Geology topics

J. Hardin Waddle

Publications and source records attributed to J. Hardin Waddle.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Two-stage approach to automatic detection with machine learning for improved surveillance of the invasive Cuban treefrog

The Cuban treefrog ( Osteopilus septentrionalis ), as an invasive species in the southern United States, presents a need for effective surveillance. Automated detection expedites processing of audio data for large-scale surveillance and monitoring programs. However, current available methods commonly used for anuran species have not been sufficient to detect Cuban treefrogs. Here, we present results from a two-stage method for automated detection that employs both cross-correlation template matching and secondary supervised learning classifiers. In the first stage, audio data are screened for initial detections using template matching, in which the detections contain both true and false positives. In the second stage, the false positives are screened out using classifier algorithms. We used this method to process 139,985 audio recordings, consisting of 596,046 total minutes, collected at 13 locations in Louisiana and Florida from 2014 to 2022. From the stage 1 template matching, we detected 83,191 Cuban treefrog signals across recordings. The stage 2 machine learning model was able to identify stage 1 false positive detections with a testing accuracy of 98.46% and a testing false positive rate of 1.116%. After pruning false positive detections, a total of 20,271 individual Cuban treefrog detections remained, distributed mainly across 3 sites in an area with known presence. Locations with presumed absence had an easily verifiable number of false positive detections ( n = 109 across all other sites). The two-stage methodology utilizing both template matching and machine learning algorithms can be integrated into wildlife surveillance or monitoring programs for species with distinctive, conserved calls as an effective way to achieve sensitive species detection with a low incidence of false positives.

Florida, Louisiana↗

USGS2025

Tracing invasion routes of Cuban treefrogs into Louisiana using mitochondrial DNA

Understanding the origin and spread of invasive species is critical for predicting when and where new introductions will establish, and impact native species. However, due to the complexity of contributing factors such as multiple introductions, dispersal method, genetic admixture in founding populations, and variable propagule pressure, genetic patterns observed in invasive species may not always conform to a single theoretical expectation. Cuban treefrogs ( Osteopilus septentrionalis ) are invasive in peninsular Florida and sporadically in the Florida panhandle. Though O. septentrionalis has been occasionally reported in Louisiana since the 1990s, established populations were not present until the discovery of a breeding population in New Orleans in 2017. In this study we investigated the source of this novel population using existing and newly generated cytochrome B (cyt-b) mitochondrial gene sequences from the native and invasive range of O. septentrionalis . We recovered a total of 14 cyt-b haplotypes, nine novel and five previously published. Within the 95 Louisiana invasion samples, we recovered seven haplotypes including five novel haplotypes. The haplotypes most common in Louisiana were shared exclusively with west and east Florida localities in central Florida, indicating a possible source population. The presence of haplotypes private to the Louisiana locality suggests other unsampled localities may also be contributing to the Louisiana settlement. Metrics of genetic diversity across native and invasive localities did not significantly differ. Furthermore, the Louisiana samples had higher genetic diversity than any single location sampled within Florida. Thus, genetic diversity and our haplotype connectivity suggest the Louisiana population is derived from multiple introductions from Florida. Our study highlights how demographic and genetic analyses can be utilized to understand the source and future expansion potential of invasive populations.

Florida, Louisiana↗

USGS2025

Quantifying the relative importance of survival threats to a long-lived reptile using expert elicitation

Long-term survival of a conservation-reliant species requires understanding the impact of threats on population growth rate and the management actions that can help mitigate these threats. We used a threat assessment with expert-elicited estimates to determine the relative effect of each stage-specific threat on the population growth rate of the wood turtle Glyptemys insculpta . In addition, we offered potential management actions that could mitigate these threats and examined the relative cost and benefit of each. The experts responded that predators had the largest effect on hatchling and juvenile survival and that road mortality had the largest effect on adult survival. The population growth rate of the simulated turtle population increased the most when predators were removed from the system, though the population trajectory remained negative. Finally, we found that predator control had the lowest cost:benefit ratio of the proposed management actions. The process used in this analysis of expert elicitation combined with modeling that accounts for uncertainty proved to be a useful technique that is less expensive and labor intensive than empirical studies and quicker to implement, although it relies on sufficient empirical studies to inform expert responses. This process could be replicated for other species to inform species status assessments.

Endangered Species Research↗

USGS2025

Assessing survey design for long-term population trend detection in piping plovers

Determining appropriate spatio-temporal scales for monitoring migratory shorebirds is challenging. Effective surveys must detect population trends without excessive or insufficient sampling, yet many programs lack formal evaluations of survey effectiveness. Using data from 2012 to 2019 on Louisiana’s barrier islands (Whiskey, west Raccoon, east Raccoon, and Trinity), we assessed how spatial and temporal scales influence population trend inference for piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus ). Point count data were aggregated to grid sizes from 50 to 200 m and analyzed using Bayesian dynamic occupancy models. We found occupancy and colonization estimates varied by spatial resolution, with space–time autocorrelation common across scales. Smaller islands (east and west Raccoon) yielded higher trend detection power due to better detectability, while larger islands (Trinity and Whiskey) showed lower power. Detectability, more than sampling frequency, drove trend inference. Models incorporating spatial autocorrelation outperformed traditional Frequentist approaches but showed poorer fit at coarser scales. These findings underscore how matching analytical scale to ecological processes and selecting appropriate models can influence predictions. Power analysis revealed that increasing survey frequency may improve inference, especially in low-detectability areas. Overall, our study highlights how careful scale selection, model diagnostics, and survey design can enhance monitoring efficiency and support long-term conservation of migratory shorebirds.

Louisiana↗

USGS2025

Independent and interactive effects of disease and methylmercury on demographic rates across multiple amphibian populations

Disease, alone or combined with other stressors such as habitat loss and contaminants, affects wildlife populations worldwide. However, interactions among stressors and how they affect demography and populations remain poorly understood. The amphibian chytrid fungus ( Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ; Bd) is a sometimes-lethal pathogen linked with population declines and extirpations of amphibians globally. Laboratory evidence shows ubiquitous contaminants like methylmercury (MeHg) can reduce vigor and survival of amphibians, but population-level effects remain unclear. We used non-lethal sampling to assess how Bd and MeHg affected survival of juvenile and adult amphibians in 20 populations across the USA. Survival of several species declined with increasing Bd loads, including some species previously considered resistant to Bd (e.g., eastern newt [ Notophthalmus viridescens ]). Although our sampling for MeHg was less intensive than for Bd, we found MeHg can both directly reduce survival and synergistically magnify the effects of Bd infection. For a population of foothill yellow-legged frogs ( Rana boylii ), the estimated reduction in survival from MeHg exceeded that from Bd. Although effects varied widely among populations and species, our results help clarify the potential for synergistic effects of disease and contaminants and emphasize the complexity of identifying and quantifying the population-level effects of interactions among stressors.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2025

Vertebrates in trade that pose high invasion risk to the United States

The United States imports thousands of live vertebrate species annually as part of legal trade. Escapes and releases from captivity are major pathways of invasion, however, the risk posed by the thousands of imported vertebrate species has not been systematically assessed. We conducted a horizon scan that used a data-driven climate match to filter a list of nearly 15,000 taxa drawn from across the globe of imported fish, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals for rapid assessment by taxonomic experts. Experts evaluated 840 species and identified 32 (22 reptiles and 10 fishes) as having the highest risk for establishment, spread, and negative impacts. Of those high-risk species, the majority have the capacity to disrupt ecosystem processes via their role as top predators or the unique ecological niches that they occupy, while several of the snake species pose a threat to human health. High-risk species were often scored with high confidence while in contrast, low scores were attributed to a combination of ecological redundancy, low propagule pressure, or low climate match while low confidence arose from a lack of information in the literature (i.e., data deficiency). Our study therefore highlights legally imported species likely to cause the greatest harm with the recognition that many other species could also become invasive in the United States. The ranked list of vertebrate threats can be used to prioritize watchlists and inform the development of targeted regulations for importation can be applied to regions to provide a rapid, preliminary screening for large pools of potential invaders.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2025

Understanding abundances and behaviors of shorebirds in coastal Louisiana

Barrier islands provide resources and ecological services that are integral to economic and environmental interests, such as protection of coastal infrastructure and provision of wildlife habitat. Over time, barrier islands may become eroded and experience land loss, which can require management actions to restore island integrity. Barrier island restoration can create or modify habitats, which can impact the organisms depending on them. Our objective was to understand how the abundance and behaviors of a suite of shorebird species responded to restoration and habitat factors at two restored sites in coastal Louisiana (USA). For five focal species, we used abundance from the breeding and non-breeding seasons as well as breeding, foraging, and maintenance behaviors as response variables in boosted regression tree models to determine the importance of various geospatial and remotely sensed predictor variables related to restoration. Across sites and species, remotely sensed variables, particularly a brightness index, tended to be more important than restoration phases as predictors of bird abundance and behavior. Our results suggest that sediment composition, moisture, and vegetative cover are related to shorebird coastal habitat selection, although the direction and strength of relationships differ among these variables and our focal species. Tying these remote sensing metrics to restoration design and management actions can help land managers better understand factors that attract and benefit birds. Additional research can advance understanding in how remote sensing can be used to monitor the availability of functional habitats for shorebirds.

BioRxiv↗

USGS2025

Early season tropical cyclones affect birds breeding on a barrier island

Animal populations often experience acute natural disturbances, most of which are connected to short—term weather events. Occurrences of early—season tropical cyclones during the peak of the avian breeding season are likely to increase with climate change, which can substantially impact populations of coastal breeding birds at multiple scales. To understand the acute impacts of severe tropical cyclones, we investigated how abundances of breeding birds changed before and after 4 early season named tropical cyclones on a barrier island in the Gulf of Mexico. We detected a change in pre— versus post—storm numbers of breeding birds after 2 out of 4 storms between 2015–2020. Following Tropical Storm Cindy and Hurricane Barry, significant declines in breeding adults ranged from a reduction of 32 Willets ( Tringa semipalmata ) to 105 Wilson’s Plover ( Anarhynchus wilsoni a) and 18 Willets to 1,794 Black Skimmer ( Rynchops niger ), respectively. The lack of response following 2 storms was likely due to the location of the storms relative to the island. Following the 2 storms that did elicit a response by breeding birds, we observed lower abundances in the majority of species after the storm passed. Species life histories and habitat restoration might explain the species—specific responses we observed. Our study documents occurrences of early—season tropical cyclones negatively affecting coastal breeding birds, which could be exacerbated with sea level rise. Additionally, our findings may provide insights regarding island design and nest susceptibility to flooding events, which may aid land managers as well as conservation and restoration planners.

Louisiana↗

USGS2024

Accounting for multiple uncertainties in a decision-support population viability assessment

Conservation and management decisions often must be made on strict timelines, based on the “best available information” regarding a species’ current and expected future status. Simulation models are valuable tools for predicting a species’ future status but must incorporate multiple types of uncertainty in order to provide a complete understanding of plausible outcomes. Here we present a population viability analysis for a data-deficient species proposed for protection under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, the alligator snapping turtle. We used a matrix population model to simulate population trajectories, incorporating both parametric uncertainty and temporal variation into demographic parameters. We used expert elicitation to generate modified survival rates in the presence of specific anthropogenic threats, for which empirical estimates were unavailable. Because uncertainty in the expert elicited values was of particular interest to decision makers, we constructed a set of simulation scenarios to evaluate the sensitivity of model conclusions to the accuracy of expert elicited parameters. Our model predicted steep population declines under all scenarios with anthropogenic threats, indicating that under- or overestimation by experts would not change the overall conclusion that populations would decline. An additional sensitivity analysis revealed that a parameter related to nest survival for which there was high disagreement among experts had a negligible effect on model outcome, while other parameters (e.g., the effect of poaching) had more influence. Our analyses demonstrate the use of an expert-parameterized decision-support population viability analysis that explicitly evaluates the effects of multiple sources of uncertainty on model predictions.

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mi↗

USGS2023

Broad-scale assessment of methylmercury in adult amphibians

Mercury (Hg) is a toxic contaminant that has been mobilized and distributed worldwide and is a threat to many wildlife species. Amphibians are facing unprecedented global declines due to many threats including contaminants. While the biphasic life history of many amphibians creates a potential nexus for methylmercury (MeHg) exposure in aquatic habitats and subsequent health effects, the broad-scale distribution of MeHg exposure in amphibians remains unknown. We used nonlethal sampling to assess MeHg bioaccumulation in 3,241 juvenile and adult amphibians during 2017–2021. We sampled 26 populations (14 species) across 11 states in the United States, including several imperiled species that could not have been sampled by traditional lethal methods. We examined whether life history traits of species and whether the concentration of total mercury in sediment or dragonflies could be used as indicators of MeHg bioaccumulation in amphibians. Methylmercury contamination was widespread, with a 33-fold difference in concentrations across sites. Variation among years and clustered subsites was less than variation across sites. Life history characteristics such as size, sex, and whether the amphibian was a frog, toad, newt, or other salamander were the factors most strongly associated with bioaccumulation. Total Hg in dragonflies was a reliable indicator of bioaccumulation of MeHg in amphibians (R 2 ≥ 0.67), whereas total Hg in sediment was not (R 2 ≤ 0.04). Our study, the largest broad-scale assessment of MeHg bioaccumulation in amphibians, highlights methodological advances that allow for nonlethal sampling of rare species and reveals immense variation among species, life histories, and sites. Our findings can help identify sensitive populations and provide environmentally relevant concentrations for future studies to better quantify the potential threats of MeHg to amphibians.

Environmental Science and Technology↗

USGS2023

Shorebird monitoring using spatially explicit occupancy and abundance

Loss of habitat and human disturbance are major factors in the worldwide decline of shorebird populations, including that of the threatened migratory piping plover ( Charadrius melodus ). From 2013 to 2018, we conducted land-based surveys of the shorebird community every other week during the peak piping plover season (September to March). We assessed the ability of a thin plate spline occupancy model to identify hotspot locations on Whiskey Island, Louisiana, for the piping plover and four additional shorebird species (Wilson’s plover ( Charadrius wilsonia ), snowy plover ( Charadrius nivosus ), American oystercatcher ( Haematopus palliatus ), and red knot ( Calidris canutus )). By fitting single-species occupancy models with geographic thin plate spline parameters, hotspot priority regions for conserving piping plovers and the multispecies shorebird assemblage were identified on the island. The occupancy environmental covariate, distance to the coastline, was weakly fitting, where the spatially explicit models were heavily dependent on the spatial spline parameter for distribution estimation. Additionally, the detectability parameters for Julian date and tide stage affected model estimations, resulting in seemingly inflated estimates compared to assuming perfect detection. The models predicted species distributions, biodiversity, high-use habitats for conservation, and multispecies conservation areas using a thin-plate spline for spatially explicit estimation without significant landscape variables, demonstrating the applicability of this modeling approach for defining areas on a landscape that are more heavily used by a species or multiple species.

Louisiana↗

USGS2023

Thirteen years of turtle capture–mark–recapture in a small urban pond complex in Louisiana, USA

Turtles are one of the most imperiled vertebrate groups in the world. With habitat destruction unabated in many places, urban and suburban greenspaces may serve as refugia for turtles, at least those species able to tolerate heavily altered landscapes. In south-central Louisiana, we have conducted a turtle capture–mark–recapture effort in two ponds in an urban greenspace for 13 yr to understand species composition, survival, and individual growth rates. We had 574 total captures of 251 individuals of five species from 2009–2021, with Trachemys scripta elegans (Red-Eared Sliders) and Sternotherus odoratus (Eastern Musk Turtles) being the most common. Apparent annual survival for T. scripta (0.79) was similar to estimates reported in other studies in altered habitats, whereas apparent annual survival for S. odoratus (0.89) was slightly or much higher than other published studies. Growth rates of T. scripta were comparable to other studies and showed both sexes have similar rates of growth until maturity, which is earlier and at a smaller size in males. The two ponds showed marked differences in captures by size, with significantly more juvenile T. scripta captured in the pond with more vegetation, depth, and a softer bottom. Most T. scripta (78.5%) that were recaptured came from the same pond from which they were originally captured. The basic demographic data gained in this study can serve as a starting point for broader questions on urbanization effects and as a comparison to more natural populations.

Louisiana↗

USGS2023

Conclusions of evaluation of restoration for avian species at Caminada Headland and Whiskey Island, Louisiana

We conducted various analyses to determine the impact of coastal restoration on several focal avian species at Caminada Headland and Whiskey Island, Louisiana. We assessed if restoration affected avian use of restored sites by determining overall habitat changes, occupancy trends, and impacts of construction activities. Here, we summarize our findings from Chapters 2-9. For more details and additional information, please see Chapters 1-9 in this report.

Louisiana↗

USGS2023

Site occupancy of focal shorebird species at Whiskey Island and Caminada Headland, Louisiana 2012–2020

Coastal restoration through island construction and augmentation is an increasingly common management method in the northern Gulf of Mexico, but evaluating the impacts to shorebird species is difficult. Shorebirds are mostly migratory and many aspects of their life history, including reproduction in some species, occur in other places. In addition, counts or observations of shorebirds made at any given time represent only a portion of the population and that proportion may change with site conditions such as time of day and weather. Dynamic occupancy models can account for imperfect detection and produce estimates of the proportion of area occupied over time as a way to track trends in bird utilization over time. In this chapter we report on occupancy trends for five focal shorebird species from Caminada Headland and Whiskey Island: American Oystercatcher ( Haematopus palliatus ), Piping Plover ( Charadrius melodus ), Red Knot ( Calidris canutus ), Snowy Plover ( Charadrius nivosus ), and Wilson’s Plover ( Charadrius wilsonia ). We examined up to nine years of surveys at the two sites to model long-term trends in occupancy rates from a period spanning before, during, and after restoration. Our objective was to determine if there was change in occupancy over time (trend) during the restoration period. Field sampling was conducted as described in Chapter 1 for the five focal species in this chapter. To create spatial units for occupancy analysis we used a grid of 53 unique cells at Caminada Headland and 26 unique cells at Whiskey Island. All observations of the species were located into spatial units using GIS and presence of each species in each cell was determined for each visit within a sampling season. Sampling seasons were defined for species as the period of time where they were most likely to be using the study area, and corresponded with wintering (August–May), breeding (April–August), or staging (March–October). We did not include covariates for initial occupancy or colonization and site survival because these were small sites with homogenous habitat. We did account for time of year within a season by treating survey date as a covariate of detection probability and allowed it to vary throughout the season. We tested for a trend in occupancy over time by determining if the estimated slope through the series of annual occupancy estimates was significantly different from 0. We conducted 153 total surveys at Caminada Headland from 11 January 2013 to 5 June 2019, and 213 total surveys at Whiskey Island from 7 August 2012 to 19 August 2020. The number of surveys per year varied by species and site and range from 6–23 per species annually at Caminada Headland and 11–28 per species annually at Whiskey Island. Occupancy trends were able to be assessed for all species at both sites, with the exception of the American Oystercatcher, which were only observed in sufficient numbers to estimate occupancy at Whiskey Island. We found a significant positive trend in occupancy from 0.325 to 0.741 for American Oystercatcher at Whiskey Island. There was no significant trend in Piping Plover occupancy at Caminada Headland where occupancy was consistently high (0.910 to 0.947). At Whiskey Island, Piping Plover occupancy estimates increased from 0.574 to 0.908 during the study period which was a significant increase. At Caminada Headland and Whiskey Island Red Knot occupancy varied from 0.482 to 0.891 and 0.350 to 0.742, respectively, but showed no significant trend over the study period. Snowy Plover occupancy at Caminada Headland increased significantly from 0.295 to 0.785 over the study period. Snowy Plover occupancy also increased significantly at Whiskey Island from 0.442 to 0.906. Wilson’s Plover occupancy declined slightly during the study period from 0.946 to 0.935 at Caminada Headland, and from 0.858 to 0.736 at Whiskey Island, but the decline was not significant at either site. We found no evidence that occupancy declined significantly for any of the species during the period prior to, during, and after restoration. We did find a significant increasing trend in occupancy for Snowy Plover at Caminada Headland and a significant increasing trend for American Oystercatcher, Piping Plover, and Snowy Plover at Whiskey Island. Our modeling results indicate that sampling such as this is sufficient for occupancy modeling and can provide a robust metric for comparison over time or among sites. In future research we plan to investigate the sample size needed to detect a trend. We are currently conducting a power analysis to determine the minimum amount of sampling necessary to have power to detect a trend based on the detection probabilities from this study.

Report↗

USGS2022

Open removal models with temporary emigration and population dynamics to inform invasive animal management

Removal sampling data are the primary source of monitoring information for many populations (e.g., invasive species, fisheries). Population dynamics, temporary emigration, and imperfect detection are common sources of variation in monitoring data and are key parameters for informing management. We developed two open robust-design removal models for simultaneously modeling population dynamics, temporary emigration, and imperfect detection: a random walk linear trend model (estimable without ancillary information), and a 2-age class informed population model (InfoPM, closely related to integrated population models) that incorporated prior information for age-structured vital rates and relative juvenile availability. We applied both models to multiyear, removal trapping time-series of a large invasive lizard (Argentine black and white tegu, Salvator merianae ) in three management areas of South Florida to evaluate the effectiveness of management programs. Although estimates of the two models were similar, the InfoPMs generally returned more precise estimates, partitioned dynamics into births, deaths, net migration, and provided a decision support tool to predict population dynamics under different effort scenarios while accounting for uncertainty. Trends in tegu superpopulation abundance estimates were increasing in two management areas despite generally high removal rates. However, tegu abundance appeared to decline in the Core management area, where trapping density was the highest and immigration the lowest. Finally, comparing abundance predictions of no-removal scenarios to those estimated in each management area suggested significant population reductions due to management. These results suggest that local tegu population control via systematic trapping may be feasible with high enough trap density and limited immigration; and highlights the value of these trapping programs. We provided the first estimates of tegu abundance, capture probabilities, and population dynamics, which is critical for effective management. Furthermore, our models are applicable to a wide range of monitoring programs (e.g., carcass recovery or removal point-counts).

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2022

Estimating detection and occupancy of secretive marsh bird species in low and high saline marshes in southwestern Louisiana using automated recording units

Secretive marsh birds (SMBs) are important indicator species of coastal wetlands but are difficult to detect and monitor. In coastal Louisiana, an important stronghold for these species, climate and hydrological models predict that freshwater and intermediate marshes will expand in the next 50 years, while brackish marshes will shrink. We used a multi-species Bayesian hierarchical occupancy model to estimate detection and occupancy probabilities for 11 SMB species in low and high saline marshes using data from automated recording units at 33 sites in southwestern Louisiana from February–June 2012. A quadratic effect of Julian date, but not minimum daily temperature nor precipitation affected detection of SMB species. King Rail ( Rallus elegans ), American Bittern ( Botaurus lentiginosus ), Common Gallinule ( Gallinula galeata ), and Pied-billed Grebe ( Podilymbus podiceps ) occupied mainly freshwater and intermediate marshes. Clapper Rail ( Rallus crepitans ), Seaside Sparrow ( Ammospiza maritima ), and Sora ( Porzana carolina ) predominantly occupied brackish and salt marshes. American Coot ( Fulica americana ), Purple Gallinule ( Porphyrio martinica ), Least Bittern ( Ixobrychus exilis ), and Marsh Wren ( Cistothorus palustris ) occupied both low and high saline marshes, showing flexibility that could maintain populations of these species as marsh salinities change in the future. If the current distribution of SMB species persists as marsh availability changes under future conditions, populations of the 4 species we found in low saline marshes may increase, whereas populations of at least 2 species found primarily in high saline marshes may decrease. Our modeling indicates that automatic recording units can produce comparable detection probabilities to other studies using traditional SMB sampling methods.

Louisiana↗

USGS2021

Hierarchical models improve the use of alligator abundance as an indicator

Indicator species are species which can be monitored as an index to measure the overall health of an ecosystem. Crocodylians have been shown to be good indicators of wetland condition as they respond to changes in hydrology, can be efficiently monitored, and are a key part of ecosystem trophic relationships. Eye shine surveys at night are a standard method used to sample alligators, but because some individuals that are present in a study area may go undetected and the proportion of individuals counted is not constant over time, appropriate modeling is required to convert counts to estimates of abundance. We analyzed 13 years of American alligator ( Alligator mississippiensis ) survey count data from South Florida using an N -mixture model. Alligator abundance estimates were assigned to quartiles that were then represented as color coded categories of red, yellow, or green to provide a straightforward rating of Everglades restoration based on familiar stoplight coloring. These results were then compared to a previously used method in which unadjusted counts of these same data were assigned to color coded quartile categories. Water depth played a major role in the detection probability of alligators and the stoplight colors between the two methods matched 76% of the time. This suggests that the original stoplight score method provided a good overall snapshot of the trends in alligator abundance in the Everglades; however, the hierarchical models estimate abundance and trends of alligator abundance by incorporating detection probability thus providing unbiased estimates of abundance.

Florida↗

USGS2020

Effects of barrier island salt marsh restoration on marsh bird occurrence in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

In the Northern Gulf of Mexico, salt marshes are threatened by sea level rise, erosion, and loss of protective barrier islands. These barrier islands provide critical habitat for wildlife, including globally significant populations of marsh and shorebirds. We investigated salt marsh restoration on two Louisiana barrier islands using presence of 8 marsh bird species as an index to evaluate restoration success. Land loss was extensive for both islands prior to restoration, with submerged marsh restored by backfilling sediment into the marsh platform. Restoration methods were similar between the two islands, although Raccoon Island was built to a higher elevation (1.1 m) than Whiskey Island (0.8m). Avian presence was estimated via passive acoustic monitoring and point counts. To evaluate restoration success, we modeled influence of habitat covariates on index species presence in restored and reference (intact) sites over three breeding seasons and modeled occupancy for 6 species. On Whiskey Island, index richness was higher in restored sites. Marsh specialists Seaside Sparrows ( Ammospiza maritima ) and Least Bitterns ( Ixobrychus exilis ) had higher occupancy in restored areas on Whiskey, while generalist species showed no response to site. These results are likely due to a strong association between habitat and vegetation type, with restored sites dominated by Spartina alterniflora and reference sites by Avicennia germinans . On Raccoon Island, species richness was low across all sites. Our results suggest that restoration efforts were successful in creating salt marsh habitat on Whiskey but not Raccoon as of the time of our study.

Louisiana↗