Geology topics

Ilia Rochlin

Publications and source records attributed to Ilia Rochlin.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Partly cloudy with a chance of mosquitoes: Developing a flexible approach to forecasting mosquito populations

Climate-induced shifts in mosquito phenology and population structure have important implications for the health of humans and wildlife. The timing and intensity of mosquito interactions with infected and susceptible hosts are a primary determinant of vector-borne disease dynamics. Like most ectotherms, rates of mosquito development and corresponding phenological patterns are expected to change under shifting climates. However, developing accurate forecast of mosquito phenology under climate change that can be used to inform management programs remains challenging despite an abundance of available data. As climate change will have variable effects on mosquito demography and phenology across species it is vital that we identify associated traits which may explain the observed variation. Here, we review a suite of modeling approaches that could be applied to generate forecasts of mosquito activity under climate change and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the different approaches. We describe four primary life-history and physiological traits that can be used to constrain models and demonstrate how this prior information can be harnessed to develop a more general understanding of how mosquito activity will shift under changing climates. Combining a trait-based approach with appropriate modeling techniques can allow for the development of actionable, flexible, and multi-scale forecasts of mosquito population dynamics and phenology for diverse stakeholders.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS2022

Modeling of historical and current distributions of lone star tick, Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae), is consistent with ancestral range recovery

The lone star tick, Amblyomma americanum L., is a three-host hard tick notorious for aggressive feeding behavior. In the early to mid-20th century, this species’ range was mostly limited to the southern USA. Since the 1950s, A. americanum has been detected in many new localities in the western, northcentral, and northeastern regions of the country. To examine the influence of climate on this apparent expansion, we used historical (1748–1950) lone star locations from the literature and museum records to model areas suitable for this species based on past environmental conditions in the late 1800s – early 1900s. We then projected this model forward using present (2011–2020) climatic conditions and compared the two for evidence of climate-associated distributional shifts. A maximum entropy distribution or Maxent model was generated by using a priori selected climatic variables including temperature, precipitation, and vapor pressure deficit. Temperature and vapor pressure deficit were selected as the most important factors in creating a sensitive and specific model (success rate = 82.6 ± 6.1%) that had a good fit to the existing data and was significantly better than a random model [partial ROC (receiver operating characteristic) to AUC (area under the ROC curve) ratio = 1.97 ± 0.07, P < 0.001]. The present projected model was tested with an independent dataset of curated museum records (1952–2020) and found to be 95.6% accurate. Comparison of past and present models revealed > 98% A. americanum niche overlap. The model suggests that some areas along the western fringe are becoming less suitable for A. americanum , whereas areas in some Great Lakes and coastal northeastern regions are becoming more suitable, results that are compatible with possible effects of climate change. However, these changes are minor, and overall climate in North America does not appear to have changed in ways significant to A. americanum ’s distribution. These findings are consistent with an alternative hypothesis that recent changes in A. americanum ’s distribution are a result of this species re-occupying its historical range, driven predominantly by factors other than climate, such as shifts in land use and population densities of major hosts.

Experimental and Applied Acarology↗

USGS2010

The use of early summer mosquito surveillance to predict late summer West Nile virus activity

Utility of early-season mosquito surveillance to predict West Nile virus activity in late summer was assessed in Suffolk County, NY. Dry ice-baited CDC miniature light traps paired with gravid traps were set weekly. Maximum-likelihood estimates of WNV positivity, minimum infection rates, and % positive pools were generally well correlated. However, positivity in gravid traps was not correlated with positivity in CDC light traps. The best early-season predictors of WNV activity in late summer (estimated using maximum-likelihood estimates of Culex positivity in August and September) were early date of first positive pool, low numbers of mosquitoes in July, and low numbers of mosquito species in July. These results suggest that early-season entomological samples can be used to predict WNV activity later in the summer, when most human cases are acquired. Additional research is needed to establish which surveillance variables are most predictive and to characterize the reliability of the predictions.

New York↗

USGS2009

Distribution and abundance of host-seeking Culex species at three proximate locations with different levels of West Nile virus activity

Culex species were monitored at three proximate sites with historically different West Nile virus (WNV) activities. The site with human WNV transmission (epidemic) had the lowest abundance of the putative bridge vectors, Culex pipiens and Cx. salinarius . The site with horse cases but not human cases (epizootic) had the highest percent composition of Cx. salinarius , whereas the site with WNV-positive birds only (enzootic) had the highest Cx. pipiens abundance and percent composition. A total of 29 WNV-positive Culex pools were collected at the enzootic site, 17 at the epidemic site, and 14 at the epizootic site. Published models of human risk using Cx. pipiens and Cx. salinarius as the primary bridge vectors did not explain WNV activity at our sites. Other variables, such as additional vector species, environmental components, and socioeconomic factors, need to be examined to explain the observed patterns of WNV epidemic activity.

American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene↗