, and runoff under calibrated conditions and in simulation experiments with gradual modifications in biocrust porosity and hydraulic conductivity. Simulation results show that highly developed biocrusts modulate soil moisture nonlinearly with LOD by altering soil infiltration and buffering against evapotranspiration losses, with small impacts on runoff. The nonlinear and threshold variations of the soil water balance in the presence of biocrusts of varying LOD helps explain conflicting outcomes of various field studies and sheds light on the ecohydrological role of biocrusts in arid and semiarid ecosystems.

Utah↗

USGS2017

Reclamation after oil and gas development does not speed up succession or plant community recovery in big sagebrush ecosystems in Wyoming

Article for intended outlet: Restoration Ecology. Abstract: Reclamation is an application of treatment(s) following a disturbance to promote succession and accelerate the return of target conditions. Previous studies have framed reclamation in the context of succession by studying its effectiveness in re-establishing late-successional plant communities. Re-establishment of these plant communities is especially important and potentially challenging in regions such as drylands and shrub steppe ecosystems where succession proceeds slowly. Dryland shrub steppe ecosystems are frequently associated with areas rich in fossil-fuel energy sources, and as such the need for effective reclamation after disturbance from fossil-fuel-related energy development is great. Past research in this field has focused primarily on coal mines; few researchers have studied reclamation after oil and gas development. To address this research gap and to better understand the effect of reclamation on rates of succession in dryland shrub steppe ecosystems, we sampled oil and gas wellpads and adjacent undisturbed big sagebrush plant communities in Wyoming, USA and quantified the extent of recovery for major functional groups on reclaimed and unreclaimed (recovered via natural succession) wellpads relative to the undisturbed plant community. Reclamation increased the rate of recovery for all forb and grass species as a group and for perennial grasses, but did not affect other functional groups. Rather, analyses comparing recovery to environmental variables and time since wellpad abandonment showed that recovery of other groups were affected primarily by soil texture and time since wellpad abandonment. This is consistent with studies in other ecosystems where reclamation has been implemented, suggesting that reclamation may not help re-establish late-successional plant communities more quickly than they would re-establish naturally.

Wyoming↗

USGS2017

Competition amplifies drought stress in forests across broad climatic and compositional gradients

Forests around the world are experiencing increasingly severe droughts and elevated competitive intensity due to increased tree density. However, the influence of interactions between drought and competition on forest growth remains poorly understood. Using a unique dataset of stand-scale dendrochronology sampled from 6405 trees, we quantified how annual growth of entire tree populations responds to drought and competition in eight, long-term (multi-decadal), experiments with replicated levels of density (e.g., competitive intensity) arrayed across a broad climatic and compositional gradient. Forest growth (cumulative individual tree growth within a stand) declined during drought, especially during more severe drought in drier climates. Forest growth declines were exacerbated by high density at all sites but one, particularly during periods of more severe drought. Surprisingly, the influence of forest density was persistent overall, but these density impacts were greater in the humid sites than in more arid sites. Significant density impacts occurred during periods of more extreme drought, and during warmer temperatures in the semi-arid sites but during periods of cooler temperatures in the humid sites. Because competition has a consistent influence over growth response to drought, maintaining forests at lower density may enhance resilience to drought in all climates.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2017

Climate and soil texture influence patterns of forb species richness and composition in big sagebrush plant communities across their spatial extent in the western US

Article for outlet: Plant Ecology. Abstract: Big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) plant communities are widespread non-forested drylands in western North American and similar to all shrub steppe ecosystems world-wide are composed of a shrub overstory layer and a forb and graminoid understory layer. Forbs account for the majority of plant species diversity in big sagebrush plant communities and are important for ecosystem function. Few studies have explored the geographic patterns of forb species richness and composition and their relationships with environmental variables in these communities. Our objectives were to examine the small and large-scale spatial patterns in forb species richness and composition and the influence of environmental variables. We sampled forb species richness and composition along transects at 15 field sites in Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming, built species-area relationships to quantify differences in forb species richness at sites, and used Principal Components Analysis and nonmetric multidimensional scaling to identify relationships among environmental variables and forb species richness and composition. We found that species richness was most strongly correlated with soil texture, while species composition was most related to climate. The combination of climate and soil texture influences water availability, with important consequences for forb species richness and composition, which suggests climate-change induced modification of soil water availability may have important implications for plant species diversity in the future. Our paper is the first to our knowledge to examine forb biodiversity patterns in big sagebrush ecosystems in relation to environmental factors across the big sagebrush region.

Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Wy↗

USGS2017

Climate change may restrict dryland forest regeneration in the 21st century

The persistence and geographic expansion of dryland forests in the 21st century will be influenced by how climate change supports the demographic processes associated with tree regeneration. Yet, the way that climate change may alter regeneration is unclear. We developed a quantitative framework that estimates forest regeneration potential (RP) as a function of key environmental conditions for ponderosa pine, a key dryland forest species. We integrated meteorological data and climate projections for 47 ponderosa pine forest sites across the western United States, and evaluated RP using an ecosystem water balance model. Our primary goal was to contrast conditions supporting regeneration among historical, mid-21st century and late-21st century time frames. Future climatic conditions supported 50% higher RP in 2020–2059 relative to 1910–2014. As temperatures increased more substantially in 2060–2099, seedling survival decreased, RP declined by 50%, and the frequency of years with very low RP increased from 25% to 58%. Thus, climate change may initially support higher RP and increase the likelihood of successful regeneration events, yet will ultimately reduce average RP and the frequency of years with moderate climate support of regeneration. Our results suggest that climate change alone may begin to restrict the persistence and expansion of dryland forests by limiting seedling survival in the late 21st century.

Ecology↗

USGS2017

Potential human impacts of overlapping land-use and climate in a sensitive dryland: a case study of the Colorado Plateau, USA

Climate and land-use interactions are likely to affect future environmental and socioeconomic conditions in drylands, which tend to be limited by water resources and prone to land degradation. We characterized the potential for interactions between land-use types and land-use and climate change in a model dryland system, the Colorado Plateau, a region with a history of climatic variability and land-use change. We analyzed the spatial and temporal trends in aridification, land-use, and recreation at the county and 10 km2 grid scales. Our results show that oil and gas development and recreation may interact due to increasing trends and overlapping areas of high intensity. Projections suggest that aridification will impact all vegetation classes, with some of the highest proportional change in the south-east. The results suggest that the rate of change and spatial pattern of land-use in the future may differ from past patterns in land-use scale and intensity.

Colorado↗

USGS2017

Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics

Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics—changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly sensitive to climate extremes during periods of high stem density following major regeneration events when average inter-tree competition was high. Results suggest the resistance and resilience of forest growth to climate extremes can be increased through management steps such as thinning to reduce competition during early stages of stand development and small-group selection harvests to maintain forest structures characteristic of older, mature stands.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

USGS2017

Climate change-induced vegetation shifts lead to more ecological droughts despite projected rainfall increases in many global temperate drylands

Drylands occur world-wide and are particularly vulnerable to climate change since dryland ecosystems depend directly on soil water availability that may become increasingly limited as temperatures rise. Climate change will both directly impact soil water availability, and also change plant biomass, with resulting indirect feedbacks on soil moisture. Thus, the net impact of direct and indirect climate change effects on soil moisture requires better understanding. We used the ecohydrological simulation model SOILWAT at sites from temperate dryland ecosystems around the globe to disentangle the contributions of direct climate change effects and of additional indirect, climate change-induced changes in vegetation on soil water availability. We simulated current and future climate conditions projected by 16 GCMs under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the end of the century. We determined shifts in water availability due to climate change alone and due to combined changes of climate and the growth form and biomass of vegetation. Vegetation change will mostly exacerbate low soil water availability in regions already expected to suffer from negative direct impacts of climate change (with the two RCP scenarios giving us qualitatively similar effects). By contrast, in regions that will likely experience increased water availability due to climate change alone, vegetation changes will counteract these increases due to increased water losses by interception. In only a small minority of locations, climate change induced vegetation changes may lead to a net increase in water availability. These results suggest that changes in vegetation in response to climate change may exacerbate drought conditions and may dampen the effects of increased precipitation, i.e. leading to more ecological droughts despite higher precipitation in some regions. Our results underscore the value of considering indirect effects of climate change on vegetation when assessing future soil moisture conditions in water-limited ecosystems.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2017

Climate change reduces extent of temperate drylands and intensifies drought in deep soils

Drylands cover 40% of the global terrestrial surface and provide important ecosystem services. While drylands as a whole are expected to increase in extent and aridity in coming decades, temperature and precipitation forecasts vary by latitude and geographic region suggesting different trajectories for tropical, subtropical, and temperate drylands. Uncertainty in the future of tropical and subtropical drylands is well constrained, whereas soil moisture and ecological droughts, which drive vegetation productivity and composition, remain poorly understood in temperate drylands. Here we show that, over the twenty first century, temperate drylands may contract by a third, primarily converting to subtropical drylands, and that deep soil layers could be increasingly dry during the growing season. These changes imply major shifts in vegetation and ecosystem service delivery. Our results illustrate the importance of appropriate drought measures and, as a global study that focuses on temperate drylands, highlight a distinct fate for these highly populated areas.

Nature Communications↗

USGS2017

Density-dependent vulnerability of forest ecosystems to drought

1. Climate models predict increasing drought intensity and frequency for many regions, which may have negative consequences for tree recruitment, growth and mortality, as well as forest ecosystem services. Furthermore, practical strategies for minimizing vulnerability to drought are limited. Tree population density, a metric of tree abundance in a given area, is a primary driver of competitive intensity among trees, which influences tree growth and mortality. Manipulating tree population density may be a mechanism for moderating drought-induced stress and growth reductions, although the relationship between tree population density and tree drought vulnerability remains poorly quantified, especially across climatic gradients. 2. In this study, we examined three long-term forest ecosystem experiments in two widely distributed North American pine species, ponderosa pine Pinus ponderosa (Lawson & C. Lawson) and red pine Pinus resinosa (Aiton), to better elucidate the relationship between tree population density, growth and drought. These experiments span a broad latitude and aridity range and include tree population density treatments that have been purposefully maintained for several decades. We investigated how tree population density influenced resistance (growth during drought) and resilience (growth after drought compared to pre-drought growth) of stand-level growth during and after documented drought events. 3. Our results show that relative tree population density was negatively related to drought resistance and resilience, indicating that trees growing at lower densities were less vulnerable to drought. This result was apparent in all three forest ecosystems, and was consistent across species, stand age and drought intensity. 4. Synthesis and applications . Our results highlighted that managing pine forest ecosystems at low tree population density represents a promising adaptive strategy for reducing the adverse impacts of drought on forest growth in coming decades. Nonetheless, the broader applicability of our findings to other types of forest ecosystems merits additional investigation.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2017

Aridity increases below-ground niche breadth in grass communities

Aridity is an important environmental filter in the assembly of plant communities worldwide. The extent to which root traits mediate responses to aridity, and how they are coordinated with leaf traits, remains unclear. Here, we measured variation in root tissue density (RTD), specific root length (SRL), specific leaf area (SLA), and seed size within and among thirty perennial grass communities distributed along an aridity gradient spanning 190–540 mm of climatic water deficit (potential minus actual evapotranspiration). We tested the hypotheses that traits exhibited coordinated variation (1) among species, as well as (2) among communities varying in aridity, and (3) functional diversity within communities declines with increasing aridity, consistent with the “stress-dominance” hypothesis. Across communities, SLA and RTD exhibited a coordinated response to aridity, shifting toward more conservative (lower SLA, higher RTD) functional strategies with increasing aridity. The response of SRL to aridity was more idiosyncratic and was independent of variation in SLA and RTD. Contrary to the stress-dominance hypothesis, the diversity of SRL values within communities increased with aridity, while none of the other traits exhibited significant diversity responses. These results are consistent with other studies that have found SRL to be independent of an SLA–RTD axis of functional variation and suggest that the dynamic nature of soil moisture in arid environments may facilitate a wider array of resource capture strategies associated with variation in SRL.

Plant Ecology↗

USGS2017

Influence of repeated prescribed fire on tree growth and mortality in Pinus resinosa forests, northern Minnesota

Prescribed fire is widely used for ecological restoration and fuel reduction in fire-dependent ecosystems, most of which are also prone to drought. Despite the importance of drought in fire-adapted forests, little is known about cumulative effects of repeated prescribed burning on tree growth and related response to drought. Using dendrochronological data in red pine ( Pinus resinosa Ait.)-dominated forests in northern Minnesota, USA, we examined growth responses before and after understory prescribed fires between 1960 and 1970, to assess whether repeated burning influences growth responses of overstory trees and vulnerability of overstory tree growth to drought. We found no difference in tree-level growth vulnerability to drought, expressed as growth resistance, resilience, and recovery, between areas receiving prescribed fire treatments and untreated forests. Annual mortality rates during the period of active burning were also low (less than 2%) in all treatments. These findings indicate that prescribed fire can be effectively integrated into management plans and climate change adaptation strategies for red pine forest ecosystems without significant short- or long-term negative consequences for growth or mortality rates of overstory trees.

Minnesota↗

USGS2017

Science framework for conservation and restoration of the sagebrush biome: Linking the Department of the Interior’s Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy to long-term strategic conservation actions, Part 1. Science basis and applications

The Science Framework is intended to link the Department of the Interior’s Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy with long-term strategic conservation actions in the sagebrush biome. The Science Framework provides a multiscale approach for prioritizing areas for management and determining effective management strategies within the sagebrush biome. The emphasis is on sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems and Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). The approach provided in the Science Framework links sagebrush ecosystem resilience to disturbance and resistance to nonnative, invasive plant species to species habitat information based on the distribution and abundance of focal species. A geospatial process is presented that overlays information on ecosystem resilience and resistance, species habitats, and predominant threats and that can be used at the mid-scale to prioritize areas for management. A resilience and resistance habitat matrix is provided that can help decisionmakers evaluate risks and determine appropriate management strategies. Prioritized areas and management strategies can be refined by managers and stakeholders at the local scale based on higher resolution data and local knowledge. Decision tools are discussed for determining appropriate management actions for areas that are prioritized for management. Geospatial data, maps, and models are provided through the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) ScienceBase and Bureau of Land Management (BLM) Landscape Approach Data Portal. The Science Framework is intended to be adaptive and will be updated as additional data become available on other values and species at risk. It is anticipated that the Science Framework will be widely used to: (1) inform emerging strategies to conserve sagebrush ecosystems, sagebrush dependent species, and human uses of the sagebrush system, and (2) assist managers in prioritizing and planning on-the-ground restoration and mitigation actions across the sagebrush biome.

California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oreg↗