Geology topics

James E. Hines

Publications and source records attributed to James E. Hines.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

USGS1999

Modeling data from double-tagging experiments to estimate heterogeneous rates of tag shedding in lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush)

Data from mark-recapture studies are used to estimate population rates such as exploitation, survival, and growth. Many of these applications assume negligible tag loss, so tag shedding can be a significant problem. Various tag shedding models have been developed for use with data from double-tagging experiments, including models to estimate constant instantaneous rates, time-dependent rates, and type I and II shedding rates. In this study, we used conditional (on recaptures) multinomial models implemented using the program SURVIV (G.C. White. 1983. J. Wildl. Manage. 47: 716-728) to estimate tag shedding rates of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and explore various potential sources of variation in these rates. We applied the models to data from several long-term double-tagging experiments with Lake Superior lake trout and estimated shedding rates for anchor tags in hatchery-reared and wild fish and for various tag types applied in these experiments. Estimates of annual tag retention rates for lake trout were fairly high (80-90%), but we found evidence (among wild fish only) that retention rates may be significantly lower in the first year due to type I losses. Annual retention rates for some tag types varied between male and female fish, but there was no consistent pattern across years. Our estimates of annual tag retention rates will be used in future studies of survival rates for these fish.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS1998

Higher temporal variability of forest breeding bird communities in fragmented landscapes

Understanding the relationship between animal community dynamics and landscape structure has become a priority for biodiversity conservation. In particular, predicting the effects of habitat destruction that confine species to networks of small patches is an important prerequisite to conservation plan development. Theoretical models that predict the occurrence of species in fragmented landscapes, and relationships between stability and diversity do exist. However, reliable empirical investigations of the dynamics of biodiversity have been prevented by differences in species detection probabilities among landscapes. Using long-term data sampled at a large spatial scale in conjunction with a capture-recapture approach, we developed estimates of parameters of community changes over a 22-year period for forest breeding birds in selected areas of the eastern United States. We show that forest fragmentation was associated not only with a reduced number of forest bird species, but also with increased temporal variability in the number of species. This higher temporal variability was associated with higher local extinction and turnover rates. These results have major conservation implications. Moreover, the approach used provides a practical tool for the study of the dynamics of biodiversity.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗

USGS1998

Estimating species richness: The importance of heterogeneity in species detectability

Estimating species richness (i.e., the actual number of species present in a given area) is a basic objective of many field studies carried out in community ecology and is also of crucial concern when dealing with the conservation and management of biodiversity. In most studies, the total number of species recorded in an area at a given time is taken as a measure of species richness. Here we use a capture–recapture approach to species richness estimation with North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data in order to estimate species detectability and thus gain insight about its importance. In particular, competing models making different assumptions about species detectability are available. We carried out analyses on all survey routes of four states, Arizona, Maryland, North Dakota, and Wisconsin, in two years, 1970 and 1990. These states were chosen to provide contrasting habitats, bird species composition, and survey quality. We investigated the effect of state, year, and observer ability on the proportions of different models selected, and on estimates of detectability and species richness. Our results indicate that model M h , which assumes heterogeneous detection probability among species, is frequently appropriate for estimating species richness from BBS data. Species detectability varied among states and was higher for the more skilled observers. These results emphasize the need to take into account potential heterogeneities in detectability among species in studies of factors affecting species richness.

Ecology↗

USGS1998

Are adult nonbreeders prudent parents? The kittiwake model

Understanding evolutionary consequences of intermittent breeding (nonbreeding in individuals that previously bred) requires investigation of the relationships between adult breeding state and two demographic parameters: survival probability and subsequent breeding probability. One major difficulty raised by comparing the demographic features of breeders and nonbreeders as estimated from capture–recapture data is that breeding state is often suspected to influence recapture or resighting probability. We used multistate capture–recapture models to test the hypothesis of equal recapture probabilities for breeding and nonbreeding Kittiwakes and found no evidence of an effect of breeding state on this parameter. The same method was used to test whether reproductive state affects survival probability. Nonbreeding individuals have lower survival rates than breeders. Moreover, nonbreeders have a higher probability of being nonbreeders the following year than do breeders. State-specific survival rates and transition probabilities vary from year to year, but temporal variations of survival and transition probabilities of breeders and nonbreeders are in parallel (on a logit scale). These inferences led us to conclude that nonbreeders tend to be lower quality individuals. The effect of sex was also investigated: males and females do not differ with respect to survival probabilities when reproductive state is taken into account. Similarly, there is no effect of sex on transition probabilities between reproductive states.

Ecology↗

USGS1997

Estimating temporary emigration using capture-recapture data with Pollock's robust design

Statistical inference for capture–recapture studies of open animal populations typically relies on the assumption that all emigration from the studied population is permanent. However, there are many instances in which this assumption is unlikely to be met. We define two general models for the process of temporary emigration: completely random and Markovian. We then consider effects of these two types of temporary emigration on Jolly–Seber estimators and on estimators arising from the full-likelihood approach to robust design data. Capture–recapture data arising from Pollock’s robust design provide the basis for obtaining unbiased estimates of demographic parameters in the presence of temporary emigration, and for estimating the probability of temporary emigration. We present a likelihood-based approach to dealing with temporary emigration that permits estimation under different models of temporary emigration and yields tests for completely random and Markovian emigration. In addition, we use the relationship between capture probability estimates based on closed and open models under completely random temporary emigration to derive three ad hoc estimators for the probability of temporary emigration. Two of these should be especially useful in situations where capture probabilities are heterogeneous among individual animals. Ad hoc and full-likelihood estimators are illustrated for small-mammal capture–recapture data sets. We believe that these models and estimators will be useful for testing hypotheses about the process of temporary emigration, for estimating demographic parameters in the presence of temporary emigration, and for estimating probabilities of temporary emigration. These latter estimates are frequently of ecological interest as indicators of animal movement and, in some sampling situations, as direct estimates of breeding probabilities and proportions.

Ecology↗

USGS1997

Tests for senescent decline in annual survival probabilities of common pochards, Aythya ferina

Senescent decline in survival probabilities of animals is a topic about which much has been written but little is known. Here, we present formal tests of senescence hypotheses, using 1373 recaptures from 8877 duckling (age 0) and 504 yearling Common Pochards (Aythya ferina) banded at a Latvian study site, 1975-1992. The tests are based on capture-recapture models that explicitly incorporate sampling probabilities that, themselves, may exhibit timeand age-specific variation. The tests provided no evidence of senescent decline in survival probabilities for this species. Power of the most useful test was low for gradual declines in annual survival probability with age, but good for steeper declines. We recommend use of this type of capture-recapture modeling and analysis for other investigations of senescence in animal survival rates.

Ecology↗

USGS1997

Capture-recapture analysis of a wintering black-capped chickadee population in Connecticut, 1958-1993

We investigated the dynamics of a wintering population of Black-capped Chickadees ( Parus atricapillus ) using data from a long-term capture-recapture study. Goodness-of-fit and likelihood-ratio tests indicated that the standard Jolly-Seber model was inadequate for the data, so we explored different parameterizations of a model in which survival probability for new captures differed from that of previously marked birds. One possible explanation for the lower local survival rate of new captures is that some of the birds were transients that had no chance of being recaptured. Average survival probability over the entire period was 0.62, and the estimated fraction of transients among unmarked birds was 0.27. We found evidence that chickadee survival rates were lower in years immediately following establishment of the Tufted Titmouse ( Parus bicolor ) as a territorial species (after 1967) than during years immediately preceding this event. We found no evidence that chickadee survival rates were lower in the years immediately following establishment of territorial raptors (after 1984) than during preceding years. Evidence suggested a long-term decline in survival probability from 1959 to 1991.

The Auk↗

USGS1996

Survival and recovery rates of American eiders in eastern North America

We analyzed banding and recovery data of adult female American eiders ( Somateria mollissima dresseri ) captured during the breeding season in eastern North America. We estimated survival rates for birds originating in the Atlantic Coast subpopulation to be 0.8730 ± 0.0156 (SE) while recovery rates were 0.0101 ± 0.0080 (SE). Support for several banding reference areas of American eiders was found. No trends were detected in band recovery, harvest rates or harvest over time.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS1995

Spring-summer survival rates of yearling versus adult mallard females

Knowledge of the timing, magnitude, and cause of mortality in wildlife populations is imperative for developing management strategies that protect or improve the status of these populations. Age- and sex-specific population parameter estimates provide the most useful information for this purpose. Numerous studies have provided information about survival rates in mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ), but little is known about age-related differences in female survival during the breeding period. We examined band-recovery data for female mallards banded in southern portions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba during spring and summer 1981-85. We used band-recovery models to test the hypothesis that yearling females would exhibit higher survival compared with that of older females during spring-summer. There was evidence ( P = 0.08) that spring-summer survival rates of yearling females (0.728) were higher than that of older females (0.574). These findings support the hypothesis that age-specific differences in nesting behavior (e.g., later nest initiation and fewer nesting attempts by yearlings) influence losses to predators and are responsible for the difference in spring-summer survival. Management treatments that increase nest success, and consequently reduce the need for prolonged nesting, will increase mallard survival during spring-summer.

Alberta, Manitoba, Saskatchewan↗

USGS1995

Geographic variation in band reporting rates for mallards based on reward banding

We conducted a reward band study on mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ) to estimate and test hypotheses about sources of variation in band reporting rate. We banded 25,398 mallards with standard and 100 reward bands (3 mallards banded with standard bands for every reward-banded mallard) during preseason (Jul-Sep), 1988. We used a series of multinomial models to model the resulting 2,776 band recoveries from 1988 to 1991. Estimates of reporting rate for males shot in 10 harvest areas ranged from 0.29 to 0.46 and averaged 0.38 (SE = 0.020). We found evidence ( P < 0.01) of geographic variation in reporting rates, but not of smooth latitudinal or longitudinal gradients. There was evidence ( P = 0.07) of lower reporting rates for females than males, especially in prairie Canada and the Central Flyway. Except for young males in the northern Atlantic Flyway, estimated harvest rates were lower than historical estimates, as expected from recent restrictive hunting regulations. Patterns of geographic and agesex variation in harvest rates were similar to those obtained using historical band-recovery data.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS1995

Banding reference areas and survival rates of green-winged teal, 1950-1989

The green-winged teal ( Anas crecca carolinensis ) is an important harvest species, yet we know relatively little about its population ecology. We investigated aspects of green-winged teal population ecology of potential importance to waterfowl managers. We used recoveries of green-winged teal banded during winter (1950-89) to establish banding reference areas and estimate survival and band recovery rates. We used cluster analysis based on similarities in recovery patterns to group banding degree blocks into 8 minor and 5 major reference areas describing the principal wintering range of green-winged teal in North America. We then estimated survival and recovery rates of green-winged teal banded in these areas. Mean annual survival rate estimates across years and reference areas were similar (P > 0.05) for males (0.55, SE = 0.022) and females (0.51, SE = 0.057). Mean annual recovery rate estimates were larger for males (0.033, SE = 0.0017) than for females (0.024, SE = 0.0024) ( P < 0.01). There was little evidence of temporal variation in survival or recovery rates for most datasets. There was evidence of geographic variation in survival rates among major reference areas for males ( P = 0.04) but not for females ( P = 0.30). We recommend that analyses be conducted on greenwinged teal banded during preseason to further investigate possible sex specificity of survival rates and to address questions about the relationship between harvest rates and survival.

California, Georgia, Kansas, Nevada, Ohio, Virgini↗

USGS1995

Use of solicited bands and separation of hunting and natural mortality: a comment

We previously presented (Conroy 1985, Conroy et al. 1989) models for analysis of band recovery data stratified into those voluntarily reported and those obtained by solicitation, similar to models described by Pollock et al. (1994). We discuss differences between the 2 modeling approaches and suggest designs and analyses involving overlapping samples of standard and reward bands to enable adjustment for temporal and geographic variation in reporting and solicitation rates,

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS1995

Estimating annual survival and movement rates of adults within a metapopulation of roseate terns

Several multistratum capture—recapture models were used to test various hypotheses about possible geographic and temporal variation in survival, movement, and recapture/resighting probabilities of 2399 adult Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) color—banded from 1988 to 1992 at the sites of the four largest breeding colonies of this species in the northeastern USA. Linear—logistic ultrastructural models also were developed to investigate possible correlates of geographic variation in movement probabilities. Based on goodness—of—fit tests and comparisons of Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) values, the fully parameterized model (Model A) with time— and location—specific survival, movement, and capture probabilities, was selected as the most appropriate model for this metapopulation structure. With almost all movement accounted for, on average >90% of the surviving adults from each colony site returned to the same site the following year. Variations in movement probabilities were more closely associated with the identity of the destination colony site than with either the identity of the colony site of origin or the distance between colony sites. The average annual survival estimates (0.74—0.84) of terns from all four sites indicate a high rate of annual mortality relative to that of other species of marine birds.

Ecology↗

USGS1994

Estimating breeding proportions and testing hypotheses about costs of reproduction with capture-recapture data

The proportion of animals in a population that breeds is an important determinant of population growth rate. Usual estimates of this quantity from field sampling data assume that the probability of appearing in the capture or count statistic is the same for animals that do and do not breed. A similar assumption is required by most existing methods used to test ecologically interesting hypotheses about reproductive costs using field sampling data. However, in many field sampling situations breeding and nonbreeding animals are likely to exhibit different probabilities of being seen or caught. In this paper, we propose the use of multistate capture-recapture models for these estimation and testing problems. This methodology permits a formal test of the hypothesis of equal capture/sighting probabilities for breeding and nonbreeding individuals. Two estimators of breeding proportion (and associated standard errors) are presented, one for the case of equal capture probabilities and one for the case of unequal capture probabilities. The multistate modeling framework also yields formal tests of hypotheses about reproductive costs to future reproduction or survival or both fitness components. The general methodology is illustrated using capture-recapture data on female meadow voles, Microtus pennsylvanicus. Resulting estimates of the proportion of reproductively active females showed strong seasonal variation, as expected, with low breeding proportions in midwinter. We found no evidence of reproductive costs extracted in subsequent survival or reproduction. We believe that this methodological framework has wide application to problems in animal ecology concerning breeding proportions and phenotypic reproductive costs.

Ecology↗

USGS1992

Survival of cackling Canada geese, 1982-1988

We estimated seasonal and annual survival rates of cackling Canada geese ( Branta canadensis minima ) for the period 1982-1989 to identify periods of high mortality and assess effects of harvest management decisions. We tested hypotheses about age- and sex specific variation in survival, seasonal variation in survival rates, and variation in survival between years in which hunting seasons were open and closed. Geese were marked with individually identifiable neckbands and observed from autumn through spring. We used these data to estimate survival rates for 3-month periods in early (EW) and late (LW) winter and a 6-month period in summer (SU). Mean annual survival rates of immature females were lower than those of adults over the entire study. Survival rates of immature males were lower than those of adults during the 2 years with sport hunting seasons. We found no evidence of sex-specific differences in seasonal or annual survival rates of immature geese. Mean survival rates of adult males and females were similar during EW and LW, but there was evidence of higher survival of females during SU. Annual survival rates of adult females were higher than those of adult males. Mean annual survival rates of adult females and immatures of both sexes were lower in the years during which sport hunting was permitted. Tests for different survival rates in years before and after an agreement with the Eskimos to cease summer hunting yielded equivocal results.

Alaska, California↗

USGS1992

Annual survival rates of adult and immature eastern population tundra swans

Tundra swans ( Cygnus columbianus) of the eastern population were neckbanded in Maryland, North Carolina, and Alaska from 1966 through 1990. These swans were resighted and recaptured during autumn, winter, and spring, 1966-1990. Although the original motivation for this study involved swan movements, we wanted to use the resulting data to test hypotheses about sources of variation in swan survival rates. Recaptures of legbanded and neckbanded swans permitted us to estimate neckband loss rates, which were found to vary with age and sex of swans, and number of years since initial application. Estimates of annual neckband retention rate ranged from about 0.50 for adult male swans ≥ 2 years after initial neckbanding to > 0.96 for immature swans and adult females the first year following neckbanding. This variation in neckband loss rates prevented the simple correction of survival estimates to account for such loss. Consequently, we developed a series of multinomial models parameterized with survival, sighting, and neckband retention probabilities for use with the recapture and resighting data.

Alaska, Maryland, North Carolina↗

USGS1991

Ectoparasitism and the role of green nesting material in the European starling

The use of green nesting material is widespread among birds. Recent evidence suggests that birds use secondary chemicals contained in green plants to control ectoparasites. We manipulated green nesting material and ectoparasites of European starlings ( Sturnus vulgaris ) to test two hypotheses: (1) ectoparasites adversely affect prefledging survival and morphometrics or postfledging survival, and (2) green nesting material ameliorates the effects of ectoparasites. We recorded fat score, numbers of scabs, tarsal length, body mass, and hematocrit level on each nestling 17 days after hatching. We also fitted each nestling with unique patagial tags and resighted the starlings for 6-8 weeks after fledging to estimate survival and sighting rates. Nests devoid of green nesting material and dusted with the insecticide, carbaryl, had fewer high ectoparasite infestations, and nestlings had significantly lower scab scores, and significantly higher body masses than nestlings in undusted boxes. However, there was no difference in postfledging survival between birds from carbaryl-treated and undusted nests. There also was no difference in prefledging survival and morphometrics or postfledging survival between nestlings from boxes with and without green nesting material. These results do not support the hypothesis that starlings use green nesting material to control nest ectoparasites. We suggest an alternative hypothesis; green nesting material is used for mate selection or pairbonding in the starling.

Oecologia↗

USGS1991

Historical changes in laying date, clutch size, and nest success of American black ducks

The breeding population of American black ducks ( Anas rubripes ) on Chesapeake Bay has declined over the past 30 years. We tested whether there have been changes in laying date, clutch size, and nest success of breeding black ducks on islands in Chesapeake Bay between the 1950's and 1980's. None of these variables differed significantly between decades, suggesting that other factors must be responsible for the decline in locally breeding black ducks.

Maryland, Virginia↗