Jeff Laake | Geology Reports

USGS2012

The utility of harvest recoveries of marked individuals to assess polar bear (Ursus maritimus) survival

Management of polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) populations requires the periodic assessment of life history metrics such as survival rate. This information is frequently obtained during short-term capture and marking efforts (e.g., over the course of three years) that result in hundreds of marked bears remaining in the population after active marking is finished. Using 10 additional years of harvest recovery subsequent to a period of active marking, we provide updated estimates of annual survival for polar bears in the Baffin Bay population of Greenland and Canada. Our analysis suggests a decline in survival of polar bears since the period of active marking that ended in 1997; some of the decline in survival can likely be attributed to a decline in springtime ice concentration over the continental shelf of Baffin Island. The variance around the survival estimates is comparatively high because of the declining number of marks available; therefore, results must be interpreted with caution. The variance of the estimates of survival increased most substantially in the sixth year post-marking. When survival estimates calculated with recovery-only and recapture-recovery data sets from the period of active marking were compared, survival rates were indistinguishable. However, for the period when fewer marks were available, survival estimates were lower using the recovery-only data set, which indicates that part of the decline we detected for 2003 – 09 may be due to using only harvest recovery data. Nevertheless, the decline in the estimates of survival is consistent with population projections derived from harvest numbers and earlier vital rates, as well as with an observed decline in the extent of sea ice habitat.

Baffin Bay↗

USGS2002

SALMOD: A population model for salmonids: user's manual. Version W3

SALMOD is a computer model that simulates the dynamics of freshwater salmonid populations, both anadromous and resident. The conceptual model was developed in a workshop setting (Williamson et al. 1993) using fish experts concerned with Trinity River chinook restoration. The model builds on the foundation laid by similar models (see Cheslak and Jacobson 1990). The model’s premise that that egg and fish mortality are directly related to spatially and temporally variable micro- and macrohabitat limitations, which themselves are related to the timing and amount of streamflow and other meteorological variables. Habitat quality and capacity are characterized by the hydraulic and thermal properties of individual mesohabitats, which we use as spatial “computation units” in the model. The model tracks a population of spatially distinct cohorts that originate as gees and grow from one life stage to another as a function of local water temperature. Individual cohorts either remain in the computational unit in which they emerged or move, in whole or in part, to nearby units (see McCormick et al. 1998). Model processes include spawning (with red superimposition and incubation losses), growth (including egg maturation), mortality, and movement (freshet-induced, habitat-induced, and seasonal). Model processes are implemented such that the user (modeler) has the ability to more-or-less program the model on the fly to create the dynamics thought to animate the population. SALMOD then tabulates the various causes of mortality and the whereabouts of fish.

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