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J.H. Schuenemeyer

Publications and source records attributed to J.H. Schuenemeyer.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2011

Oil and gas resource potential north of the Arctic Circle

The US Geological Survey recently assessed the potential for undiscovered conventional petroleum in the Arctic. Using a new map compilation of sedimentary elements, the area north of the Arctic Circle was subdivided into 70 assessment units, 48 of which were quantitatively assessed. The Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal (CARA) was a geologically based, probabilistic study that relied mainly on burial history analysis and analogue modelling to estimate sizes and numbers of undiscovered oil and gas accumulations. The results of the CARA suggest the Arctic is gas-prone with an estimated 770–2990 trillion cubic feet of undiscovered conventional natural gas, most of which is in Russian territory. On an energy-equivalent basis, the quantity of natural gas is more than three times the quantity of oil and the largest undiscovered gas field is expected to be about 10 times the size of the largest undiscovered oil field. In addition to gas, the gas accumulations may contain an estimated 39 billion barrels of liquids. The South Kara Sea is the most prospective gas assessment unit, but giant gas fields containing more than 6 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas are possible at a 50% chance in 10 assessment units. Sixty per cent of the estimated undiscovered oil resource is in just six assessment units, of which the Alaska Platform, with 31% of the resource, is the most prospective. Overall, the Arctic is estimated to contain between 44 and 157 billion barrels of recoverable oil. Billion barrel oil fields are possible at a 50% chance in seven assessment units. Undiscovered oil resources could be significant to the Arctic nations, but are probably not sufficient to shift the world oil balance away from the Middle East.

Geological Society Memoir↗
USGS2010

2010 updated assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources of the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPRA)

Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated mean volumes of 896 million barrels of oil (MMBO) and about 53 trillion cubic feet (TCFG) of nonassociated natural gas in conventional, undiscovered accumulations within the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska and adjacent State waters. The estimated volume of undiscovered oil is significantly lower than estimates released in 2002, owing primarily to recent exploration drilling that revealed an abrupt transition from oil to gas and reduced reservoir quality in the Alpine sandstone 15-20 miles west of the giant Alpine oil field. The National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPRA) has been the focus of oil exploration during the past decade, stimulated by the mid-1990s discovery of the adjacent Alpine field-the largest onshore oil discovery in the United States during the past 25 years. Recent activities in NPRA, including extensive 3-D seismic surveys, six Federal lease sales totaling more than $250 million in bonus bids, and completion of more than 30 exploration wells on Federal and Native lands, indicate in key formations more gas than oil and poorer reservoir quality than anticipated. In the absence of a gas pipeline from northern Alaska, exploration has waned and several petroleum companies have relinquished assets in the NPRA. This fact sheet updates U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimates of undiscovered oil and gas in NPRA, based on publicly released information from exploration wells completed during the past decade and on the results of research that documents significant Cenozoic uplift and erosion in NPRA. The results included in this fact sheet-released in October 2010-supersede those of a previous assessment completed by the USGS in 2002.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2005

Initial yield to depth relation for water wells drilled into crystalline bedrock - Pinardville quadrangle, New Hampshire

A model is proposed to explain the statistical relations between the mean initial water well yields from eight time increments from 1984 to 1998 for wells drilled into the crystalline bedrock aquifer system in the Pinardville area of southern New Hampshire and the type of bedrock, mean well depth, and mean well elevation. Statistical analyses show that the mean total yield of drilling increments is positively correlated with mean total well depth and mean well elevation. In addition, the mean total well yield varies with rock type from a minimum of 46.9 L/min (12.4 gpm) in the Damon Pond granite to a maximum of 74.5 L/min (19.7 gpm) in the Permian pegmatite and granite unit. Across the eight drilling increments that comprise 211 wells each, the percentages of very low-yield wells (1.9 L/min [0.5 gpm] or less) and high-yield wells (151.4 L/min [40 gpm] or more) increased, and those of intermediate-yield wells decreased. As housing development progressed during the 1984 to 1998 interval, the mean depth of the wells and their elevations increased, and the mix of percentages of the bedrock types drilled changed markedly. The proposed model uses a feed-forward mechanism to explain the interaction between the increasing mean elevation, mean well depth, and percentages of very low-yielding wells and the mean well yield. The increasing percentages of very low-yielding wells through time and the economics of the housing market may control the system that forces the mean well depths, percentages of high-yield wells, and mean well yields to increase. The reason for the increasing percentages of very low-yield wells is uncertain, but the explanation is believed to involve the complex structural geology and tectonic history of the Pinardville quadrangle.

New Hampshire↗
USGS2001

Characteristics of water-well yields in part of the Blue Ridge Geologic Province in Loudoun County, Virginia

Loudoun County, Virginia, which is located about 50 km to the west of Washington, DC, was the site of intensive suburban development during the 1980s and 1990s. In the western half of the county, the source of water for domestic use has been from wells drilled into the fractured crystalline bedrock of the Blue Ridge Geologic Province. A comprehensive digital database that contains information on initial yield, location, depth, elevation, and other data for 3651 wells drilled in this 825.5-km 2 area was combined with a digital geologic map to form the basis for a study of geologic and temporal controls on water-well yields. Statistical modeling procedures were used to determine that mean yields for the wells were significantly different as a function of structural setting, genetic rock type, and geologic map unit. The Bonferroni procedure then was used to determine which paired comparisons contributed to these significant differences. The data were divided into 15 temporal drilling increments to determine if the time-dependent trends that exist for the Loudoun County data are similar to those discovered in a previous study of water-well yields in the Pinardville 7.5-min quadrangle, New Hampshire. In both regions, trends, which include increasing proportions of very low yield wells and increasing well depths through time, and the counterintuitive result of increasing mean well yields through time, were similar. In addition, a yield-to-depth curve similar tothat discovered in the Pinardville quadrangle was recognized in this study. Thus, the temporal model with a feed-forward-loop mechanism to explain the temporal trends in well characteristics proposed for the New Hampshire study appears to apply to western Loudoun County.

Virginia↗
USGS2000

Uncertainty estimation for resource assessment-an application to coal

The U.S. Geological Survey is conducting a national assessment of coal resources. As part of that assessment, a geostatistical procedure has been developed to estimate the uncertainty of coal resources for the historical categories of geological assurance: measured, indicated, inferred, and hypothetical coal. Data consist of spatially clustered coal thickness measurements from coal beds and/or zones that cover, in some cases, several thousand square kilometers. Our procedure involved trend removal, an examination of spatial correlation, computation of a sample semivariogram, and fitting a semivariogram model. This model provided standard deviations for the uncertainty estimates. The number of sample points (drill holes) in each historical category also was estimated. Measurement error in the thickness of the coal bed/zone was obtained from the fitted model or supplied exogenously. From this information approximate estimates of uncertainty on the historical categories were computed. We illustrate the methodology using drill hole data from the Harmon coal bed located in southwestern North Dakota. The methodology will be applied to approximately 50 coal data sets.

Mathematical Geology↗
USGS2000

Characteristics of water-well yields in the Blue Ridge of Loudoun County, Virginia

Mean yields and the numbers of wells drilled are presented for 35 rock types containing 4,115 wells in the Blue Ridge of Loudoun County, Virginia. Analysis of variance of the well yields shows that Harper's Formation phyllite and Catoctin Formation metabasalt have yields significantly different from those of other rock types. Preliminary variography has identified an anisotropy that roughly parallels the general compressional trend of the Blue Ridge.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1994

The space-time structure of oil and gas field growth in a complex depositional system

Shortly after the discovery of an oil and gas field, an initial estimate is usually made of the ultimate recovery of the field. With the passage of time, this initial estimate is almost always revised upward. The phenomenon of the growth of the expected ultimate recovery of a field, which is known as "field growth," is important to resource assessment analysts for several reasons. First, field growth is the source of a large part of future additions to the inventory of proved reserves of crude oil and natural gas in most petroliferous areas of the world. Second, field growth introduces a large negative bias in the forecast of the future rates of discovery of oil and gas fields made by discovery process models. In this study, the growth in estimated ultimate recovery of oil and gas in fields made up of sandstone reservoirs formed in a complex depositional environment (Frio strand plain exploration play) is examined. The results presented here show how the growth of oil and gas fields is tied directly to the architectural element of the shoreline processes and tectonics that caused the deposition of the individual sand bodies hosting the producible hydrocarbon. ?? 1994 Oxford University Press.

Nonrenewable Resources↗
USGS1992

A petroleum discovery-rate forecast revisited-The problem of field growth

A forecast of the future rates of discovery of crude oil and natural gas for the 123,027-km2 Miocene/Pliocene trend in the Gulf of Mexico was made in 1980. This forecast was evaluated in 1988 by comparing two sets of data: (1) the actual versus the forecasted number of fields discovered, and (2) the actual versus the forecasted volumes of crude oil and natural gas discovered with the drilling of 1,820 wildcat wells along the trend between January 1, 1977, and December 31, 1985. The forecast specified that this level of drilling would result in the discovery of 217 fields containing 1.78 billion barrels of oil equivalent; however, 238 fields containing 3.57 billion barrels of oil equivalent were actually discovered. This underestimation is attributed to biases introduced by field growth and, to a lesser degree, the artificially low, pre-1970's price of natural gas that prevented many smaller gas fields from being brought into production at the time of their discovery; most of these fields contained less than 50 billion cubic feet of producible natural gas. ?? 1992 Oxford University Press.

Nonrenewable Resources↗
USGS1988

Observed oil and gas field size distributions: A consequence of the discovery process and prices of oil and gas

If observed oil and gas field size distributions are obtained by random samplings, the fitted distributions should approximate that of the parent population of oil and gas fields. However, empirical evidence strongly suggests that larger fields tend to be discovered earlier in the discovery process than they would be by random sampling. Economic factors also can limit the number of small fields that are developed and reported. This paper examines observed size distributions in state and federal waters of offshore Texas. Results of the analysis demonstrate how the shape of the observable size distributions change with significant hydrocarbon price changes. Comparison of state and federal observed size distributions in the offshore area shows how production cost differences also affect the shape of the observed size distribution. Methods for modifying the discovery rate estimation procedures when economic factors significantly affect the discovery sequence are presented. A primary conclusion of the analysis is that, because hydrocarbon price changes can significantly affect the observed discovery size distribution, one should not be confident about inferring the form and specific parameters of the parent field size distribution from the observed distributions. ?? 1988 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Mathematical Geology↗
USGS1985

The copper-nickel concentration log: A tool for stratigraphic interpretation within the ultramafic and basal zones of the stillwater complex, Montana

An analogue to the electric well log was devised for copper-nickel concentration drill-hole data from the Basal and lower part of the Ultramafic zones of the Stillwater Complex using automated data processing. The copper-nickel concentration logs graphically represent intensity (concentration) values that reflect the distribution of the elements in sulfide and silicate minerals. Four major patterns are recognized by their characteristic variations in copper and nickel intensity: (1) relatively flat, low-level copper-intensity signatures associated with arcuate nickel-intensity patterns that correlate with rocks in the Peridotite member of the Ultramafic zone; (2) arcuate or bulb-like patterns of copper and nickel intensity that correlate closely with the Basal bronzite cumulate member of the Basal zone; (3) complex patterns consisting of intervals of low-intensity copper and moderate-intensity nickel, spikes of high nickel and copper intensity, and high copper intensity associated with low nickel intensity that correlate respectively with cordierite-pyroxene hornfels, massive sulfide, norites and mineralized diabase dikes in the Basal norite member; and (4) large intervals of extremely low copper and nickel intensity that correlate with quartz-orthopyroxene hornfels. The recognition and interpretation of these patterns allow two- and three-dimensional stratigraphic and lithologic reconstructions to be done by means of concentration-log correlations instead of variable quality lithologic logging.

Journal of Geochemical Exploration↗
USGS1984

Forecasting rates of hydrocarbon discoveries in a changing economic environment

A method is presented for the estimation of undiscovered oil and gas resources in partially explored areas where economic truncation has caused some discoveries to go unreported; therefore distorting the relationship between the observed discovery size distribution and the parent or ultimate field size distribution. The method is applied to the UK's northern and central North Sea provinces. A discovery process model is developed to estimate the number and size distribution of undiscovered fields in this area as of 1983. The model is also used to forecast the rate at which fields will be discovered in the future. The appraisal and forecasts pertain to fields in size classes as small as 24 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE). Estimated undiscovered hydrocarbon resources of 11.79 billion BOE are expected to be contained in 170 remaining fields. Over the first 500 wildcat wells after 1 January 1983, the discovery rate in this areas is expected to decline by 60% from 15 million BOE per wildcat well to six million BOE per wildcat well. ?? 1984.

Marine and Petroleum Geology↗
USGS1983

A procedure to estimate the parent population of the size of oil and gas fields as revealed by a study of economic truncation

An estimation technique has been derived to predict the number of small fields in a geologic play or basin. Historically, many small oil and gas fields went unreported because they were not economical. This led to an underestimation of the number of undiscovered small fields. A study of the distributions of reported oil and gas fields in well-explored areas suggests that the large fields when grouped into log base 2 size classes are geometrically distributed. Further, the number of small fields reported is a function of the cost of exploration and development. Thus, the population field-size distribution is conjectured to be log geometric in form. ?? 1983 Plenum Publishing Corporation.

Journal of the International Association for Mathe↗
USGS1980

A three-dimensional model to predict future oil discoveries in spatially connected multiple plays

A discovery-process model that had been devised previously to estimate the size distribution of oil and gas fields remaining to be discovered in a single producing horizon was adapted to a basin containing spatially connected multiple plays and producing horizons. This model used the concept of the area of influence of wells to estimate search effort. Other variables estimated from the historical drilling and discovery data are the effective basin size and the exploration-drilling efficiency. Data from the Midland Basin are used to illustrate how the model works. ?? 1980 Plenum Publishing Corporation.

Journal of the International Association for Mathe↗
USGS1980

Computational methods for a three-dimensional model of the petroleum-discovery process

A discovery-process model devised by Drew, Schuenemeyer, and Root can be used to predict the amount of petroleum to be discovered in a basin from some future level of exploratory effort: the predictions are based on historical drilling and discovery data. Because marginal costs of discovery and production are a function of field size, the model can be used to make estimates of future discoveries within deposit size classes. The modeling approach is a geometric one in which the area searched is a function of the size and shape of the targets being sought. A high correlation is assumed between the surface-projection area of the fields and the volume of petroleum. To predict how much oil remains to be found, the area searched must be computed, and the basin size and discovery efficiency must be estimated. The basin is assumed to be explored randomly rather than by pattern drilling. The model may be used to compute independent estimates of future oil at different depth intervals for a play involving multiple producing horizons. We have written FORTRAN computer programs that are used with Drew, Schuenemeyer, and Root's model to merge the discovery and drilling information and perform the necessary computations to estimate undiscovered petroleum. These program may be modified easily for the estimation of remaining quantities of commodities other than petroleum. ?? 1980.

Computers & Geosciences↗