Geology topics

Joel A. Schmutz

Publications and source records attributed to Joel A. Schmutz.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Previous reproductive success and environmental variation influence nest-site fidelity of a subarctic-nesting goose

Nest-site fidelity is a common strategy in birds and is believed to be adaptive due to familiarity with local conditions. Returning to previously successful nest sites (i.e., the win-stay lose-switch strategy) may be beneficial when habitat quality is spatially variable and temporally predictable; however, changes in environmental conditions may constrain dispersal decisions despite previous reproductive success. We used long-term (2000–2017) capture-mark-reencounter data and hierarchical models to examine fine-scale nest-site fidelity of emperor geese ( Anser canagicus ) on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta in Alaska. Our objectives were to quantify nest-site dispersal distances, determine whether dispersal distance is affected by previous nest fate, spring timing, or major flooding events on the study area, and determine if nest-site fidelity is adaptive in that it leads to higher nest survival. Consistent with the win-stay lose-switch strategy, expected dispersal distance for individuals that failed their nesting attempt in the previous year (207.9 m,14 95% HPDI:150.9–271.4) was greater than expected dispersal distance for individuals who nested successfully in the previous year (125.8 m, 95% HPDI:107.1–145.9). Expected dispersal distance was slightly greater following years of major flooding events for individuals that nested successfully, although this pattern was not observed for individuals who failed their nesting attempt. We did not find evidence that expected dispersal distance was influenced by spring timing. Importantly, dispersal distance was positively related to daily survival probability of emperor goose nests for individuals who failed their previous nesting attempt, suggesting an adaptive benefit to the win-stay lose-switch strategy. Our results highlight the importance of previous experience and environmental variation for informing dispersal decisions of a long-lived goose species. However, it is unclear if dispersal decisions based on previous experience will continue to be adaptive as variability in environmental conditions increases in northern breeding areas.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Nest traits and major flooding events influence nest survival of Emperor Geese while regional environmental variation linked to climate does not

The reproductive ecology of geese that breed in the Arctic and subarctic is likely susceptible to the effects of climate change, which is projected to alter the environmental conditions of northern latitudes. Nest survival is an important component of productivity in geese; however, the effects of regional environmental conditions on nest survival are not well understood for some species, including the Emperor Goose ( Anser canagicus ), a species of conservation concern that is endemic to the Bering Sea region. We estimated nest survival and examined how indices of regional environmental conditions, nest traits (nest age, initiation date, and maximum number of eggs in the nest), and researcher disturbance influenced daily survival probability (DSP) of Emperor Goose nests using hierarchical models and 24 years of nest monitoring data (1994–2017) from the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta (Y–K Delta) in western Alaska. Our results indicate that overall nest survival was generally high (µ = 0.766, 95% CRI: 0.655–0.849) and ranged from 0.327 (95% CRI: 0.176–0.482) in 2013 to 0.905 (95% CRI: 0.839–0.953) in 1995. We found that DSPs of nests were influenced by nest traits, negatively influenced by major tidal flooding events and by researcher disturbance, but were not influenced by regional indices of spring timing, temperature and precipitation during nesting, or fox and vole abundance on the Y–K Delta. However, the number of nests found each year was negatively related to our index of fox abundance, suggesting nests that failed as a result of fox predation may have never been discovered due to our limited nest-searching efforts during egg laying. Our results suggest that regional environmental variation had minimal influence on the nest survival of Emperor Geese, although major flooding events were important. Nevertheless, we suspect that within-year variation in local weather conditions and local abundance of predators and alternative prey may be important and should be considered in future studies.

Alaska↗

USGS2022

In hot water? Patterns of macroinvertebrate abundance in Arctic thaw ponds and relationships with environmental variables

Ongoing environmental change across the Arctic is affecting many freshwater ecosystems, including small thaw ponds that support macroinvertebrates, thus potentially affecting important forage for fish and bird species. To accurately predict how fish and wildlife that depend on these macroinvertebrates will be affected by ecosystem change at high latitudes, understanding proximate factors that influence macroinvertebrate abundance is critical. To better understand factors that affect spatial and seasonal (i.e. phenology) patterns in abundance, we collected macroinvertebrates throughout the growing season of a single year from 33 thaw ponds on the Arctic Coastal Plain in northern Alaska. We used hierarchical N -mixture models to provide detection-corrected estimates of abundance (of the population exposed to sampling) in relation to pond type and seasonal patterns in environmental variables (i.e., cumulative water temperature, nutrient levels) for five taxonomic groups representing key food items for birds and fish—Anostraca (Arthropoda: Branchiopoda), Chironomidae (Insecta: Diptera), Cladocera (Arthropoda: Branchiopoda), Limnephilidae (Insecta: Trichoptera), and Physidae (Mollusca: Gastropoda). For three of five taxa (Anostraca, Cladocera, Limnephilidae), abundance varied across pond types and was lower in pond types where water temperatures increased more rapidly. Further, seasonal temperature profiles in ponds affected phenology, suggesting that seasonal patterns in abundance were influenced by changes in water temperature. These findings suggest that increases in water temperature in northern areas could alter macroinvertebrate phenology, possibly with consequences for upper level predators if availability of macroinvertebrate prey is reduced or shifted seasonally. Our results will facilitate improved predictions of how changing abiotic conditions could affect inland waters in northern areas, a critical need for conservation of Arctic wildlife and ecosystems.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Arctic insect emergence timing and composition differs across thaw ponds of varying morphology

Freshwater ponds provide habitats for aquatic insects that emerge and subsidize consumers in terrestrial ecosystems. In the Arctic, insects provide an important seasonal source of energy to birds that breed and rear young on the tundra. The abundance and timing of insect emergence from arctic thaw ponds is poorly understood, but understanding these fluxes is important, given the role of insects in food webs and current rates of environmental change at high latitudes. We aimed to evaluate emerging insect communities from thaw ponds with different morphologies, identify environmental covariates influencing insect composition, and describe temporal changes in insect abundance. We collected environmental information and insects that emerged over two growing seasons and examined the phenology and taxonomic composition of insects arising from different pond classes: low centered polygon, small coalescent, large coalescent, and trough ponds. Our findings indicated no differences in the timing of total emergence across ponds of varying morphology. Community dissimilarity was primarily associated with center or margin habitat and variables that differed strongly among pond classes. These insects, which provide important provisions for various species of birds, are likely to experience changes in emergence phenology and composition due to ongoing, rapid warming in the region.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Red-throated loon (Gavia stellata) use of nearshore marine habitats—Results from a 2019 pilot study in northern Alaska

Red-throated loons ( Gavia stellata ) are a species of conservation concern in Alaska due to recent evidence of a population decline on the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) in northern Alaska. In 2019, the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service conducted a pilot study to evaluate diet and use of nearshore foraging areas as possible drivers of the population decline. We collected fat biopsies to examine diet of breeding red-throated loons using previously outlined methods. We also deployed GPS-Ultra High Frequency transmitters on red-throated loons for an initial understanding of detailed offshore marine habitat use during the breeding season. A broader research project on marine habitat use and fish diet of breeding red-throated loons will begin in 2021 on the Canning River Delta and in Foggy Island Bay, Alaska.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Shifts in the wintering distribution and abundance of Emperor Geese in Alaska

For wildlife species that winter at northern latitudes, harsh overwinter conditions can play an important role in population dynamics. Recent changes in global temperatures have resulted in distributional shifts of wildlife species, as well as amelioration of winter climates in northern landscapes. The emperor goose ( Anser canagicus ), an endemic migratory bird of the Bering Sea region, winters across a large area of the subarctic, with potential differences in migration strategies and costs among individuals. As a long-standing species of conservation concern due to decreased population size, understanding the response of emperor geese to changing conditions has become critical to on-going management. We sought to evaluate changes in wintering distribution and arrival/departure dates over time, by comparing spatial and temporal patterns of wintering emperor geese from 2015 to 2017 (using geolocator data) to satellite telemetry data collected from 1999 to 2004. Further, we quantified changes in spatial patterns of winter abundance by comparing historical and contemporary aerial and ground surveys at three island complexes encompassing most of their winter distribution. Our results indicate that emperor geese are arriving at wintering areas earlier and spending more time at these areas than in the past. Our comparisons among historical aerial and ground surveys suggests that increasing numbers of emperor geese are wintering closer to breeding areas in western Alaska; a change likely related to increasing habitat availability due to shifting environmental conditions. Our results also showed that fewer emperor geese are using an area in the core of their wintering range, suggesting either decreased habitat quality or a reduction in migration distance via alternative wintering locations. Overall, our study highlights a rapid response to apparent habitat change likely due to warming temperatures and a reduction in ice cover and emphasizes the importance of understanding complex interactions among migration distance, the environment, and habitat in interpreting site selection.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Effects of fish populations on Pacific Loon (Gavia pacifica) and Yellow-billed Loon (G. adamsii) lake occupancy and chick production in northern Alaska

Predator populations are vulnerable to changes in prey distribution or availability. With warming temperatures, lake ecosystems in the Arctic are predicted to change in terms of hydrologic flow, water levels, and connectivity with other lakes. We surveyed lakes in northern Alaska to understand how shifts in the distribution or availability of fish may affect the occupancy and breeding success of Pacific ( Gavia pacifica ) and Yellow-billed Loons ( G. adamsii ). We then modeled the influence of the presence and abundance of five fish species and the physical characteristics of lakes (e.g., hydrologic connectivity) on loon lake occupancy and chick production. The presence of Alaska blackfish ( Dallia pectoralis ) had a positive influence on Pacific Loon occupancy and chick production, which suggests that small-bodied fish species provide important prey for loon chicks. No characteristics of fish species abundance affected Yellow-billed Loon lake occupancy. Instead, Yellow-billed Loon occupancy was influenced by the physical characteristics of lakes that contribute to persistent fish populations, such as the size of the lake and the proportion of the lake that remained unfrozen over winter. Neither of these variables, however, influenced chick production. The probability of an unoccupied territory becoming occupied in a subsequent year by Yellow-billed Loons was low, and no loon chicks were successfully raised in territories that were previously unoccupied. In contrast, unoccupied territories had a much higher probability of becoming occupied by Pacific Loons, which suggests that Yellow-billed Loons have strict habitat requirements and suitable breeding lakes may be limited. Territories that were occupied had high probabilities of remaining occupied for both loon species.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Early goose arrival increases soil nitrogen availability more than an advancing spring in coastal western Alaska

An understudied aspect of climate change-induced phenological mismatch is its effect on ecosystem functioning, such as nitrogen (N) cycling. Migratory herbivore arrival time may alter N inputs and plant–herbivore feedbacks, whereas earlier springs are predicted to increase N cycling rates through warmer temperatures. However, the relative importance of these shifts in timing and how they interact to affect N cycling are largely unknown. We conducted a 3-year factorial experiment in coastal western Alaska that simulated different timings of Pacific black brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ) arrival (3 weeks early, typical, 3 weeks late, or no-grazing) and the growing season (ca. 3 weeks advanced and ambient) on adsorbed and mobile inorganic (NH 4 + –N, NO 3 − –N) and mobile organic N (amino acid) pools. Early grazing increased NH 4 + –N, NO 3 − –N, and amino acids by 103%, 119%, and 7%, respectively, whereas late grazing reduced adsorbed NH 4 + –N and NO 3 − –N by 16% and 17%, respectively. In comparison, the advanced growing season increased mobile NH 4 + –N by 26%. The arrival time by geese and the start of the season did not interact to influence soil N availability. While the onset of spring in our system is advancing at twice the rate of migratory goose arrival, earlier goose migration is likely to be more significant than the advances in springs in influencing soil N, although both early goose arrival and advanced springs are likely to increase N availability in the future. This increase in soil N resources can have a lasting impact on plant community composition and productivity in this N-limited ecosystem.

Coastal western Alaska↗

USGS2020

Movements and habitat use of loons for assessment of conservation buffer zones in the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska

Oil and gas development in the Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska, may pose threats to wildlife. Management guidelines within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska dictate buffer zones for coastal wildlife habitat and for breeding and foraging sites of yellow-billed loons (YBLOs; Gavia adamsii), a species of conservation concern. However, few data exist to assess the value of these buffer zones for YBLOs or for sympatrically breeding red-throated loons (RTLOs; G. stellata) and Pacific loons (PALOs; G. pacifica). We evaluated movements of these loons on the Arctic Coastal Plain to understand: 1) seasonal timing; 2) marine habitat use; and 3) spatial characteristics of breeding home ranges. We then used those findings to evaluate current management strategies in the context of loon biology. Compared to RTLOs and PALOs, YBLOs nested on larger lakes, stayed on them longer, had larger home ranges, but less frequently used the marine environment in summer. During autumn, YBLOs and PALOs were located farther from shore than during spring or summer, whereas RTLOs used the marine environment similarly during all three seasons. Management buffers established for YBLO nesting areas corresponded well with nest site space use of all three species, suggesting cross-taxa applicability of current management guidelines for nesting habitat. However, the majority of loon locations on the Arctic Coastal Plain were outside of coastal buffer zones established to protect fish and wildlife habitat within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska. These findings can inform assessment of conservation buffer zones to mitigate anthropogenic disturbance to loons in Alaska.

Alaska↗

USGS2019

Synthesis of maternal transfer of mercury in birds: Implications for altered toxicity risk

Maternal transfer is the predominant route of methylmercury (MeHg) exposure to offspring. We reviewed and synthesized published and unpublished data on maternal transfer of MeHg in birds. Using paired samples of females’ blood (n=564) and their eggs (n=1814) from 26 bird species in 6 taxonomic orders, we conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate whether maternal transfer of MeHg to eggs differed among species and caused differential toxicity risk to embryos. Total mercury (THg) concentrations in eggs increased with maternal blood THg concentrations; however, the proportion of THg transferred from females to their eggs differed among bird taxa and with maternal THg exposure. Specifically, a smaller proportion of maternal THg was transferred to eggs with increasing female THg concentrations. Additionally, the proportion of THg that was transferred to eggs at the same maternal blood THg concentration differed among taxonomic orders, with waterfowl (Anseriformes) transferring up to 382% more THg into their eggs than songbirds (Passeriformes). We provide equations to predict THg concentrations in eggs using female blood THg concentrations, and vice versa, which may help translate toxicity benchmarks across tissues and life stages. Our results indicate that toxicity risk of MeHg can vary among bird taxa due to differences in the maternal transfer of MeHg to offspring.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2019

Cloud cover and delayed herbivory relative to timing of spring onset interact to dampen climate change impacts on net ecosystem exchange in a coastal Alaskan wetland

Rapid warming in northern ecosystems over the past four decades has resulted in earlier spring, increased precipitation, and altered timing of plant–animal interactions, such as herbivory. Advanced spring phenology can lead to longer growing seasons and increased carbon (C) uptake. Greater precipitation coincides with greater cloud cover possibly suppressing photosynthesis. Timing of herbivory relative to spring phenology influences plant biomass. None of these changes are mutually exclusive and their interactions could lead to unexpected consequences for Arctic ecosystem function. We examined the influence of advanced spring phenology, cloud cover, and timing of grazing on C exchange in the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta of western Alaska for three years. We combined advancement of the growing season using passive-warming open-top chambers (OTC) with controlled timing of goose grazing (early, typical, and late season) and removal of grazing. We also monitored natural variation in incident sunlight to examine the C exchange consequences of these interacting forcings. We monitored net ecosystem exchange of C (NEE) hourly using an autochamber system. Data were used to construct daily light curves for each experimental plot and sunlight data coupled with a clear-sky model was used to quantify daily and seasonal NEE over a range of incident sunlight conditions. Cloudy days resulted in the largest suppression of NEE, reducing C uptake by approximately 2 g C m −2 d −1 regardless of the timing of the season or timing of grazing. Delaying grazing enhanced C uptake by approximately 3 g C m −2 d −1 . Advancing spring phenology reduced C uptake by approximately 1.5 g C m −2 d −1 , but only when plots were directly warmed by the OTCs; spring advancement did not have a long-term influence on NEE. Consequently, the two strongest drivers of NEE, cloud cover and grazing, can have opposing effects and thus future growing season NEE will depend on the magnitude of change in timing of grazing and incident sunlight.

Alaska↗

USGS2019

Ecosystem scale loss of grazing habitat impacted by abundance of dominant herbivores

Grazing lawns, patches of grazing tolerant plants with high nutrient value, provide important habitat for herbivores, and changes in abundance can impact herbivore populations. Grazing lawns are maintained in quality and quantity by repeated grazing and are a result of a positive feedback since the availability of grazing lawn can increase herbivore populations and increased herbivore populations can result in an increase in grazing lawn extent. We sampled aerial imagery from a long-term dataset (>20 yrs) at an internationally important breeding area for avian herbivores to model changes in grazing lawn abundance over time and identify the possible factors impacting those changes, including numbers of breeding birds, their primary predator, and spring phenology. Our data suggests that avian herbivores and their predators likely exert strong impacts on plant communities and may drive vegetation abundance. Decreases in the number of herbivore nests in our study coincided with an almost complete lack of grazing lawn in the mid-2000s. Any factors dictating the amount of grazing lawn available for avian herbivores could strongly influence breeding success and the maximum size of these populations. Our results demonstrate the importance of studying complex interactions among predators, herbivores and plants, and population moderation by both bottom-up and top-down processes.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2019

Emperor geese (Anser canagicus) are exposed to a diversity of influenza A viruses, are infected during the non-breeding period and contribute to intercontinental viral dispersal

Emperor geese ( Anser canagicus ) are endemic to coastal areas within Beringia and have previously been found to have antibodies to or to be infected with influenza A viruses (IAVs) in Alaska. In this study, we use virological, serological and tracking data to further elucidate the role of emperor geese in the ecology of IAVs in Beringia during the non‐breeding period. Specifically, we assess evidence for: (a) active IAV infection during spring staging, autumn staging and wintering periods; (b) infection with novel Eurasian‐origin or interhemispheric reassortant viruses; (c) contemporary movement of geese between East Asia and North America; (d) previous exposure to viruses of 14 haemagglutinin subtypes, including Eurasian lineage highly pathogenic (HP) H5 IAVs; and (e) subtype‐specific antibody seroconversion and seroreversion. Emperor geese were found to shed IAVs, including interhemispheric reassortant viruses, throughout the non‐breeding period; migrate between Alaska and the Russian Far East prior to and following remigial moult; have antibodies reactive to a diversity of IAVs including, in a few instances, Eurasian lineage HP H5 IAVs; and exhibit relatively broad and stable patterns of population immunity among breeding females. Results of this study suggest that emperor geese may play an important role in the maintenance and dispersal of IAVs within Beringia during the non‐breeding period and provide information that may be used to further optimize surveillance activities focused on the early detection of Eurasian‐origin IAVs in North America.

Alaska↗

USGS2019

Phenological mismatch between season advancement and migration timing alters Arctic plant traits

1. Climate change is creating phenological mismatches between herbivores and their plant resources throughout the Arctic. While advancing growing seasons and changing arrival times of migratory herbivores has been shown to have consequences for herbivores and forage quality, developing mismatches are also likely to influence other traits of plants, such as above- and belowground biomass and the type of reproduction, that are often not investigated. 2. In coastal western Alaska, we conducted a three-year factorial experiment that simulated scenarios of phenological mismatch by manipulating the start of the growing season (ca. 3-weeks early and ambient) and grazing times (3-weeks early, typical, 3-weeks late, or no-grazing) of Pacific black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans), to examine how the timing of these events influence a primary goose forage species, Carex subspathacea. 3. After three years, an advanced growing season compared to a typical growing season increased stem heights, standing dead biomass, and the number of inflorescences. Early season grazing compared to typical season grazing reduced above- and belowground biomass, stem height, and the number of tillers; while late season grazing increased the number of inflorescences and standing dead biomass by year 3. Therefore, an advanced growing season and late grazing had comparable directional effects on most plant traits, but a 3-week delay in grazing had an impact on vegetation traits 3 to 5 times greater than a similar shift in advancement of spring conditions. In addition, changes in response to treatments for some variables, such as the number of inflorescences, were not measurable until the second year of the experiment, while other variables, such as root productivity and number of tillers, changed the direction of their responses to treatments over time. 4. Synthesis: Factors influencing the timing of migration have a larger influence on an important forage species than earlier springs in the breeding and rearing habitats of Pacific black brant. The phenological mismatch prediction for this site of earlier springs and later goose arrival will likely increase above- and belowground biomass and sexual reproduction of C. subspathacea. Implications for mismatch may be difficult to predict because some variables required successive years of mismatch to respond.

Journal of Ecology↗

USGS2019

Changes in behavior are unable to disrupt a trophic cascade involving a specialist herbivore and its food plant

Changes in ecological conditions can induce changes in behavior and demography of wild organisms, which in turn may influence population dynamics. Pacific black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) nesting in colonies on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) in western Alaska have declined substantially (~50%) since the turn of the century. Pacific black brant are herbivores that rely heavily on Carex subspathacea (Hoppner’s sedge) during growth and development. The availability of C. subspathacea affects gosling growth rates, which subsequently affect pre- and post-fledging survival, as well as size and breeding probability as an adult. We predicted that long-term declines in C. subspathacea have affected gosling growth rates, despite the potential of behavior to buffer changes in food availability during brood rearing. We used Bayesian hierarchical mixed-effects models to examine long-term (1987 – 2015) shifts in brant behavior during brood-rearing, forage availability, and gosling growth rates at the Tutakoke River colony. We showed that locomotion behaviors have increased (β = 0.05, 95% CRI 0.032 – 0.068) while resting behaviors have decreased (β = -0.024, 95% CRI -0.041 – -0.007), potentially in response to long-term shifts in forage availability and brood density. Concurrently, gosling growth rates have decreased substantially (β = -0.096, 95% CRI -0.198 – -0.014) despite shifts in behavior, mirroring long-term declines in the abundance of C. subspathacea (β = -0.194, 95% CRI -0.350 – -0.037). These results have important implications for individual fitness and population viability, where shifts in gosling behavior putatively fail to mitigate long-term declines in forage availability.

Article↗

USGS2019

Migratory goose arrival time plays a larger role in influencing forage quality than advancing springs in an Arctic coastal wetland

With warmer springs, herbivores migrating to Arctic breeding grounds may experience phenological mismatches between their energy demands and the availability of high quality forage. However, the timing of high quality forage relative to the timing of grazing is often unknown. In coastal western Alaska, approximately one million migratory geese arrive each spring to breed where foliar %N and C:N ratios are linked to gosling survival and population growth. We conducted a three-year experiment where we manipulated the start of the growing season using warming chambers and grazing times using captive Pacific black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) to examine how the timing of these events influences the quality of an important forage species. Our results suggest that grazing timing plays a much greater role than an advanced growing season in determining forage quality. Both top models included grazing timing, and suggested that compared to typical grazing timing, early grazing significantly reduced foliar %C by 6% and C:N ratios by 16%, while late goose grazing significantly reduced foliar %N by 15% and increased foliar C:N ratios by 21%. While the second-ranking top model included the effect of season, the advanced growing season only reduced %N by 4%, increased %C by <1%, and increased C:N ratios by 5% compared to an ambient growing season. In summary, in years where geese arrive early, they will consume higher quality forage when they arrive and throughout the season, while in years that geese arrive late they will consume lower quality forage when they arrive and for the remainder of the season. When the growing season starts has only a minor influence on this pattern. Our findings suggest that cues determining migration and arrival times to breeding areas are important factors influencing forage quality for geese in western Alaska.

Alaska↗

USGS2019

The Yellow-billed Loon

The Yellow-billed Loon, known in Europe as the White-billed Diver, is a relatively rare bird nesting in arctic tundra regions of North America and Eurasia. This species was first described by G. R. Gray in 1859 ( 1 ), and named ( Gavia adamsii ) after the surgeon Dr. Edward Adams (who collected the first specimen) aboard the H.M.S. Enterprise on a voyage through Bering Strait. The Yellow-billed Loon is closely related and similar in appearance to the Common Loon ( G. immer ), but distinguished from the latter by bill shape and color. Further, the Yellow-billed Loon breeds generally north of the range of its more widespread relative, although the 2 species overlap on marine wintering grounds in the Pacific Northwest. Increasingly, however, vagrant Yellow-billed Loons have been recorded wintering well inland in North America, a phenomenon that likely stems in part from improved information on field identification of loons in Basic plumage.

Birds of North America↗

USGS2019

Improving population estimates of threatened spectacled eiders: Correcting aerial counts for visibility bias

Listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 1993, the Spectacled Eider (Somateria fischeri) population in western Alaska has since rebounded, prompting an assessment of their suitability for delisting. This assessment, however, is limited by aerial-based population estimates that are incompletely corrected for unobserved eiders. Notably, aerial counts of eiders are corrected with a visibility correction factor (VCF), calculated as the ratio of ground-based nest counts to aerial pair counts, which disregards spatial variation in eider density. Accordingly, we (1) stratified our study area into zones of low, medium, and high eider density, (2) developed density-adjusted VCFs for each stratum, (3) evaluated the influence of several ecological factors on VCFs, and (4) estimated eider population size using our density-adjusted VCFs. For the low-density stratum, we estimated a VCF (± SE) of 1.35 ± 0.15, indicating that aerial counts of eider pairs closely matched ground counts of nests. In medium and high-density strata, VCFs increased to 2.46 ± 0.17 and 3.09 ± 0.19, respectively, suggesting that aerial detection decreased as eider densities increased. VCFs also increased for surveys that occurred late relative to nest initiation. Population estimates produced with our density-adjusted VCFs were 42% (5580 eiders) lower, on average, than those produced with the traditional VCF, which is currently used. Such large differences underscore the importance of accounting for density when correcting counts for incomplete detection, and, for threatened species such as Spectacled Eiders, may determine whether populations retain protected status.

Endangered Species Research↗