Geology topics

James E. Hines

Publications and source records attributed to James E. Hines.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2021

What is the effect of poaching activity on wildlife species?

Poaching is a pervasive threat to wildlife, yet quantifying the direct effect of poaching on wildlife is rarely possible because both wildlife and threat data are infrequently collected concurrently. In this study, we used poaching data collected through the Management Information System (MIST) and wildlife camera trap data collected by the Tropical Ecology Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) network from 2014 to 2017 in Volcanoes National Park, Rwanda. We implemented co-occurrence multi-season occupancy models that accounted for imperfect detection to investigate the effect of poaching on initial occupancy, colonization, and extinction of 5 mammal species. Specifically, we focused on 2 species of conservation concern (mountain gorilla ( Gorilla beringei beringei ) and golden money ( Cercopithecus mitis kandti )), and 3 species targeted by poachers (black-fronted duiker ( Cephalophus nigrifrons ), bushbuck ( Tragelaphus scriptus ), and African buffalo ( Syncerus caffer )). We found that the probability of local extinction was highest in sites with poaching activity for golden monkey and bushbuck. In addition, the probability of initial occupancy for golden monkey was highest in sites without poaching activity. We only found weak evidence of effects of poaching on parameters governing the occupancy dynamics of the other species. All species showed evidence of poaching presence affecting the probability of detection of the wildlife species. This is the first study to our knowledge to combine direct threat observations from ranger-based monitoring data with camera trap wildlife observations to quantify the effect of poaching on wildlife. Given the widespread collection of ranger-based monitoring and camera trap data, our approach is broadly applicable to numerous protected areas and has the potential to significantly improve conservation management. Specifically, the relationship between poaching activity and wildlife population dynamics (this paper) can be combined with information on the relationship between ranger patrols and poaching activity (Moore et al. 2017) to develop models useful for making wise decisions about ranger patrol deployment.

Volcanoes National Park↗

USGS2021

Range-wide declines of northern spotted owl populations in the Pacific Northwest: A meta-analysis

The northern spotted owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) inhabits older coniferous forests in the Pacific Northwest and has been at the center of forest management issues in this region. The immediate threats to this federally listed species include habitat loss and competition with barred owls ( Strix varia ), which invaded from eastern North America. We conducted a prospective meta-analysis to assess population trends and factors affecting those trends in northern spotted owls using 26 years of survey and capture-recapture data from 11 study areas across the owls' geographic range to analyze demographic traits, rates of population change, and occupancy parameters for spotted owl territories. We found that northern spotted owl populations experienced significant declines of 6–9% annually on 6 study areas and 2–5% annually on 5 other study areas. Annual declines translated to ≤35% of the populations remaining on 7 study areas since 1995. Barred owl presence on spotted owl territories was the primary factor negatively affecting apparent survival, recruitment, and ultimately, rates of population change. Analysis of spotted and barred owl detections in an occupancy framework corroborated the capture-recapture analyses with barred owl presence increasing territorial extinction and decreasing territorial colonization of spotted owls. While landscape habitat components reduced the effect of barred owls on these rates of decline, they did not reverse the negative trend. Our analyses indicated that northern spotted owl populations potentially face extirpation if the negative effects of barred owls are not ameliorated while maintaining northern spotted owl habitat across their range.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2020

Spatiotemporal pattern of interactions between an apex predator and sympatric species

Increases in apex predator abundance can influence the behavior of sympatric species, particularly when the available habitat and/or resources are limited. We assessed the temporal and spatiotemporal interactions between Florida panthers ( Puma concolor coryi ) and six focal sympatric species in South Florida, where Florida panther abundance has increased by more than 6-fold since the 1990’s. Using camera trap data, we quantified species’ diel activity patterns, temporal overlap, and time-to-encounter (i.e., time between consecutive visits of a Florida panther and a focal species and vice versa). The Florida panther and bobcat ( Lynx rufus ) displayed a nocturnal activity pattern; the black bear ( Ursus americanus ), white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ), wild boar ( Sus scrofa ), and wild turkey ( Meleagris gallopavo ) were mostly diurnal; and the raccoon ( Procyon lotor ) was cathemeral. Prey species and black bears minimized encounters with Florida panthers by being active during the day and displaying longer time-to-encounter, whereas Florida panthers visited a site after a prey species at higher probabilities than after competitor species, and were more likely to visit an elevated site or upland habitat. Our results suggest that interactions between Florida panthers and sympatric species in our study system are driven by species-specific behavioral responses. Gaining a better understanding of the crucial interactions driving species coexistence is important for a better understanding of the structure and function of ecological communities and help manage the potential expansion of the Florida panther into Central Florida.

Florida↗

USGS2020

Demography of snowshoe hare population cycles

Cyclic fluctuations in abundance exhibited by some mammalian populations in northern habitats (“population cycles”) are key processes in the functioning of many boreal and tundra ecosystems. Understanding population cycles, essentially demographic processes, necessitates discerning the demographic mechanisms that underlie numerical changes. Using mark–recapture data spanning five population cycles (1977–2017), we examined demographic mechanisms underlying the 9–10‐yr cycles exhibited by snowshoe hares ( Lepus americanus Erxleben) in southwestern Yukon, Canada. Snowshoe hare populations always decreased during winter and increased during summer; the balance between winter declines and summer increases characterized the four, multiyear cyclic phases: increase, peak, decline, and low. Little or no recruitment occurred during winter, but summer recruitment varied markedly across the four phases with the highest and lowest recruitment observed during the increase and decline phase, respectively. Population crashes during the decline were triggered by a substantial decline in winter survival and by a lack of subsequent summer recruitment. In contrast, initiation of the increase phase was triggered by a twofold increase in summer recruitment abetted secondarily by improvements in subsequent winter survival. We show that differences in peak density across cycles are explained by differences in overall population growth rate, amount of time available for population growth to occur, and starting population density. Demographic mechanisms underlying snowshoe hare population cycles were consistent across cycles in our study site but we do not yet know if similar demographic processes underlie population cycles in other northern snowshoe hare populations.

Yukon↗

USGS2020

Habitat use by tiger prey in Thailand’s Western Forest Complex: What will it take to fill a half-full tiger landscape?

Tiger populations are declining globally, and depletion of major ungulate prey is an important contributing factor. To better understand factors affecting prey distribution in Thailand’s Western Forest Complex (WEFCOM), we conducted sign surveys for gaur (Bos gaurus ), banteng ( Bos javanicus ), and sambar ( Rusa unicolor ) along 3517 1-km transects and used occupancy models to identify important covariates associated with habitat use by each species. Habitat use by both gaur and sambar was lowest in areas closest to human settlements, although sambar preferred lower slopes near streams whereas gaur preferred steeper slopes at higher elevations. Banteng were found in only one of 17 protected areas (Huai Kha Khaeng [HKK] Wildlife Sanctuary), where they used low elevations and low slopes. We used these modeled relationships to predict occurrence of gaur, sambar, and banteng across each square km of the 19,000 km 2 WEFCOM landscape, using > 60 % occupancy probability to define suitable habitat use for each species. Based on this criterion, gaur and sambar occupied 28 and 50 % of suitable habitat in WEFCOM, and banteng occupied 57 % of suitable habitat in HKK. We used our models to assess the effectiveness of two hypothetical conservation initiatives. First, we modeled the impact of decreasing human activities around nine villages in the core of WEFCOM, which increased predicted suitable habitat in WEFCOM to 68 and 75 % for guar and sambar. We also modeled the extent of potential banteng habitat that still remains in the other 16 protected areas. This could result in a 4-fold increase in banteng suitable habitat in WEFCOM. This is the first study to use occupancy surveys to determine where large prey species can be restored to support management to increase the distribution of tigers, and potentially fill a half-full tiger landscape.

Journal for Nature Conservation↗

USGS2020

A multi-state occupancy modelling framework for robust estimation of disease prevalence in multi-tissue disease systems

Given the public health, economic and conservation implications of zoonotic diseases, their effective surveillance is of paramount importance. The traditional approach to estimating pathogen prevalence as the proportion of infected individuals in the population is biased because it fails to account for imperfect detection. A statistically robust way to reduce bias in prevalence estimates is to obtain repeated samples (or sample many tissues in multi‐tissue disease systems) and to apply statistical methods that account for imperfect detection and permit the interdependence of the infection process across multiple tissues. We developed a multi‐state occupancy modelling framework which considers two scenarios about the infection process, one where no assumptions about the dependencies among the tissues are made (general), and another where dependence among tissues is not permitted (constrained). We applied this framework to pseudorabies virus (PrV) DNA detection data obtained from whole blood; and oral, nasal and genital mucosa of 510 feral swine Sus scrofa during the years 2014–2016 in Florida, USA. The constrained model was better supported by data. PrV prevalence estimates varied among tissues and were higher than the naïve estimates, ranging from to 0.06 (CI: 0.02–0.14) in genital to 0.54 (CI: 0.14 ‐ 0.82) in nasal tissue. Probability of PrV detection ranged from 0.11 (CI: 0.06–0.18) in nasal to 0.51 (CI: 0.21–0.81) in genital tissue. PrV prevalence was not affected by the age or sex of the animal or the year of sampling, but prevalence increased as drought severity increased. The conditional probability of detecting PrV given infection in at least one tissue type within an individual was highest for nasal tissue, suggesting that nasal is the best tissue to sample for PrV surveillance if only one tissue can be sampled, at least for systems with tissue‐specific prevalence and detection probabilities similar to ours. Synthesis and applications . We focused on inferences about pathogen prevalence in multi‐tissue disease systems, dealing with both nondetection and potential dependencies among tissues in infection status. We found strong evidence of variation in both prevalence and detection probabilities among tissues. Our results emphasize the importance of sampling multiple tissues and of applying inference methods that account for imperfect detection in the surveillance of systemic diseases. The multi‐state modelling framework is broadly applicable to the surveillance of pathogens that infect multiple tissues and can be used even when the infection status of the pathogen in one tissue may depend on the infection status of the pathogen in other tissue(s).

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2019

Factors affecting species richness and distribution spatially and temporally within a protected area using multi-season occupancy models

Exploring trends in species richness and the distribution of individual species over time as well as the factors affecting these trends informs conservation priorities in protecting species and ecosystems as a whole. We used data from 41 park-wide line transect surveys in 2009 and 2014 and multi-season occupancy models with multi-species data to explore trends in species richness and distribution of individual species and factors affecting these trends in Nyungwe National Park (NNP), Rwanda. Mammalian species richness and the distributional range of 5 of the 7 species increased between 2009 and 2014 in NNP. The probability of colonization of a species into a new area in 2014, where it was not present in 2009, was highest in sites with a lower probability of poaching activity, close to tourist trails, and at lower elevations. The probability of colonization with no poaching activity was about 50% but dropped to about 10% with a 100% chance of poaching activity. Duiker species had the largest increase in distribution during the study, while there was a decrease in the distribution of the eastern chimpanzee and blue monkey. Our results suggest that increased patrols should be implemented in areas of the park with low species richness and areas with a low probability of occurrence for species of conservation concern to combat poaching activity and thus increase the probability of a species moving into a new area. Our use of a single multi-season model for multiple species explicitly accounts for imperfect detection and species-specific identities, while allowing for inferences to be made about rarely detected species by sharing covariates with common species. These results can be used to improve conservation planning in NNP for species management and ranger patrol protocols and our modelling framework is broadly applicable to any protected area with presence/absence species field data.

Nyungwe Forest National Park↗

USGS2019

Impact of prey occupancy and other ecological and anthropogenic factors on Tiger distribution in Thailand’s Western Forest Complex

Despite conservation efforts, large mammals such as tigers (Panthera tigris) and their main prey, gaur (Bos gaurus), banteng (Bos javanicus), and sambar (Rusa unicolor), are highly threatened and declining across their entire range. The only large viable source population of tigers in mainland Southeast Asia occurs in Thailand's Western Forest Complex (WEFCOM), an approximately 19,000 km 2 landscape of 17 contiguous protected areas. We used an occupancy modeling framework, which accounts for imperfect detection, to identify the factors that affect tiger distribution at the approximate scale of a female tiger's home range, 64 km 2 , and site use at a scale of 1-km 2 . At the larger scale, we estimated the proportion of sites at WEFCOM that were occupied by tigers; at the finer scale, we identified the key variables that influence site-use and developed a predictive distribution map. At both scales, we examined key anthropogenic and ecological factors that help explain tiger distribution and habitat use, including probabilities of gaur, banteng, and sambar occurrence from a companion study. Occupancy estimated at the 64-km 2 scale was primarily influenced by the combined presence of all three large prey species, and 37% or 5,858 km 2 of the landscape was predicted to be occupied by tigers. In contrast, site use estimated at the scale of 1 km 2 was most strongly influenced by the presence of sambar. By modeling occupancy while accounting for imperfect probability of detection, we established reliable benchmark data on the distribution of tigers in WEFCOM. This study also identified factors that limit tiger distributions; which managers can then target to expand tiger distribution and guide recovery elsewhere in Southeast Asia.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2019

Partitioning global change: Assessing the relative importance of changes in climate and land cover for changes in avian distribution

Understanding the relative impact of climate change and land cover change on changes in avian distribution has implications for the future course of avian distributions and appropriate management strategies. Due to the dynamic nature of climate change, our goal was to investigate the processes that shape species distributions, rather than the current distributional patterns. To this end, we analyzed changes in the distribution of Eastern Wood Pewees (Contopus virens) and Red-eyed Vireos (Vireo olivaceus) from 1997 to 2012 using Breeding Bird Survey data and dynamic correlated-detection occupancy models. We estimated the local colonization and extinction rates of these species in relation to changes in climate (hours of extreme temperature) and changes in land cover (amount of nesting habitat). We fit six nested models to partition the deviance explained by spatial and temporal components of land cover and climate. We isolated the temporal components of environmental variables because this is the essence of global change. For both species, model fit was significantly improved when we modeled vital rates as a function of spatial variation in climate and land cover. Model fit only improved insignificantly when we added temporal variation in climate and land cover to the model. Temporal variation in climate explained more deviance than temporal variation in land cover, although both combined only explained 20% (Eastern Wood Pewee) and 6% (Red-eyed Vireo) of temporal variation in vital rates. Our results showing a significant correlation between initial occupancy and environmental covariates are consistent with biological expectation and previous studies. Our results estimating a weak correlation between vital rates and temporal changes in covariates indicate that we have yet to identify the most relevant components of global change changing the distributions of these species and, more significantly, that spatially significant covariates are not necessarily driving temporal shifts in avian distributions.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2019

Size-specific apparent survival rate estimates of white sharks using mark-recapture models

For species that exist at low abundance or are otherwise difficult to study, it is challenging to estimate vital rates such as survival and fecundity and common to assume that survival rates are constant across ages and sexes. Population assessments based on overly simplistic vital rates can lead to erroneous conclusions. We estimated sex and length-based annual apparent survival rates for white sharks (Carcharodon carcharias). We found evidence that annual apparent survival differed over ontogeny in a system with competitive foraging aggregations, from 0.63 (SE = 0.08) for newly recruiting sub-adults to 0.95 (SE = 0.02) for the largest sharks. Our results reveal a potential challenge to ontogenetic recruitment in a long-lived, highly mobile top marine predator, as survival rates for sub-adult white sharks may be lower than previously assumed. Alternatively, younger and competitively inferior individuals may be forced to permanently emigrate from primary foraging sites. This study provides new methodology for estimating apparent survival as a function of diverse covariates by capture-recapture study including when sex assignment is uncertain.

California↗

USGS2018

Scale‐dependent effects of isolation on seasonal patch colonisation by two Neotropical freshwater fishes

The metapopulation paradigm has been central to improve the conservation and management of natural populations. However, despite the large number of studies on metapopulation dynamics, the overall support for the relationships on which the paradigm is based has not been strong. Here, we studied the occupancy dynamics of two Neotropical fishes (i.e., Pimelodella gracilis and Leporinus friderici ) to investigate two fundamental premises of the metapopulation paradigm, that is, that isolation and area/habitat quality affect colonisation and extinction probabilities in predictable ways. In order to do this, we used a modification of occupancy models that allows modelling the probability of a site's occupancy as a function of the occupancy of its neighbourhood. We found a weak positive effect of neighbourhood occupancy on P . gracilis colonisation, which is consistent with the propagule rain metapopulation, that is, colonists arriving from outside the studied system. However, we found a strong negative neighbourhood effect on extinction probability, suggesting that declining populations from stream sections are rescued from extinction by neighbouring patches. In contrast, the effect of neighbourhood occupancy on the metapopulation dynamics of L. friderici was in the opposite direction, affecting positively colonisation but not affecting extinction rates, which is consistent with the classical metapopulation model. In addition, the occupancy dynamics of both species were affected by water velocity. To our knowledge, this is the first study to link directly dispersal to local population dynamics in Neotropical fishes, and one of the few studies doing inferences on spatial population dynamics based on direct estimates of neighbourhood occupancy.

Ecology of Freshwater Fish↗

USGS2018

Occupancy in community-level studies

Another type of multi-species studies, are those focused on community-level metrics such as species richness. In this chapter we detail how some of the single-species occupancy models described in earlier chapters have been applied, or extended, for use in such studies, while accounting for imperfect detection. We highlight how Bayesian methods using MCMC are particularly useful in such settings to easily calculate relevant community-level summaries based on presence/absence data. These modeling approaches can be used to assess richness at a single point in time, or to investigate changes in the species pool over time.

Book chapter↗

USGS2017

Are ranger patrols effective in reducing poaching-related threats within protected areas?

Poaching is one of the greatest threats to wildlife conservation world-wide. However, the spatial and temporal patterns of poaching activities within protected areas, and the effectiveness of ranger patrols and ranger posts in mitigating these threats, are relatively unknown. We used 10 years (2006–2015) of ranger-based monitoring data and dynamic multi-season occupancy models to quantify poaching-related threats, to examine factors influencing the spatio-temporal dynamics of these threats and to test the efficiency of management actions to combat poaching in Nyungwe National Park (NNP), Rwanda. The probability of occurrence of poaching-related threats was highest at lower elevations (1,801–2,200 m), especially in areas that were close to roads and tourist trails; conversely, occurrence probability was lowest at high elevation sites (2,601–3,000 m), and near the park boundary and ranger posts. The number of ranger patrols substantially increased the probability that poaching-related threats disappear at a site if threats were originally present (i.e. probability of extinction of threats). Without ranger visits, the annual probability of extinction of poaching-related threats was an estimated 7%; this probability would increase to 20% and 57% with 20 and 50 ranger visits per year, respectively. Our results suggest that poaching-related threats can be effectively reduced in NNP by adding ranger posts in areas where they do not currently exist, and by increasing the number of patrols to sites where the probability of poaching activities is high. Synthesis and applications . Our application of dynamic occupancy models to predict the probability of presence of poaching-related threats is novel, and explicitly considers imperfect detection of illegal activities. Based on the modelled relationships, we identify areas that are most vulnerable to poaching, and offer insights regarding how ranger patrols can be optimally deployed to reduce poaching-related threats and other illegal activites, while taking into account potential sampling biases. We show that poaching can be effectively reduced by increasing ranger patrols to areas under high risk of poaching activities, and by adding ranger patrols near these sites. These findings are broadly applicable to national parks and protected areas experiencing a high degree of poaching and other illegal activities.

Nyungwe National Park↗

USGS2017

Territory occupancy and breeding success of Peregrine Falcons Falco peregrinus at various stages of population recovery

Organochlorine pesticides disrupted reproduction and killed many raptorial birds, and contributed to population declines during the 1940s to 1970s. We sought to discern whether and to what extent territory occupancy and breeding success changed from the pesticide era to recent years in a resident population of Peregrine Falcons Falco peregrinus in southern Scotland using long-term (1964–2015) field data and multi-state, multi-season occupancy models. Peregrine territories that were occupied with successful reproduction in one year were much more likely to be occupied and experience reproductive success in the following year, compared with those that were unoccupied or occupied by unsuccessful breeders in the previous year. Probability of territory occupancy differed between territories in the eastern and western parts of the study area, and varied over time. The probability of occupancy of territories that were unoccupied and those that were occupied with successful reproduction during the previous breeding season generally increased over time, whereas the probability of occupancy of territories that were occupied after failed reproduction decreased. The probability of reproductive success (conditional on occupancy) in territories that were occupied during the previous breeding season increased over time. Specifically, for territories that had been successful in the previous year, the probability of occupancy as well as reproductive success increased steadily over time; these probabilities were substantially higher in recent years than earlier, when the population was still exposed to direct or residual effects of organochlorine pesticides. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that progressive reduction, followed by a complete ban, in the use of organochlorine pesticides improved reproductive success of Peregrines in southern Scotland. Differences in the temporal pattern of probability of reproductive success between south-eastern and south-western Scotland suggest that the effect of organochlorine pesticides on Peregrine reproductive success and/or the recovery from pesticide effects varied geographically and was possibly affected by other factors such as persecution.

Ibis↗

USGS2016

Evaluation of nutria (Myocastor coypus) detection methods in Maryland, USA

Nutria ( Myocaster coypus ), invasive, semi-aquatic rodents native to South America, were introduced into Maryland near Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge (BNWR) in 1943. Irruptive population growth, expansion, and destructive feeding habits resulted in the destruction of thousands of acres of emergent marshes at and surrounding BNWR. In 2002, a partnership of federal, state and private entities initiated an eradication campaign to protect remaining wetlands from further damage and facilitate the restoration of coastal wetlands throughout the Chesapeake Bay region. Program staff removed nearly 14,000 nutria from five infested watersheds in a systematic trapping and hunting program between 2002 and 2014. As part of ongoing surveillance activities, the Chesapeake Bay Nutria Eradication Project uses a variety of tools to detect and remove nutria. Project staff developed a floating raft, or monitoring platform, to determine site occupancy. These platforms are placed along waterways and checked periodically for evidence of nutria visitation. We evaluated the effectiveness of monitoring platforms and three associated detection methods: hair snares, presence of scat, and trail cameras. Our objectives were to (1) determine if platform placement on land or water influenced nutria visitation rates, (2) determine if the presence of hair snares influenced visitation rates, and (3) determine method-specific detection probabilities. Our analyses indicated that platforms placed on land were 1.5–3.0 times more likely to be visited than those placed in water and that platforms without snares were an estimated 1.7–3.7 times more likely to be visited than those with snares. Although the presence of snares appears to have discouraged visitation, seasonal variation may confound interpretation of these results. Scat was the least effective method of determining nutria visitation, while hair snares were as effective as cameras. Estimated detection probabilities provided by occupancy modeling were 0.73 for hair snares, 0.71 for cameras and 0.40 for scat. We recommend the use of hair snares on monitoring platforms as they are the most cost-effective and reliable detection method available at this time. Future research should focus on determining the cause for the observed decrease in nutria visits after snares were applied.

Maryland↗

USGS2016

Roseate Tern breeding dispersal and fidelity: Responses to two newly restored colony sites

We used 22 yr of capture–mark–reencounter (CMR) data collected from 1988 to 2009 on about 12,500 birds at what went from three to five coastal colony sites in Massachusetts, New York, and Connecticut, United States, to examine spatial and temporal variation in breeding dispersal/fidelity rates of adult Roseate Terns ( Sterna dougallii ). At the start of our study, Roseate Terns nested at only one site (Bird Island) in Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts, but two more sites in this bay (Ram and Penikese Islands) were subsequently recolonized and became incorporated into our CMR metapopulation study. We examined four major hypotheses about factors we thought might influence colony-site fidelity and movement rates in the restructured system. We found some evidence that colony-site fidelity remained higher at long-established sites compared with newer ones and that breeding dispersal was more likely to occur among nearby sites than distant ones. Sustained predation at Falkner Island, Connecticut, did not result in a sustained drop in fidelity rates of breeders. Patterns of breeding dispersal differed substantially at the two restored sites. The fidelity of Roseate Terns at Bird dropped quickly after nearby Ram was recolonized in 1994, and fidelity rates for Ram soon approached those for Bird. After an oil spill in Buzzards Bay in April 2003, hazing (deliberate disturbance) of the terns at Ram prior to the start of egg-laying resulted in lowering of fidelity at this site, a decrease in immigration from Bird, and recolonization of Penikese by Roseate Terns. Annual fidelity rates at Penikese increased somewhat several years after the initial recolonization, but they remained much lower there than at all the other sites throughout the study period. The sustained high annual rates of emigration from Penikese resulted in the eventual failure of the restoration effort there, and in 2013, no Roseate Terns nested at this site.

Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island↗

USGS2016

Estimating indices of range shifts in birds using dynamic models when detection is imperfect

There is intense interest in basic and applied ecology about the effect of global change on current and future species distributions. Projections based on widely used static modeling methods implicitly assume that species are in equilibrium with the environment and that detection during surveys is perfect. We used multiseason correlated detection occupancy models, which avoid these assumptions, to relate climate data to distributional shifts of Louisiana Waterthrush in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data. We summarized these shifts with indices of range size and position and compared them to the same indices obtained using more basic modeling approaches. Detection rates during point counts in BBS surveys were low, and models that ignored imperfect detection severely underestimated the proportion of area occupied and slightly overestimated mean latitude. Static models indicated Louisiana Waterthrush distribution was most closely associated with moderate temperatures, while dynamic occupancy models indicated that initial occupancy was associated with diurnal temperature ranges and colonization of sites was associated with moderate precipitation. Overall, the proportion of area occupied and mean latitude changed little during the 1997–2013 study period. Near-term forecasts of species distribution generated by dynamic models were more similar to subsequently observed distributions than forecasts from static models. Occupancy models incorporating a finite mixture model on detection – a new extension to correlated detection occupancy models – were better supported and may reduce bias associated with detection heterogeneity. We argue that replacing phenomenological static models with more mechanistic dynamic models can improve projections of future species distributions. In turn, better projections can improve biodiversity forecasts, management decisions, and understanding of global change biology.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2015

The effects of habitat, climate, and Barred Owls on long-term demography of Northern Spotted Owls

Estimates of species' vital rates and an understanding of the factors affecting those parameters over time and space can provide crucial information for management and conservation. We used mark–recapture, reproductive output, and territory occupancy data collected during 1985–2013 to evaluate population processes of Northern Spotted Owls ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) in 11 study areas in Washington, Oregon, and northern California, USA. We estimated apparent survival, fecundity, recruitment, rate of population change, and local extinction and colonization rates, and investigated relationships between these parameters and the amount of suitable habitat, local and regional variation in meteorological conditions, and competition with Barred Owls ( Strix varia ). Data were analyzed for each area separately and in a meta-analysis of all areas combined, following a strict protocol for data collection, preparation, and analysis. We used mixed effects linear models for analyses of fecundity, Cormack-Jolly-Seber open population models for analyses of apparent annual survival (ϕ), and a reparameterization of the Jolly-Seber capture–recapture model (i.e. reverse Jolly-Seber; RJS) to estimate annual rates of population change (λ RJS ) and recruitment. We also modeled territory occupancy dynamics of Northern Spotted Owls and Barred Owls in each study area using 2-species occupancy models. Estimated mean annual rates of population change (λ) suggested that Spotted Owl populations declined from 1.2% to 8.4% per year depending on the study area. The weighted mean estimate of λ for all study areas was 0.962 (± 0.019 SE; 95% CI: 0.925–0.999), indicating an estimated range-wide decline of 3.8% per year from 1985 to 2013. Variation in recruitment rates across the range of the Spotted Owl was best explained by an interaction between total winter precipitation and mean minimum winter temperature. Thus, recruitment rates were highest when both total precipitation (29 cm) and minimum winter temperature (−9.5°C) were lowest. Barred Owl presence was associated with increased local extinction rates of Spotted Owl pairs for all 11 study areas. Habitat covariates were related to extinction rates for Spotted Owl pairs in 8 of 11 study areas, and a greater amount of suitable owl habitat was generally associated with decreased extinction rates. We observed negative effects of Barred Owl presence on colonization rates of Spotted Owl pairs in 5 of 11 study areas. The total amount of suitable Spotted Owl habitat was positively associated with colonization rates in 5 areas, and more habitat disturbance was associated with lower colonization rates in 2 areas. We observed strong declines in derived estimates of occupancy in all study areas. Mean fecundity of females was highest for adults (0.309 ± 0.027 SE), intermediate for 2-yr-olds (0.179 ± 0.040 SE), and lowest for 1-yr-olds (0.065 ± 0.022 SE). The presence of Barred Owls and habitat covariates explained little of the temporal variation in fecundity in most study areas. Climate covariates occurred in competitive fecundity models in 8 of 11 study areas, but support for these relationships was generally weak. The fecundity meta-analysis resulted in 6 competitive models, all of which included the additive effects of geographic region and annual time variation. The 2 top-ranked models also weakly supported the additive negative effects of the amount of suitable core area habitat, Barred Owl presence, and the amount of edge habitat on fecundity. We found strong support for a negative effect of Barred Owl presence on apparent survival of Spotted Owls in 10 of 11 study areas, but found few strong effects of habitat on survival at the study area scale. Climate covariates occurred in top or competitive survival models for 10 of 11 study areas, and in most cases the relationships were as predicted; however, there was little consistency among areas regarding the relative importance of specific climate covariates. In contrast, meta-analysis results suggested that Spotted Owl survival was higher across all study areas when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) was in a warming phase and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was negative, with a strongly negative SOI indicative of El Niño events. The best model that included the Barred Owl covariate (BO) was ranked 4 th and also included the PDO covariate, but the BO effect was strongly negative. Our results indicated that Northern Spotted Owl populations were declining throughout the range of the subspecies and that annual rates of decline were accelerating in many areas. We observed strong evidence that Barred Owls negatively affected Spotted Owl populations, primarily by decreasing apparent survival and increasing local territory extinction rates. However, the amount of suitable owl habitat, local weather, and regional climatic patterns also were related to survival, occupancy (via colonization rate), recruitment, and, to a lesser extent, fecundity, although there was inconsistency in regard to which covariates were important for particular demographic parameters or across study areas. In the study areas where habitat was an important source of variation for Spotted Owl demographics, vital rates were generally positively associated with a greater amount of suitable owl habitat. However, Barred Owl densities may now be high enough across the range of the Northern Spotted Owl that, despite the continued management and conservation of suitable owl habitat on federal lands, the long-term prognosis for the persistence of Northern Spotted Owls may be in question without additional management intervention. Based on our study, the removal of Barred Owls from the Green Diamond Resources (GDR) study area had rapid, positive effects on Northern Spotted Owl survival and the rate of population change, supporting the hypothesis that, along with habitat conservation and management, Barred Owl removal may be able to slow or reverse Northern Spotted Owl population declines on at least a localized scale.

California, Oregon, Washington↗