Geology topics

Joel G. Jorgensen

Publications and source records attributed to Joel G. Jorgensen.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Extrinsic factors similarly affect nest survival of a threatened shorebird in natural and human-created habitats

Knowledge of factors that influence nest survival can inform effective conservation management for imperiled avian species. Habitat availability and quality are common priorities of conservation efforts, and climate and interspecific associations can also affect survival rates. In the lower Platte River system of eastern Nebraska, USA, Piping Plovers ( Charadrius melodus , hereafter plovers) nest on river sandbars and different types of human-created off-river sites (i.e., sand and gravel mines, housing developments, and transitional sites) that are unique within the Northern Great Plains breeding population. However, off-river habitat may not be suitable for plover nesting long-term because of reduced habitat availability on both river sandbars and off-river sites. We evaluated plover nest survival at off-river and sandbar sites using data from 2008 to 2023 (n = 285). In addition, we examined the effects of extreme temperatures, proximity to conspecific and Interior Least Tern ( Sternula antillarum athalassos , hereafter tern) nests, and temporal factors on nest survival. Plover nest survival did not differ between off-river sites and sandbars or amongst different off-river site types. Daily nest survival was 0.9818 (95% CI = 0.9729–0.9878) from 2008 to 2013 (unexclosed; n = 87) and 0.9950 (0.9918–0.9970) from 2014 to 2023 (exclosed; n = 198). Nest survival increased with the proportion of above average temperature days, increased with proximity to neighboring tern nests, and decreased with later nest initiation dates. Therefore, prioritizing early season nests, recognizing the benefits terns provide to plover nest survival, and monitoring the effect of climatic trends may aid future conservation efforts. Finally, as nest survival at off-river sites is comparable to sandbars, the predicted decline of habitat provided at off-river sites may reduce the overall breeding productivity and abundance of plovers in the lower Platte River system with ramifications to broader population viability.

Nebraska↗

USGS2025

Adult and hatch-year survival and fidelity of Piping Plovers Charadrius melodus in the lower Platte River system, Nebraska, USA

Knowledge of vital rates informs the conservation and management of threatened and endangered species. In the northern Great Plains, USA, the federally threatened Piping Plover Charadrius melodus uses a variety of nesting habitats including natural river sandbars and human-created sites in the lower Platte River system, Nebraska. In this area, off-river sandpit sites (i.e., active sand and gravel mines, transition sites, and lakeshore housing developments) are not managed to prioritize nesting and are often considered inferior habitat to sandbars. However, most Piping Plovers in the lower Platte River system nest off river, especially in years when sandbar habitat is limited. As the quantity of habitat provided at off-river sites is predicted to decline, evaluating vital rates among different off-river nesting habitats will inform future conservation efforts. We estimated annual survival and fidelity of adult (n = 165) and hatch-year (n = 671) Piping Plovers from 2008 to 2018 and within-season weekly survival of breeding adults (n = 271) from 2011 to 2024. Annual adult survival was 0.771 (95% CI = 0.733–0.804) and hatch-year survival was 0.394 (0.335–0.456). Fidelity to the study area was 0.737 (0.634–0.819) for adults and 0.261 (0.192–0.345) for hatch-years. Within-season apparent weekly survival was higher for Piping Plovers at lakeshore housing developments (0.946 [85% CI = 0.917–0.965]) than sand and gravel mines (0.909 [0.874–0.935]) and transition sites (0.881 [0.834–0.928]). Annual survival of adult and hatch-year birds were comparable to other studies and regions within the Northern Great Plains population, indicating no negative consequence of off-river nesting to survival. Considering that off-river habitats are important for the persistence of Piping Plovers in the lower Platte River system, continued monitoring of survival could help managers evaluate recovery implications under uncertain future habitat availability in the region.

Nebraska↗

USGS2025

Delineating ecologically-distinct groups for annual cycle management of a declining shorebird

1. Patterns of migratory connectivity are increasingly used to understand and manage threats throughout the annual cycle of migratory species. Strong migratory connectivity refers to when individuals from different populations remain spatially separated across the annual cycle, which may expose populations to unique sets of threats and conditions that cause differential population trends. However, the populations or groups used for species’ management are often defined a priori based on expert knowledge and/or management units, which may mask important population segregation and obscure differential population trends and their drivers. 2. We compared three approaches to defining management groups of a declining shorebird, the long-billed curlew ( Numenius americanus ), for annual cycle management: by expert-opinion, according to management flyways, and with unsupervised clustering of satellite tracking data that maximizes the strength of migratory connectivity. 3. Despite the curlews having a continuous breeding range and a pattern of parallel migration, all three approaches identified groups with different population trends, movement behaviours and habitat selection across the annual cycle, suggesting these are meaningful ecological groups. The expert and clustering approaches resulted in similar group structure, strong estimates of migratory connectivity (measured as MC = 0.64 across seasons), movement behaviour and habitat selection; however, the expert approach identified an additional divide between the easternmost grouping, which revealed strongly negative population trends in the group occupying the Chihuahuan desert during the stationary nonbreeding season. In contrast, the flyway delineation resulted in weaker estimates of migratory connectivity, marginal differences in population trends and less between-group differences in movement behaviour and habitat selection. 4. Synthesis and applications . Using measurements of migratory connectivity in concert with expert opinion can define ecologically distinct groups for wildlife management that differ in the environmental conditions they experience across seasons of the annual cycle, which is a key component for understanding and reversing declines of migratory species.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2025

Effects of nest exclosure on nest and adult survival of piping plover (Charadrius melodus) in the lower Platte River System, Nebraska

Conservation of imperiled species often includes management strategies intended to improve specific vital rates. However, some management practices can have unforeseen consequences that negate the intended benefit. For example, nest exclosures are often used for ground-nesting avian species to reduce nest predation but may increase depredation of adults. Tradeoffs between nest survival and adult mortality of nest exclosures likely depend on local predator community dynamics. Therefore, investigations are most informative when assessed in specific settings. Piping Plovers ( Charadrius melodus , hereafter plovers) in the lower Platte River system, Nebraska, nest at off-river sandpit sites, which provide an additional study system and habitat to assess the context-dependent effects of nest exclosures. The Tern and Plover Conservation Partnership monitors plovers at off-river sites by monitoring nests, installing nest exclosures, and banding and resighting. Effects of nest exclosures were tested on both nest survival, from 340 plover nests from 2008–2024, and weekly within-season apparent survival, from 71 breeding adults from 2011–2024. There was weak evidence that nest exclosures marginally improved nest survival but no evidence of an effect for within-season survival of breeding adults. Daily nest survival was slightly higher for exclosed nests (0.99, [85% CI = 0.98–0.99]) than unexclosed nests (0.98, [0.98–0.99]). Within-season apparent weekly survival for breeding plovers was 0.90 (95% CI = 0.83–0.93); cumulative survival over the breeding period was 0.51 (0.33–0.69). Nest exclosures may be used to increase nest survival at off-river sites with minimal threat to adult survival unless considerable concerns arise.

Nebraska↗

USGS2021

Impacts of extreme environmental disturbances on piping plover survival are partially moderated by migratory connectivity

Effective conservation for listed migratory species requires an understanding of how drivers of population decline vary spatially and temporally, as well as knowledge of range-wide connectivity between breeding and nonbreeding areas. Environmental conditions distant from breeding areas can have lasting effects on the demography of migratory species, yet these consequences are often the least understood. Our objectives were to 1) evaluate associations between survival and extreme environmental disturbances at nonbreeding areas, including hurricanes, harmful algal blooms, and oil spills, and 2) estimate migratory connectivity between breeding and nonbreeding areas of midcontinental piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus ). We used capture and resighting data from 5067 individuals collected between 2002 and 2019 from breeding areas across the midcontinent, and nonbreeding areas throughout the Gulf of Mexico and southern Atlantic coasts of North America. We developed a hidden Markov multistate model to estimate seasonal survival and account for unobservable geographic locations. Hurricanes and harmful algal blooms were negatively associated with nonbreeding season survival, but we did not detect a similarly negative relationship with oil spills. Our results indicated that individuals from separate breeding areas mixed across nonbreeding areas with low migratory connectivity. Mixing among individuals in the nonbreeding season may provide a buffering effect against impacts of extreme events on any one breeding region. Our results suggest that understanding migratory connectivity and linking seasonal threats to population dynamics can better inform conservation strategies for migratory shorebirds.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2017

Effects of climate change and anthropogenic modification on a disturbance-dependent species in a large riverine system

Humans have altered nearly every natural disturbance regime on the planet through climate and land-use change, and in many instances, these processes may have interacting effects. For example, projected shifts in temperature and precipitation will likely influence disturbance regimes already affected by anthropogenic fire suppression or river impoundments. Understanding how disturbance-dependent species respond to complex and interacting environmental changes is important for conservation efforts. Using field-based demographic and movement rates, we conducted a metapopulation viability analysis for piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus ), a threatened disturbance-dependent species, along the Missouri and Platte rivers in the Great Plains of North America. Our aim was to better understand current and projected future metapopulation dynamics given that natural disturbances (flooding or high-flow events) have been greatly reduced by river impoundments and that climate change could further alter the disturbance regime. Although metapopulation abundance has been substantially reduced under the current suppressed disturbance regime (high-flow return interval ~ 20 yr), it could grow if the frequency of high-flow events increases as predicted under likely climate change scenarios. We found that a four-year return interval would maximize metapopulation abundance, and all subpopulations in the metapopulation would act as sources at a return interval of 15 yr or less. Regardless of disturbance frequency, the presence of even a small, stable source subpopulation buffered the metapopulation and sustained a low metapopulation extinction risk. Therefore, climate change could have positive effects in ecosystems where disturbances have been anthropogenically suppressed when climatic shifts move disturbance regimes toward more historical patterns. Furthermore, stable source populations, even if unintentionally maintained through anthropogenic activities, may be critical for the persistence of metapopulations of early-successional species under both suppressed disturbance regimes and disturbance regimes where climate change has further altered disturbance frequency or scope.

Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota↗

USGS2016

Metapopulation viability of an endangered shorebird depends on dispersal and human-created habitats: Piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus ) and prairie rivers

Background Many species are distributed as metapopulations in dynamic landscapes, where habitats change through space and time. Individuals locate habitat through dispersal, and the relationship between a species and landscape characteristics can have profound effects on population persistence. Despite the importance of connectivity in dynamic environments, few empirical studies have examined temporal variability in dispersal or its effect on metapopulation dynamics. In response to this knowledge gap, we studied the dispersal, demography, and viability of a metapopulation of an endangered, disturbance-dependent shorebird. We examined three subpopulations of piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus ) on the lower Platte and Missouri rivers from 2008–2013. High flow events from an upstream dam on the Missouri River in 2010 and 2011 allowed us to assess the effect of total habitat loss and the subsequent creation of new habitat associated with a large disturbance at one ‘natural’ study location. The other two sites within the metapopulation, which were maintained by anthropogenic activities (e.g., mining, development, habitat restoration), were largely unaffected by this disturbance, resulting in a controlled natural experiment. Results High flow events were associated with increased emigration, decreased immigration, and decreased survival in the subpopulation that experienced high flows. Following the high flow event, immigration into that subpopulation increased. Dispersal rates among subpopulations were negatively correlated with distance. The metapopulation had a low probability of extinction over 100 years (0%) under the current disturbance interval and associated dispersal and survival rates. However, persistence depended on relatively stable, human-created habitats, not the dynamic, natural habitat (47.7 % extinction probability for this subpopulation). Conclusions We found that functional connectivity, as measured by the rate of dispersal among subpopulations, increased as a result of the high flow event in our study metapopulation. Plovers also increased reproductive output following this event. Although the study metapopulation had a low overall probability of extinction, metapopulation persistence depended on anthropogenically created habitats that provided a small but stable source of nesting habitat and dispersers through time. However, all subpopulations remained small, even if persistent, making them individually vulnerable to extinction through stochastic events. Given the highly dynamic nature of habitat availability in this system, maintaining several subpopulations within the metapopulation and stable sources of habitat will be critical, and this species will likely remain conservation-reliant.

Nebraska↗