Geology topics

Jeremy D. Pesicek

Publications and source records attributed to Jeremy D. Pesicek.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Surface-wave relocation and characterization of the 2024–2025 dyking episode along the Fentale–Dofen segment of the Ethiopian rift

From late-December 2024 to mid-March 2025, a 50-km-long dyke intrusion triggered over 300 earthquakes (magnitude 4 to 5.9) between Fentale and Dofen volcanoes along the Northern Main Ethiopian Rift. Dyke intrusions periodically occur along the Fentale–Dofen magmatic segment and are an expression of ongoing rift extension. Preliminary analyses using interferometric synthetic aperture radar revealed extensive ground deformation (up to 60 cm), which closely matched the temporal and spatial evolution of surface manifestations and earthquake locations from global catalogues. While global catalogues are critical for real-time monitoring, the precision of locations in remote and or sparsely instrumented regions can be low. In this investigation, we present surface-wave relocation results of the dyking episode that began near Fentale volcano in December 2024. We estimate relative locations using differential traveltimes measured from regional-to-teleseismic distance surface-wave observations of earthquakes reported by the U.S. Geological Survey. Relative relocations reduce the initial region of diffuse seismicity to a 50-km-long narrow band bounding the strike of surface manifestations and the zone of maximum surface deformation. We demonstrate the precision of surface-wave relocations over incremental time periods, capturing the progression of dyking from seismic onset through seismic migration and caldera subsidence. Results showcase the utility of surface-wave relocations in the characterization of dyking episodes and provide complementary insights into the current understanding of the Fentale–Dofen volcanic plumbing system.

Geophysical Journal International↗

USGS2024

Reference 1D seismic velocity models for volcano monitoring and imaging: Methods, models, and applications

Seismic velocity models of the crust are an integral part of earthquake monitoring systems at volcanoes. 1D models that vary only in depth are typically used for real‐time hypocenter determination and serve as critical reference models for detailed 3D imaging studies and geomechanical modeling. Such models are usually computed using seismic tomographic methods that rely on P ‐ and S ‐wave arrival‐time picks from numerous earthquakes recorded at receivers around the volcano. Traditional linearized tomographic methods that jointly invert for source locations, velocity structure, and station corrections depend critically on having reasonable starting values for the unknown parameters, are susceptible to local misfit minima and divergence, and often do not provide adequate uncertainty information. These issues are often exacerbated by sparse seismic networks, inadequate distributions of seismicity, and/or poor data quality common at volcanoes. In contrast, modern probabilistic global search methods avoid these issues only at the cost of increased computation time. In this article, we review both approaches and present example applications and comparisons at several volcanoes in the United States, including Mount Hood (Oregon), Mount St. Helens (Washington), the Island of Hawai’i, and Mount Cleveland (Alaska). We provide guidance on the proper usage of these methods as relevant to challenges specific to volcano monitoring and imaging. Finally, we survey‐published 1D P ‐wave velocity models from around the world and use them to derive a generic stratovolcano velocity model, which serves as a useful reference model for comparison and when local velocity information is sparse.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2021

Indicators of volcanic eruptions revealed by global M4+ earthquakes

Determining whether seismicity near volcanoes is due primarily to tectonic or magmatic processes is a challenging but critical endeavor for volcanic eruption forecasting and detection, especially at poorly monitored volcanoes. Global statistics on the occurrence and timing of earthquakes near volcanoes both within and outside of eruptive periods reveal patterns in eruptive seismicity that may improve our ability to discern magmatically driven seismicity from purely tectonic seismicity. In this paper, we catalog magnitude four and greater (M4+) earthquakes near volcanoes globally and compute statistics on their occurrence with respect to various eruptive and volcanic attributes, evaluating their utility as diagnostic indicators of eruptions. Using a 2‐week time window and a 30 km radius around the volcanoes, we find that 11% of eruptions are preceded by at least one M4+ earthquake, but only 1% of such earthquakes is followed by eruption. However, earthquakes located 5–15 km from the volcano, those with normal faulting mechanisms and/or large nondouble‐couple components, and those occurring as groups are more commonly associated with eruptions, providing significant forecasting utility in some cases. Similarly, certain volcanoes are more likely to exhibit such precursors, such as those with long repose periods. We illustrate the use of these data in eruption forecasting scenarios, including rapid identification of analogous earthquake sequences at other volcanoes. When integrated within the context of multiparametric, multidisciplinary probabilistic assessments of volcanic activity, global earthquake statistics can improve eruption forecasts, and our work provides a model for use on other rapidly expanding global volcanological databases.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

USGS2020

Relocated aftershocks and background seismicity in eastern Indonesia shed light on the 2018 Lombok and Palu earthquake sequences

High seismicity rates in eastern Indonesia occur due to the complex interaction of several tectonic plates which resulted in two deadly, destructive earthquake sequences that occurred in Lombok Island and the city of Palu, Sulawesi in 2018. The first sequence began in July with an M w 6.4 event near Lombok, culminating in an M w 7.0 event 8 d later. This was then followed by a nearby M w 6.9 event 12 d later. Approximately 1000 km to the northeast, a separate sequence began several weeks later near Palu where an M w 7.5 event occurred that triggered a tsunami. In this study, we present hypocentre relocations for both earthquake sequences as well as all other regional earthquakes in eastern Indonesia. The relocations were performed using a teleseismic double-difference relocation method and arrival times for P and S waves from stations at local, regional, and teleseismic distances. The catalogue and phase data were taken from the Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) of Indonesia and the International Seismological Centre (ISC) for the period of April 2009 through November 2018. The relocated catalogue provides an improved view of seismicity in eastern Indonesia over the study period, sharpening locations and interpretations of seismogenic features throughout the region. In the Lombok area, the relocated earthquakes clearly show a backarc thrust to the north of the Sunda-Banda Arc transition zone. The relocated aftershocks show that the destructive M w 7.0 and M w 6.9 earthquakes of the Lombok sequence ruptured two different regions: The M w 7.0 earthquake propagated westward, whereas the M w 6.9 earthquake propagated eastward. The entire sequence of Lombok earthquakes was most likely started by the M w 6.4 event as the initial event or foreshock, which then triggered backarc thrusts on both sides. Several weeks later and far to the northeast, the M w 7.5 Palu earthquake occurred along the Palu-Koro Fault, filling a seismic gap that had not ruptured in an M w 6.0 event or larger since at least 1900. The distribution of aftershocks indicates that the northern part of the Palu-Koro Fault has lower relative seismicity rates than the southern part at shallow depths, and that off fault aftershocks are mostly located to the east of the Palu-Koro Fault.

Lombok, Palu↗

USGS2019

High rates of inflation during a noneruptive episode of seismic unrest at Semisopochnoi Volcano, Alaska in 2014–2015

Magma intrusion rate is a key parameter in eruption triggering but is poorly quantified in existing geodetic studies. Here we examine two episodes of rapid inflation in this context. Two noneruptive microseismic swarms were recorded at Semisopochnoi Volcano, Alaska in 2014–2015. We use differential SAR techniques and TerraSAR‐X images to document surface deformation from 2011 to 2015, which comprises island‐wide radial inflation totaling ~25 cm (+/−1 cm) line of sight displacement in 2014–2015. Multiple source geometries are tested in an inversion of the deformation data, and InSAR data are best fit by a spheroid trending to the northeast and plunging to the southeast, with a major axis of ~4 km and minor axes of ~1 km, directly under the central caldera of Semisopochnoi. In 2014, a modeled influx of 0.043 km 3 of magma caused line of sight displacement of ~17 cm. This magma was stored at a depth of ~8 km, until 2015 when 0.029 km 3 was added. Along with the definition of inflation source parameters, the recorded seismic events are relocated using differential travel times. These relocated events outline a linear aseismic area within a larger zone of shallow (<10 km) seismicity. This aseismic region aligns with the centroid of the deformation model. Based on these geodetic and seismic models, the plumbing system at Semisopochnoi is interpreted as a spheroidal magma storage zone at a depth of ˜8 km below a linear feature of partial melt. The observed deformation and seismicity appear to result from rapid injection into this main storage region.

Alaska↗

USGS2019

The 2017-19 activity at Mount Agung in Bali (Indonesia): Intense unrest, monitoring, crisis response, evacuation, and eruption

After 53 years of quiescence, Mount Agung awoke in August 2017, with intense seismicity, measurable ground deformation, and thermal anomalies in the summit crater. Although the seismic unrest peaked in late September and early October, the volcano did not start erupting until 21 November. The most intense explosive eruptions with accompanying rapid lava effusion occurred between 25 and 29 November. Smaller infrequent explosions and extrusions continue through the present (June 2019). The delay between intense unrest and eruption caused considerable challenges to emergency responders, local and national governmental agencies, and the population of Bali near the volcano, including over 140,000 evacuees. This paper provides an overview of the volcanic activity at Mount Agung from the viewpoint of the volcano observatory and other scientists responding to the volcanic crisis. We discuss the volcanic activity as well as key data streams used to track it. We provide evidence that magma intruded into the mid-crust in early 2017, and again in August of that year, prior to intrusion of an inferred dike between Mount Agung and Batur Caldera that initiated an earthquake swarm in late September. We summarize efforts to forecast the behavior of the volcano, to quantify exclusion zones for evacuations, and to work with emergency responders and other government agencies to make decisions during a complex and tense volcanic crisis.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2018

Prevalence of seismic rate anomalies preceding volcanic eruptions in Alaska

Seismic rate increases often precede eruptions at volcanoes worldwide. However, many eruptions occur without such precursors. Additionally, identifying seismic rate increases near volcanoes with high levels of background seismicity is non-trivial and many periods of elevated seismicity occur without ensuing eruptions, limiting their usefulness for forecasting in some cases. Although these issues are commonly known, efforts to quantify them are limited. In this study, we consistently apply a common statistical tool, the β-statistic, to seismically monitored eruptions in Alaska of various styles to determine the overall prevalence of seismic rate anomalies immediately preceding eruptions. We find that 6 out of 20 (30%) eruptions have statistically significant precursory seismic rate increases. Of these 6 eruptions, 3 of them occur at volcanoes with relatively felsic compositions, repose periods >15 years, and VEI ≥ 3. Overall, our results confirm that seismic rate increases are common prior to larger eruptions at long dormant, “closed-system” volcanoes, but uncommon preceding smaller eruptions at more frequently active, “open-system” volcanoes with more mafic magmas. We also explore the rate of other anomalies not precursory to eruptions and investigate their origins. Some of these non-eruptive anomalies can be explained by aftershocks of regional seismic events, magmatic activity that did not lead to eruption, or unrest at other nearby volcanoes. Some open-system volcanoes have high non-eruptive anomaly rates and low pre-eruptive anomaly rates and are thus not amenable to forecasting based on earthquake catalogs. In this study, we find that 31% of anomalies lead to eruption. With continued calibration at more volcanoes, the β-statistic that we apply may be used more broadly to analyze future periods of seismic unrest at other volcanoes, properly placing such episodes into the context of the long-term background rate. These results may be useful for informing future eruption forecasts around the world, and the statistical tool may aid volcano observatories in identifying future seismic rate anomalies under changing network conditions.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Hypocenter relocation along the Sunda arc in Indonesia, using a 3D seismic velocity model

The tectonics of the Sunda arc region is characterized by the junction of the Eurasian and Indo‐Australian tectonic plates, causing complex dynamics to take place. High‐seismicity rates in the Indonesian region occur due to the interaction between these tectonic plates. The availability of a denser network of seismometers after the earthquakes of M w "> M w 9.1 in 2004 and M w "> M w 8.6 in 2005 supports various seismic studies, one of which regards the precise relocation of the hypocenters. In this study, hypocenter relocation was performed using a teleseismic double‐difference (DD) relocation method (teletomoDD) combining arrival times of P and S waves from stations at local, regional, and teleseismic distances. The catalog data were taken from the Agency of Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics (BMKG) of Indonesia, and the International Seismological Centre (ISC) for the time period of April 2009 to May 2015. The 3D seismic‐wave velocity model with a grid size 1 ° × 1 ° "> 1°×1° was used in the travel‐time calculations. Relocation results show a reduction in travel‐time residuals compared with the initial locations. The relocation results better illuminate subducted slabs and active faults in the region such as the Mentawai back thrust and the outer rise in the subduction zone south of Java. Focal mechanisms from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog are analyzed in conjunction with the relocation results, and our synthesis of the results provides further insight into seismogenesis in the region.

Sunda arc↗

USGS2014

Seismicity and seismic structure at Okmok Volcano, Alaska

Okmok volcano is an active volcanic caldera located on the northeastern portion of Umnak Island in the Aleutian arc, with recent eruptions in 1997 and 2008. The Okmok area had ~900 locatable earthquakes between 2003 and June 2008, and an additional ~600 earthquakes from the beginning of the 2008 eruption to mid 2009, providing an adequate dataset for seismic tomography. To image the seismic velocity structure of Okmok, we apply waveform cross-correlation using bispectrum verification and double-difference tomography to a subset of these earthquakes. We also perform P-wave attenuation tomography using a spectral decay technique. We examine the spatio-temporal characteristics of seismicity in the opening sequence of the 2008 eruption to investigate the path of magma migration during the establishment of a new eruptive vent. We also incorporate the new earthquake relocations and three-dimensional (3D) velocity model with first-motion polarities to compute focal mechanisms for selected events in the 2008 pre-eruptive and eruptive periods. Through these techniques we obtain precise relocations, a well-constrained 3D P-wave velocity model, and a marginally resolved S-wave velocity model. We image a main low Vp and Vs anomaly directly under the caldera consisting of a shallow zone at 0–2 km depth connected to a larger deeper zone that extends to about 6 km depth. We find that areas of low Qp are concentrated in the central to southwestern portion of the caldera and correspond fairly well with areas of low Vp. We interpret the deeper part of the low velocity anomaly (4–6 km depth) beneath the caldera as a magma body. This is consistent with results from ambient noise tomography and suggests that previous estimates of depth to Okmok's magma chamber based only on geodetic data may be too shallow. The distribution of events preceding the 2008 eruption suggest that a combination of overpressure in the zone surrounding the magma chamber and the introduction of new material from below were jointly responsible for the explosive eruption. Magma escaping from the top of the main magma chamber likely reacted with both a smaller shallow pod of magma and groundwater on its way up below the Cone D area. The earthquakes in the 2008 pre-eruptive and eruptive periods are found to have a mixture of strike-slip, oblique normal, and oblique thrust mechanisms, with a dominant P-axis orientation that is nearly perpendicular to the regional tectonic stress. This may indicate that the stresses related to magmatic activity locally dominated regional tectonic forces during this time period.

Alaska↗