Geology topics

Jessi L. Brown

Publications and source records attributed to Jessi L. Brown.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

American kestrel population trends and vital rates at the continental scale

The American kestrel ( Falco sparverius , hereafter referred to as kestrel) has declined across much of its North American range since at least the mid-1960s. Kestrel population dynamics have been explored through a multitude of local studies and two broad reviews of available data. Across large geographic extents, however, the demographic cause(s) of kestrel population declines remain(s) largely unknown. As part of a collaborative effort to elucidate the drivers of kestrel population declines, we developed a continental-scale integrated population model using band-recovery data, productivity data, and Breeding Bird Survey indices from 1986 to 2019 to estimate indices of annual population sizes, survival, and productivity rates across the continental United States. We detected a decline in population size of ~1%–2% per year. Overall estimates of population growth from 1986 to 2019 suggest a 29% decline in population size (95% CI = −34% to −23%). There was little evidence of a trend in brood size. However, survival of juvenile birds (mean = −0.015, SD = 0.008 and mean = −0.024, SD = 0.010 for females and males, respectively) and adult males (mean = −0.016, SD = 0.010) in the summer declined, suggesting that these vital rates could be contributing to declines in populations over time. Winter adult survival rates (mean = −0.004, SD = 0.009 and mean = −0.009, SD = 0.010 for females and males, respectively) also declined but to a lesser extent than summer survival. For juvenile birds, winter survival increased (mean = 0.006, SD = 0.008 and mean = 0.002, SD = 0.009 for females and males, respectively); however, this was not enough to offset declines in summer survival and annual survival rates declined over the time series. Annual adult survival was also low relative to previous research on kestrel survival rates. Given the importance of survival to population trends, our findings provide support for several previously proposed broad classes of factors potentially contributing to observed population declines: declines in arthropod prey, second-generation rodenticides, neonicotinoid insecticides, and predation.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2024

Declining ecological resilience and invasion resistance under climate change in the sagebrush region, United States

In water-limited dryland ecosystems of the Western United States, climate change is intensifying the impacts of heat, drought, and wildfire. Disturbances often lead to increased abundance of invasive species, in part, because dryland restoration and rehabilitation are inhibited by limited moisture and infrequent plant recruitment events. Information on ecological resilience to disturbance (recovery potential) and resistance to invasive species can aid in addressing these challenges by informing long-term restoration and conservation planning. Here, we quantified the impacts of projected future climate on ecological resilience and invasion resistance (R&R) in the sagebrush region using novel algorithms based on ecologically relevant and climate-sensitive predictors of climate and ecological drought. We used a process-based ecohydrological model to project these predictor variables and resulting R&R indicators for two future climate scenarios and 20 climate models. Results suggested widespread future R&R decreases (24%–34% of the 1.16 million km 2 study area) that are generally consistent among climate models. Variables related to rising temperatures were most strongly linked to decreases in R&R indicators. New continuous R&R indices quantified responses to climate change; particularly useful for areas without projected change in the R&R category but where R&R still may decrease, for example, some of the areas with a historically low R&R category. Additionally, we found that areas currently characterized as having high sagebrush ecological integrity had the largest areal percentage with expected declines in R&R in the future, suggesting continuing declines in sagebrush ecosystems. One limitation of these R&R projections was relatively novel future climatic conditions in particularly hot and dry areas that were underrepresented in the training data. Including more data from these areas in future updates could further improve the reliability of the projections. Overall, these projected future declines in R&R highlight a growing challenge for natural resource managers in the region, and the resulting spatially explicit datasets provide information that can improve long-term risk assessments, prioritizations, and climate adaptation efforts.

western United States↗

USGS2024

Predicting the spatial distribution of wintering golden eagles to inform full annual cycle conservation in western North America

Wildlife conservation strategies focused on one season or population segment may fail to adequately protect populations, especially when a species’ habitat preferences vary among seasons, age-classes, geographic regions, or other factors. Conservation of golden eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) is an example of such a complex scenario, in which the distribution, habitat use, and migratory strategies of this species of conservation concern vary by age-class, reproductive status, region, and season. Nonetheless, research aimed at mapping priority use areas to inform management of golden eagles in western North America has typically focused on territory-holding adults during the breeding period, largely to the exclusion of other seasons and life-history groups. To support population-wide conservation planning across the full annual cycle for golden eagles, we developed a distribution model for individuals in a season not typically evaluated–winter–and in an area of the interior western U.S. that is a high priority for conservation of the species. We used a large GPS-telemetry dataset and library of environmental variables to develop a machine-learning model to predict spatial variation in the relative intensity of use by golden eagles during winter in Wyoming, USA, and surrounding ecoregions. Based on a rigorous series of evaluations including cross-validation, withheld and independent data, our winter-season model accurately predicted spatial variation in intensity of use by multiple age- and life-history groups of eagles not associated with nesting territories (i.e., all age classes of long-distance migrants, and resident non-adults and adult “floaters”, and movements of adult territory holders and their offspring outside their breeding territories). Important predictors in the model were wind and uplift (40.2% contribution), vegetation and landcover (27.9%), topography (14%), climate and weather (9.4%), and ecoregion (8.7%). Predicted areas of high-use winter habitat had relatively low spatial overlap with nesting habitat, suggesting a conservation strategy targeting high-use areas for one season would capture as much as half and as little as one quarter of high-use areas for the other season. The majority of predicted high-use habitat (top 10% quantile) occurred on private lands (55%); lands managed by states and the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) had a lower amount (33%), but higher concentration of high-use habitat than expected for their area (1.5–1.6x). These results will enable those involved in conservation and management of golden eagles in our study region to incorporate spatial prioritization of wintering habitat into their existing regulatory processes, land-use planning tasks, and conservation actions.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2024

Disentangling drivers of annual grass invasion: Abiotic susceptibility vs. fire-induced conversion to cheatgrass dominance in the sagebrush biome

Invasive annual grasses are often facilitated by fire, yet they can become ecologically dominant in susceptible locations even in the absence of fire. We used an extensive vegetation plot database to model susceptibility to the invasive annual grass cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum L.) in the sagebrush biome as a function of climate and soil water availability variables. We built random forest models predicting cheatgrass presence or dominance (greater than 15 % relative cover) under unburned (37,219 plots) and burned conditions (6340 plots). We mapped predicted probability of cheatgrass presence and dominance, conditional on burning. We combined predicted susceptibility with burn probability to quantify the 10-year total risk of cheatgrass dominance. Finally, we identified portions of the landscape (1) at risk of fire-induced conversion to cheatgrass dominance, (2) consistently susceptible to cheatgrass dominance, or (3) consistently resistant to cheatgrass dominance. At the scale of the sagebrush biome, we found that abiotic susceptibility to cheatgrass dominance drives total risk, regardless of fire. At local scales (i.e., individual 30 m pixels), burning increased the probability of cheatgrass dominance by a median of 14 %. Threshold-based analyses indicate that 10–31 % of the sagebrush biome was at risk of fire-induced dominance, with 55 % exhibiting abiotic resistance and 5 % exhibiting abiotic susceptibility to dominance regardless of fire. Burn probability was higher in areas predicted to be susceptible to dominance, illustrating how cheatgrass invasion can cause ecosystem conversions that are then sustained by grass-fire cycles. Disentangling the influence of abiotic conditions and fire contributes to our understanding of the mechanisms driving invasion dynamics, and modeling the probability of dominance can help anticipate where ecological transformations are at risk of occurring. Our approach can facilitate the prioritization of management actions in the sagebrush biome and be used as a framework for modeling invasion risk in other disturbance-prone ecosystems.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2023

Combining resilience and resistance with threat-based approaches for prioritizing management actions in sagebrush ecosystems

The sagebrush biome is a dryland region in the western United States experiencing rapid transformations to novel ecological states. Threat-based approaches for managing anthropogenic and ecosystem threats have recently become prominent, but successfully mitigating threats depends on the ecological resilience of ecosystems. We used a spatially explicit approach for prioritizing management actions that combined a threat-based model with models of resilience to disturbance and resistance to annual grass invasion. The threat-based model assessed geographic patterns in sagebrush ecological integrity (SEI) to identify core sagebrush, growth opportunity, and other rangeland areas. The resilience and resistance model identified ecologically relevant climate and soil water availability indicators from process-based ecohydrological models. The SEI areas and resilience and resistance indicators were consistent—the resilience and resistance indicators showed generally positive relationships with the SEI areas. They also were complementary—SEI areas provided information on intact sagebrush areas and threats, while resilience and resistance provided information on responses to disturbances and management actions. The SEI index and resilience and resistance indicators provide the basis for prioritizing conservation and restoration actions and determining appropriate strategies. The difficulty and time required to conserve or restore SEI areas increase as threats increases and resilience and resistance decrease.

Conservation Science and Practice↗

USGS2023

New indicators of ecological resilience and invasion resistance to support prioritization and management in the sagebrush biome, United States

Ecosystem transformations to altered or novel ecological states are accelerating across the globe. Indicators of ecological resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasion can aid in assessing risks and prioritizing areas for conservation and restoration. The sagebrush biome encompasses parts of 11 western states and is experiencing rapid transformations due to human population growth, invasive species, altered disturbance regimes, and climate change. We built on prior use of static soil moisture and temperature regimes to develop new, ecologically relevant and climate responsive indicators of both resilience and resistance. Our new indicators were based on climate and soil water availability variables derived from process-based ecohydrological models that allow predictions of future conditions. We asked: (1) Which variables best indicate resilience and resistance? (2) What are the relationships among the indicator variables and resilience and resistance categories? (3) How do patterns of resilience and resistance vary across the area? We assembled a large database ( n = 24,045) of vegetation sample plots from regional monitoring programs and derived multiple climate and soil water availability variables for each plot from ecohydrological simulations. We used USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service National Soils Survey Information, Ecological Site Descriptions, and expert knowledge to develop and assign ecological types and resilience and resistance categories to each plot. We used random forest models to derive a set of 19 climate and water availability variables that best predicted resilience and resistance categories. Our models had relatively high multiclass accuracy (80% for resilience; 75% for resistance). Top indicator variables for both resilience and resistance included mean temperature, coldest month temperature, climatic water deficit, and summer and driest month precipitation. Variable relationships and patterns differed among ecoregions but reflected environmental gradients; low resilience and resistance were indicated by warm and dry conditions with high climatic water deficits, and moderately high to high resilience and resistance were characterized by cooler and moister conditions with low climatic water deficits. The new, ecologically-relevant indicators provide information on the vulnerability of resources and likely success of management actions, and can be used to develop new approaches and tools for prioritizing areas for conservation and restoration actions.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2019

Effects of nest exposure and spring temperatures on golden eagle brood survival: An opportunity for mitigation

We examined Golden Eagle ( Aquila chrysaetos ) brood survival in relation to spring temperatures and exposure of nests to afternoon sun in southwestern Idaho from 1970 through 2012. Most (77%) nests classified as shaded in a subset of 96 nests had northwest to east aspects, and most (71%) nests classified as exposed had south to west aspects. We analyzed survival of 1154 Golden Eagle broods in 64 territories. Golden Eagle brood survival at shaded and exposed nests did not differ when the daily maximum temperature was <32.2°C. Survival in exposed nests declined as the number of days with maximum temperature ≥32.2°C increased, but survival in shaded nests did not change. All broods survived from hatching to fledging age in eight exposed nests with artificial shade structures installed over a 6-yr period. During the same period, 7 of 42 broods in nests without shade structures failed to reach fledging age, with two failures (29%) attributed to thermal stress. Use of artificial shade structures in exposed nests may reduce or prevent mortality caused by heat stress, and thus might be a potential tool for mitigation of “take” from anthropogenic structures and activities. Additional experimentation under an adaptive management framework could provide more information about the effectiveness of using shade structures to offset nestling mortality associated with increasing temperatures predicted by climate change models.

Idaho↗

USGS2017

Coming to terms about describing Golden Eagle reproduction

Clearly defined terms are essential for reporting and understanding research findings, and inconsistent terminology can complicate efforts to compare findings from different studies. In this article, we reiterate and clarify recommended terms for describing Golden Eagle ( Aquila chrysaetos ) territory occupancy and reproduction. Several authors have provided recommendations for reporting data on raptor reproduction, but our literature review showed that authors continue to use different, often ambiguous and undefined, terms. The inconsistent use of terminology by researchers has been continued and expanded by lawmakers, regulators, and managers, perpetuating confusion. We recommend that authors clearly define and reference all terminology that they use, and we caution against use of the term “active” to describe a nest or nesting territory, because it is tainted with a history of inconsistent use. We provide a glossary of recommended terms for Golden Eagles and other large, long-lived raptors.

Journal of Raptor Research↗

USGS2017

Patterns of spatial distribution of golden eagles across North America: How do they fit into existing landscape-scale mapping systems?

Conserving wide-ranging animals requires knowledge about their year-round movements and resource use. Golden Eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) exhibit a wide range of movement patterns across North America. We combined tracking data from 571 Golden Eagles from multiple independent satellite-telemetry projects from North America to provide a comprehensive look at the magnitude and extent of these movements on a continental scale. We compared patterns of use relative to four alternative administrative and ecological mapping systems, namely Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs), U.S. administrative migratory bird flyways, Migratory Bird Joint Ventures, and Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. Our analyses suggested that eagles initially captured in eastern North America used space differently than those captured in western North America. Other groups of eagles that exhibited distinct patterns in space use included long-distance migrants from northern latitudes, and southwestern and Californian desert residents. There were also several groupings of eagles in the Intermountain West. Using this collaborative approach, we have identified large-scale movement patterns that may not have been possible with individual studies. These results will support landscape-scale conservation measures for Golden Eagles across North America.

Journal of Raptor Research↗

USGS2014

Temporal and spatial changes in golden eagle reproduction in relation to increased off highway vehicle activity

We used >40 years of data on golden eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) nesting in southwestern Idaho, USA, to assess whether the proportion of territories and pairs producing young has changed over time, and whether territories in areas where off highway vehicle (OHV) use has increased significantly were less likely to be productive than those in areas that continued to have little or no motorized recreation. The proportion of territories that produced young was similar across southwestern Idaho from the late 1960s to 1999. After a dramatic increase in OHV use from 1999 to 2009, occupancy and success of territories in close proximity to recreational trails and parking areas declined, and the proportion of these territories producing young differed significantly from territories not impacted by OHVs. We could not pinpoint which types of motorized activity are most disturbing, nor could we identify disturbance thresholds at which eagles abandon their eggs, their young, and finally their territory. Timing, proximity, duration, and frequency of disturbance could all play a role. © 2014 The Wildlife Society.

Idaho↗

USGS2013

Estimating raptor nesting success: old and new approaches

Studies of nesting success can be valuable in assessing the status of raptor populations, but differing monitoring protocols can present unique challenges when comparing populations of different species across time or geographic areas. We used large datasets from long-term studies of 3 raptor species to compare estimates of apparent nest success (ANS, the ratio of successful to total number of nesting attempts), Mayfield nesting success, and the logistic-exposure model of nest survival. Golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos), prairie falcons (Falco mexicanus), and American kestrels (F. sparverius) differ in their breeding biology and the methods often used to monitor their reproduction. Mayfield and logistic-exposure models generated similar estimates of nesting success with similar levels of precision. Apparent nest success overestimated nesting success and was particularly sensitive to inclusion of nesting attempts discovered late in the nesting season. Thus, the ANS estimator is inappropriate when exact point estimates are required, especially when most raptor pairs cannot be located before or soon after laying eggs. However, ANS may be sufficient to assess long-term trends of species in which nesting attempts are highly detectable.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗