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J. J. Vaccaro

Publications and source records attributed to J. J. Vaccaro.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Groundwater availability of the Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System, Washington, Oregon, and Idaho

The Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System (CPRAS) covers about 44,000 square miles of southeastern Washington, northeastern Oregon, and western Idaho. The area supports a $6-billion per year agricultural industry, leading the Nation in production of apples, hops, and eight other commodities. Groundwater pumpage and surface-water diversions supply water to croplands that account for about 5 percent of the Nation’s irrigated lands. Groundwater also is the primary source of drinking water for the more than 1.3 million people in the study area. Increasing competitive demands for water for municipal, fisheries/ecosystems, agricultural, domestic, hydropower, and recreational uses must be met by additional groundwater withdrawals and (or) by changes in the way water resources are allocated and used throughout the hydrologic system. As of 2014, most surface-water resources in the study area were either over allocated or fully appropriated, especially during the dry summer season. In response to continued competition for water, numerous water-management activities and concerns have gained prominence: water conservation, conjunctive use, artificial recharge, hydrologic implications of land-use change, pumpage effects on streamflow, and effects of climate variability and change. An integrated understanding of the hydrologic system is important in order to implement effective water-resource management strategies that address these concerns. To provide information to stakeholders involved in water-management activities, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Groundwater Resources Program assessed the groundwater availability as part of a national study of regional systems (U.S. Geological Survey, 2008). The CPRAS assessment includes: The present status of groundwater resources, How these resources have changed over time, and Development and application of tools to estimate system responses to stresses from future uses and climate variability and change. This effort builds on previous investigations, especially the USGS Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer-System Analysis study (CP-RASA). A major product of this new assessment is a numerical groundwater-flow model of the system. The model was used to estimate water-budget components of the hydrogeologic units composing the groundwater system, and to evaluate groundwater availability under existing land- and water-use conditions and a possible future climate scenario representing an increase in pumpage demand due to a warming climate. Information from this study also allowed for analysis of: The CPRAS for predevelopment times (pre-1920), Variations from 1920 through 2007, Conditions during 1985–2007 (referred to as “existing conditions”), and Changes in the system from predevelopment times. The model also is a useful tool for investigating water supply, water demand, management strategies, groundwater-surface water exchanges, and potential effects of changing climate on the hydrologic system.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington

River-aquifer exchanges in the Yakima River basin, Washington

Five categories of data are analyzed to enhance understanding of river-aquifer exchanges-the processes by which water moves between stream channels and the adjacent groundwater system-in the Yakima River basin. The five datasets include (1) results of chemical analyses of water for tritium (3H, a radioactive isotope of hydrogen) and the ratios of the stable isotopes of hydrogen (2H/1H) and oxygen (18O/16O), (2) series of stream discharge measurements within specified reaches (seepage investigations or 'runs'), (3) vertical hydraulic gradients (between stream stage and hydraulic heads the underlying aquifer) measured using mini-piezometers, (4) groundwater levels and water temperature in shallow wells near stream channels, and (5) thermal profiles (continuous records of water temperature along river reaches). Exchanges are described in terms of streamflow, vertical hydraulic gradients, groundwater temperature and levels, and streamflow temperature, and where appropriate, the exchanges are discussed in terms of their relevance to and influence on salmonid habitat. The isotope data shows that the ultimate source of surface and groundwater is meteoric water derived from atmospheric precipitation. Water from deep wells has a different isotopic composition than either shallow groundwater or surface water, indicating that the deep groundwater system contributes, at most, only a small component of the surface-water discharge. The isotope data confirms that river-aquifer exchanges involve primarily modern streamflow and modern, shallow groundwater. Net exchanges of water for 46 stream sections investigated with seepage runs ranged from nearly zero to 1,071 ft3/s for 28 gaining sections, and -3 to -242 ft3/s for 18 losing sections. The magnitude of the upper 50 percent of the net gains is an order of magnitude larger than those for net losses. The sections have a normalized net exchange (as absolute value) that fully ranged from near 0 to 65.6 (ft3/s)/mi. Gaining-section values ranged from about 0.1 to 65.6 (ft3/s)/mi, and losing section values ranged from about -0.1 to -35.4 (ft3/s)/mi. Gains are much more vigorous than the losses with 55 percent being larger than 3.0 (ft3/s)/ mi, whereas, only 6 percent of the negative net exchanges were larger than 3.0 (ft3/s)/mi. Gains and losses for 167 measured reaches within the 46 sections ranged from about 70 to -75 (ft3/s)/mi, and ranged more than 5 orders of magnitude. The median values for the gains and losses were 5.1 and -4.4 (ft3/s)/mi, respectively. The magnitude of the gains was larger than the losses; more than 40 percent of the gains were greater than 10 (ft3/s)/mi, and only about 25 percent of the losses were greater than 10 (ft3/s)/mi. Reaches with large gains are identified and these reaches represent potentially important areas for various life stages of salmonids and possibly for preservation or restoration of that habitat. Ninety-nine measurements of vertical hydraulic gradients (VHGs) were made using mini-piezometers. The median for the measurements was -0.35 ft/ft (negative values indicate downward flow), and in terms of absolute values, the median was 0.05 ft/ft. The VHGs tended to be small. Seventy VHG values were negative (indicating streamflow losses), and 29 were positive (indicating streamflow gains). VHGs vary more than 4 orders of magnitude, and in terms of magnitudes, 65 percent were less than 0.1 ft/ft. The negative VHG values are not only more prevalent but are larger than the positive values. The magnitudes of almost 50 percent of the negative VHGs are greater than 0.05 ft/ft and only 33 percent of the positive VHGs are greater than 0.05 ft/ft. The percentile distribution of the VHG data, which is similar to the shape of the seepage data distribution, shows that beyond the 80th percentile, the positive values become much larger, indicating that the largest VHGs have a different controlling mechanism. The VHGs were formulated in terms of fluxes per unit are

Scientific Investigations Report

Hydrogeologic framework and hydrologic budget components of the Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System, Washington, Oregon, and Idaho

The Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System (CPRAS) covers an area of about 44,000 square miles in a structural and topographic basin within the drainage of the Columbia River in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. The primary aquifers are basalts of the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG) and overlying sediment. Eighty percent of the groundwater use in the study area is for irrigation, in support of a $6 billion per year agricultural economy. Water-resources issues in the Columbia Plateau include competing agricultural, domestic, and environmental demands. Groundwater levels were measured in 470 wells in 1984 and 2009; water levels declined in 83 percent of the wells, and declines greater than 25 feet were measured in 29 percent of the wells. Conceptually, the system is a series of productive basalt aquifers consisting of permeable interflow zones separated by less permeable flow interiors; in places, sedimentary aquifers overly the basalts. The aquifer system of the CPRAS includes seven hydrogeologic units-the overburden aquifer, three aquifer units in the permeable basalt rock, two confining units, and a basement confining unit. The overburden aquifer includes alluvial and colluvial valley-fill deposits; the three basalt units are the Saddle Mountains, Wanapum, and Grande Ronde Basalts and their intercalated sediments. The confining units are equivalent to the Saddle Mountains-Wanapum and Wanapum-Grande Ronde interbeds, referred to in this study as the Mabton and Vantage Interbeds, respectively. The basement confining unit, referred to as Older Bedrock, consists of pre-CRBG rocks that generally have much lower permeabilities than the basalts and are considered the base of the regional flow system. Based on specific-capacity data, median horizontal hydraulic conductivity (Kh) values for the overburden, basalt units, and bedrock are 161, 70, and 6 feet per day, respectively. Analysis of oxygen isotopes in water and carbon isotopes in dissolved inorganic carbon from groundwater samples indicates that groundwater in the CPRAS ranges in age from modern (<50 years) to Pleistocene (>10,000 years). The oldest groundwater resides in deep, downgradient locations indicating that groundwater movement and replenishment in parts of this regional aquifer system have operated on long timescales under past natural conditions, which is consistent with the length and depth of long flow paths in the system. The mean annual recharge from infiltration of precipitation for the 23-year period 1985-2007 was estimated to be 4.6 inches per year (14,980 cubic feet per second) using a polynomial regression equation based on annual precipitation and the results of recharge modeling done in the 1980s. A regional-scale hydrologic budget was developed using a monthly SOil WATer (SOWAT) Balance model to estimate irrigation-water demand, groundwater flux (recharge or discharge), direct runoff, and soil moisture within irrigated areas. Mean monthly irrigation throughout the study area peaks in July at 1.6 million acre-feet (MAF), of which 0.45 and 1.15 MAF are from groundwater and surface-water sources, respectively. Annual irrigation water use in the study area averaged 5.3 MAF during the period 1985-2007, with 1.4 MAF (or 26 percent) supplied from groundwater and 3.9 MAF supplied from surface water. Mean annual recharge from irrigation return flow in the study area was 4.2 MAF (1985-2007) with 2.1 MAF (50 percent) occurring within the predominately surface-water irrigated regions of the study area. Annual groundwater-use estimates were made for public supply, self-supplied domestic, industrial, and other uses for the period 1984 through 2009. Public supply groundwater use within the study area increased from 200,600 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) in 1984 to 269,100 acre-ft/yr in 2009. Domestic self-supplied groundwater use increased from 54,580 acre-ft/yr in 1984 to 71,160 acre-ft/yr in 2009. Industrial groundwater use decreased from 53,390 acre-ft/yr in 1984 t

Scientific Investigations Report

Numerical simulation of groundwater flow for the Yakima River basin aquifer system, Washington

A regional, three-dimensional, transient numerical model of groundwater flow was constructed for the Yakima River basin aquifer system to better understand the groundwater-flow system and its relation to surface-water resources. The model described in this report can be used as a tool by water-management agencies and other stakeholders to quantitatively evaluate proposed alternative management strategies that consider the interrelation between groundwater availability and surface-water resources. The model was constructed using the U.S. Geological Survey finite-difference model MODFLOW. The model uses 1,000-foot grid cells that subdivide the model domain by 600 rows and 600 columns. Forty-eight hydrogeologic units in the model are included in 24 model layers. The Yakima River, all major tributaries, and major agricultural drains are included in the model as either drain cells or streamflow-routing cells. Recharge was estimated from previous work using physical process models. Groundwater pumpage specified in the model is derived from monthly pumpage values previously estimated from another component of this study. The pumpage values include estimates for wells with standby/reserve rights that are used in drought years. The model was calibrated to the transient conditions for October 1959 to September 2001. Calibration was completed by using traditional trial-and-error methods and automated parameter-estimation techniques. The model simulates the shape and slope of the water table that generally is consistent with mapped water levels. At well observation points, the average difference between simulated and measured hydraulic heads is -49 feet with a root-mean-square error divided by the total difference in water levels of 4 percent. Simulated river streamflow was compared to measured streamflow at seven sites. Annual differences between measured and simulated streamflow for the sites ranged from 1 to 9 percent. Calibrated model output includes a 42-year estimate of a monthly water budget for the aquifer system. Five applications (scenarios) of the model were completed to obtain a better understanding of the relation between pumpage and surface-water resources and groundwater levels. For the first three scenarios, the calibrated transient model was used to simulate conditions without: (1) pumpage from all hydrogeologic units, (2) pumpage from basalt hydrogeologic units, and (3) exempt-well pumpage. The simulation results indicated potential streamflow capture by the existing pumpage from 1960 through 2001. The quantity of streamflow capture generally was inversely related to the total quantity of pumpage eliminated in the model scenarios. For the fourth scenario, the model simulated 1994 through 2001 under existing conditions with additional pumpage estimated for pending groundwater applications. The differences between the calibrated model streamflow and this scenario indicated additional decreases in streamflow of 91 cubic feet per second in the model domain. Existing conditions representing 1994 through 2001 were projected through 2025 for the fifth scenario and indicated additional streamflow decreases of 38 cubic feet per second and groundwater-level declines.

Scientific Investigations Report

Summary of Seepage Investigations in the Yakima River Basin, Washington

Discharge data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey, Washington State Department of Ecology, and Yakama Nation for seepage investigations in the Yakima River basin are made available as downloadable Microsoft Excel files. These data were collected for more than a century at various times for several different studies and are now available in one location to facilitate future analysis by interested parties.

Data Series

Hydrogeologic Framework of the Yakima River Basin Aquifer System, Washington

The Yakima River basin aquifer system underlies about 6,200 square miles in south-central Washington. The aquifer system consists of basin-fill deposits occurring in six structural-sedimentary basins, the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG), and generally older bedrock. The basin-fill deposits were divided into 19 hydrogeologic units, the CRBG was divided into three units separated by two interbed units, and the bedrock was divided into four units (the Paleozoic, the Mesozoic, the Tertiary, and the Quaternary bedrock units). The thickness of the basin-fill units and the depth to the top of each unit and interbed of the CRBG were mapped. Only the surficial extent of the bedrock units was mapped due to insufficient data. Average mapped thickness of the different units ranged from 10 to 600 feet. Lateral hydraulic conductivity (Kh) of the units varies widely indicating the heterogeneity of the aquifer system. Average or effective Kh values of the water-producing zones of the basin-fill units are on the order of 1 to 800 ft/d and are about 1 to 10 ft/d for the CRBG units as a whole. Effective or average Kh values for the different rock types of the Paleozoic, Mesozoic, and Tertiary units appear to be about 0.0001 to 3 ft/d. The more permeable Quaternary bedrock unit may have Kh values that range from 1 to 7,000 ft/d. Vertical hydraulic conductivity (Kv) of the units is largely unknown. Kv values have been estimated to range from about 0.009 to 2 ft/d for the basin-fill units and Kv values for the clay-to-shale parts of the units may be as small as 10-10 to 10-7 ft/d. Reported Kv values for the CRBG units ranged from 4x10-7 to 4 ft/d. Variations in the concentrations of geochemical solutes and the concentrations and ratios of the isotopes of hydrogen, oxygen, and carbon in groundwater provided information on the hydrogeologic framework and groundwater movement. Stable isotope ratios of water (deuterium and oxygen-18) indicated dispersed sources of groundwater recharge to the CRBG and basin-fill units and that the source of surface and groundwater is derived from atmospheric precipitation. The concentrations of dissolved methane were larger than could be attributable to atmospheric sources in more than 80 percent of wells with measured methane concentrations. The concentrations of the stable isotope of carbon-13 of methane were indicative of a thermogenic source of methane. Most of the occurrences of methane were at locations several miles distant from mapped structural fault features, suggesting the upward vertical movement of thermogenic methane from the underlying bedrock may be more widespread than previously assumed or there may be a more general occurrence of unmapped (buried) fault structures. Carbon and tritium isotope data and the concentrations of dissolved constituents indicate a complex groundwater flow system with multiple contributing zones to groundwater wells and relative groundwater residence time on the order of a few tens to many thousands of years. Potential mean annual recharge for water years 1950-2003 was estimated to be about 15.6 in. or 7,149 ft3/s (5.2 million acre-ft) and includes affects of human activities such as irrigation of croplands. If there had been no human activities (predevelopment conditions) during that time period, estimated recharge would have been about 11.9 in. or 5,450 ft3/s (3.9 million acre-ft). Estimated mean annual recharge ranges from virtually zero in the dry parts of the lower basin to more than 100 in. in the humid uplands, where annual precipitation is more than 120 in. Groundwater in the different hydrogeologic units occurs under perched, unconfined, semiconfined, and confined conditions. Groundwater moves from topographic highs in the uplands to topographic low areas along the streams. The flow system in the basin-fill units is compartmentalized due to topography and geologic structure. The flow system also is compartmentalized for the CRBG units but not to as large

Scientific Investigations Report

Thermal Profiles for Selected River Reaches in the Yakima River Basin, Washington

Thermal profiles (data sets of longitudinal near-streambed temperature) that provide information on areas of potential ground-water discharge and salmonid habitat for 11 river reaches in the Yakima River basin, Washington, are available as Microsoft Excel? files that can be downloaded from the Internet. Two reaches were profiled twice resulting in 13 profiles. Data were collected for all but one thermal profile during 2001. Data consist of date and time (Pacific Daylight), near-streambed water temperature, and latitude and longitude collected concurrently using a temperature probe and a Global Positioning System. The data were collected from a watercraft towing the probe with an internal datalogger while moving downstream in a Lagrangian framework.

Data Series

Hydrographs showing ground-water level trends for selected wells in the Yakima River basin aquifer system, Washington

Selected ground-water level hydrographs for the Yakima River basin aquifer system, Washington, are presented in an interactive web-based map to illustrate the existence or lack of trends in ground-water levels and, thus, potential variations in ground-water availability in the area. Hydrographs are linked to points corresponding to the well location on an interactive map of the study area. Ground-water level data and well information from Federal, State, and local agencies were obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System. Selected data points were excluded from hydrographs to emphasize long-term term trends over short-term effects of human activity (such as pumping a well) and seasonal fluctuations in ground-water levels.

Washington

Extent and depth to top of basalt and interbed hydrogeologic units, Yakima River Basin aquifer system, Washington

The hydrogeologic framework was delineated for the ground-water flow system of the three basalt formations and two interbeds in the Yakima River Basin, Washington. The basalt units are nearly equivalent to the Saddle Mountains, Wanapum, and Grande Ronde. The two major interbed units between the basalt formations generally are referred to as the Mabton and Vantage. The basalt formations are a productive source of ground-water for the Yakima River Basin. The Grande Ronde unit comprises the largest area in the Yakima River Basin aquifer system. This unit encompasses an area of about 5,390 mi2 and ranges in altitude from 6,900 ft, where it is exposed at land surface, to a depth of 2,800 ft below land surface. The Wanapum unit encompasses an area of 3,450 mi2 and ranges in altitude from 5,680 ft, where exposed at land surface, to a depth of 2,050 ft below land surface. The Saddle Mountains unit, the least extensive, encompasses an area of 2,290 mi2 and ranges from 4,290 ft, where exposed at the surface, to a depth of 1,840 ft below land surface.

Washington

Estimates of Monthly Ground-Water Recharge to the Yakima River Basin Aquifer System, Washington, 1960-2001, for Current Land-Use and Land-Cover Conditions

Unique ID grid with a unique value per Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU) per basin in reference to the estimated ground-water recharge for current conditions in the Yakima Basin Aquifer System, (USGS report SIR 2007-5007). Total 78,144 unique values. This grid made it easy to provide estimates of monthly ground-water recharge for water years 1960-2001in an electronic format for water managers, planners, and hydrologists, that could be related back to a spatially referenced grid by the unique ID.

Open-File Report

A Deep Percolation Model for Estimating Ground-Water Recharge: Documentation of Modules for the Modular Modeling System of the U.S. Geological Survey

A daily water-budget model for estimating ground-water recharge, the Deep Percolation Model, was modularized for inclusion into the U.S. Geological Survey's Modular Modeling System. The model was modularized in order to facilitate estimation of ground-water recharge under a large range in climatic, landscape, and land-use and land-cover conditions. The model can be applied to areas as large as regions or as small as a field plot. An overview of the Modular Modeling System and the Deep Percolation Model is presented. Data requirements, parameters, and variables for the model are described. The modules that compose the Deep Percolation Model are documented.

Scientific Investigations Report

Estimates of ground-water recharge to the Yakima River Basin aquifer system, Washington, for predevelopment and current land-use and land-cover conditions

Two models were used to estimate ground-water recharge to the Yakima River Basin aquifer system, Washington for predevelopment (estimate of natural conditions) and current (a multi-year, 1995-2004, composite) land-use and land-cover conditions. The models were the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and the Deep Percolation Model (DPM) that are contained in the U.S. Geological Survey's Modular Modeling System. Daily values of recharge were estimated for water years 1950-98 using previously developed PRMS-watershed models for four mainly forested upland areas, and for water years 1950-2003 using DPM applied to 17 semiarid to arid areas in the basin. The mean annual recharge under predevelopment conditions was estimated to be about 11.9 in. or 5,450 ft 3 /s (about 3.9 million acre-ft) for the 6,207 mi 2 in the modeled area. In the modeled areas, recharge ranged from 0.08 in. (1.2 ft 3 /s) to 34 in. (2,825 ft 3 /s). About 97 percent of the recharge occurred in the 3,667 mi 2 area included in the upland-area models, but much of this quantity is not available to recharge the bedrock hydrogeologic units. Only about 1.0 in., or 187 ft 3 /s (about 0.14 million acre-ft), was estimated to occur in the 2,540 mi 2 area included in the semiarid to arid lowland modeled areas. The mean annual recharge to the aquifer system under current conditions was estimated to be about 15.6 in., or 7,149 ft 3 /s (about 5.2 million acre-ft). The increase in recharge is due to the application of irrigation water to croplands. The annual quantity of irrigation was more than five times the annual precipitation for some of the modeled areas. Mean annual actual evapotranspiration was estimated to have increased from predevelopment conditions by more than 1,700 ft 3 /s (about 1.2 million acre-ft) due to irrigation.

Washington

Hydrogeologic framework of sedimentary deposits in six structural basins, Yakima River basin, Washington

The hydrogeologic framework was delineated for the ground-water flow system of the sedimentary deposits in six structural basins in the Yakima River Basin, Washington. The six basins delineated, from north to south are: Roslyn, Kittitas, Selah, Yakima, Toppenish, and Benton. Extent and thicknesses of the hydrogeologic units and total basin sediment thickness were mapped for each basin. Interpretations were based on information from about 4,700 well records using geochemical, geophysical, geologist's or driller's logs, and from the surficial geology and previously constructed maps and well interpretations. The sedimentary deposits were thickest in the Kittitas Basin reaching a depth of greater than 2,000 ft, followed by successively thinner sedimentary deposits in the Selah basin with about 1,900 ft, Yakima Basin with about 1,800 ft, Toppenish Basin with about 1,200 ft, Benton basin with about 870 ft and Roslyn Basin with about 700 ft.

Scientific Investigations Report

A thermal profile method to identify potential ground-water discharge areas and preferred salmonid habitats for long river reaches

The thermal regime of riverine systems is a major control on aquatic ecosystems. Ground water discharge is an important abiotic driver of the aquatic ecosystem because it provides preferred thermal structure and habitat for different types of fish at different times in their life history. In large diverse river basins with an extensive riverine system, documenting the thermal regime and ground-water discharge is difficult and problematic. A method was developed to thermally profile long (5-25 kilometers) river reaches by towing in a Lagrangian framework one or two probes that measure temperature, depth, and conductivity. One probe is towed near the streambed and, if used, a second probe is towed near the surface. The probes continuously record data at 1-3-second intervals while a Global Positioning System logs spatial coordinates. The thermal profile provides valuable information about spatial and temporal variations in habitat, and, notably, indicates ground-water discharge areas. This method was developed and tested in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, in summer 2001 during low flows in an extreme drought year. The temperature profile comprehensively documents the longitudinal distribution of a river's temperature regime that cannot be captured by fixed station data. The example profile presented exhibits intra-reach diversity that reflects the many factors controlling the temperature of a parcel of water as it moves downstream. Thermal profiles provide a new perspective on riverine system temperature regimes that represent part of the aquatic habitat template for lotic community patterns.

Scientific Investigations Report

Documentation of Precipitation Runoff Modeling System modules for the Modular Modeling System modified for the Watershed and River Systems Management Program

A decision support system is being developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation as part of a long-term project, the Watershed and River Systems Management Program. The goal of the program is to apply the decision support system to U.S. Bureau of Reclamation projects in the western United States. An important component of the decision support system is the physical hydrology modeling, which consists of watershed models using the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System within the Modular Modeling System. To construct models and to enhance the tools for the application of the decision support system, selected Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System modules were modified or developed. These modules are documented in this report.

Open-File Report

Watershed models for decision support in the Yakima River basin, Washington

A Decision Support System (DSS) is being developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Bureau of Reclamation as part of a long-term project, the Watershed and River Systems Management Program. The goal of the program is to apply the DSS to U.S. Bureau of Reclamation projects in the western United States. The DSS was applied to the Reclamation's Yakima Project in the Yakima River Basin in eastern Washington. An important component of the DSS is the physical hydrology modeling. For the application to the Yakima River Basin, the physical hydrology component consisted of constructing four watershed models using the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System within the Modular Modeling System. The implementation of these models is described. To facilitate calibration of the models, mean annual streamflow also was estimated for ungaged subbasins. The models were calibrated for water years 1950-94 and tested for water years 1995-98. The integration of the models in the DSS for real-time water-management operations using an interface termed the Object User Interface is also described. The models were incorporated in the DSS for use in long-term to short-term planning and have been used in a real-time operational mode since water year 1999.

Open-File Report

Interdecadal changes in the hydrometeorological regime of the Pacific Northwest and in the regional-to-hemispheric climate regimes, and their linkages

Selected hydrometeorological (HM) data for the Pacific Northwest, and regional-to-hemispheric atmospheric-circulation data and sea-surface temperature (SST) data for the North Pacific, are examined for three successive interdecadal periods that are subsets of the instrumental record in order to estimate if their characteristics have changed. The HM data included monthly precipitation totals for 50 sites in western Washington and 29 climate divisions of the Pacific Northwest, and streamflow averages for 112 sites in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. The atmospheric data included the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), an index of the Pacific/North America (PNA) circulation pattern, measures of the westerly and northerly components of geostrophic flow, and a subset of the Northern Hemisphere 700-millibar geopotential height data; this subset of 162 grid points includes the area between 15 degrees and 75 degrees N, 110 degrees W and 130 degrees E. The SST data are for a 5-degree grid between 20 degrees N and 60 degrees N, 110 degrees W and 130 degrees E. The atmospheric and SST data were examined not only because the HM regime is linked to regional-to-hemispheric climate regimes, but also to estimate the extent of climate shifts displayed by these data. Three subsets of the record were identified as pre-1947 (PRE), 1947-76 (BASE), and post-1976 (POST) water years, based on an analysis of the HM data and previous studies. For each subset, means were calculated for the water year (October-September), the runoff season (March-August), the winter season (October-February), and a baseflow season (August-September). Differences in means and in ratios of the means between the BASE period and the PRE and POST periods were examined for changes. Winter-season mean precipitation during both the PRE and POST periods was smaller than the BASE period, indicating a spatially consistent and distinct change in the HM regime during winter during the PRE and POST periods. For the runoff season, mean precipitation at most sites, in comparison to the BASE period, was smaller during the PRE period and larger during POST period, indicating that different HM regimes occurred during the runoff season for the PRE and POST periods. Water-year mean precipitation was less for both the PRE and POST periods because of decreases in winter-season precipitation; however, the water-year values for the POST period were not as small as those of the PRE period because more precipitation was concentrated in the runoff season. During both the PRE and POST periods, the mean water-year discharge was less than the BASE period for all but 15 of the 112 sites. Fourteen of the 15 sites were in a well-defined region (southern Idaho and southeastern Oregon), and 13 of the 14 had larger means only during the POST period. Winter-season streamflow was less for all but 11 sites during both PRE and POST periods; the largest decreases in the mean, more than 30 percent, were for an area in central Oregon. Except for the sites that had larger mean water-year discharge, runoff-season means also were less than those during the BASE period. Changes in the SOI and PNA index from the BASE period were generally similar to and consistent with those of the majority of the hydrologic data; dissimilarities were in well-defined regions and are attributed to the evolutionary nature of the regime shifts. Negative values of the SOI for the POST period were more persistent than those that have occurred during both the PRE and BASE periods. The changes in the PNA index and the geostrophic flow components during the POST period are consistent with drier and warmer conditions in the Pacific Northwest. The 700-millibar data display trends and differences between the BASE and POST periods; differences in composite anomalies for selected winter months between these periods show a well-defined PNA pattern. For many areas of the North Pacific, the record of SSTs shows a significant long-term trend

Water-Resources Investigations Report