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J. A. Coe

Publications and source records attributed to J. A. Coe.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2013

Field measurement of basal forces generated by erosive debris flows

It has been proposed that debris flows cut bedrock valleys in steeplands worldwide, but field measurements needed to constrain mechanistic models of this process remain sparse due to the difficulty of instrumenting natural flows. Here we present and analyze measurements made using an automated sensor network, erosion bolts, and a 15.24 cm by 15.24 cm force plate installed in the bedrock channel floor of a steep catchment. These measurements allow us to quantify the distribution of basal forces from natural debris‒flow events that incised bedrock. Over the 4 year monitoring period, 11 debris‒flow events scoured the bedrock channel floor. No clear water flows were observed. Measurements of erosion bolts at the beginning and end of the study indicated that the bedrock channel floor was lowered by 36 to 64 mm. The basal force during these erosive debris‒flow events had a large‒magnitude (up to 21 kN, which was approximately 50 times larger than the concurrent time‒averaged mean force), high‒frequency (greater than 1 Hz) fluctuating component. We interpret these fluctuations as flow particles impacting the bed. The resulting variability in force magnitude increased linearly with the time‒averaged mean basal force. Probability density functions of basal normal forces were consistent with a generalized Pareto distribution, rather than the exponential distribution that is commonly found in experimental and simulated monodispersed granular flows and which has a lower probability of large forces. When the bed sediment thickness covering the force plate was greater than ~ 20 times the median bed sediment grain size, no significant fluctuations about the time‒averaged mean force were measured, indicating that a thin layer of sediment (~ 5 cm in the monitored cases) can effectively shield the subjacent bed from erosive impacts. Coarse‒grained granular surges and water‒rich, intersurge flow had very similar basal force distributions despite differences in appearance and bulk‒flow density. These results demonstrate that debris flows can have strong control on rates of steepland evolution and contribute to a foundation needed for modeling debris‒flow incision stochastically.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2010

Analysis of elevation changes detected from multi-temporal LiDAR surveys in forested landslide terrain in western Oregon

We examined elevation changes detected from two successive sets of Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data in the northern Coast Range of Oregon. The first set of LiDAR data was acquired during leafon conditions and the second set during leaf-off conditions. We were able to successfully identify and map active landslides using a differential digital elevation model (DEM) created from the two LiDAR data sets, but this required the use of thresholds (0.50 and 0.75 m) to remove noise from the differential elevation data, visual pattern recognition of landslideinduced elevation changes, and supplemental QuickBird satellite imagery. After mapping, we field-verified 88 percent of the landslides that we had mapped with high confidence, but we could not detect active landslides with elevation changes of less than 0.50 m. Volumetric calculations showed that a total of about 18,100 m3 of material was missing from landslide areas, probably as a result of systematic negative elevation errors in the differential DEM and as a result of removal of material by erosion and transport. We also examined the accuracies of 285 leaf-off LiDAR elevations at four landslide sites using Global Positioning System and total station surveys. A comparison of LiDAR and survey data indicated an overall root mean square error of 0.50 m, a maximum error of 2.21 m, and a systematic error of 0.09 m. LiDAR ground-point densities were lowest in areas with young conifer forests and deciduous vegetation, which resulted in extensive interpolations of elevations in the leaf-on, bare-earth DEM. For optimal use of multi-temporal LiDAR data in forested areas, we recommend that all data sets be flown during leaf-off seasons.

Environmental & Engineering Geoscience↗
USGS2010

Evolution of a natural debris flow: In situ measurements of flow dynamics, video imagery, and terrestrial laser scanning

Many theoretical and laboratory studies have been undertaken to understand debris-flow processes and their associated hazards. However, complete and quantitative data sets from natural debris flows needed for confirmation of these results are limited. We used a novel combination of in situ measurements of debris-flow dynamics, video imagery, and pre- and postflow 2-cm-resolution digital terrain models to study a natural debris-flow event. Our field data constrain the initial and final reach morphology and key flow dynamics. The observed event consisted of multiple surges, each with clear variation of flow properties along the length of the surge. Steep, highly resistant, surge fronts of coarse-grained material without measurable pore-fluid pressure were pushed along by relatively fine-grained and water-rich tails that had a wide range of pore-fluid pressures (some two times greater than hydrostatic). Surges with larger nonequilibrium pore-fluid pressures had longer travel distances. A wide range of travel distances from different surges of similar size indicates that dynamic flow properties are of equal or greater importance than channel properties in determining where a particular surge will stop. Progressive vertical accretion of multiple surges generated the total thickness of mapped debris-flow deposits; nevertheless, deposits had massive, vertically unstratified sedimentological textures. ?? 2010 Geological Society of America.

Geology↗
USGS2009

Probabilistic estimation of numbers and costs of future landslides in the San Francisco Bay region

We used historical records of damaging landslides triggered by rainstorms and a newly developed Probabilistic Landslide Assessment Cost Estimation System (PLACES) to estimate the numbers and direct costs of future landslides in the 10-county San Francisco Bay region. Historical records of damaging landslides in the region are incomplete. Therefore, our estimates of numbers and costs of future landslides are minimal estimates. The estimated mean annual number of future damaging landslides for the entire 10-county region is about 65. Santa Cruz County has the highest estimated mean annual number of damaging future landslides (about 18), whereas Napa, San Francisco, and Solano Counties have the lowest estimated mean numbers of damaging landslides (about 1 each). The estimated mean annual cost of future landslides in the entire region is about US $14.80 million (year 2000 $). The estimated mean annual cost is highest for San Mateo County ($3.24 million) and lowest for Solano County ($0.18 million). The annual per capita cost for the entire region will be about $2.10. Santa Cruz County will have the highest annual per capita cost at $8.45, whereas San Francisco County will have the lowest per capita cost at $0.31. Normalising costs by dividing by the percentage of land area with slopes equal to or greater than 17% indicates that San Francisco County will have the highest cost per square km ($7,101), whereas Santa Clara County will have the lowest cost per square km ($229). These results indicate that the San Francisco Bay region has one of the highest levels of landslide risk in the United States. Compared with landslide cost estimates from the rest of the world, the risk level in the Bay region seems high, but not exceptionally high.

Georisk↗
USGS2008

Landslide risk in the San Francisco Bay region

We have used historical records of damaging landslides triggered by rainstorms, and a newly developed Probabilistic Landslide Assessment Cost Estimation System (PLACES), to estimate the numbers and direct costs of future landslides in the San Francisco Bay region. The estimated annual cost of future landslides in the entire region is about US $15 million (year 2000 $). The estimated annual cost is highest for San Mateo County ($3.32 million) and lowest for Solano County ($0.18 million). Normalizing costs by dividing by the percentage of land area with slopes equal or greater than about 10° indicates that San Francisco County will have the highest cost per square km ($7,400), whereas Santa Clara County will have the lowest cost per square km ($230). These results indicate that the San Francisco Bay region has one of the highest levels of landslide risk in the United States. Compared to landslide cost estimates from the rest of the world, the risk level in the Bay region seems high, but not exceptionally high.

California↗
USGS2007

Influence of tectonic folding on rockfall susceptibility, American Fork Canyon, Utah, USA

We examine rockfall susceptibility of folded strata in the Sevier fold-thrust belt exposed in American Fork Canyon in north-central Utah. Large-scale geologic mapping, talus production data, rock-mass-quality measurements, and historical rockfall data indicate that rockfall susceptibility is correlated with limb dip and curvature of the folded, cliff-forming Mississippian limestones. On fold limbs, rockfall susceptibility increases as dip increases. This relation is controlled by several factors, including an increase in adverse dip conditions and apertures of discontinuities, and shearing by flexural slip during folding that has reduced the friction angles of discontinuities by smoothing surface asperities. Susceptibility is greater in fold hinge zones than on adjacent limbs primarily because there are greater numbers of discontinuities in hinge zones. We speculate that susceptibility increases in hinge zones as fold curvature becomes tighter.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS2005

Regional landslide-hazard assessment for Seattle, Washington, USA

Landslides are a widespread, frequent, and costly hazard in Seattle and the Puget Sound area of Washington State, USA. Shallow earth slides triggered by heavy rainfall are the most common type of landslide in the area; many transform into debris flows and cause significant property damage or disrupt transportation. Large rotational and translational slides, though less common, also cause serious property damage. The hundreds of landslides that occurred during the winters of 1995-96 and 1996-97 stimulated renewed interest by Puget Sound communities in identifying landslide-prone areas and taking actions to reduce future landslide losses. Informal partnerships between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the City of Seattle, and private consultants are focusing on the problem of identifying and mapping areas of landslide hazard as well as characterizing temporal aspects of the hazard. We have developed GIS-based methods to map the probability of landslide occurrence as well as empirical rainfall thresholds and physically based methods to forecast times of landslide occurrence. Our methods for mapping landslide hazard zones began with field studies and physically based models to assess relative slope stability, including the effects of material properties, seasonal groundwater levels, and rainfall infiltration. We have analyzed the correlation between historic landslide occurrence and relative slope stability to map the degree of landslide hazard. The City of Seattle is using results of the USGS studies in storm preparedness planning for emergency access and response, planning for development or redevelopment of hillsides, and municipal facility planning and prioritization. Methods we have developed could be applied elsewhere to suit local needs and available data.

Landslides↗
USGS2003

Seasonal movement of the Slumgullion landslide determined from global positioning system surveys and field instrumentation, July 1998-March 2002

Measurements of landslide movement made by global positioning system surveys and extensometers over a 3.5-year period show that the Slumgullion landslide in the San Juan Mountains of southwest Colorado moved throughout the monitoring period, but that daily velocities varied on a seasonal basis. Landslide velocities peaked in the early spring and summer in response to snowmelt and summer thunderstorms, respectively. Velocities were slowest in mid-winter when air and soil temperatures were coldest and precipitation was generally low and/or in the form of snow with a low water content. We hypothesize that the seasonal variability in velocities is due to ground-water levels and corresponding pore pressures that decrease when surface water is unavailable or cannot infiltrate frozen landslide material, and increase when surface water from melting snow or rainfall infiltrates unfrozen landslide material. We also suggest that patches of bouldery debris and fractures (created by continuous movement of the landslide) are conduits through which surface water can infiltrate, regardless of the frozen or unfrozen state of the landslide matrix material. Therefore, the availability of surface water is more important than landslide temperature in controlling the rate of landslide movement. This hypothesis is supported by field instrumentation data that show (1) landslide velocities coinciding with precipitation amounts regardless of the depth of freezing of landslide material, (2) spring and annual landslide velocities that were greatest when the depth of freezing was also the greatest, and (3) a rapid (several weeks or less) velocity and pore pressure response to rainfall. The persistent, but seasonally variable movement of the landslide, fits the bathtub model for landslide movement described by Baum and Reid [Baum, R.L., Reid, M.E., 2000. Ground water isolation by low-permeability clays in landslide shear zones. In: Bromhead, E.N., Dixon, N., Ibsen, M.-L. (Eds.), Landslides in Research, Theory and Practice. Proc. 8th Int. Symp. on Landslides, Cardiff, Wales, vol. 1, 139-144]. In their model, the landslide is isolated both mechanically and hydrologically from adjacent materials by low permeability clays. These clays cause the landslide to retain water. Our data support this model by suggesting that pore pressures at the basal landslide surface are always adequate to maintain landslide movement and that any infiltration of water at the surface of the landslide is adequate to rapidly increase landslide velocity. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Engineering Geology↗
USGS2003

Remote sensing of rainfall for debris-flow hazard assessment

Recent advances in remote sensing of rainfall provide more detailed temporal and spatial data on rainfall distribution. Four case studies of abundant debris flows over relatively small areas triggered during intense rainstorms are examined noting the potential for using remotely sensed rainfall data for landslide hazard analysis. Three examples with rainfall estimates from National Weather Service Doppler radar and one example with rainfall estimates from infrared imagery from a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellite are compared with ground-based measurements of rainfall and with landslide distribution. The advantages and limitations of using remote sensing of rainfall for landslide hazard analysis are discussed. ?? 2003 Millpress,.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2001

Debris flows triggered by the El Nino rainstorm of February 2-3, 1998, Walpert Ridge and vicinity, Alameda County, California

On February 2 and 3, 1998, a rainstorm generated by the 1997-98 El Nino moved through the San Francisco Bay region of California triggering widespread slope failures. In the Walpert Ridge area of Alameda County 531 debris flows were triggered by the storm. These data depict the debris flows and landslides as polygons. The landslide polygons were mapped from 1:30,000 aerial photography using a PG2 photogrammetric plotter. The mapped debris flows and landslides were digitized manually in ArcInfo.

California↗
USGS2000

Measurement of ridge-spreading movements (Sackungen) at Bald Eagle Mountain, Lake County, Colorado, II: Continuation of the 1975-1989 measurements using a Global Positioning System in 1997 and 1999

Measurements of ridge-spreading movements at Bald Eagle Mountain in north-central Colorado were reported in USGS Open-File Report 90-543 for the years 1975-1989. Measurements were renewed in 1997 and 1999 using the Global Positioning System (GPS). Movements are generally away from a ridge-top graben and appear to be concentrated along 3 or 4 trenches with uphill facing scarps that are parallel with slope contours. A point just below the lowest trench has moved the most? a total of 8.3 cm horizontally and slightly downward from 1977 to 1999 relative to an assumed stable point on the periphery of the graben. Movements from 1997 to 1999 are less than 1 cm or within the error of measurement.

Colorado↗
USGS1999

Map showing locations of damaging landslides in Alameda County, California, resulting from 1997-98 El Nino rainstorms

Heavy rainfall associated with a strong El Nino caused over $150 million in landslide damage in the 10-county San Francisco Bay region during the winter and spring of 1998. A team of USGS scientists collected information on landslide locations and damage costs. In Alameda County more than $20 million in damages were assessed. Debris flows occurred in rural portions of the county, but were only responsible for $400 thousand in damages.

Miscellaneous Field Studies Map↗