J. Hugh Ellis | Geology Reports

USGS2023

Highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) virus clade 2.3.4.4b infections in wild terrestrial mammals, United States, 2022

We describe the pathology of natural infection with highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) virus of Eurasian lineage Goose/Guangdong clade 2.3.4.4b in 67 wild terrestrial mammals throughout the United States during April 1‒July 21, 2022. Affected mammals include 50 red foxes ( Vulpes vulpes ), 6 striped skunks ( Mephitis mephitis ), 4 raccoons ( Procyon lotor ), 2 bobcats ( Lynx rufus ), 2 Virginia opossums ( Didelphis virginiana ), 1 coyote ( Canis latrans ), 1 fisher ( Pekania pennanti ), and 1 gray fox ( Urocyon cinereoargenteus ). Infected mammals showed primarily neurologic signs. Necrotizing meningoencephalitis, interstitial pneumonia, and myocardial necrosis were the most common lesions; however, species variations in lesion distribution were observed. Genotype analysis of sequences from 48 animals indicates that these cases represent spillover infections from wild birds.

Emerging Infectious Diseases↗

USGS2021

Supporting cost-effective watershed management strategies for Chesapeake Bay using a modeling and optimization framework

Extensive efforts to adaptively manage nutrient pollution rely on Chesapeake Bay Program's (Phase 6) Watershed Model, called Chesapeake Assessment Scenario Tool (CAST), which helps decision-makers plan and track implementation of Best Management Practices (BMPs). We describe mathematical characteristics of CAST and develop a constrained nonlinear BMP-subset model, software, and visualization framework. This represents the first publicly available optimization framework for exploring least-cost strategies of pollutant load control for the United States' largest estuary . The optimization identifies implementation options for a BMP subset modeled with load reduction effectiveness factors, and the web interface facilitates interactive exploration of >30,000 solutions organized by objective, nutrient control level, and for ~200 counties. We assess framework performance and demonstrate modeled cost improvements when comparing optimization-suggested proposals with proposals inspired by jurisdiction plans. Stakeholder feedback highlights the framework's current utility for investigating cost-effective tradeoffs and its usefulness as a foundation for future analysis of restoration strategies.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗