Geology topics

Jacquelyn R. Overbeck

Publications and source records attributed to Jacquelyn R. Overbeck.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Current and projected flood exposure for Alaska coastal communities

Globally, coastal communities experience flood hazards that are projected to worsen from climate change and sea level rise. The 100-year floodplain or record flood are commonly used to identify risk areas for planning purposes. Remote communities often lack measured flood elevations and require innovative approaches to estimate flood elevations. This study employs observation-based methods to estimate the record flood elevation in Alaska communities and compares results to elevation models, infrastructure locations, and sea level rise projections. In 46 analyzed communities, 22% of structures are located within the record floodplain. With sea level rise projections, this estimate increases to 30–37% of structures by 2100 if structures remain in the same location. Flood exposure is highest in western Alaska. Sea level rise projections suggest northern Alaska will see similar flood exposure levels by 2100 as currently experienced in western Alaska. This evaluation of record flood height, category, and history can be incorporated into hazard planning documents, providing more context for coastal flood exposure than previously existed for Alaska. This basic flood exposure method is transferable to other areas with similar mapping challenges. Identifying current and projected hazardous zones is essential to avoid unintentional development in floodplains and improve long-term safety.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Barrier island reconfiguration leads to rapid erosion and relocation of a rural Alaska community

Coastal erosion is one of the foremost hazards that circumpolar communities face. Climate change and warming temperatures are anticipated to accelerate coastal change, increasing risk to coastal communities. Most erosion hazard studies for Alaska communities only consider linear erosion and do not anticipate coastal morphologic changes. This study showcases the possibility and consequence of accelerated erosion by examining a shift from stability to rapid erosion that forced the rural Alaska Native village of Meshik (now Port Heiden) to abandon the original town site and relocate inland. A combination of remote sensing, coastal surveys, and community-based monitoring are used to map coastal morphologic changes and identify erosion drivers. The community’s shoreline was stable until a protective barrier island eroded away. The exposure to open ocean waves, coupled with unconsolidated, low-density sediments, led to rapid erosion rates averaging of 5.8 ± 0.6 m/y from the 1970s to 2020s. The sudden and rapid erosion put great stress on Meshik and resulted in the loss of homes, erosion of a safe boat harbor, and pollution of the beach and bay. Erosion of the barrier island coincided with a period of greater storm activity and sea ice decline, but the exact cause for its erosion could not be determined. Many polar communities are built on or behind barriers and are on easily erodible soils such as sands and thawing permafrost. This study highlights the need to study, monitor, and predict morphologic change and regime shifts that can bring catastrophic impacts to coastal communities.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

A conceptual workflow for projecting future riverine and coastal flood hazards to support the federal flood risk management standard

In 2021, the reinstatement of the Federal Flood Risk Management Standard (FFRMS) required federally funded projects to recognize potential increases in flood hazards over their service lives due to climate change or local anthropogenic perturbations. Recognizing that the state of the science had advanced since the implementation guidelines for this standard were published in 2015 (WRC, 2015, Appendix H), an interagency state-of-the-science review committee conceptualized a workflow to guide the mapping and risk communication of projected future flood hazards in both riverine and coastal settings. This five-element workflow connects climate, hydrologic, and hydraulic models, incorporates land and water management impacts and ongoing geomorphic changes, and can be tailored to the unique nature of different agency needs and resources. These conceptual workflows also provide a basis for a Climate-Informed Science Approach (CISA) implementation roadmap that identifies incremental steps for addressing the research and data gaps elucidated in our review. Many of these incremental steps present opportunities for interagency collaboration that would facilitate the rollout of the FFRMS in diverse riverine and coastal settings of the United States. We conduct case-study thought experiments to evaluate the implementation of the riverine and coastal workflows at three different locations in the United States: central Indiana, Galveston, Texas, and a small coastal community in western Alaska (Shaktoolik). Our thought experiments consider different project horizons, data availability, failure consequences, technical training requirements, and computational resources.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2020

Coastal permafrost erosion

Highlights • Since the early 2000s, erosion of permafrost coasts in the Arctic has increased at 13 of 14 sites with observational data that extend back to ca. 1960 and ca. 1980, coinciding with warming temperatures, sea ice reduction, and permafrost thaw. • Permafrost coasts along the US and Canadian Beaufort Sea experienced the largest increase in erosion rates in the Arctic, ranging from +80 to +160%, when comparing average rates from the last two decades of the 20th century with the first two decades of the 21st century. • The initiation of several national and international research networks in recent years has enabled closer coordination and collaboration of measurements and a better understanding of pan-Arctic permafrost coastal dynamics.

Arctic Report Card↗

USGS2018

Climate Change in Port Heiden, Alaska - Strategies for Community Health

There are two components to this document. The first component is the scope of described environmental change and its impacts in Port Heiden Alaska. The second component is a list of priorities to be addressed that will help Port Heiden achieve its vision for the future. Each priority area incorporates local knowledge with available climate science and takes the expected future changes in to consideration.

Alaska↗

USGS2017

Testing model parameters for wave‐induced dune erosion using observations from Hurricane Sandy

Models of dune erosion depend on a set of assumptions that dictate the predicted evolution of dunes throughout the duration of a storm. Lidar observations made before and after Hurricane Sandy at over 800 profiles with diverse dune elevations, widths, and volumes are used to quantify specific dune erosion model parameters including the dune face slope, which controls dune avalanching, and the trajectory of the dune toe, which controls dune migration. Wave‐impact models of dune erosion assume a vertical dune face and erosion of the dune toe along the foreshore beach slope. Observations presented here show that these assumptions are not always valid and require additional testing if these models are to be used to predict coastal vulnerability for decision‐making purposes. Observed dune face slopes steepened by 43% yet did not become vertical faces, and only 50% of the dunes evolved along a trajectory similar to the foreshore beach slope. Observations also indicate that dune crests were lowered during dune erosion. Moreover, analysis showed a correspondence between dune lowering and narrower beaches, smaller dune volumes, and/or longer wave impact.

Maryland, New Jersey, New York↗

USGS2015

A method for determining average beach slope and beach slope variability for U.S. sandy coastlines

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Assessment of Hurricane-Induced Coastal Erosion Hazards compares measurements of beach morphology with storm-induced total water levels to produce forecasts of coastal change for storms impacting the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastlines of the United States. The wave-induced water level component (wave setup and swash) is estimated by using modeled offshore wave height and period and measured beach slope (from dune toe to shoreline) through the empirical parameterization of Stockdon and others (2006). Spatial and temporal variability in beach slope leads to corresponding variability in predicted wave setup and swash. For instance, seasonal and storm-induced changes in beach slope can lead to differences on the order of 1 meter (m) in wave-induced water level elevation, making accurate specification of this parameter and its associated uncertainty essential to skillful forecasts of coastal change. A method for calculating spatially and temporally averaged beach slopes is presented here along with a method for determining total uncertainty for each 200-m alongshore section of coastline.

North Carolina↗