Geology topics

Jillian Elizabeth Fleming

Publications and source records attributed to Jillian Elizabeth Fleming.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

An analysis of the linked decisions in the confiscation of illegally traded turtles

Over the last few decades, freshwater turtles have become more common in the illegal wildlife trade because of growing global demand. Illegally traded turtles may be intercepted by several different agencies with separate jurisdictions. When turtles are confiscated, uncertainties may make releasing them back to the wild difficult. We used tools from decision analysis to achieve the following three objectives: (1) map elements of the decision process and their relationships in the illegal turtle trade using conceptual models, (2) outline the linked decisions for turtle confiscation and repatriation using decision trees, and (3) evaluate the decision trees for two example scenarios, one with moderate uncertainty and one with high uncertainty. We used the wood turtle ( Glyptemys insculpta ) as a case study, which is a species of conservation concern in part due to illegal wildlife trafficking. We conducted 23 semi-structured interviews of decision makers in law enforcement, biologists, land managers, and zoo staff. Interviews revealed that decisions regarding the disposition of confiscated turtles are complicated by uncertainty in disease status and origin. Decision makers that handle confiscated turtles also recognize that their decisions are often made in sequence and dependent on the outcome of antecedent decisions. In evaluating our decision trees, we found that the optimal decisions for example scenarios were similar and insensitive to uncertainty. Future applications of the decision trees by decision makers would involve a decision analyst to parameterize and interpret the choices and consequences involved in working through these decision trees. Collectively, our work shows how the use of decision trees can help structure and evaluate risky decisions for repatriating confiscated wildlife.

Conservation Science and Practice↗

USGS2025

Independent and interactive effects of disease and methylmercury on demographic rates across multiple amphibian populations

Disease, alone or combined with other stressors such as habitat loss and contaminants, affects wildlife populations worldwide. However, interactions among stressors and how they affect demography and populations remain poorly understood. The amphibian chytrid fungus ( Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ; Bd) is a sometimes-lethal pathogen linked with population declines and extirpations of amphibians globally. Laboratory evidence shows ubiquitous contaminants like methylmercury (MeHg) can reduce vigor and survival of amphibians, but population-level effects remain unclear. We used non-lethal sampling to assess how Bd and MeHg affected survival of juvenile and adult amphibians in 20 populations across the USA. Survival of several species declined with increasing Bd loads, including some species previously considered resistant to Bd (e.g., eastern newt [ Notophthalmus viridescens ]). Although our sampling for MeHg was less intensive than for Bd, we found MeHg can both directly reduce survival and synergistically magnify the effects of Bd infection. For a population of foothill yellow-legged frogs ( Rana boylii ), the estimated reduction in survival from MeHg exceeded that from Bd. Although effects varied widely among populations and species, our results help clarify the potential for synergistic effects of disease and contaminants and emphasize the complexity of identifying and quantifying the population-level effects of interactions among stressors.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2024

Range-wide salamander densities reveal a key component of terrestrial vertebrate biomass in eastern North American forests

Characterizing the population density of species is a central interest in ecology. Eastern North America is the global hotspot for biodiversity of plethodontid salamanders, an inconspicuous component of terrestrial vertebrate communities, and among the most widespread is the eastern red-backed salamander, Plethodon cinereus . Previous work suggests population densities are high with significant geographic variation, but comparisons among locations are challenged by lack of standardization of methods and failure to accommodate imperfect detection. We present results from a large-scale research network that accounts for detection uncertainty using systematic survey protocols and robust statistical models. We analysed mark–recapture data from 18 study areas across much of the species range. Estimated salamander densities ranged from 1950 to 34 300 salamanders ha −1 , with a median of 9965 salamanders ha −1 . We compared these results to previous estimates for P. cinereus and other abundant terrestrial vertebrates. We demonstrate that overall the biomass of P. cinereus , a secondary consumer, is of similar or greater magnitude to widespread primary consumers such as white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) and Peromyscus mice, and two to three orders of magnitude greater than common secondary consumer species. Our results add empirical evidence that P. cinereus , and amphibians in general, are an outsized component of terrestrial vertebrate communities in temperate ecosystems.

Biology Letters↗

USGS2023

Broad-scale assessment of methylmercury in adult amphibians

Mercury (Hg) is a toxic contaminant that has been mobilized and distributed worldwide and is a threat to many wildlife species. Amphibians are facing unprecedented global declines due to many threats including contaminants. While the biphasic life history of many amphibians creates a potential nexus for methylmercury (MeHg) exposure in aquatic habitats and subsequent health effects, the broad-scale distribution of MeHg exposure in amphibians remains unknown. We used nonlethal sampling to assess MeHg bioaccumulation in 3,241 juvenile and adult amphibians during 2017–2021. We sampled 26 populations (14 species) across 11 states in the United States, including several imperiled species that could not have been sampled by traditional lethal methods. We examined whether life history traits of species and whether the concentration of total mercury in sediment or dragonflies could be used as indicators of MeHg bioaccumulation in amphibians. Methylmercury contamination was widespread, with a 33-fold difference in concentrations across sites. Variation among years and clustered subsites was less than variation across sites. Life history characteristics such as size, sex, and whether the amphibian was a frog, toad, newt, or other salamander were the factors most strongly associated with bioaccumulation. Total Hg in dragonflies was a reliable indicator of bioaccumulation of MeHg in amphibians (R 2 ≥ 0.67), whereas total Hg in sediment was not (R 2 ≤ 0.04). Our study, the largest broad-scale assessment of MeHg bioaccumulation in amphibians, highlights methodological advances that allow for nonlethal sampling of rare species and reveals immense variation among species, life histories, and sites. Our findings can help identify sensitive populations and provide environmentally relevant concentrations for future studies to better quantify the potential threats of MeHg to amphibians.

Environmental Science and Technology↗

USGS2022

Evaluating the effect of expert elicitation techniques on population status assessment in the face of large uncertainty

Population projection models are important tools for conservation and management. They are often used for population status assessments, for threat analyses, and to predict the consequences of conservation actions. Although conservation decisions should be informed by science, critical decisions are often made with very little information to support decision-making. Conversely, postponing decisions until better information is available may reduce the benefit of a conservation decision. When empirical data are limited or lacking, expert elicitation can be used to supplement existing data and inform model parameter estimates. The use of rigorous techniques for expert elicitation that account for uncertainty can improve the quality of the expert elicited values and therefore the accuracy of the projection models. One recurring challenge for summarizing expert elicited values is how to aggregate them. Here, we illustrate a process for population status assessment using a combination of expert elicitation and data from the ecological literature. We discuss the importance of considering various aggregation techniques, and illustrate this process using matrix population models for the wood turtle ( Glyptemys insculpta ) to assist U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service decision-makers with their Species Status Assessment. We compare estimates of population growth using data from the ecological literature and four alternative aggregation techniques for the expert-elicited values. The estimate of population growth rate based on estimates from the literature (λ mean = 0.952, 95% CI: 0.87–1.01) could not be used to unequivocally reject the hypotheses of a rapidly declining population nor the hypothesis of a stable, or even slightly growing population, whereas our results for the expert-elicited estimates supported the hypothesis that the wood turtle population will decline over time. Our results showed that the aggregation techniques used had an impact on model estimates, suggesting that the choice of techniques should be carefully considered. We discuss the benefits and limitations associated with each method and their relevance to the population status assessment. We note a difference in the temporal scope or inference between the literature-based estimates that provided insights about historical changes, whereas the expert-based estimates were forward looking. Therefore, conducting an expert-elicitation in addition to using parameter estimates from the literature improved our understanding of our species of interest.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2022

Range-wide population projections for Northern Red-Bellied Cooters (Pseudemys rubriventris)

Northern Red-Bellied Cooters ( Pseudemys rubriventris ) have a disjunct distribution with a relictual population in southeastern Massachusetts and a larger range across the mid-Atlantic United States. The relictual population is currently listed with protections under the U.S. Endangered Species Act but the status of the population in the remainder of the species' range has not been assessed, and there is concern that it may be at risk of extinction without protection. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service requires scientific information of the species' status to inform conservation decisions. There is little empirical information available from P. rubriventris populations and, furthermore, the majority of what exists comes from the disjunct northern subpopulation. To fill data gaps in the species' life history and reduce geographic bias, we supplement available data from P. rubriventris with demographic rate estimates from other Pseudemys species to parameterize an age-structured population projection model. Our estimate of mean population growth rate was 0.987 (0.92–1.04), indicating that P. rubriventris populations may be in decline. However, there was considerable uncertainty in our results, with 35% of projections resulting in stable or increasing populations. Additional uncertainty about parameter values, geographic variation, and current threats limit the assessment. We discuss the merits and limitations of our population projection modeling (PPM) approach where other analytical methods are precluded by lack of available data.

Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, North Carolin↗

USGS2021

Experimental evaluation of spatial capture–recapture study design

A principal challenge impeding strong inference in analyses of wild populations is the lack of robust and long-term data sets. Recent advancements in analytical tools used in wildlife science may increase our ability to integrate smaller data sets and enhance the statistical power of population estimates. One such advancement, the development of spatial capture–recapture (SCR) methods, explicitly accounts for differences in spatial study designs, making it possible to equate multiple study designs in one analysis. SCR has been shown to be robust to variation in design as long as minimal sampling guidance is adhered to. However, these expectations are based on simulation and have yet to be evaluated in wild populations. Here we conduct a rigorously designed field experiment by manipulating the arrangement of artificial cover objects (ACOs) used to collect data on red-backed salamanders ( Plethodon cinereus ) to empirically evaluate the effects of design configuration on inference made using SCR. Our results suggest that, using SCR, estimates of space use and detectability are sensitive to study design configuration, namely the spacing and extent of the array, and that caution is warranted when assigning biological interpretation to these parameters. However, estimates of population density remain robust to design except when the configuration of detectors grossly violates existing recommendations.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2020

A latent process model approach to improve the utility of indicator species

The state of an ecosystem is governed by dynamic biotic and abiotic processes, which can only be partially observed. Costs associated with measuring each component limit the feasibility of comprehensive assessments of target ecosystems. Instead, indicator species are recommended as a surrogate index. While this is an attractive concept, indicator species have rarely proven to be an effective tool for monitoring ecosystems and informing management decisions. One deficiency in the existing theoretical development of indicator species may be overcome with the incorporation of latent (i.e. unobservable) states. Advancements in quantitative ecological models allow for latent‐state models to be tested empirically, facilitating the robust evaluation and practical use of indicator species for ecosystem science and management. Here, we extend the existing conceptual models of indicator species to include a direct relationship between an indicator species, ecosystem change drivers and latent processes and variables. Our approach includes explicit consideration of important estimation uncertainty and narrows the range of values a latent variable may take by relating it to measurable attribute(s) of an indicator species. We demonstrate the utility of this approach by relating a commonly cited indicator species, the red‐backed salamander Plethodon cinereus , to a typical latent process of interest – ecosystem health.

Oikos↗

USGS2020

Moving from decision to action in conservation science

Biodiversity loss is a major threat to the integrity of ecosystems and is projected to worsen, yet the path to successful conservation remains elusive. Decision support frameworks (DSFs) are increasingly applied by resource managers to navigate the complexity, uncertainty, and differing socio-ecological objectives inherent to conservation problems. Most published conservation research that uses DSFs focuses on analytical stages (e.g., identifying an optimal decision), making it difficult to assess and learn from previous examples in a conservation practice context. Here, we (1) evaluate the relationship between the application of decision science and the resulting conservation outcomes, and (2) identify and address existing barriers to the application of DSFs to conservation practice. To do this, we develop a framework for evaluating conservation initiatives using decision science that emphasizes setting attainable goals, building momentum, and obtaining partner buy-in. We apply this framework to a systematic review of amphibian conservation decision support projects, including a follow-up survey of the pertinent conservation practitioners, stakeholders, and scientists. We found that all projects identified optimal solutions to reach stated objectives, but positive conservation outcomes were limited when implementation challenges arose. Further, we identified multiple barriers (e.g., dynamic and hierarchical leadership, scale complexity, limited resource availability) that can inhibit the progression from decision identification to action implementation (i.e., ‘decision-implementation gap’), and to successful conservation outcomes. Based on these results, we provide potential actionable steps and avenues for future development of DSFs to facilitate the transition from decision to action and the realization of conservation successes.

Biological Conservation↗