Jeffrey W. Doser | Geology Reports

USGS2025

Three decades of declines restructure butterfly communities in the Midwestern United States

Insects are declining worldwide, yet gaps remain in our understanding of how declines are distributed across species within communities. Using three decades of butterfly monitoring data aggregated from the Midwestern United States, we found that no butterfly species increased in abundance from 1992 to 2023. 59 out of 136 species declined (annual mean trend: −1.2 to −6.9% per year) with losses distributed across all functional groups including residents, migrants, rare, and common species. Community composition changed such that abundance is now more even across species, driven by more severe losses in abundance—but not richness—of common species compared to rare species. These widespread declines are likely cascading across ecosystems. Conservation efforts that focus on entire communities could mitigate butterfly biodiversity loss.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss↗

USGS2023

Scenario planning and multispecies occupancy models reveal positive avian responses to restoration of afforested woodlands

Scenario planning is a powerful approach for assessing restoration outcomes under alternative futures. However, developing plausible scenarios remains daunting in complex systems like ecological communities. Here, we used Bayesian multispecies occupancy modeling to develop scenarios to assess woodland restoration outcomes in afforested communities in seven wildlife management areas in Arkansas, U.S.A. Our objectives were (1) to define plausible woodland restoration and afforestation scenarios by quantifying historic ranges of variation in mean tree cover and tree cover heterogeneity from 1986 to 2021 and (2) to predict changes in bird species richness and occupancy patterns for six species of greatest conservation need under two future scenarios: complete afforestation (100% tree cover) and woodland restoration (based on remotely sensed historic tree cover). Using 35 years of remotely sensed tree cover data and 6 years of bird monitoring data, we developed multispecies occupancy models to predict future bird species richness and occupancy under the complete afforestation and woodland restoration scenarios. Between 1986 and 2021, tree cover increased in all study areas—with one increasing 70%. Under the woodland restoration scenario, avian species richness increased up to 20%, and four of six species of greatest conservation need exhibited gains in occupancy probability. The complete afforestation scenario had negligible effects on richness and occupancy. Overall, we found decreasing tree cover to historic levels prior to widespread afforestation would provide community-level benefits and would do little harm even to forest-dependent species of conservation concern. Applying multispecies occupancy modeling within a scenario planning framework allows for comparing multiscale trade-offs between plausible futures.

Restoration Ecology↗