Geology topics

Jayantha Obeysekera

Publications and source records attributed to Jayantha Obeysekera.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2023

Advancing best practices for the analysis of the vulnerability of military installations in the Pacific Basin to coastal flooding under a changing climate – RC-2644

Coastal flooding takes many forms, ranging from major flooding associated with storms to minor flooding associated with exceptionally high tides and other oceanic and atmospheric phenomena on storm-free days. A major societal challenge is to understand and predict how flood magnitude and frequency will manifest at particular places and times, now and in the future. Of particular interest here is how coastal flooding will impact Department of Defense (DoD) installations. In response to this need, this work aims to advance the practical application of statistical and other analytical techniques that can be used to assess the exposure, and ultimately the vulnerability, of built and natural environments to the impacts of coastal flooding. A variety of methods are described and applied to assess exposure. This includes tide gauge station-based diagnosis and prognosis of patterns and trends of Still Water Level, techniques to characterize the expression of ‘lesser extremes’ (e.g., sub-annual to subdecadal event probabilities), and region-wide analysis that improves upon results obtained from conventional single-tide gauge analyses. A novel hybrid statistical and dynamical modeling approach is applied to the analysis of Total Water Levels, necessary for exposure assessment along shorelines exposed to wave action. The hybrid exposure assessment modeling approach is incorporated into a broader mission-based protocol for the assessment of resilience to coastal flooding at the installation level. Demonstrated via an exemplar assessment, which takes into account functional (lost day) as well as financial impacts (lost dollars), the protocol meets the demand for an actionable characterization of how DoD installations will be affected by coastal flooding and improves DoD’s ability to make informed decisions about how to adapt to its effects. The methods described, evaluated, and applied here, including innovative approaches and proof-of-concept products developed through this work, are incorporated into and considered within an analytical framework that serves as guidance as to their relative merits with respect to coastal flood exposure assessment in various circumstances and settings, and illustrates best practices. This will provide engineers, scientists and other practitioners with an enhanced capability to generate information that can be used to support area-wide assessment related to climate adaptation planning and disaster risk reduction as well as site-specific analysis related to design and maintenance of facilities and infrastructure. While the focus is on a select set of DoD sites in the Pacific Basin, the results have broad applicability nationally as well as globally.

Final Report↗

USGS2022

Development of projected depth-duration frequency curves (2050–89) for south Florida

Planning stormwater projects requires estimates of current and future extreme precipitation depths for events with specified return periods and durations. In this study, precipitation data from four downscaled climate datasets are used to determine changes in precipitation depth-duration-frequency curves from the period 1966–2005 to the period 2050–89 primarily on the basis of Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The four downscaled climate datasets are (1) the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) dataset, (2) the Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) dataset, (3) the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) dataset, and (4) the Jupiter Intelligence Weather Research and Forecasting Model (JupiterWRF) dataset. Change factors—multiplicative changes in expected extreme precipitation magnitude from current to future period—were computed for grid cells from the downscaled climate datasets containing National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlas 14 stations in central and south Florida. Change factors for specific durations and return periods may be used to scale the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlas 14 historical depth-duration-frequency values to the period 2050–89 on the basis of changes in extreme precipitation derived from downscaled climate datasets. Model culling was implemented to select downscaled climate models that best captured observed historical patterns of precipitation extremes in central and south Florida. Overall, a large variation in change factors across downscaled climate datasets was found, with change factors generally greater than one and increasing with return period. In general, median change factors were higher for the south-central Florida climate region (1.05–1.55 depending on downscaled climate dataset, duration, and return period) than for the south Florida climate region (1–1.4 depending on downscaled climate dataset, duration, and return period) when considering best performing models for both areas, indicating a projected overall increase in future extreme precipitation events.

Florida↗

USGS2022

Global and regional sea level rise scenarios for the United States

This report and accompanying datasets from the U.S. Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Hazard Scenarios and Tools Interagency Task Force provide 1) sea level rise scenarios to 2150 by decade that include estimates of vertical land motion and 2) a set of extreme water level probabilities for various heights along the U.S. coastline. These data are available at 1-degree grids along the U.S. coastline and downscaled specifically at NOAA tide-gauge locations. Estimates of flood exposure are assessed using contemporary U.S. coastal flood-severity thresholds for current conditions (e.g., sea levels and infrastructure footprint) and for the next 30 years (out to year 2050), assuming no additional risk reduction measures are enacted. This effort builds upon the 2017 Task Force report (Sweet et al., 2017). In particular, the set of global mean sea level rise scenarios from that report are updated and downscaled with output directly from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6; IPCC, 2021a), through the efforts of the NASA Sea Level Change Team; updates include adjustments to the temporal trajectories and exceedance probabilities of these scenarios based upon end-of-century global temperatures. As with the 2017 report, these global mean sea level rise scenarios are regionalized for the U.S. coastline. In addition, methodology supporting the U.S. Department of Defense Regional Sea Level (DRSL) database (Hall et al., 2016) is adapted for the extreme water level dataset newly developed for this report. This report will be a key technical input for the Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5). These data and information are being incorporated into current and planned agency tools and services, such as NOAA’s Sea Level Rise Viewer and Inundation Dashboard, NASA’s Sea Level Change Portal, and others. Although the intent of this report is not to provide authoritative guidance or design specifications for a specific project, it is intended to help inform Federal agencies, state and local governments, and stakeholders in coastal communities about current and future sea level rise to help contextualize its effects for decision-making purposes.

Technical Report↗

USGS2020

Repurposing a hindcast simulation of the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane, south Florida

Hydrodynamic model hindcasts of the surface water and groundwater of the Everglades and the greater Miami, Florida, area were used to simulate hydrology using estimated storm surge height, wind field, and rainfall for the Great Miami Hurricane (GMH), which struck on September 18, 1926. Ranked estimates of losses from hurricanes in inflation-adjusted dollars indicate that the GMH was one of the most damaging tropical cyclones to make landfall in the United States, but little hydrologic data were collected because many types of field stations did not exist at the time. Several techniques were used to estimate previously unknown critical storm variables for model input, demonstrating the value of reanalyzing historical storm events using modern hydrodynamic modeling. This representation of the 1926 GMH was then used to develop a hypothetical simulation of the hydrologic effects of a similar hurricane occurring in contemporary (1996) times. Results indicate that the 18-centimeter sea-level rise between 1926 and 1996 had a greater effect on salinity intrusion than climatic differences or the development of modern canal-based infrastructure. Moreover, the post-1926 canal infrastructure does not seem to substantially mitigate the deleterious effects of sea-level rise.

Florida↗

USGS2006

Impacts of the 2004 tsunami on groundwater resources in Sri Lanka

The 26 December 2004 tsunami caused widespread destruction and contamination of coastal aquifers across southern Asia. Seawater filled domestic open dug wells and also entered the aquifers via direct infiltration during the first flooding waves and later as ponded seawater infiltrated through the permeable sands that are typical of coastal aquifers. In Sri Lanka alone, it is estimated that over 40,000 drinking water wells were either destroyed or contaminated. From February through September 2005, a team of United States, Sri Lankan, and Danish water resource scientists and engineers surveyed the coastal groundwater resources of Sri Lanka to develop an understanding of the impacts of the tsunami and to provide recommendations for the future of coastal water resources in south Asia. In the tsunami‐affected areas, seawater was found to have infiltrated and mixed with fresh groundwater lenses as indicated by the elevated groundwater salinity levels. Seawater infiltrated through the shallow vadose zone as well as entered aquifers directly through flooded open wells. Our preliminary transport analysis demonstrates that the intruded seawater has vertically mixed in the aquifers because of both forced and free convection. Widespread pumping of wells to remove seawater was effective in some areas, but overpumping has led to upconing of the saltwater interface and rising salinity. We estimate that groundwater recharge from several monsoon seasons will reduce salinity of many sandy Sri Lankan coastal aquifers. However, the continued sustainability of these small and fragile aquifers for potable water will be difficult because of the rapid growth of human activities that results in more intensive groundwater pumping and increased pollution. Long‐term sustainability of coastal aquifers is also impacted by the decrease in sand replenishment of the beaches due to sand mining and erosion.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS1996

Comparison of the South Florida natural system model with pre-canal Everglades hydrology estimated from historical sources

Preservation and restoration of the remaining Everglades ecosystem is focussed on two aspects: improving upstream water quality and improving 'hydropatterns' - the timing, depth and flow of surface water. Restoration of hydropatterns requires knowledge of the original pre-canal drainage conditions as well as an understanding of the soil, topo-graphic, and vegetation changes that have taken place since canal drainage began in the 1880's. The Natural System Model (NSM), developed by the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) and Everglades National Park, uses estimates of pre-drainage vegetation and topography to estimate the pre-drainage hydrologic response of the Everglades. Sources of model uncertainty include: (1) the algorithms, (2) the parameters (particularly those relating to vegetation roughness and evapotranspiration), and (3) errors in the assumed pre-drainage vegetation distribution and pre-drainage topography. Other studies are concentrating on algorithmic and parameter sources of uncertainty. In this study we focus on the NSM output -- predicted hydropattern -- and evaluate this by comparison with all available direct and indirect information on pre-drainage hydropatterns. The unpublished and published literature is being searched exhaustively for observations of water depth, flow direction, flow velocity and hydroperiod, during the period prior and just after drainage (1840-1920). Additionally, a comprehensive map of soils in the Everglades region, prepared in the 1940's by personnel from the University of Florida Agricultural Experiment Station, the U.S. Soil Conservation Service, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the Everglades Drainage District, is being used to identify wetland soils and to infer the spatial distribution of pre-drainage hydrologic conditions. Detailed study of this map and other early soil and vegetation maps in light of the history of drainage activities will reveal patterns of change and possible errors in the input to the NSM. Changes in the wetland soils are important because of their effects on topography (soil subsidence) and in their role as indicators of hydropattern.

Florida↗