Geology topics

John B. Bradford

Publications and source records attributed to John B. Bradford.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

USGS2023

Colorado River Basin Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology Project—Science strategy

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts a wide variety of science that improves understanding of droughts and their effects on ecosystems and society. This work includes data collection and monitoring of aquatic and terrestrial systems; assessment and analysis of patterns, trends, drivers, and impacts of drought; development and application of predictive models; and delivery of information and decision-making tools to stakeholders. Stakeholders, which include Federal, Tribal, State, and local agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and others, use this information to anticipate, assess, react to, and mitigate drought conditions and impacts. There is no obvious near-term solution to reduce the frequency and severity of droughts or to mitigate drought impacts. Multidecadal drought is a “grand challenge” that benefits from integration of existing technologies, data, knowledge, and models across related and disparate disciplines, facilitated by new science and technology. In response, the USGS initiated a new integrated-science approach in the Colorado River Basin in 2020. The Colorado River Basin was specifically selected because of concerns about future drought and its consequences for the region. This document explains how the Colorado River Basin Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology (ASIST) project extends and enhances the science supported by USGS Mission Areas and Programs and articulates scientific gaps and stakeholder needs to identify and reduce drought risks. The approach seeks to answer complex Earth science questions developed in partnership with stakeholders about severe long-term drought. An integrated approach is required to tackle these complex questions, which any single science discipline cannot answer on its own. In addition to increased understanding of drought and drought effects in complex systems, the Colorado River Basin ASIST project was designed to improve efficiencies through rapid location of a broad array of data sources, assembly of model-ready multidisciplinary data, and delivery of actionable science to stakeholders at the speeds and scales needed for decision making. The project team identified the following actions needed for USGS to implement and advance an integrated science approach in the Colorado River Basin: (1) engage with stakeholders to document their needs and iteratively co-produce science and science delivery tools to address these needs, (2) integrate monitoring and observation systems developed by USGS and other agencies that track droughts and their effects, (3) collect and provide analysis-ready data to support integrated applications, (4) integrate data and model connections to predict multiple drought impacts, (5) conduct multidisciplinary coordination to improve interpretations, (6) leverage the knowledge base across USGS to enhance decision making, and (7) support the development of new integrated science approaches and technologies that provide analysis and management tools that can be used to adapt to the effects of drought in the Colorado River Basin. Proposals for initial short-term use-case projects were solicited, a subset of which was selected for funding to test implementation of these actions. Additionally, the project organized and convened a series of science and technology collaboration workshops in the USGS focused on challenges that were identified and prioritized by the short-term use-case projects and during the initial stakeholder analysis. These workshops were designed to bring together diverse perspectives to discuss science and technology challenges, stakeholder needs, capabilities, and knowledge gaps, with the goal of determining how the USGS can address challenges, identify future opportunities for continued engagement between participants, and inform the next steps for the Colorado River Basin ASIST project. Continuing to collaboratively engage with a wide range of stakeholders using an integrated approach will provide a suitable foundation of data and tools to formulate actionable intelligence for predicting droughts and informing adaptation to the effects of long-term drought in a holistic, timely, and effective manner.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗

USGS2023

New indicators of ecological resilience and invasion resistance to support prioritization and management in the sagebrush biome, United States

Ecosystem transformations to altered or novel ecological states are accelerating across the globe. Indicators of ecological resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasion can aid in assessing risks and prioritizing areas for conservation and restoration. The sagebrush biome encompasses parts of 11 western states and is experiencing rapid transformations due to human population growth, invasive species, altered disturbance regimes, and climate change. We built on prior use of static soil moisture and temperature regimes to develop new, ecologically relevant and climate responsive indicators of both resilience and resistance. Our new indicators were based on climate and soil water availability variables derived from process-based ecohydrological models that allow predictions of future conditions. We asked: (1) Which variables best indicate resilience and resistance? (2) What are the relationships among the indicator variables and resilience and resistance categories? (3) How do patterns of resilience and resistance vary across the area? We assembled a large database ( n = 24,045) of vegetation sample plots from regional monitoring programs and derived multiple climate and soil water availability variables for each plot from ecohydrological simulations. We used USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service National Soils Survey Information, Ecological Site Descriptions, and expert knowledge to develop and assign ecological types and resilience and resistance categories to each plot. We used random forest models to derive a set of 19 climate and water availability variables that best predicted resilience and resistance categories. Our models had relatively high multiclass accuracy (80% for resilience; 75% for resistance). Top indicator variables for both resilience and resistance included mean temperature, coldest month temperature, climatic water deficit, and summer and driest month precipitation. Variable relationships and patterns differed among ecoregions but reflected environmental gradients; low resilience and resistance were indicated by warm and dry conditions with high climatic water deficits, and moderately high to high resilience and resistance were characterized by cooler and moister conditions with low climatic water deficits. The new, ecologically-relevant indicators provide information on the vulnerability of resources and likely success of management actions, and can be used to develop new approaches and tools for prioritizing areas for conservation and restoration actions.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2023

Plant community predictions support the potential for big sagebrush range expansion adjacent to the leading edge

Big sagebrush ecosystems are widespread across drylands of western North America and provide numerous services, but the abundance of these ecosystems has declined substantially and the future of these ecosystems is uncertain. As a result, characterizing potential areas for expansion of these ecosystems is important. Species distribution models of the big sagebrush suggest areas of increasing climatic habitat suitability at northern latitudes under climate change scenarios. This implies the formation of a leading edge during a future big sagebrush range expansion. Such an expansion requires that current nearby range margin big sagebrush populations are stable and serve as future seed sources. Our goal was to quantify the impacts of future climate conditions on the plant community composition and biomass in the in range margin big sagebrush plant communities adjacent to the leading edge. We did this using an individual-based soil water and plant growth simulation model, STEPWAT2. We assessed community dynamics throughout the twenty-first century using 13 climate models under two representative concentration pathways to capture the variability among projections. Our results show minimal overall change in plant community composition and little change in biomass, suggesting that range margin big sagebrush plant communities adjacent to the leading edge will remain stable to serve as essential dispersal sources for future range expansion, assuming no other relevant changes such as changes in disturbance regimes. These assessments of plant community responses to shifts in climate and characterization of variability in future projections will help inform conservation planning and management of the big sagebrush ecosystem.

Regional Environmental Change↗

USGS2023

Widespread regeneration failure in ponderosa pine forests of the southwestern United States

As climate changes in coming decades, ponderosa pine forest persistence may be increasingly dictated by their regeneration. Sustained regeneration failure has been predicted for forests of the southwestern US (SWUS) even in absence of stand-replacing wildfire, but regeneration in undisturbed and lightly disturbed forests has been studied infrequently and at a limited number of locations. We characterized 77 ponderosa pine sites in 7 SWUS locations, documented regeneration occurring over the past ∼ "> ∼ 20 years, and utilized gridded meteorological estimates and water balance modeling to determine the climate and environmental conditions associated with regeneration failure (R0). Of these sites, 29 % "> % were R0, illuminating that regeneration failure in these forests is widespread. R0 sites were distinguished by high above- and belowground heat loading, loss of cool-season climate, and high soil moisture variation. Explanatory variables had high accuracy in identifying R0 sites, and illustrate the climate-driven pathway by which regeneration failure has occurred in the SWUS. Regeneration failure has high potential to increase in a warmer, more hydrologically variable climate, and expand regionally from lower to higher latitudes. Yet, we also found that human management interventions were associated with environmental conditions that avoided regeneration failure. To counteract regeneration-associated forest declines, interventions will need to influence climate-driven environmental change by adjusting forest characteristics at local scales. Regeneration failures are a major threat to ponderosa pine forest persistence, and they have potential to intensify and expand in a changing climate.

Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico↗

USGS2023

Supporting the development and use of native plant materials for restoration on the Colorado Plateau (Fiscal Year 2022 Report)

A primary focus of the Colorado Plateau Native Plant Program (CPNPP) is to identify and develop appropriate native plant materials (NPMs) for current and future restoration projects. Multiple efforts have characterized the myriad challenges inherent in providing appropriate seed resources to enable effective, widespread restoration and have identified a broad suite of research activities to provide the information necessary to overcome those challenges (e.g., Plant Conservation Alliance, 2015; Breed et al., 2018; Winkler et al., 2018; NASEM, 2023). Many of the most complex information needs relate to identifying the appropriate sources of plant species that can successfully establish in dryland environments, like the Colorado Plateau, where low and highly variable precipitation is standard. Providing this information requires synergistic research efforts in which results from earlier investigations inform the design of subsequent investigations. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Southwest Biological Science Center’s (SBSC’s) research activities to support CPNPP in FY22 followed the FY22 Statement of Work to support a research framework that is continually adapting based on the needs of the restoration community and results from previous investigations; the long-term research framework is outlined in the 2019-2023 5-Year Research Strategy (hereafter referred to as the 5-year plan). This research framework provides support for the National Seed Strategy for Rehabilitation and Restoration (Plant Conservation Alliance, 2015), Biden-Harris Administration Executive Order 14008 (Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad), and Department of Interior Priority #4 (Working to conserve at least 30% each of our lands and waters by the year 2030). Research activities in FY22 centered on landscape genomics, monitoring common garden and seeding experiments near Vernal and Moab, UT, conducting experimental treatments using the GRID (Germination for Restoration Information and Decision-making) framework, and continuing newer genetics projects to investigate the impact of productions techniques on plant materials and restoration treatments on native plant communities. These activities were supported by two biological science technicians. The effects of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic were less visible in FY22, allowing SBSC to catch up on backlogged laboratory work. The overall progress of SBSC’s research remains on track with respect to the 5-year plan. While Dr. Rob Massatti was the only scientist supported by the SBSC-CPNPP agreement in FY22, other scientists, including Drs. John Bradford, Seth Munson, Mike Duniway, Sasha Reed, and Daniel Winkler, spent a considerable amount of time providing expertise and support for individual projects. Work activities performed in support of each 5-year plan goal are discussed in turn.

Colorado Plateau↗

USGS2022

Divergent climate impacts on C3 versus C4 grasses imply widespread 21st century shifts in grassland functional composition

Aim Grasslands cover a third of Earth's landmass and provide critical ecosystem services. Anticipating how perennial C 3 (cool-season) and C 4 (warm-season) grasses respond to climate change will be key to predicting future composition and functioning of grasslands. Here, we evaluate environmental drivers of C 3 and C 4 perennial distributions and assess how C 3 and C 4 grass distributions shift in response to future climate change. Location Western United States. Methods We developed integrated species distribution models to identify climate and soil drivers of relative abundance of C 3 and C 4 perennial grasses. We then created projections of species abundances under future climate and evaluated when and where projected shifts in relative abundance were robust across climate models. Results Historically, C 3 grasses occupied areas with lower temperature and more variable precipitation regimes, while C 4 grasses occupied areas of higher temperature, greater temperature variability and greater warm-season precipitation. C 4 species also occupied narrower soil texture niches. In response to future climate change, C 3 grass abundance declined across 74% of areas, while C 4 abundance increased across 66% of areas. C 3 grasses expanded in mid- to higher-latitude areas with increasing temperature and decreasing seasonality of precipitation. In contrast, C 4 grasses increased in higher-latitude regions, but declined in lower-latitude, dryer regions. Results were surprisingly robust across climate scenarios, suggesting high confidence in the direction of these future changes. Main Conclusions Findings imply C 3 and C 4 perennial grasses will have highly divergent responses to climate change that may result in grassland functional compositional changes. Increasing temperatures and precipitation variability may favour some C 4 grasses, but C 4 habitat expansion may be constrained by soil conditions in western USA. Results provide actionable insights for anticipating the impacts of climate change on grass-dominated and co-dominated ecosystems and improving large-scale conservation and restoration efforts.

Diversity and Distributions↗

USGS2022

Ecologically relevant moisture and temperature metrics for assessing dryland ecosystem dynamics

In drylands, water-limited regions that cover ~40% of the global land surface, ecosystems are primarily controlled by access to soil moisture and exposure to simultaneously hot and dry conditions. Quantifying ecologically relevant environmental metrics is difficult in drylands because the response of vegetation to moisture and temperature conditions is not easily explained solely by climate-based metrics. To address this knowledge gap, we developed and examined 27 climate and ecological drought metrics across dryland areas of the western U.S. Included in the 27 metrics is a suite of 19 largely new “ecological drought metrics” that are designed to quantify multiple aspects of environmental limitation in drylands, including overall growing conditions, seasonal fluctuations, seasonal moisture timing, exposure to extreme drought, and recruitment potential for perennial plants. To quantify these metrics, we simulated water balance pools and fluxes of daily soil moisture at multiple depths with historical weather from 1970-2010 using the SOILWAT2 ecosystem water balance model. We assessed the relationships among these metrics and their spatial and temporal patterns. We found that the inclusion of ecological drought metrics substantially increased the dimensionality of the climate metrics dataset; the number of independent variables needed to explain 90% of the variance in the dataset increased with the addition of ecological drought metrics. Spatial patterns in overall growing conditions represented well-known differences among ecoregions, for example high temperatures and low precipitation in the southwest and cool temperatures and greater precipitation in the northeast. Seasonal fluctuation in soil water availability (SWA) was greatest in the southwest (Mojave Desert) while fluctuation in climatic water deficit (CWD) was greatest in the northwest (northern Great Basin and Columbia Plateau). Seasonal timing of moisture also differed among metrics; the timing of wet degree days (WDD), SWA and CWD were only weakly related to seasonal timing of precipitation. Plant recruitment metrics varied strongly across western drylands. In the Great Plains, recruitment events occurred more frequently and lasted longer than in the intermountain regions, where recruitment events were comparatively rare and short. These ecological drought metrics provide new insight into patterns of soil moisture and temperature that shape the structure and function of dryland ecosystems. The metrics will be useful for assessing the potential impact of climate change on dryland ecosystems and developing adaptive resource management strategies to sustain dryland ecosystem services in a changing world.

Ecohydrology↗

USGS2022

Geologic, geomorphic, and edaphic underpinnings of dryland ecosystems: Colorado Plateau landscapes in a changing world

Drylands represent more than 41% of the global land surface and are at degradation risk due to land use and climate change. Developing strategies to mitigate degradation and restore drylands in the face of these threats requires an understanding of how drylands are shaped by not only soils and climate, but also geology and geomorphology. However, few studies have completed such a comprehensive analysis that relates spatial variation in plant communities to all aspects of the geologic–geomorphic–edaphic–plant–climate system. The focus of this study is the Colorado Plateau, a high-elevation dryland in the southwestern United States, which is particularly sensitive to future change due to climate vulnerability and increasing land-use pressure. Here, we examined 135 long-term vegetation-monitoring sites in three national parks and characterized connections between geology, geomorphology, soils, climate, and dryland plant communities. To first understand the geologic and geomorphic influences on soil formation and characteristics, we explore associations between soil pedons, bedrock geology, and geomorphology. Then, we characterize principal axes of variation in plant communities and ascertain controls and linkages between components of the edaphic–geomorphic system and plant community ordinations. Geologic and geomorphic substrate exerted controls on important properties of the soil profile, particularly depth, water-holding capacity, rockiness, salinity, and fine sands. Ordination identified five distinct plant communities and three primary axes of variation, representing gradients of woody- to herbaceous-dominated communities (Axis 1), saline scrublands to C 3 grasslands (Axis 2), and annual to perennial communities (Axis 3). Geology, geomorphology, and soil explained a large proportion of variation in Axis 1 (74%), while climate variables largely explained Axis 2 (68%), and Axis 3 was not well explained by the random forest models. The variables identified as most influential to each axis were, respectively: (1) soil depth; (2) aridity, lithology, and soil salinity; and (3) temperature and precipitation. We posit that Axis 3 represents a land degradation gradient due to historic grazing, likely exacerbated by dry conditions. Results provide a novel framework that links the geologic and geomorphic evolution of landscapes, with the distribution of soils and plant communities that can guide ecosystem management, exemplifying an approach applicable to drylands globally.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗

USGS2022

Climate disequilibrium dominates uncertainty in long-term projections of primary productivity

Rapid climate change may exceed ecosystems' capacities to respond through processes including phenotypic plasticity, compositional turnover and evolutionary adaption. However, consequences of the resulting climate disequilibria for ecosystem functioning are rarely considered in projections of climate change impacts. Combining statistical models fit to historical climate data and remotely-sensed estimates of herbaceous net primary productivity with an ensemble of climate models, we demonstrate that assumptions concerning the magnitude of climate disequilibrium are a dominant source of uncertainty: models assuming maximum disequilibrium project widespread decreases in productivity in the western US by 2100, while models assuming minimal disequilibrium project productivity increases. Uncertainty related to climate disequilibrium is larger than uncertainties from variation among climate models or emissions pathways. A better understanding of processes that regulate climate disequilibria is essential for improving long-term projections of ecological responses and informing management to maintain ecosystem functioning at historical baselines.

Ecology Letters↗

USGS2022

A sagebrush conservation design to proactively restore America’s sagebrush biome

A working group of experts with diverse professional backgrounds and disciplinary expertise was assembled to conceptualize a spatially explicit conservation design to support and inform the Sagebrush Conservation Strategy Part 2. The goal was to leverage recent advancements in remotely sensed landcover products to develop spatially and temporally explicit maps of sagebrush rangeland condition and landscape threats. In addition, the group sought to provide a common basis for understanding the state of sagebrush rangelands through time. First, the study team developed a spatially explicit model to assess geographic patterns in sagebrush ecological integrity and used this model to identify core sagebrush areas (CSAs), growth opportunity areas (GOAs), and other rangeland areas (ORAs) across the biome. Among the identified rangelands, 33.4 million acres were classified as CSAs; 84.3 million acres as GOAs; and 127.2 million acres as ORAs as of 2020. Second, the team sought to demonstrate the ecological relevance of the identified CSAs and GOAs by comparing these data with independent datasets for sagebrush obligate species of conservation concern. Geographical patterns in sagebrush ecological integrity were strongly associated with the occurrence of high-priority species and also displayed clear links to population performance for greater sage-grouse. Third, the team parsed out the type, location, and acres of primary threats within the different categories (CSAs, GOAs, and ORAs) to help focus active management by identifying places where multiagency and organization efforts can protect CSAs and GOAs that have higher levels of integrity with lower cumulative threats. The assessment of the condition of the sagebrush biome (that is, the location, amount, and conservation status) indicated that complex ecosystem function problems are driving ~73 percent of the demonstrated threats within the CSAs and GOAs (rather than point-source problems, such as human development). Fourth, the team developed trend estimates for the identified CSAs and GOAs and three selected primary threats (invasive annual grasses, conifer encroachment, and human modification) to the sagebrush biome from 2001 to 2020. Results showed that an average of 1.3 million acres per year have transitioned to ORAs at an annual rate of −1.34 percent. Fifth, the team developed an approach to integrate climate change effects into the threat-based landscape conservation design and conducted an initial assessment on the magnitude of near-term climate effects in the context of observed historical trends. The team’s analysis suggests that climate change alone is unlikely to be the dominant threat to sagebrush ecological integrity in the next few decades, although interactions of climate with wildfire and invasive annual grasses may be an important threat, especially in the longer term. A spatial overlap analysis was performed and highlighted 45.8 million acres of shared priorities among existing conservation frameworks to help anchor and guide collaborative landscape-scale conservation of areas that still have no to low threats. This information is critical to provide context for decisions about the volume and nature of conservation actions and funding requirements.

western United States↗

USGS2022

Dry forest decline is driven by both declining recruitment and increasing mortality in response to warm, dry conditions

Aim: Anticipating when and where changes in species' demographic rates will lead to range shifts in response to changing climate remains a major challenge. Despite evidence of increasing mortality in dry forests across the globe in response to drought and warming temperatures, the overall impacts on the distribution of dry forests are largely unknown because we lack comparable large-scale data on tree recruitment rates. Here, our aim was to develop range-wide population models for dry forest tree species (pinyon pine and juniper), quantifying both mortality and recruitment, to better understand where and under what conditions species range contractions are occurring. Location: Western United States. Major taxa studied: Two pinyon pine ( Pinus spp . ) and three juniper ( Juniperus spp . ) species. Methods: We developed range-wide demographic models for five species using forest inventory data from across the western United States and estimated population trends and climate vulnerability. Results: We find that four of the five species are declining in parts of their range, with Pinus edulis having the largest proportion of populations declining (24%). Population vulnerability increases with aridity and temperature, with up to ~50% of populations declining in the warmest and driest conditions. Mortality and recruitment were both essential to explaining where populations are declining. Main conclusions: Our results suggest that dry forest species are undergoing an active range shift driven by both changing recruitment and mortality, and that increasing temperatures and drought threaten the long-term viability of many of these species in their current range. While four of the five species examined were experiencing some declines, P. edulis is currently most vulnerable. Management actions such as reducing tree density may be able to mitigate some of these impacts. The framework we present to estimate range-wide demographic rates can be applied to other species to determine where range contractions are most likely.

Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, New Me↗

USGS2022

Southeast Utah Group climate and drought adaptation report: Exposure and perennial grass sensitivity

National Park Service (NPS) managers face growing challenges resulting from the effects of climate change. In particular, as temperatures rise in coming decades, natural resource management in the western United States must cope with expectations for elevated severity and frequency of droughts. These challenges are particularly pronounced for vegetation managers in dryland environments. Developing adaptive strategies requires specific information about the expected magnitude of change in climate and drought conditions as well as insights into how those changes will affect important vegetation resources. This report describes research focused on Southeast Utah Group (SEUG) park units designed to provide information about exposure and sensitivity of perennial grasses to aridification. Analyses at larger regional scales are also reported for context and comparison. This report is a product of an ongoing climate adaptation collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), NPS, and Northern Arizona University. The study it summarizes contributes quantitative ingredients for vulnerability assessments that are needed in the Climate-Smart Conservation framework. As such, the results informed a series of climate adaptation workshops conducted between 2018 and 2021 for Colorado Plateau scientists and managers. This is a giant step forward in science-informed management. The information in this report can be used to craft management strategies that can be implemented at the right place and time for individual species of concern.

Colorado, Utah↗

USGS2022

Primary production responses to extreme changes in North American Monsoon precipitation vary by elevation and plant functional composition through time

Primary production in dryland ecosystems is limited by water availability and projected to be strongly affected by future shifts in seasonal precipitation. Warm-season precipitation derived from the North American Monsoon contributes 40% of annual precipitation to dryland ecosystems in the southwestern U.S. and is projected to become more variable. However, there is large uncertainty on whether this variability will be expressed as either extreme wet or dry years and how primary production of different plant functional types will respond across widespread elevation gradients in this region. We experimentally imposed extreme drought and water addition treatments from 2016 – 2020, during which ambient warm-season precipitation declined to reach historic lows, to understand production sensitivity of dominant plant functional types along a 1,000 m elevation gradient. We found that the production responses of plant functional types to monsoon precipitation extremes were dependent on the number of treatment years that occurred across sites along the elevation gradient. C 4 perennial grasses were most responsive to precipitation manipulation treatments, followed by C 3 perennial grasses and annuals, while perennial forbs and shrubs had weak or no responses. C 4 perennial grass reductions due to extreme drought were generally stronger or occurred earlier at low elevation sites, while multi-year extreme drought extended negative effects to C 3 perennial grasses at high elevation, and all sites showed delayed responses to multi-year water addition. We found that the sensitivity of C 3 perennial grass production differed for extreme drought and water addition compared to ambient precipitation at one site, but other sites and plant functional types had similar sensitivities to the different treatment types. Synthesis . The upward advance of primary production responsiveness from single- to multi-year extreme changes in warm-season precipitation suggests more immediate shifts in functional composition and carbon cycling at low elevation, while high elevation ecosystems may become less resistant as the effects of extreme precipitation compound through time.

Arizona↗

USGS2022

Management and environmental factors associated with simulated restoration seeding barriers in sagebrush steppe

Adverse weather conditions, particularly freezing or drought, are often associated with poor seedling establishment following restoration seeding in drylands like the Great Basin sagebrush steppe (USA). Management decisions such as planting date or seed source could improve restoration outcomes by reducing seedling exposure to weather barriers. We simulated the effects of management and environmental factors on seedling exposure to post-germination barriers for bottlebrush squirreltail ( Elymus elymoides ), Sandberg bluegrass ( Poa secunda ), and bluebunch wheatgrass ( Pseudoroegneria spicata ). We combined germination timing models with daily soil moisture and temperature estimates to calculate yearly germination favorability and post-germination freezing and drought barriers for three planting dates (Oct. 15, Nov. 15, and Mar. 15) and three seed sources or cultivars per species for 5000 sites in each of 40 yrs (water years 1980-2019). We tested the effects of site environmental variables (elevation, mean annual precipitation, heat load, and clay content) and management choices (seed source and planting date) on germination favorability and barrier occurrence (mean) and variability (coefficient of variation). Seedling exposure to barriers was strongly linked to management decisions in addition to site mean precipitation and elevation. Later fall plantings and seed sources with slower germination (lower mean germination favorability) were less likely to encounter freezing and drought barriers. These results suggest that management actions can play a role comparable to site environmental variables in reducing exposure of vulnerable seedlings to adverse weather conditions and subsequent effects on restoration outcomes.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washingto↗

USGS2022

Soil moisture response to seasonal drought conditions and post-thinning forest structure

Prolonged drought conditions in semi-arid forests can lead to widespread vegetation stress and mortality. However, the distribution of these effects is not spatially uniform. We measured soil water potential at high spatial and temporal resolution using 112 sensors distributed across a ponderosa pine forest in northern Arizona, USA, during two abnormally dry years with below-average total precipitation. We used the data to assess the effects of fore-summer drought period on the timing, magnitude, and extent of drying throughout the top 100 cm of the soil profile. Additionally, we use high spatial resolution terrestrial lidar measurements of forest structure to develop relationships between soil drying and fine-scale forest structure. We find that increasing drought from 2019 to 2020 caused significantly earlier onset of soil dying at all depths (25, 50 and 100 cm) and more days below a critical drying threshold for ponderosa pine. Additionally, our results show that significantly drier soils are found in areas with higher stand-level basal area, canopy cover and tree density, and shorter trees. Our results from the unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution data suggest that tailored restoration thinning with specific tree density and size parameters can be used to increase and prolong the availability of deep soil water to trees during drought.

Ecohydrology↗

USGS2022

Landscape-scale forest restoration decreases vulnerability to drought mortality under climate change in southwest USA ponderosa forest

Drought-induced tree mortality is predicted to increase in dry forests across the western USA as future projections show hotter, drier climates potentially resulting in large-scale tree die-offs, changes in species composition, and loss of forest ecosystem services, including carbon storage. While some studies have found that forest stands with greater basal areas (BA) have higher drought mortality, many have not evaluated the extent to which forest structure, either overly dense forests due to fire suppression or forests restored to lower densities, interacts with drought mortality. The southwestern USA is particularly susceptible to tree mortality due to the predicted increases in temperature, drier soils, and forests with high density. Our objective was to evaluate how ponderosa pine mortality is expected to be influenced by the Four Forests Restoration Initiative, a large-scale forest restoration effort ongoing in northern Arizona, USA, that will reduce stand BA by approximately 40%. Specifically, we modeled drought mortality in three time periods, one contemporary (1970-2010), and two future (2020-2059 and 2060-2099) under three restoration scenarios: no thinning, 4FRI thinning, and a BA reduction beyond the 4FRI plan (4FRI-intensive). We estimated mortality using 11 climate models under two emissions scenarios. Without thinning, our model predicted that by mid-century (2020-2059), changes in climate could increase annual ponderosa pine mortality rates by 45-57% over contemporary rates. However, with thinning, mid-century mortality was predicted to remain near or below contemporary rates and these rates are 31-35% (4FRI) and 46-51% (4FRI-intensive) less than the mid-century scenarios without thinning. Our study shows that while climate change is likely to increase tree mortality rates, large-scale forest restoration projects, such as 4FRI, have the potential to ameliorate the effects of climate change and keep mortality rates near contemporary levels for decades.

Arizona↗

USGS2022

Winter 2020-2021 edition

In this edition: 2021 year in review, native seed development process, RestoreNet protocol published and lots of associated research, a handful of climate change science, and more.

RAMPS Newsletter↗

USGS2022

Supporting the development and use of native plant materials for restoration on the Colorado Plateau (Fiscal Year 2021 Report)

A primary focus of the Colorado Plateau Native Plant Program (CPNPP) is to identify and develop appropriate native plant materials (NPMs) for current and future restoration projects. Multiple efforts have characterized the myriad challenges inherent in providing appropriate seed resources to enable effective, widespread restoration and have identified a broad suite of research activities to provide the information necessary to overcome those challenges (e.g., Plant Conservation Alliance 2015; Breed et al. 2018; Winkler et al. 2018; McCormick et al. 2021). Many of the most complex information needs relate to identifying the appropriate sources of plant species that can successfully establish in dryland environments, like the Colorado Plateau, where low and highly variable precipitation is standard. Providing this information requires synergistic research efforts in which results from earlier investigations inform the design of subsequent investigations. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Southwest Biological Science Center’s (SBSC’s) research activities to support CPNPP in FY21 followed the FY21 Statement of Work to support a research framework that is continually adapting based on the needs of the restoration community and results from previous investigations; the long-term research framework is outlined in the 2019-2023 5-Year Research Strategy (hereafter referred to as the 5-year plan). This research framework provides support for the National Seed Strategy for Rehabilitation and Restoration (Plant Conservation Alliance 2015), Biden-Harris Administration Executive Order 14008 (Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad), and Department of Interior Priority #4 (Working to conserve at least 30% each of our lands and waters by the year 2030). Research activities in FY21 centered on landscape genomics, implementing and monitoring a common garden experiment near Vernal, UT, conducting experimental treatments using the GRID (Germination for Restoration Information and Decision-making) framework, and initiating new genetics projects to investigate the impact of production techniques on plant materials and restoration treatments on native plant communities. These activities were supported by four biological science technicians. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic delayed some aspects of the FY21 workplan, especially for outside laboratory services. However, goals were largely met, and the overall progress of research remains on track with respect to the 5-year plan. While Dr. Rob Massatti was the only scientist supported by the SBSC-CPNPP agreement in FY21, other scientists, including Drs. John Bradford, Seth Munson, Mike Duniway, Sasha Reed, and Daniel Winkler, spent a considerable amount of time providing expertise and support for individual projects. Work activities performed in support of each 5-year plan goal are discussed in turn. Products resulting from FY21 research activities are reported in Appendix 1.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗