Geology topics

James R. Miller

Publications and source records attributed to James R. Miller.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Phenological flexibility in nesting grassland birds over a half century informs timing of management

The timing of biological events for wildlife species reflects and influences ecological and evolutionary processes and helps guide management actions to meet conservation objectives. Climate change may cause phenological shifts across trophic levels and ecosystems, which can have broad ecological impacts. Shifts may also result in mistiming between management practices based on historical conditions and current biological events, reducing the effectiveness of natural resource management and conservation efforts. We analyzed nesting phenology patterns over recent decades across North America for 44 species of grassland-nesting birds, including waterfowl, upland gamebirds, shorebirds, and passerines, many of which have experienced precipitous population declines. Understanding nesting phenologies of these species is important to their conservation, as grassland management activities often conflict with reproductive periods leading to high nest and young mortality. We compiled a dataset of over 172,000 nest records spanning five decades and evaluated environmental factors influencing long-term shifts and short-term flexibility in nesting phenology. We found considerable variation in responses among species, with differences in both direction and magnitude of spatiotemporal effects on nest initiation dates. Notably, the community-level nesting season lengthened over time, but shifts exhibited spatial heterogeneity within this community of grassland birds. Nesting dates shifted asymmetrically across the breeding season with differential changes in early, peak, and late nesting dates whereas long-term changes were mediated by weather and geographic gradients. For example, nest initiation was earlier in warmer and wetter years. By applying a quantile-based analysis, we provide estimates of the full nesting period that could serve as a flexible tool for scheduling monitoring efforts and balancing management and human activities with periods of reduced nesting activity. Our collaborative effort illustrates the challenges and opportunities of collecting long-term data on avian communities necessary for answering questions across large regions but highlights the value of research coordination for bird conservation.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2024

Best practices for incorporating climate change science into Department of the Interior analyses, consultations, and decision making

The purpose of this document is to provide technical guidance, practical application examples, and resource lists for those who conduct, manage, and/or interpret technical workflows within the Department of the Interior. This document is intended to support implementation of Department of the Interior policy 526 DM 1 and establish best practices for using climate change science to inform analysis, consultation, and decision making. The Earth’s climate is an interconnected system that distributes energy, heat, and water around the planet. Due to human-driven increases in long-lived greenhouse gases, the Earth’s climate is now changing. For Departmental decision-making purposes, assuming a static, unchanging baseline climate is no longer consistent with current knowledge about the climate system. There are uncertainties about future climate and how resources or assets (RoAs) will respond to new conditions. To depict the possibilities, the global climate science community develops scenarios and models to explore how future climate may respond to socioeconomic and technological development in the world. Principles for informing policy development, planning and decisions, and regulatory processes using climate change science must: 1) consider the effects of future climate change, 2) characterize the risks, and 3) characterize the uncertainties. Best practices include: Use multiple scenarios to assess risks from a range of plausible societal pathways. When constraints prevent the use of multiple scenarios or if decision makers are risk averse, ensure that the chosen scenario considers higher risk outcomes. This is particularly important for large investments or irreversible decisions and reduces the chances of overconfident decision making. Use multiple climate models within each scenario to account for the range of outcomes due to model uncertainty. Do not rely solely on a single model or an ensemble average. Use relevant climate data . Use a time-period for model projections of the future climate change consistent with the relevant timeframe of the policy, action, or decision being considered. Historical observations are useful for understanding past conditions and climate trends for the next several years, but not beyond the next decade. Consult with climate data and modeling experts to assess which data and model resources are most appropriate for any given application. Clearly describe key analysis uncertainties (including with any climate observations, models, and scenarios used), and how they were addressed in the analysis and/or decision process. This ensures transparency and learning among analysts and decision makers.

Report↗

USGS2019

A brief introduction to integrated pest management for aquatic systems

Aquatic invasive plants and animals are increasingly becoming a problem, causing severe economic and ecological damage to critical freshwater systems. The best strategy for controlling an invasive pest employs an integrated pest management (IPM) approach using a combination of biological, physical, chemical, and social/cultural control methods. Here, we examine the history and development of IPM and provide a discussion of the components of an IPM program involving development, evaluation, and management. Control approaches will be reviewed and the application of this technique to aquatic systems will be discussed. A discussion of the Great Lakes Fishery Commission's (GLFC) Integrated Management of Sea Lamprey Petromyzon marinus Control Program will be provided to illustrate the application of IPM to an aquatic system.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2018

Rapid evolution meets invasive species control: The potential for pesticide resistance in sea lamprey

Rapid evolution of pest, pathogen and wildlife populations can have undesirable effects; for example, when insects evolve resistance to pesticides or fishes evolve smaller body size in response to harvest. A destructive invasive species in the Laurentian Great Lakes, the sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) has been controlled with the pesticide 3-trifluoromethyl-4-nitrophenol (TFM) since the 1950s. We evaluated the likelihood of sea lamprey evolving resistance to TFM by (1) reviewing sea lamprey life history and control; (2) identifying physiological and behavioural resistance strategies; (3) estimating the strength of selection from TFM; (4) assessing the timeline for evolution; and (5) analyzing historical toxicity data for evidence of resistance. The number of sea lamprey generations exposed to TFM was within the range observed for fish populations where rapid evolution has occurred. Mortality from TFM was estimated as 82-90%, suggesting significant selective pressure. However, 57 years of toxicity data revealed no increase in lethal concentrations of TFM. Vigilance and the development of alternative controls are required to prevent this aquatic invasive species from evolving strategies to evade control.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2012

Evaluating the ability of regional models to predict local avian abundance

Spatial modeling over broad scales can potentially direct conservation efforts to areas with high species-specific abundances. We examined the performance of regional models for predicting bird abundance at spatial scales typically addressed in conservation planning. Specifically, we used point count data on wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) and blue-winged warbler (Vermivora cyanoptera) from 2 time periods (1995-1998 and 2006-2007) to evaluate the ability of regional models derived via Bayesian hierarchical techniques to predict bird abundance. We developed models for each species within Bird Conservation Region (BCR) 23 in the upper midwestern United States at 800-ha, 8,000-ha, and approximately 80,000-ha scales. We obtained count data from the Breeding Bird Survey and land cover data from the National Land Cover Dataset (1992). We evaluated predictions from the best models, as defined by an information-theoretic criterion, using point count data collected within an ecological subregion of BCR 23 at 131 count stations in the 1990s and again in 2006-2007. Competing (Deviance Information Criteria <5) blue-winged warbler models accounted for 67% of the variability and suggested positive associations with forest edge and proportion of forest at the 8,000-ha scale, and negative associations with forest patch area (800 ha) and wetness (800 ha and 80,000 ha). The regional model performed best for blue-winged warbler predicted abundances from point counts conducted in Iowa during 1995-1996 ( r s = 0.57; P = 0.14), the survey period that most closely aligned with the time period of data used for regional model construction. Wood thrush models exhibited positive correlations with point count data for all survey areas and years combined ( r s = 0.58, P ≤ 0.001). In comparison, blue-winged warbler models performed worse as time increased between the point count surveys and vintage of the model building data ( r s = 0.03, P = 0.92 for Iowa and r s = 0.13, P = 0.51 for all areas, 2006-2007), likely related to the ephemeral nature of their preferred early successional habitat. Species abundance and sensitivity to changing habitat conditions seems to be an important factor in determining the predictive ability of regional models. Hierarchical models can be a useful tool for concentrating efforts at the scale of management units and should be one of many tools used by land managers, but we caution that the utility of such models may decrease over time for species preferring relatively ephemeral habitats if model inputs are not updated accordingly.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2011

Postfledging survival of Grasshopper Sparrows in grasslands managed with fire and grazing

More accurate estimates of survival after nestlings fledge are needed for population models to be parameterized and population dynamics to be understood during this vulnerable life stage. The period after fledging is the time when chicks learn to fly, forage, and hide from predators. We monitored postfledging survival, causespecific mortality, and movements of Grasshopper Sparrows ( Ammodramus savannarum ) in grassland managed with fire and grazing. In 2009, we attached radio transmitters to 50 nestlings from 50 different broods and modeled their survival in response to climatic, biological, and ecological variables. There was no effect of treatment on survival. The factor most influencing postfledging survival was age; no other variable was significant. The majority of chicks (74%) died within 3 days of radio-transmitter attachment. We attributed most mortality to mesopredators (48%) and exposure (28%). Fledglings' movements increased rapidly for the first 4 days after they left the nest and were relatively stable for the remaining 10 days we tracked them. On average, fledglings took flight for the first time 4 days after fledging and flew ≥10 m 9 days after fledging. Our data show that the Grasshopper Sparrow's survival rates may be less than most models relying on nest-success estimates predict, and we emphasize the importance of incorporating estimates of survival during the postfledging period in demographic models.

Iowa↗