Geology topics

J. Franklin

Publications and source records attributed to J. Franklin.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2009

The 2007 southern California wildfires: Lessons in complexity

The 2007 wildfire season in southern California burned over 1,000,000 ac (∼400,000 ha) and included several megafires. We use the 2007 fires as a case study to draw three major lessons about wildfires and wildfire complexity in southern California. First, the great majority of large fires in southern California occur in the autumn under the influence of Santa Ana windstorms. These fires also cost the most to contain and cause the most damage to life and property, and the October 2007 fires were no exception because thousands of homes were lost and seven people were killed. Being pushed by wind gusts over 100 kph, young fuels presented little barrier to their spread as the 2007 fires reburned considerable portions of the area burned in the historic 2003 fire season. Adding to the size of these fires was the historic 2006‐2007 drought that contributed to high dead fuel loads and long distance spotting. As in 2003, young chaparral stands and fuel treatments were not reliable barriers to fire in October 2007. Second, the Zaca Fire in July and August 2007 showed that other factors besides high winds can sometimes combine to create conditions for large fires in southern California. Spring and summer fires in southern California chaparral are usually easily contained because of higher fuel moisture and the general lack of high winds. However, the Zaca Fire burned in a remote wilderness area of rugged terrain that made access difficult. In addition, because of its remoteness, anthropogenic ignitions have been low and stand age and fuel loads were high. Coupled with this was severe drought that year that generated fuel moisture levels considerably below normal for early summer. A third lesson comes from 2007 conifer forest fires in the southern California mountains. In contrast to lower elevation chaparral, fire suppression has led to major increases in conifer forest fuels that can lead to unnaturally severe fires when ignitions escape control. The Slide and Grass Valley Fires of October 2007 occurred in forests that had been subject to extensive fuel treatment, but fire control was complicated by a patchwork of untreated private properties and mountain homes built of highly flammable materials. In a fashion reminiscent of other recent destructive conifer fires in California, burning homes themselves were a major source of fire spread. These lessons suggest that the most important advances in fire safety in this region are to come from advances in fire prevention, fire preparedness, and land-use planning that includes fire hazard patterns.

California↗

USGS2008

Effect of species rarity on the accuracy of species distribution models for reptiles and amphibians in southern California

Aim: Several studies have found that more accurate predictive models of species' occurrences can be developed for rarer species; however, one recent study found the relationship between range size and model performance to be an artefact of sample prevalence, that is, the proportion of presence versus absence observations in the data used to train the model. We examined the effect of model type, species rarity class, species' survey frequency, detectability and manipulated sample prevalence on the accuracy of distribution models developed for 30 reptile and amphibian species. Location: Coastal southern California, USA. Methods: Classification trees, generalized additive models and generalized linear models were developed using species presence and absence data from 420 locations. Model performance was measured using sensitivity, specificity and the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) plot based on twofold cross-validation, or on bootstrapping. Predictors included climate, terrain, soil and vegetation variables. Species were assigned to rarity classes by experts. The data were sampled to generate subsets with varying ratios of presences and absences to test for the effect of sample prevalence. Join count statistics were used to characterize spatial dependence in the prediction errors. Results: Species in classes with higher rarity were more accurately predicted than common species, and this effect was independent of sample prevalence. Although positive spatial autocorrelation remained in the prediction errors, it was weaker than was observed in the species occurrence data. The differences in accuracy among model types were slight. Main conclusions: Using a variety of modelling methods, more accurate species distribution models were developed for rarer than for more common species. This was presumably because it is difficult to discriminate suitable from unsuitable habitat for habitat generalists, and not as an artefact of the effect of sample prevalence on model estimation. ?? 2008 The Authors.

Diversity and Distributions↗

USGS2007

Calibrating a forest landscape model to simulate frequent fire in Mediterranean-type shrublands

In Mediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs), fire disturbance influences the distribution of most plant communities, and altered fire regimes may be more important than climate factors in shaping future MTE vegetation dynamics. Models that simulate the high-frequency fire and post-fire response strategies characteristic of these regions will be important tools for evaluating potential landscape change scenarios. However, few existing models have been designed to simulate these properties over long time frames and broad spatial scales. We refined a landscape disturbance and succession (LANDIS) model to operate on an annual time step and to simulate altered fire regimes in a southern California Mediterranean landscape. After developing a comprehensive set of spatial and non-spatial variables and parameters, we calibrated the model to simulate very high fire frequencies and evaluated the simulations under several parameter scenarios representing hypotheses about system dynamics. The goal was to ensure that observed model behavior would simulate the specified fire regime parameters, and that the predictions were reasonable based on current understanding of community dynamics in the region. After calibration, the two dominant plant functional types responded realistically to different fire regime scenarios. Therefore, this model offers a new alternative for simulating altered fire regimes in MTE landscapes. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗

USGS2006

Simulating the effects of frequent fire on southern california coastal shrublands

Fire disturbance is a primary agent of change in the mediterranean-climate chaparral shrublands of southern California, USA. However, fire frequency has been steadily increasing in coastal regions due to ignitions at the growing wildland-urban interface. Although chaparral is resilient to a range of fire frequencies, successively short intervals between fires can threaten the persistence of some species, and the effects may differ according to plant functional type. California shrublands support high levels of biological diversity, including many endangered and endemic species. Therefore, it is important to understand the long-term effects of altered fire regimes on these communities. A spatially explicit simulation model of landscape disturbance and succession (LANDIS) was used to predict the effects of frequent fire on the distribution of dominant plant functional types in a study area administered by the National Park Service. Shrubs dependent on fire-cued seed germination were most sensitive to frequent fire and lost substantial cover to other functional types, including drought-deciduous subshrubs that typify coastal sage scrub and nonnative annual grasses. Shrubs that resprout were favored by higher fire frequencies and gained in extent under these treatments. Due to this potential for vegetation change, caution is advised against the widespread use of prescribed fire in the region. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2003

Regional sediment budget of the Columbia River littoral cell, USA: Analysis of bathymetric- and topographic-volume change

In this Open-File Report we present calculations of changes in bathymetric and topographic volumes for the Grays Harbor, Willapa Bay, and Columbia River entrances and the adjacent coasts of North Beach, Grayland Plains, Long Beach, and Clatsop Plains for four intervals: pre-jetty - 1920s (Interval 1), 1920s - 1950s (Interval 2), 1950s - 1990s (Interval 3), and 1920s 1990s (Interval 4). This analysis is part of the Southwest Washington Coastal Erosion Study (SWCES), the goals of which are to understand and predict the morphologic behavior of the Columbia River littoral cell on a management scale of tens of kilometers and decades. We obtain topographic Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) data from a joint project by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA), and the Washington State Department of Ecology (DOE) and bathymetric data from the U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey (USC&GS), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), USGS, and the DOE. Shoreline data are digitized from T-Sheets and aerial photographs from the USC&GS and National Ocean Service (NOS). Instead of uncritically adjusting each survey to NAVD88, a common vertical land-based datum, we adjust some surveys to produce optimal results according to the following criteria. First, we minimize offsets in overlapping surveys within the same era, and second, we minimize bathymetric changes (relative to the 1990s) in deep water, where we assume minimal change has taken place. We grid bathymetric and topographic datasets using kriging and triangulation algorithms, calculate bathymetric-change surfaces for each interval, and calculate volume changes within polygons that are overlaid on the bathymetric-change surfaces. We find similar morphologic changes near the entrances to Grays Harbor and the Columbia River following jetty construction between 1898 and 1916 at the Grays Harbor entrance and between 1885 and 1913 at the Columbia River entrance. The inlets and inner deltas eroded and the outer deltas moved offshore and accreted. The adjacent coasts experienced accretion over alongshore distances of tens of kilometers. North of the Grays Harbor entrance along North Beach and north of the Columbia River entrance along Long Beach the shoreface and the beach-dune complex mainly prograded, whereas south of the Grays Harbor entrance along Grayland Plains and south of the Columbia River entrance along Clatsop Plains the beach-dune complex above -10 m NAVD88 prograded and the shoreface between approximately -30 m and -10 m NAVD88 eroded. In the decades following jetty construction, the rates of erosion and accretion at the entrances decreased and the centers of deposition along the adjacent coasts moved away from the entrances. The rates of change have decreased, suggesting the systems are approaching dynamic equilibrium. Exceptions to this behaviour are the accretion of the beach-dune complex of Long Beach, the erosion of Cape Shoalwater, and the northward migration of the Willapa Bay ebb-tidal delta during all intervals. The net shoreline advance of Long Beach increases from 0.28 m/yr in pre-jetty conditions to 3.78 m/yr during Interval 4. The erosion of Cape Shoalwater and the northward migration of the Willapa Bay ebb-tidal delta are related to the northern migration of the Willapa Bay North Channel. Volume changes at the Grays Harbor, Willapa Bay, and Columbia River entrances and the Columbia River estuary are balanced against losses and gains due to littoral transport and sand supply from the Columbia River. Based on these sediment balances, we infer the following pathways: sand that eroded from the inlets and inner deltas at the Grays Harbor and Columbia River entrances moved offshore and northward to accrete the outer deltas and the beaches to the north; sand from the south flank of the Grays Harbor delta and shelf along Grayland Plains moved onshore to accrete the beach dune complex of Grayland Plains and moved northward to maintain accretion of the outer delta and the beach-dune complex of North Beach; sand that eroded from the south flank of the Columbia River delta and shelf along Clatsop Plains contributed to the accretion of the beach-dune complex of Clatsop Plains and the Columbia River outer delta. The net volume change for Interval 1 and 3 at the Grays Harbor entrance and for Interval 1 at the Columbia River entrance is erosion, whereas the net change for the other intervals is accretion. For the entire CRLC, there is a net loss of 185 Mm 3 for Interval 1, a net gain of 357 Mm 3 for Interval 2, and a net gain of 187 Mm 3 for Interval 3. These imbalances can be the result of incomplete bathymetric coverage of the bays and shoreface, uncertainties in the adjustments of vertical tidal datums, inconsistencies in the bathymetric data, and uncertainties in the sediment supply of the Columbia River.

Oregon, Washington↗