Geology topics

John Austin

Publications and source records attributed to John Austin.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Decision analysis in support of proactive planning for chronic wasting disease in Vermont, USA

Chronic wasting disease (CWD), a fatal, transmissible disease in white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) and related species, is spreading across North America but has not yet been detected in Vermont, United States (U.S.). The Vermont Department of Fish and Wildlife, along with partner agencies, wants to develop a proactive prevention and response plan in anticipation of the eventual detection of the disease. Between September 2023 and September 2025, staff from the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Vermont facilitated a structured decision-making (SDM) process with seven State and Federal agencies that have jurisdiction over some aspect of CWD management in Vermont. The aim of this process was to generate and evaluate alternative response plans against a range of long-term objectives important to the agencies. To aid in the evaluation of the alternatives, we developed a linked set of models for white-tailed deer population and disease dynamics, hunter participation and health, forest health, economic consequences, and agricultural opportunities related to the actions being contemplated as part of the response plan. We evaluated over 256 different permutations of management actions and used multi-criteria decision analysis, a branch of decision analysis designed to help decision makers navigate tradeoffs among competing objectives, to summarize the performance of those alternative strategies against the desired outcomes. Proactive actions—those designed to slow the arrival of CWD to Vermont—were moderately effective, but the most important proactive action was surveillance to detect the disease early after arrival, which triggered response actions after detection. With the insights generated by the SDM process and the results of the analyses, the participating agencies were able to identify a preferred strategy and outline the elements of a proactive response plan. This report describes the SDM process, the technical details of the modeling work, and the results of the analyses. It is intended to serve as the technical basis for Vermont’s response plan.

BioRxiv↗

USGS2018

Public acceptability of development in the Northern Forest of Vermont, USA – the influence of wildlife information, recreation involvement, and demographic characteristics

Increasing development such as roads and houses will alter future landscapes and result in biological, social, and economic trade-offs. Managing development requires information on the public’s acceptability of development and understanding which factors shape acceptability. In this study, we examined three questions: 1) What is the public’s acceptability of development? 2) Is acceptability of development influenced by wildlife information? and 3) Is the maximum amount of acceptable development influenced by views about wildlife, involvement in outdoor recreation, and demographic factors? We conducted a visual-preference survey of 9,000 households in Vermont, USA that asked about acceptable levels of development, acceptability of wildlife, involvement in recreation, and individual and town demographics. The survey response rate was 44%. Maximum acceptable condition (MAC) for development was 41 houses/km 2 and not meaningfully influenced by broader consequences of development on seven common wildlife species. MAC was influenced by views on individual species, including bear and coyote, but not by other species such as deer, fox, and bobcat. Respondents with a positive attitude toward bear favored less development, whereas the opposite relationship existed for coyote. Similarly, MAC was negatively influenced by involvement in birding and hunting, but not by other common recreational activities. Among demographic factors, respondents that were younger and not born in Vermont were more accepting of development. Population density also positively influenced development acceptability. Results provide measures of the public’s acceptability of development that can help guide decision-making about development, wildlife, and recreation management.

Vermont↗

USGS2014

Normative standards for land use in Vermont: Implications for biodiversity

The conversion of natural lands to developed uses poses a great threat to global terrestrial biodiversity. Natural resource managers, tasked with managing wildlife as a public trust, require techniques for predicting how much and where wildlife habitat is likely to be converted in the future. Here, we develop a methodology to estimate the “social carrying capacity for development” – SK d – for 251 towns across the state of Vermont, USA. SK d represents town residents’ minimum acceptable human population size and level of development within town boundaries. To estimate SK d across towns within the state of Vermont (USA), as well as the average state-wide SK d , we administered a visual preference survey ( n = 1505 responses) to Vermont residents, and asked respondents to rate alternative landuse scenarios in a fictional Vermont town on a scale of +4 (highly acceptable) to −4 (highly unacceptable). We additionally collected demographic data such as age and income, as well as ancillary information such as participation in town-planning meetings and location of residence. We used model selection and AIC to fit a cubic function to the response data, allowing us to estimate SK d at a town scale based on town demographic characteristics. On average, Vermonters had a SK d of 9.1% development on the landscape; this estimate is 68% higher than year 2000 levels for development (5.4%). Respondents indicated that management action to curb development was appropriate at 9.4% development (roughly the statewide SK d average). Management by local, regional, and state levels were considered acceptable for curbing development while federal level management of development was considered unacceptable. Given a scenario where development levels were at SK d , we predicted a 16,753 km 2 reduction in forested land (−11.16%) and a 1038 km 2 reduction in farmland (−60.45%). Such changes would dramatically alter biodiversity patterns state-wide. In a companion paper, we estimate how these changes would affect the distribution of wildlife species.

Vermont↗

USGS2014

Acceptability of residential development in a regional landscape: Potential effects on wildlife occupancy patterns

The conversion of natural lands to developed uses may pose the single greatest human threat to global terrestrial biodiversity. Continued human growth and development over the next century will further exacerbate these effects of habitat loss and fragmentation. Natural resource managers are tasked with managing wildlife as a public trust, yet often have little say in land use decisions. Generally speaking, decision makers could benefit from an understanding of what different regulations mean in terms of wildlife distribution. In a previous paper ( Bettigole et al., 2013 ), we surveyed town residents throughout Vermont to measure how respondents feel about a range of development levels within their town boundaries. We estimated the “social carrying capacity for development” – or SK d – for 251 towns in Vermont. SK d provides an estimate of the level of developed land cover classes that town residents deem “acceptable” within their town boundaries. In this paper, we design a framework for linking the town-specific SK d estimates with the wildlife distribution patterns for three wide-ranging mammalian species: American black bear ( Ursus americanus ), fisher ( Martes pennanti ), and bobcat ( Lynx rufus ). We simulated landscape conditions at SK d for each town in Vermont, and then used existing occupancy models for the three target species to spatially map and compare occupancy rates in the baseline year 2000 with occupancy rates at SK d . With nearly 90% of Vermont towns willing to increase developed landcover classes within town boundaries compared to baseline levels, significant state-wide changes in occupancy rates were predicted for all three focal species. Average occupancy rates declined by −15.9% and −3.1% for black bear and bobcats, respectively. Average occupancy rates for fisher increased by 9.0%. This study provides a method for linking development standards within a town with wildlife occurrence. Across towns, the methodology spatially identifies areas that may be at risk of future development, as well as identifying areas where wildlife distribution patterns may face future change as a result of increased human population growth and development.

Biological Conservation↗