Community online resource for statistical seismicity analysis
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Seismological Research Letters↗
Geology topics
J.L. Hardebeck
Publications and source records attributed to J.L. Hardebeck.
Seismicity rate changes along the central California coast due to stress changes from the 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon and 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield earthquakes
We investigated the relationship between seismicity rate changes and modeled Coulomb static stress changes from the 2003 M 6.5 San Simeon and the 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield earthquakes in central California. Coulomb stress modeling indicates that the San Simeon mainshock loaded parts of the Rinconada, Hosgri, and San Andreas strike-slip faults, along with the reverse faults of the southern Los Osos domain. All of these loaded faults, except for the San Andreas, experienced a seismicity rate increase at the time of the San Simeon mainshock. The Parkfield earthquake occurred 9 months later on the loaded portion of the San Andreas fault. The Parkfield earthquake unloaded the Hosgri fault and the reverse faults of the southern Los Osos domain, which both experienced seismicity rate decreases at the time of the Parkfield event, although the decreases may be related to the decay of San Simeon-triggered seismicity. Coulomb stress unloading from the Parkfield earthquake appears to have altered the aftershock decay rate of the southern cluster of San Simeon after-shocks, which is deficient compared to the expected number of aftershocks from the Omori decay parameters based on the pre-Parkfield aftershocks. Dynamic stress changes cannot explain the deficiency of aftershocks, providing evidence that static stress changes affect earthquake occurrence. However, a burst of seismicity following the Parkfield earthquake at Ragged Point, where the static stress was decreased, provides evidence for dynamic stress triggering. It therefore appears that both Coulomb static stress changes and dynamic stress changes affect the seismicity rate.
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
Earthquake stress drops and inferred fault strength on the Hayward Fault, east San Francisco Bay, California
We study variations in earthquake stress drop with respect to depth, faulting regime, creeping versus locked fault behavior, and wall-rock geology. We use the P-wave displacement spectra from borehole seismic recordings of M 1.0-4.2 earthquakes in the east San Francisco Bay to estimate stress drop using a stack-and-invert empirical Green's function method. The median stress drop is 8.7 MPa, and most stress drops are in the range between 0.4 and 130 MPa. An apparent correlation between stress drop and magnitude is entirely an artifact of the limited frequency band of 4-55 Hz. There is a trend of increasing stress drop with depth, with a median stress drop of ~5 MPa for 1-7 km depth, ~10 MPa for 7-13 km depth, and ~50 MPa deeper than 13 km. We use S=P amplitude ratios measured from the borehole records to better constrain the first-motion focal mechanisms. High stress drops are observed for a deep cluster of thrust-faulting earthquakes. The correlation of stress drops with depth and faulting regime implies that stress drop is related to the applied shear stress. We compare the spatial distribution of stress drops on the Hayward fault to a model of creeping versus locked behavior of the fault and find that high stress drops are concentrated around the major locked patch near Oakland. This also suggests a connection between stress drop and applied shear stress, as the locked patch may experience higher applied shear stress as a result of the difference in cumulative slip or the presence of higher-strength material. The stress drops do not directly correlate with the strength of the proposed wall-rock geology at depth, suggesting that the relationship between fault strength and the strength of the wall rock is complex.
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
Improved tests reveal that the accelarating moment release hypothesis is statistically insignificant
We test the hypothesis that accelerating moment release (AMR) is a precursor to large earthquakes, using data from California, Nevada, and Sumatra. Spurious cases of AMR can arise from data fitting because the time period, area, and sometimes magnitude range analyzed before each main shock are often optimized to produce the strongest AMR signal. Optimizing the search criteria can identify apparent AMR even if no robust signal exists. For both 1950-2006 California-Nevada M ??? 6.5 earthquakes and the 2004 M9.3 Sumatra earthquake, we can find two contradictory patterns in the pre-main shock earthquakes by data fitting: AMR and decelerating moment release. We compare the apparent AMR found in the real data to the apparent AMR found in four types of synthetic catalogs with no inherent AMR. When spatiotemporal clustering is included in the simulations, similar AMR signals are found by data fitting in both the real and synthetic data sets even though the synthetic data sets contain no real AMR. These tests demonstrate that apparent AMR may arise from a combination of data fitting and normal foreshock and aftershock activity. In principle, data-fitting artifacts could be avoided if the free parameters were determined from scaling relationships between the duration and spatial extent of the AMR pattern and the magnitude of the earthquake that follows it. However, we demonstrate that previously proposed scaling relationships are unstable, statistical artifacts caused by the use of a minimum magnitude for the earthquake catalog that scales with the main shock magnitude. Some recent AMR studies have used spatial regions based on hypothetical stress loading patterns, rather than circles, to select the data. We show that previous tests were biased and that unbiased tests do not find this change to the method to be an improvement. The use of declustered catalogs has also been proposed to eliminate the effect of clustering but we demonstrate that this does not increase the statistical significance of AMR. Given the ease with which data fitting can find desired patterns in seismicity, future studies of AMR-like observations must include complete tests against synthetic catalogs that include spatiotemporal clustering.
Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
Seismic velocity structure and seismotectonics of the eastern San Francisco Bay region, California
The Hayward Fault System is considered the most likely fault system in the San Francisco Bay Area, California, to produce a major earthquake in the next 30 years. To better understand this fault system, we use microseismicity to study its structure and kinematics. We present a new 3D seismic-velocity model for the eastern San Francisco Bay region, using microseismicity and controlled sources, which reveals a ∼10% velocity contrast across the Hayward fault in the upper 10 km, with higher velocity in the Franciscan Complex to the west relative to the Great Valley Sequence to the east. This contrast is imaged more sharply in our localized model than in previous regional-scale models. Thick Cenozoic sedimentary basins, such as the Livermore basin, which may experience particularly strong shaking during an earthquake, are imaged in the model.
California↗
Damped regional-scale stress inversions: Methodology and examples for southern California and the Coalinga aftershock sequence
We present a new focal mechanism stress inversion technique to produce regional-scale models of stress orientation containing the minimum complexity necessary to fit the data. Current practice is to divide a region into small subareas and to independently fit a stress tensor to the focal mechanisms of each subarea. This procedure may lead to apparent spatial variability that is actually an artifact of overfitting noisy data or nonuniquely fitting data that does not completely constrain the stress tensor. To remove these artifacts while retaining any stress variations that are strongly required by the data, we devise a damped inversion method to simultaneously invert for stress in all subareas while minimizing the difference in stress between adjacent subareas. This method is conceptually similar to other geophysical inverse techniques that incorporate damping, such as seismic tomography. In checkerboard tests, the damped inversion removes the stress rotation artifacts exhibited by an undamped inversion, while resolving sharper true stress rotations than a simple smoothed model or a moving-window inversion. We show an example of a spatially damped stress field for southern California. The methodology can also be used to study temporal stress changes, and an example for the Coalinga, California, aftershock sequence is shown. We recommend use of the damped inversion technique for any study examining spatial or temporal variations in the stress field.
Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
Fault parameter constraints using relocated earthquakes: A validation of first-motion focal-mechanism data
We estimate the strike and dip of three California fault segments (Calaveras, Sargent, and a portion of the San Andreas near San Jaun Bautistia) based on principle component analysis of accurately located microearthquakes. We compare these fault orientations with two different first-motion focal mechanism catalogs: the Northern California Earthquake Data Center ( NCEDC ) catalog, calculated using the FPFIT algorithm (Reasenberg and Oppenheimer, 1985), and a catalog created using the HASH algorithm that tests mechanism stability relative to seismic velocity model variations and earthquake location (Hardebeck and Shearer, 2002). We assume any disagreement (misfit >30° in strike, dip, or rake) indicates inaccurate focal mechanisms in the catalogs. With this assumption, we can quantify the parameters that identify the most optimally constrained focal mechanisms. For the NCEDC/FPFIT catalogs, we find that the best quantitative discriminator of quality focal mechanisms is the station distribution ratio ( STDR ) parameter, an indicator of how the stations are distributed about the focal sphere. Requiring STDR > 0.65 increases the acceptable mechanisms from 34%–37% to 63%–68%. This suggests stations should be uniformly distributed surrounding, rather than aligning, known fault traces. For the HASH catalogs, the fault plane uncertainty ( FPU ) parameter is the best discriminator, increasing the percent of acceptable mechanisms from 63%–78% to 81%–83% when FPU ≤ 35°. The overall higher percentage of acceptable mechanisms and the usefulness of the formal uncertainty in identifying quality mechanisms validate the HASH approach of testing for mechanism stability.
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
Homogeneity of small-scale earthquake faulting, stress, and fault strength
Small-scale faulting at seismogenic depths in the crust appears to be more homogeneous than previously thought. I study three new high-quality focal-mechanism datasets of small (M < ??? 3) earthquakes in southern California, the east San Francisco Bay, and the aftershock sequence of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. I quantify the degree of mechanism variability on a range of length scales by comparing the hypocentral disctance between every pair of events and the angular difference between their focal mechanisms. Closely spaced earthquakes (interhypocentral distance <???2 km) tend to have very similar focal mechanisms, often identical to within the 1-sigma uncertainty of ???25??. This observed similarity implies that in small volumes of crust, while faults of many orientations may or may not be present, only similarly oriented fault planes produce earthquakes contemporaneously. On these short length scales, the crustal stress orientation and fault strength (coefficient of friction) are inferred to be homogeneous as well, to produce such similar earthquakes. Over larger length scales (???2-50 km), focal mechanisms become more diverse with increasing interhypocentral distance (differing on average by 40-70??). Mechanism variability on ???2- to 50 km length scales can be explained by ralatively small variations (???30%) in stress or fault strength. It is possible that most of this small apparent heterogeneity in stress of strength comes from measurement error in the focal mechanisms, as negligibble variation in stress or fault strength (<10%) is needed if each earthquake is assigned the optimally oriented focal mechanism within the 1-sigma confidence region. This local homogeneity in stress orientation and fault strength is encouraging, implying it may be possible to measure these parameters with enough precision to be useful in studying and modeling large earthquakes.
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
Constraints on fault slip rates of the southern California plate boundary from GPS velocity and stress inversions
We use Global Positioning System (GPS) velocities and stress orientations inferred from seismicity to invert for the distribution of slip on faults in the southern California plate-boundary region. Of particular interest is how long-term slip rates are partitioned between the Indio segment of the San Andreas fault (SAF), the San Jacinto fault (SJF) and the San Bernardino segment of the SAE We use two new sets of constraints to address this problem. The first is geodetic velocities from the Southern California Earthquake Center's (SCEC) Crustal Motion Map (version 3 by Shen et al.), which includes significantly more data than previous models. The second is a regional model of stress-field orientations at seismogenic depths, as determined from earthquake focal mechanisms. While GPS data have been used in similar studies before, this is the first application of stress-field observations to this problem. We construct a simplified model of the southern California fault system, and estimate the interseismic surface velocities using a backslip approach with purely elastic strain accumulation, following Meade et al. In addition, we model the stress orientations at seismogenic depths, assuming that crustal stress results from the loading of active faults. The geodetically derived stressing rates are found to be aligned with the stress orientations from seismicity. We therefore proceed to invert simultaneously GPS and stress observations for slip rates of the faults in our network. We find that the regional patterns of crustal deformation as imaged by both data sets can be explained by our model, and that joint inversions lead to better constrained slip rates. In our preferred model, the SJF accommodates ???15 mm yr-1 and the Indio segment of the SAF ???23 mm yr-1 of right-lateral motion, accompanied by a low slip rate on the San Bernardino segment of the SAF 'Anomalous' fault segments such as around the 1992 Mw = 7.3 Landers surface rupture can be detected. There, observed stresses deviate strongly from the long-term loading as predicted by our simple model. Evaluation of model misfits together with information from palaeoseismology may provide further insights into the time dependence of strain accumulation along the San Andreas system. ?? 2004 RAS.
Geophysical Journal International↗